Bushveld Minerals
Pre-initiation of coverage
Vanadiferous titano-magnetite
Metals & mining 4 April 2013
AIM-listed Bushveld Minerals (BMN) is focused on developing its Mokopane iron-titanium-vanadium project in the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex in South Africa. BMN is in good company, as EVRAZ’s Highveld Steel and Vanadium is mining the same vanadiferous titano-
Price
11.8p
Market cap
£34m
magnetite horizon (the Main Magnetite Layer, or MML) at its Mapochs mine in the eastern limb of the Bushveld Complex. BMN has a JORC-compliant resource of 782Mt comprising 716Mt in the P-Q Zone (average grade of 32.6% Fe, 10.1% TiO2, and 0.18% V2O5 and 66Mt in the MML (average grade of 37.1% Fe, 9.2% TiO2 and 1.2% V2O5). The company’s focus is on completing a scoping study by Q213. Given that the Bushveld irontitanium-vanadium project is at early stage of development, we have chosen a peer group EV/resource valuation methodology based on a number of Fe-Ti-V explorers and developers. BMN has a low EV/t at
Net cash
US$1.49/£ £1.7m
Shares in issue
284.0m
Free float
10%
Code
BMN
Primary exchange
AIM
Secondary exchange
N/A
Share price performance
US$0.27/t compared with US$0.54/t for other Fe-Ti-V explorers and producers. We expect a PFS to be completed during Q114, at which time we will use the key project parameters to construct an NPV of the project.
Well-established mining district The Bushveld Complex is a well-established mining district with infrastructure in place. BMN’s project is 45km from an existing rail line with immediate access of 1-2Mt pa, upgradable to c 5Mt pa. The project is also close to existing coal fields, which could be utilised for power and/or coking coal. Amplats operates its Mogalakwena PGM mine about 10km from BMN’s project. More importantly, the Mapochs mine, operated by Highveld Steel and Vanadium (a subsidiary of £3.7bn EVRAZ) currently processes the same vanadium-rich MML on the eastern limb of the Bushveld Complex.
Robust resource with exploration upside Drill hole data from 5.5km of a traceable strike length of c 18km was used to define resources of 716Mt (containing 32.6% Fe) within the P-Q Zone and 66Mt (37.1% Fe) within the MML. Bushveld has an exploration target of 1Bt based on the correlation between soil samples and aeromagnetic survey results. With its defined resource already at 716mt based on c 30% of the traceable strike length, we believe BMN will be able to meet its target exploration of 1Bt.
Scoping study underway and PFS to follow BMN’s focus is on completing a scoping study on the iron project in Q213. This will incorporate results from detailed studies on infrastructure, hydrological, mining and market analysis. Management expects a completed PFS during Q114.
%
1m
3m
12m
Abs
(10.5)
2.2
(47.8)
Rel (local)
(11.2)
(4.3)
(53.2)
52-week high/low
11.5p
Business description Bushveld Minerals (BMN) is an AIM-listed junior iron and tin explorer in the mineral-rich Bushveld Complex in South Africa. Its flagship is an irontitanium-vanadium deposit in the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex.
Next events Scoping study Additional resource update
Q213 May 2013
Analysts Sheldon Modeland
+44 (0)20 3077 5726
Charles Gibson
+44 (0)20 3077 5724
[email protected]
Valuation: Discount to peers considering iron ore
22.5p
Edison profile page
Taking BMN’s attributable contained Fe resource of 166Mt (assuming 64% ownership) and multiplying by the peer group average of US$0.54/t gives an implied EV of US$89m, or £59m (20p per share). At a current share price of £0.12, BMN trades at a 40% discount to a valuation based on its Fe resource (20p). We will reconsider our valuation once key parameters have been defined.
Bushveld Minerals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
Investment summary Company description: Iron and tin ore explorer in South Africa BMN has two projects in the world’s largest layered igneous intrusion, the Bushveld Complex. The flagship project is the Bushveld iron-titanium-vanadium project located within the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex, which until recently has been relatively underexplored. Its secondary project is a past-producing tin mine also located in the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex.
