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CONFIDENTIAL MR.

Review o f E x p e n d i t u r e

Programmes

Chief Secretary's proposals

in C(79)ll

guidelines of





LANKE16TER

The

I

for public

the p r e s e n t

expenditure

Government.

The



set

effectively

d e c i s i o n s d u r i n g the

P r i m e M i n i s t e r may



lifetime

like

therefore

t o have some CPRS comments.

2.

The

Government's o b j e c t i v e i s t o b r i n g e x p e n d i t u r e

the o u t t u r n o f require plans is

1977-78.

f o r t h a t y e a r s e t out

to i d e n t i f y

implications

of

The

The

Law

small ( i i i )

The

and

Order

be

and

and

Health.

adequately

b r i n g out

Order



reductions

( o r the

are



the





assumptions:



the p e r i o d i n l i n e w i t h

our



programme, w h i c h

for a

grow by

3 per

plans.

spending

Personal

Social

r e d u c t i o n on

t h a t " i t i s not

Public

S e r v i c e s (mainly

cuts i n t h i s

the p e r i o d .

But

with

intention

Government's

the to

Manifesto reduce

administrative costs

the o v e r a l l

be

i f they

unlikely

could

o u t l o o k w o u l d be not

di fferent.

C ^ *J T• H F M TIAI



unchanged.

programme seem even



This implies

the p r e v i o u s

our

unchanged.

S e r v i c e s programme

rate c o l l e c t i o n ) w i l l

Significant

achieved,

be

i n the H e a l t h S e r v i c e " .

t a x and

during

the p e r i o d , w i l l

I t i s , however, c o m p a t i b l e

which s a i d

Other

allows

h e l d at the c u r r e n t l e v e l .

a significant

of

proposed

cent

i n c r e a s e over

Health

will

( i v )

method

commitment.

NATO ( i i )

Government's

i n C(79)10 - i f these

and

following

throughout

The

per cent

D e f e n c e programme w i l l

a year

1982-83 w o u l d

say,



approach.

have made t h e

( i )

t o \7\

the p a p e r does not this

by,

i n Cmnd 7439.

f o r D e f e n c e , Law

view

this

i n the p r e v i o u s

i n O p p o s i t i o n - s e t out

In o u r

We

£ 10b

s a v i n g s o f up

g r e a t e r ) except

4.

achieve

a r e d u c t i o n o f about

identified

3.

To

to

back

1

(v)

be



very







CONFIDENTIAL - 2 ­

( v )

For a l l other fully

estimate

i n l i n e with

5.

We

with

a range o f o p t i o n s

1982-83. In

But

programmes s a v i n g s w i l l

t h a t on

these

proposals.

assumptions M i n i s t e r s w i l l to not v e r y

not p r e s e n t

them w i t h



be

presented £10b i n

much more than a realistic



choice.

particular:

( i )

There i s l i t t l e , to

allow

the f i g u r e s .

no

real

the C h i e f S e c r e t a r y ' s provision

for this

17 4 p e r c e n t roughly

( i i )

The

not

have

and

there

control

from which rigorous

formula

maximum c u t s

of t h i s

that l o c a l

i s now

will

be

to £10b

r e q u i r e d to a l l o w

c o u l d not be e n f o r c e d .

t h e o p t i o n s would

cent

i n 1981-82 and 25 p e r c e n t



does



authorities

over



Local



£13b.



genuine o p t i o n s

i n 1982-83, a more

f o r programmes i n w h i c h

As a minimum, we

need to be 7J p e r c e n t

would

i n 1980-81,

suggest

15 p e r

i n 1982-83.

(signed)

1979



expenditure

t h e r e f o r e , i f M i n i s t e r s a r e t o have amounting

that

local

guidelines.

current expenditure

that

23 May

risk.

t h e Government

f o l l o w t h e Government's

to c h o o s e s a v i n g s



by

is unrealistic,

a l s o assumes

the bulk

i s no c e r t a i n t y

authority

In o u r view,

over

existing

be r e d u c e d

S e r v i c e s , and o t h e r But



But

be made i n E d u c a t i o n ,

o f 17i per c e n t w i l l

expenditure.



into

in itself.

t a r g e t i s at

formula



In

are b u i l t

assumes t h a t

If this

£2-2Jb o f t h e £10b

authority

will

formula

i n 1982-83.

other Environmental

social

Benefit.

be a l l r i g h t

programme w i l l

Chief Secretary's

savings

Child

improvements

T h i s may

plans

i n t h e Cmnd 7439

p r i c e - i n d e x a t i o n of

benefits, including

o t h e r words, f\

i f anything,

f o r more than

security

6.

identified

the C h i e f S e c r e t a r y ' s

amounting

this w i l l

be



CONFIDENTIAL

S i r Kenneth

Berrill