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A Presenta*on from Big Data 22 February 2013
Does Big Data = Big Insight?
Colin Strong GfK
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Does Big Data = Big Insight? Colin Strong MD Technology GfK UK
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
Big Data’s meteoric rise • Internet of things growing availability of Big Data • Expectations of Big Data high – twice as likely to substantially outperform their industry peers – big data expected to improve organisational performance by 41% over the next three years
• Should we be sceptical? • Does Big Data always ‘work’?
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
Big Data Assumptions • Big Data reflects our inner lives • We only need to observe to understand • Big Data remains inside the firewall • The individual is the only valid unit of measurement
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
The pitfalls • John Ioannidis: ‘Most published research findings are false’ • HBR: ‘There’s an odds-on chance that someone in your organization is making a poor decision on the basis of information that was enormously expensive to collect’ • Nate Silver: ‘Our predictions may be more prone to failure in the era of Big Data’
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
Think like a Bayesian • Take into account the context through prior probability • Consider for level of false positives • Probabilistic outcomes • Integrate multiple data sources
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
How to do the numbers: Prior probability Ini:al es:mate of service being successful
X
4%
Consumer survey indicates 50% consider service will be success
Y
50%
Probability of survey incorrectly indica:ng success
Z
5%
New informa*on is delivered:
Posterior probability Revised es:mate of likelihood of success
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
xy 29% Xy+z(1-‐x)
A manifesto for Smart Data
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
1: ‘Individual’ case study Use digital data to collect information concerning online behavior Integrate this with survey data to understand the ‘why’ Used successfully in purchase journey analysis
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
2: ‘Segment’ case study Conducted segmentation of BT prospects database Overlaid this with database of new customers Integrated with the tracking studies to model the segmentation onto survey data Created a propensity model to facilitate targeting
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
3: ‘Social’ case study Big Data allows us to start exploring relationships between individuals Allows us to start exploring different types of real-life social networks that have proved elusive Big Data provide us with tools that help us to understand the way in which these work More generally allows us to build our understanding of complex systems Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
4: Cultural analytics Analysis of massive cultural data sets and flows Publically accessible data sets increasingly digitised allowing much more access and analysis Ngram a leading tool, groups experiementing with images Exploring ways in which we can access flows of images GfK Visual Survey of Domestic Space 12 country, relational database of 18,000 photos
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
Thank you
Colin Strong Twitter: @colinstrong Personal blog: www.colinstrong.net Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013
Q&A
Colin Strong GfK
Ray Poynter Vision Cri:cal University
Colin Strong, GfK, UK Big Data, 22 February 2013