Bushveld iron ore project The Bushveld iron-titanium-vanadium project comprises two mineralised horizons, the P-Q layer and the MML zone. Taken together, the project has a JORC-compliant resource of 782Mt comprising 716Mt with an average grade of 32.6% Fe, 10.1% TiO2 and 0.18% V2O5 within the P-Q Zone and 66Mt with an average grade of 37.1% Fe, 9.2% TiO2 and 1.24% V2O5. The P-Q Zone resource is based on diamond drill holes covering c 5.5km of a traceable strike length of c 18km. Bushveld is targeting a resource of 1Bt. A scoping study is currently underway and is expected to be completed during Q213.
Mokopane tin project Bushveld’s secondary project is the Mokopane tin property, which consists of one licence covering 13,422ha. Drilling one of five targets has defined a JORC-compliant resource of 5,995t. However, at this stage the company is working towards an additional resource on a second target for May 2013 and plans to consolidate additional resources in the area over the next 12-18 months.
Valuation: EV/resource Given the Bushveld iron ore project’s early stage of development, we have chosen an EV/resource valuation method based on several iron-titanium and vanadium explorers and developers. Considering only its iron resource, we arrive at a value for BMN of 20p per share when assuming the current JORC-compliant resource. We will reconsider our valuation method and include the titanium and vanadium by-products once the key parameters are defined in a PFS. At this stage, no value has been attributed to the company’s tin project given it is of lesser significance.
Financing required after scoping study BMN was incorporated on 5 January 2012 and listed on the AIM exchange on 12 March 2012. The initial public offering raised £5.6m at a placing price of 20p. We understand that after completion of the scoping study, the company expects to have a cash balance of c £800,000. In the absence of any substantive deal with a strategic partner after the completion of the scoping study, we believe the company will return to the market in mid-2013 to raise additional funds for completion of prefeasibility and feasibility studies, which we estimate to be c £15m combined.
Sensitivities and risks The early stage of development of Bushveld’s iron ore project means there is general geological and technical risk. Given the location, shallow dipping orientation and continuity of mineralisation in the P-Q and MML layers, we do not believe the project is subject to above-average geological, technical or political risks. Future commodity prices, Fe ore, Ti-slag and V-slag demand, as well as financing for the continued development of the project are significant risks to the project.
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Company description: Developing the Bushveld Fe-Ti-V project On 12 March 2012, BMN was listed on AIM with an initial public offering of £5.6m. The company is focused on developing its flagship South African iron-titanium-vanadium project within the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex, which is the world’s largest layered igneous complex, covering some 66,000 sq km. Within the same northern limb, BMN controls the prospecting rights to a pastproducing tin region comprising 13,422ha and has one of five targets with a JORC-compliant resource comprising 5,995t. Management’s focus is on completing the scoping study on the irontitanium-vanadium project by Q213. This will form the basis of a PFS to be completed in Q114. Exhibit 1: Corporate structure
Source: Company reports
Company ownership: Investing in Africa AIM-listed and Guernsey-based Obtala Resources (market cap £32.8m) is BMN’s largest shareholder, owning 46% of the issued share capital as part of its strategy of investing in natural resource opportunities in South Africa. In March 2012, BMN was established as a listed vehicle for both Greenhills Resources (tin project) and Bushveld Resources (Fe-Ti-V project). All exploration activities were initially conducted by Frontier Platinum, a management company 100%-owned by BMN. As part of the Black Economic Empowerment regulatory requirements, BMN has a strategic 64/36 agreement with Izingwe Capital. The agreement created Pamish Investment No 39, which holds the prospecting right (LP95PR) to the iron ore project covering most (>95%) of the currently defined resources. Prospecting right LP438PR covers the largely untested northern portion of the strike length of both the P-Q layer and the MML zone and is due to be transferred to a vehicle with ownership of 68.5/31.5 between BMN and Afro Multi Minerals. A separate agreement has been signed between BMN (74%) and Renetype (26%), which covers the prospecting right to the Mokopane tin project.
