crossrail

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CROSSRAIL Summary Transport Case Report February 2005

Prepared for:

Prepared by:

Cross London Rail Links Limited 1, Butler Place London SW1H 0PT

Steer Davies Gleave 28-32 Upper Ground London SE1 9PD +44 (0)20 7919 8500 www.steerdaviesgleave.com

Crossrail Summary Transport Case

Contents

Page

1.

INTRODUCTION

1

2.

PRESENT DAY CONDITIONS ON LONDON’S RAIL NETWORKS

3

Overview

3

Trends Affecting Travel in London and the South East

4

Trip Lengths

8

3.

4.

Deficiencies in the Transport Network

12

The Market for Rail Travel

13

Current Levels of Crowding

16

Congestion on the Road Network

20

Summary of the Present Position

21

LONDON’S RAIL NETWORKS IN THE FUTURE

23

Overview

23

Where People Will Live

23

Where People Will Work

29

The Future Market for Travel

35

Planned Improvements to the Rail Networks

35

Future Overcrowding on the Rail Networks

37

The Role of Buses

39

Conclusions

40

THE TRANSPORT IMPACTS OF CROSSRAIL

43

Project Definition

43

Transport Effects of Crossrail

44

Impact of Crossrail on the Underground and DLR

47

Impact on National Rail Network

49

FIGURES Figure 2.1

Change in London's Population 1961-2016

4

Figure 2.2

Change in the Population of South East England (outside London) 1961-2016

5

Figure 2.3

Employment In London 1971-2001

5

Figure 2.4

Bus and Underground Passenger Kilometres in London since 1971 (millions) – TfL Service performance data

6

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

Figure 2.5

Underground and National Rail Passenger KM in the South East (Millions) – TfL Service performance data

6

Figure 2.6

Public transport mode share in London 1991/2 - 2002/3

7

Figure 2.7

Distribution of Average Length of Bus and Underground Journeys 2002-03

8

Figure 2.8

Rail/Underground Mode Share for Journeys to Work 2001

9

Figure 2.9

Central London Arrivals By Rail

14

Figure 2.10 Rail/Underground Mode Share for Journeys To Work in London and The South East

17

Figure 3.1

Location of Residence for People Working in Central London 2003

25

Figure 3.2

Indicative Estimates of the Growth In Homes in and around London

27

Figure 3.3

Distribution of Employment in London 2003

31

Figure 3.4

Changes in Employment Levels 2001-2016

33

Figure 3.5

Forecast Underground Network Crowding 2016

41

Figure 4.1

Changes in Underground Passenger Flows with Crossrail (AM Peak)

51

TABLES Table 2.1

Summary of Most Popular Morning Peak Destinations in London

Table 2.2

Most Popular Origins of Rail/Underground Trips to Central London (i.e. >2% market share)

Table 3.1

Changes in Flows into Central Cordon (2001-2016) AM Peak

Table 3.2

Increases in Capacity at Central Cordon 2001-2016 (AM Peak)

Table 3.3

Increase in Crowding on the Underground Network (2001 and 2016)

Table 4.1

Peak Hour Network Wide Capacity Improvements In 2016 With Crossrail

Table 4.2

Changes in Morning Peak Hour Flows Across Central Area Cordon in 2016 with Crossrail

Table 4.3

Changes in Underground Boarders and Crowded Hours with Crossrail AM Peak Period

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Table 4.4

Crowding Reduction On The Underground Network with Crossrail (2016)

Table 4.5

Changes in Boarders and Crowded Hours with Crossrail

DISCLAIMER NOTICE This report has been produced for Cross London Rail Links (CLRL) Limited. It should only be used in association with the CLRL project for the Crossrail project. Projections of traffic and revenue contained within this document represent Steer Davies Gleave’s best estimates. While they are not precise forecasts, they do represent, in our view, a reasonable expectation for the future, based on the most credible information available as of the date of this report. However, the estimates contained within this document rely on numerous assumptions and judgements and are influenced by external circumstances that can change quickly and can affect income. In addition, it has been necessary to base much of this analysis on data collected by third parties. This has been independently checked whenever possible. However. Steer Davies Gleave does not guarantee the accuracy of this third party data.

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Contents

Crossrail Summary Transport Case

1.

INTRODUCTION

1.1

This report summarises the transport impacts of Crossrail. The report considers the problems and opportunities underlying the need for additional capacity on the rail network serving London and the South East region, in addition to presenting the impacts of the preferred Crossrail scheme in terms of providing solutions to the identified problems.

