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CONFIDENTIAL MR.
Review o f E x p e n d i t u r e
Programmes
Chief Secretary's proposals
in C(79)ll
guidelines of
LANKE16TER
The
I
for public
the p r e s e n t
expenditure
Government.
The
set
effectively
d e c i s i o n s d u r i n g the
P r i m e M i n i s t e r may
lifetime
like
therefore
t o have some CPRS comments.
2.
The
Government's o b j e c t i v e i s t o b r i n g e x p e n d i t u r e
the o u t t u r n o f require plans is
1977-78.
f o r t h a t y e a r s e t out
to i d e n t i f y
implications
of
The
The
Law
small ( i i i )
The
and
Order
be
and
and
Health.
adequately
b r i n g out
Order
reductions
( o r the
are
the
assumptions:
the p e r i o d i n l i n e w i t h
our
programme, w h i c h
for a
grow by
3 per
plans.
spending
Personal
Social
r e d u c t i o n on
t h a t " i t i s not
Public
S e r v i c e s (mainly
cuts i n t h i s
the p e r i o d .
But
with
intention
Government's
the to
Manifesto reduce
administrative costs
the o v e r a l l
be
i f they
unlikely
could
o u t l o o k w o u l d be not
di fferent.
C ^ *J T• H F M TIAI
unchanged.
programme seem even
This implies
the p r e v i o u s
our
unchanged.
S e r v i c e s programme
rate c o l l e c t i o n ) w i l l
Significant
achieved,
be
i n the H e a l t h S e r v i c e " .
t a x and
during
the p e r i o d , w i l l
I t i s , however, c o m p a t i b l e
which s a i d
Other
allows
h e l d at the c u r r e n t l e v e l .
a significant
of
proposed
cent
i n c r e a s e over
Health
will
( i v )
method
commitment.
NATO ( i i )
Government's
i n C(79)10 - i f these
and
following
throughout
The
per cent
D e f e n c e programme w i l l
a year
1982-83 w o u l d
say,
approach.
have made t h e
( i )
t o \7\
the p a p e r does not this
by,
i n Cmnd 7439.
f o r D e f e n c e , Law
view
this
i n the p r e v i o u s
i n O p p o s i t i o n - s e t out
In o u r
We
£ 10b
s a v i n g s o f up
g r e a t e r ) except
4.
achieve
a r e d u c t i o n o f about
identified
3.
To
to
back
1
(v)
be
very
CONFIDENTIAL - 2
( v )
For a l l other fully
estimate
i n l i n e with
5.
We
with
a range o f o p t i o n s
1982-83. In
But
programmes s a v i n g s w i l l
t h a t on
these
proposals.
assumptions M i n i s t e r s w i l l to not v e r y
not p r e s e n t
them w i t h
be
presented £10b i n
much more than a realistic
choice.
particular:
( i )
There i s l i t t l e , to
allow
the f i g u r e s .
no
real
the C h i e f S e c r e t a r y ' s provision
for this
17 4 p e r c e n t roughly
( i i )
The
not
have
and
there
control
from which rigorous
formula
maximum c u t s
of t h i s
that l o c a l
i s now
will
be
to £10b
r e q u i r e d to a l l o w
c o u l d not be e n f o r c e d .
t h e o p t i o n s would
cent
i n 1981-82 and 25 p e r c e n t
does
authorities
over
Local
£13b.
genuine o p t i o n s
i n 1982-83, a more
f o r programmes i n w h i c h
As a minimum, we
need to be 7J p e r c e n t
would
i n 1980-81,
suggest
15 p e r
i n 1982-83.
(signed)
1979
expenditure
t h e r e f o r e , i f M i n i s t e r s a r e t o have amounting
that
local
guidelines.
current expenditure
that
23 May
risk.
t h e Government
f o l l o w t h e Government's
to c h o o s e s a v i n g s
by
is unrealistic,
a l s o assumes
the bulk
i s no c e r t a i n t y
authority
In o u r view,
over
existing
be r e d u c e d
S e r v i c e s , and o t h e r But
But
be made i n E d u c a t i o n ,
o f 17i per c e n t w i l l
expenditure.
into
in itself.
t a r g e t i s at
formula
In
are b u i l t
assumes t h a t
If this
£2-2Jb o f t h e £10b
authority
will
formula
i n 1982-83.
other Environmental
social
Benefit.
be a l l r i g h t
programme w i l l
Chief Secretary's
savings
Child
improvements
T h i s may
plans
i n t h e Cmnd 7439
p r i c e - i n d e x a t i o n of
benefits, including
o t h e r words, f\
i f anything,
f o r more than
security
6.
identified
the C h i e f S e c r e t a r y ' s
amounting
this w i l l
be
CONFIDENTIAL
S i r Kenneth
Berrill