Location: Bushveld Complex, South Africa BMN has two projects in the world’s largest and economically important layered igneous intrusion (see Exhibit 2). The Bushveld Complex is host to c 80% of the world’s platinum group metal reserves, c 70% of its chromium reserves and c 30% of its titanium reserves. Given the vast size of this classic layered igneous intrusion, there is potential for additional resources of iron ore, titanium,
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tin, fluorspar, uranium and rare earth elements in the Bushveld Complex. Importantly, BMN’s assets are located in a well-established and prolific mining district. Exhibit 2: Bushveld Minerals’ project locations and simplified geology
Source: Bushveld Minerals
The Bushveld iron ore project is located in the Limpopo province and is c 10km from Amplat’s Mogalakwena platinum mine. The project comprises two consolidated prospecting rights covering 7,409ha, with the company owning 64% of one (Pamish Investments) and 68.5% of the other (Amaraka Investments). Bushveld’s BEE partners Izingwe Capital and Afro Multi Minerals own the remaining 36% and 31.5%, respectively. All the currently defined resources occur within the prospecting rights agreement between BMN and Izingwe Capital. Close to existing rail and with access to ports, the Bushveld iron ore project also lies in close proximity to coal deposits, which could ultimately be used for both power generation and metallurgical beneficiation. The rail line, which is a branch line that connects to the mainline leading to Mozambique and Richards Bay, has an immediate capacity of 1-2mt pa and is upgradable to c 5mt pa. The project area has a semi-arid climate with a pronounced dry spell during the winter months. A consistent water source will be a challenge and management is currently studying a proposed water pipeline from the Flag Boshelo dam.
Geology: Magmatic Fe-Ti-V ore deposits in the Bushveld complex The Bushveld Complex is the world’s largest and economically important layered igneous intrusion. Magma differentiation processes resulted in the formation of magnesium, chromium, nickel and precious metals in the lower zone of the complex, while the upper zone hosts iron, titanium, vanadium and phosphorus-bearing layers. Gentle tilting of the Bushveld Complex, together with erosion, has led to the exposure and shallow westerly dipping of the layered units (c 18 degrees). The 1,250m thick Upper Zone of the Rustenburg Layered Suite comprises layered anorthosite and gabbronorite with numerous disseminated to massive vanadiferous titano-magnetite layers. Many
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of these layers that characterise the Upper Zone and can be stratigraphically correlated between the Eastern, Western and Northern limbs. In the Eastern Limb, a high-vanadium magnetite layer known as the Main Magnetite Layer (MML) has been mined since the 1950s and is currently being mined at the Mapochs mine by Highveld Steel and Vanadium. This layer has also been identified in the Northern Limb. Above the MML the so-called P-Q Zone has also been identified. The P-Q Zone has an average thickness of 45m and comprises a series of disseminated to massive vanadiferous titano-magnetite layers. Several distinct mineralised units have been identified within the P-Q Zone and show remarkable continuity (Exhibits 3 and 4). While the P-Q Zone does not outcrop, a strongly weathered zone occurs c 2-5m below the surface and has an average thickness of c 25m. This layer may be amenable to metallurgical treatment without the need for fine milling. A largely massive magnetite layer (Q2) has an average thickness of 15m and grades over 40% Fe. A disseminated magnetite layer (Q3) occurs with widths between 20m and 30m and has average grades of c 32% Fe. Together, the Q2 and Q3 layers make up the bulk of the tonnage in the P-Q Zone (c 63%). In the hanging wall, a zone of phosphate mineralisation has been identified that is between 8m and 61m thick with grades of between 2% and 5% P2O5. The average thickness of the MML in the project area is 8-10m. The entire MML has an average vanadium content of 1.2-1.5% V2O5. These values are similar to the reported grades from the Mapochs mine. Exhibit 3: Drill hole location and section locations
Source: Bushveld Minerals
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Exhibit 4: Geological cross-sections of P-Q Zone
Source: Company reports. Note: Sections A and B are drawn with upper contact of P-Q layer as datum.