1.2

This document focuses specifically on the transport impacts arising from Crossrail, particularly the impact of the scheme on the rest of the rail network. Other work has been commissioned by CLRLL to specifically examine the wider policy and economic effects of the scheme and is reported elsewhere.

1.3

After this introductory section, the rest of the report is structured as follows: •

•

•

Section 2 sets out the present day conditions on London’s rail transport networks, in terms of the historic trends of travel in London and the South East of England and levels of current demand. Section 3 discusses the drivers of change in the future, including the distribution of growth in homes and jobs, planned capacity increases on the transport networks, and the effects this will have on overcrowding on London’s railways. Section 4 outlines the transport impact of Crossrail, particularly with reference to the scheme’s impacts on the National Rail, DLR and London Underground networks.

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2.

PRESENT DAY CONDITIONS ON LONDON’S RAIL NETWORKS Overview

2.1

Over the past 20 years from the mid 1980’s, both the population of London and the number of people working there has been increasing, although the levels have yet to reach the record numbers of the 1950’s. In planning to accommodate the increased demand for travel that derives from this trend, there has been a view in some quarters that the transport network would be able to cope, as it had done in the 1950’s.

2.2

However, the development of London and its transport networks over the past 40 years illustrates something of a dichotomy. Although fewer people live and work in London than did in the mid-1950’s, when these reached their historic peak, London’s roads and public transport are as busy, if not busier than they were then. There are a number of reasons for this, including: •

•

•

The amount of travel as a whole has increased dramatically: Although the number of people living in the UK as a whole has only increased by about 18% over the past 50 years, the amount of personal travel has increased 3½ fold. This means that each person, on average, travels almost three times further in a year than people did 50 years ago. The average distance of individual trips has increased: People now are able and are prepared to travel much further to access jobs and leisure facilities than in the past. The need to find affordable homes in the south east, and the attraction of better-paid jobs in London has driven this trend. Fundamental lifestyle changes: There has been a shift away from traditional “95” jobs to more flexible work patterns, and an increase in the range of job types available over time. This has been reflected in travel patterns, and seen a spreading of peak flows across longer periods of the day from the traditional “rush hour”.

The combination of these factors has made heavy rail services more popular as a means of travelling to and from London. The increasing levels of travel have worsened traffic congestion, traffic speeds have fallen, and it is increasingly more difficult to park in London. These factors have seen the proportion of people travelling into London in the morning peak by rail (either National Rail services or on the Underground) increase consistently, from 65% in the 1950’s to 77% today. 2.3

Road traffic congestion has also become increasingly worse in London, leading to the introduction of the central London congestion charging zone in 2003. The introduction of the congestion charge was intended to reduce congestion, not only within, but also beyond the charging zone. Road users now experience quicker and more reliable journey times, and traffic queues have reduced. However, it was only possible to implement because 85 per cent of people coming to central London in the morning peak travel by Underground, rail or bus.

2.4

These factors have meant that London’s transport networks experience serious overcrowding on a daily basis. Some of this is exacerbated by longer-term shortcomings of the networks, which have become more serious as the networks become busier. In this section, some of the factors that contribute to the present transport conditions are examined as follows:

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

•

The historic trends affecting travel in terms of population and employment are discussed, together with the effects these have on travel demand. The importance of increasing trip lengths, and the adequacy of international connections are also examined. The deficiencies in the existing transport network are specifically identified, and the ways in which these affect its ability to deal with increased demand efficiently is examined. The market for rail travel resulting from these trends is discussed, highlighting the importance of rail journeys for work trips, and identifies the key corridors where demand is highest. The current levels of crowding on parts of the National Rail and Underground networks are identified, specifically indicating where these are in excess of acceptable standards. For a full picture, congestion on buses and the road network is also briefly discussed.

•

•

•

Trends Affecting Travel in London and the South East Population

2.5

Population in London reached a peak during the 1950’s, but has steadily dispersed over a wider area since then. This has been both as a reaction to increasing congestion and in response to deliberate planning policies aimed at dispersing the population, such as the designation of the New Towns at Stevenage, Harlow, Basildon etc. However, more recently, this trend for population decline has reversed in London, and the present trend is upwards again. Trends in London population since 1961 are indicated in Figure 2.1 below: FIGURE 2.1

CHANGE IN LONDON'S POPULATION 1961-2016 Actual

Forecast

8,100

7,900

Population ('000s)

7,700

7,500

7,300

7,100

6,900

6,700

20 15

20 13

20 11

20 09

20 07

20 05

20 03

20 01

19 99

19 97

19 95

19 93

19 91

19 89

19 87

19 85

19 83

19 81

19 79

19 77

19 75

19 73

19 71

19 69

19 67

19 65

19 63

19 61

6,500

Year

Source: GLA (2002) – Planning for London’s Growth: Statistical Basis for the Mayor’sSpatial Development Strategy - pp.4.