Resource The Bushveld iron-titanium-vanadium project has an updated (8 March 2013) JORC-compliant resource estimate of 716Mt (comprising 48% indicated and 52% inferred) with a weighted average grade of 32.7% Fe, 10.1% TiO2 and 0.2% V2O5 defined within the P-Q Zone and including the weathered portion. Additional inferred resources (JORC-compliant) from the MML include 66Mt grading at 37.1% Fe (cut-off of 40% Fe2O3), 9.2% TiO2, 1.24% V2O5 (see Exhibits 5 and 6). The updated resource model includes the results from the recently completed 1,038m drill programme that focused on the oxidised and weathered portions of the P-Q Zone. The purpose of this programme was to determine the depth of weathering, quantifying the tonnage and grade of the Timagnetite in the weathered horizon and identifying the subcrop position of the P-Q Zone. Due to the lower specific gravity of the weathered zone the overall resource has been lowered by 5% to 716Mt. The weathered portion of the P-Q Zone has a JORC-compliant indicated resource of 38Mt grading at 32.7% Fe and 9.1% TiO2. The total resource is based on 68 drill holes totalling 7,725m drilled along a strike length of 5.5km. Drilling results show strong stratigraphic correlation with the entire package dipping at c 18 degrees towards the west (see Exhibit 4). Soil sampling and aeromagnetic survey data correlation suggest that the strike length could be traceable over an additional 10km.
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Exhibit 5: Updated resources for P-Q Zone Layer Q3 Q2 Q1 PMAG PFWDISS* Q3 Inferred Q2 Q1 PMAG PFWDISS* Total inferred Total indicated Total resources Indicated
Tonnes (Mt) 138.61 80.07 26.13 34.1 67.28 139.03 92.64 23.42 38.28 76.51 369.88 346.19 716.07
SG (g/cm3) 3.61 3.95 3.56 3.59 3.38 3.59 3.99 3.64 3.58 3.37 3.65 3.64 3.64
Fe (%) Fe2O3 (%) 31.7 41.9 32.5 32.4 26.9 30.2 40.2 32.7 30.6 26.8 32.2 33.3 32.7
45.5 59.1 45.6 45.4 38.5 43.3 57.5 46.8 43.7 38.3 46.1 47.3 46.7
Fe Metal (Mt) 36.4 25.56 5.76 8.05 12.81 40.31 35.72 7.34 11.22 19.64 29.8 24.2 27.1
TiO2 (%)
V2O5 (%)
SiO2 (%)
Al2O3 (%)
P2O5 (%)
S (%)
9.5 14.6 10 9.6 7.1 8.8 14.1 10.8 9.8 6.9 10.0 10.3 10.1
0.11 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.22 0.09 0.23 0.27 0.26 0.21 0.2 0.2 0.2
25.9 13.6 23.1 22.4 30.1 28.3 15.3 22.2 23.5 30.2 24.6 23.3 24.0
9.7 6.9 10.2 10.9 12.8 10.3 7.6 10.6 11.5 12.8 10.3 9.8 10.1
0.07 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.13 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.1 0.0 0.1
0.49 0.27 0.24 0.67 0.33 0.61 0.55 0.36 0.74 0.43 0.6 0.4 0.5
Source: Bushveld Minerals as of 8 March 2013. Note: Cut-off resources are based on stratigraphy. Indicated resources are based on a 200m depth from surface and inferred resources are based on 400m depth from surface. * = Layer reported at a 35% Fe2O3 cut-off.
Exhibit 6: Resources for the MML MML Inferred
Cut-off (Fe2O3 %) 40 45 50 55
Tonnage (Mt) 66.21 66.15 51.05 17.00
SG (g/cm3) 3.83 3.83 3.84 3.88
Fe %
Fe2O3 %
Ti02 %
V205 %
SiO2 %
Al203
P2O5 %
37.1 37.1 37.9 39.5
53.1 53.1 54.2 56.4
9.2 9.2 9.4 9.7
1.24 1.24 1.27 1.32
17.9 17.9 17.0 15.3
11.1 11.1 10.9 10.3
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Source: Bushveld Minerals
Metallurgical tests: Optimal recoveries at coarse grind fractions Metallurgical test work on the P-Q Zone has identified recoveries and concentrate grades for T
different grind sizes. The P-Q massive ore zone has as much as 85.6% recoveries for 54.8% Fe based on grain size fractions between 500µm and 106µm (Exhibit 8). Additionally, testing at coarse sizes (-12mm+1mm and -6mm+1mm) has shown the potential for pre-concentration of massive ore through dense media separation (DMS). Grades of 49-50% Fe with over 80% recoveries are T achievable. The disseminated zone has 63.1% recoveries for a 55.0% Fe based on grain sizes between 500µm and 106µm (Exhibit 9). Based on the grades and recoveries listed in the table below, the company could produce iron concentrate as a saleable product. Another scenario is for BMN to add on value through the onsite smelting of pig iron and the production of titanium and vanadium slags (Exhibit 10). The products of the pig iron process include vanadium slag, which is used in the alloy industry, and titanium slag, which is used extensively in the aerospace and aviation industry. Given the current prices of pig iron (US$400/t), vanadium pentoxide V2O5 (US$15,000/t) and titanium ore ilmenite (US$300/t) and depending on the results of detailed metallurgical testing and a mine scheduling, the by-products could significantly enhance the economics of the project. We will be in a better position to evaluate the by-product benefits once the scoping study and PFS have been completed.
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Exhibit 7: Metallurgical test-work on P-Q massive magnetite ore
Source: Company reports
Exhibit 8: Metallurgical test work on P-Q disseminated magnetite ore
Source: Company reports
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Exhibit 9: Example of process flow sheet for pig iron, titanium slag and vanadium slag
Source: Baobab Resources report
Peer group comparison The table below shows BMN compared with other African explorers and developers. The peer group average EV/contained Fe resource multiple is US$0.54/t. BMN’s current EV/contained Fe resource value is US$0.28/t. At BMN’s target resource of 1Bt, the value would be US$0.22/t (assuming a consistent grade of 33.1% Fe). Notwithstanding the potential value attributable to the titanium and vanadium resources, at this stage we are comparing only the iron content within the peer group. As more detailed parameters become available we will consider the additional value of the titanium and vanadium resources. Within the peer group, BMN is most similar to Baobab in terms of resource size, grade and potential end-products produced. Baobab’s project is located in the Tete region of Mozambique. With a completed PFS, Baobab’s Tete project has an EV/contained Fe resource of US$0.44/t. Exhibit 10: EV per contained Fe comparison
TNG Limited Yellow Rock West Melville Forge Resources Ironveld Baobab Weighted average Bushveld Minerals
Price (US$)
Market cap (US$m)
EV (US$m)
0.11 0.17 0.15 0.20 0.07 0.32
49.1 6.2 5.3 16.4 18.6 94.7
38.6 4.7 3.6 34.6 18.6 92.9
Attributable resource (Mt) 160.0 125.8 70.3 456.0 59.1 617.9
0.18
50.4
45.69
500.7
Fe (%)
TiO2 (%)
V2O5 (%)
23.7 32.3 29.6 45.0 36.4 33.8 35.9 33.1
5.3 8.6 10.9 13.7 10.2 12.5 11.6 10.0
0.29 0.70 0.14 0.64 0.81 0.40 0.49 0.28
Contained EV/Resourc Fe (Mt) e (contained Fe) 37.9 1.02 40.6 0.12 20.8 0.17 205.2 0.17 21.5 0.86 208.8 0.44 158.8 0.54 165.6 0.28
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports. Note: Priced as at 03 April 2013.
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Sensitivities As with most early-stage exploration projects, there is inherent geological and technical risk, as well as geopolitical risk with projects in developing countries. We do not believe BMN’s iron-titaniumvanadium project in South Africa is subject to above-average risk on these fronts. Since the company has not yet completed a detailed engineering study, we are currently unable to identify specific recovery or operational risks. However, there are some infrastructure constraints. The rail line located near the project has a current capacity limit of 1-2Mt pa and will need to be upgraded. Additional capacity could be possible through the Transnet investment programme, which is expected to invest ZAR300bn to expand the rail and port infrastructure capacity through South Africa over the next seven years. Given the semi-arid climate of the project area, a continuous supply of water will be a concern. BMN is currently studying the feasibility of a proposed water pipeline from the Flag Boshielo Dam. A lack of investment in South Africa’s power infrastructure has led to serious power supply shortages, which is having a negative impact on new mining developments. Recently, Eskom offered to buy back power from the country’s energy intensive producers in an attempt to ease the already strained grid. BMN is currently studying the feasibility of self-sufficient power generation given the project’s proximity to existing coal deposits.
Valuation Taking BMN’s attributable contained Fe resource of 166Mt (assuming 64% ownership) and multiplying it by the peer group average of US$0.54/t gives an implied EV of US$89m, or £59m (at US$1.5/£), which gives an implied per share value of £0.20. At a current share price of £0.12, BMN is trading at a 40% discount on a valuation based purely on its Fe resource. Upon completion of the prefeasibility study in Q114 we will reconsider our valuation by constructing a NPV of the project which will include the iron, titanium and vanadium resources of the Mokopane project.
Financials BMN was incorporated on 5 January 2012 and listed on the AIM exchange on 12 March 2012. The initial public offering raised £5.6m at a placing price of 20p. We understand that after completion of the scoping study, the company will have a cash balance of c £800,000. In the absence of any substantive deal with a strategic partner following completion of the scoping study, we estimate BMN will return to the market in mid-2013 to raise additional funds for the completion of both a prefeasibility and feasibility study. We estimate an additional funding of US$15m to complete both studies.
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Contact details Block A, Ground Floor 24 Fricker Road Illovo, 2116 Johannesburg South Africa +27 11 268 6555 www.bushveldminerals.com
Revenue by geography N/A
CAGR metrics EPS 2010-14e EPS 2012-14e EBITDA 2010-14e EBITDA 2012-14e Sales 2010-14e Sales 2012-14e
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Profitability metrics ROCE 2013e Avg ROCE 2010-14e ROE 2013e Gross margin 2013e Operating margin 2013e Gr mgn / Op mgn 2013e
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Balance sheet metrics Gearing 2013e Interest cover 2013e CA/CL 2013e Stock days 2013e Debtor days 2013e Creditor days 2013e
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sensitivities evaluation Litigation/regulatory Pensions Currency Stock overhang Interest rates Oil/commodity prices
Management team CEO: Fortune Mojapelo Mr Mojapelo is co-founder of several junior mining companies, including Bushveld Minerals, New Horizon (iron ore) and Lemur Resources.
Non-executive chairman : Ian Watson Mr Watson was the former CEO of Platmin Limited, International Ferro Metals and Northam Platinum. He was also a consulting engineer at Gold Fields of South Africa. Mr Watson is currently on the board of Shaft Sinkers and is a trained mining engineer.
CFO: Geoff Sproule Mr Sproule is a charted accountant and former partner of Deloitte and Touche. He is also a director of civil engineering group CIVCON. Principal shareholders Obtala Resources Oak Nominees (on behalf of Mineral Wealth International) Oak Nominees (on behalf of VML Resources) Blackrock Investment
(%) 46.0 29.6 11.5 7.0
Companies named in this report Amplats, EVRAZ Highveld Steel and Vanadium
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Berlin +49 (0)30 2088 9525 Friedrichstrasse 95Minerals Bushveld 10117 Berlin Germany
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