In contrast, because of dispersion, the population in the rest of the south-east has grown steadily since the 1960’s. Although this rate has recently declined (in part due to population growth in London), it is predicted to continue to steadily grow, albeit at a less faster rate than previously. This is illustrated in Figure 2.2 on the following page.

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FIGURE 2.2

CHANGE IN THE POPULATION OF SOUTH EAST ENGLAND (OUTSIDE LONDON) 1961-2016 Actual

Forecast

8,000

Population ('000s)

7,500

7,000

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Year

.

Source: Office of National Statistics

Employment

2.6

Employment in central London also reached a peak just after the war period, and declined steadily during the 1960’s and 1970’s. From the mid 1980’s however, central London employment began to increase again, chiefly through growth in the finance and business services sector. The number of central London jobs declined rapidly again after 1989, but more recently the trend has again been for strong growth, with overall employment in London reaching more than 4.5 million in 2001. The trends in central London employment are illustrated in Figure 2.3 below: FIGURE 2.3

EMPLOYMENT IN LONDON 1971-2001

4900

4700

4500

4300

4100

3900

3700

3500

Ye a r

Source: Adapted from GLA (2002) – Planning for London’s Growth: Statistical Basis for the Mayor’sSpatial Development Strategy pp.9.

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Travel Demand

2.7

Throughout this period, the amount of personal travel has increased significantly. More specifically, there has been a significant increase in average length of commuting trips over time. Data from the National Travel Survey show that between 1989/1991 and 1999/2001, this figure increased by 17%.

2.8

There also have been fundamental shifts in the relative share of transport modes used for commuting to and from central London over time due to lifestyle changes in how people live and work. Figures 3.4 to 3.6 below indicate some of these. FIGURE 2.4

BUS AND UNDERGROUND PASSENGER KILOMETRES IN LONDON SINCE 1971 (MILLIONS) – TFL SERVICE PERFORMANCE DATA

8,000 7,000 6,000

pkm (m)

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

19 85 /8 19 6 87 /8 19 8 89 /9 19 0 91 /9 19 2 93 /9 19 4 95 /9 19 6 97 /9 19 8 99 /0 20 0 01 /0 2 2002/03

19 83

19 81

19 79

19 77

19 75

19 73

19 71

0

Bus

FIGURE 2.5

Underground

UNDERGROUND AND NATIONAL RAIL PASSENGER KM IN THE SOUTH EAST (MILLIONS) – TFL SERVICE PERFORMANCE DATA

130

Index 1988/89 = 100

120

110

100

90

Underground

3 20

02

/0

/0

2

1 20

01

/0

0 20

00

/0

9

99 19

98 19

19

97

/9

/9

8

7 /9

6

96 19

19

95

/9

/9

5

4

94 19

93 19

19

92

/9

/9

3

2 /9

1

91 19

19

90

/9

/9 89 19

19

88

/8

0

9

80

National Rail in the South East

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FIGURE 2.6

PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODE SHARE IN LONDON 1991/2 - 2002/3

%40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

Bus

2.9

LU/ DLR

NR

20 02 /0 3

20 01 /0 2

20 00 /0 1

19 99 /0 0

19 98 /9 9

19 97 /9 8

19 96 /9 7

19 95 /9 6

19 94 /9 5

19 93 /9 4

19 92 /9 3

19 91 /9 2

0

TOTAL

Key points to note regarding the mode choice for journeys in London are that: •

•

Bus use in London reached its peak in 1950 after which it declined until 1980, when it slowly began to increase again.1. More recently, in the past 10 years, bus passenger volumes have risen over 36% in London and are now at their highest levels for over 30 years2. This is in no small part due to improved service levels associated with introduction of the congestion charge. Following a decline in the use of National Rail and Underground services in London during the 1970s, there was a sharp increase from 1983 with the introduction of Travelcards, zonal fares, improved services and better economic conditions. This increase continued through the 1980s and 1990s, although dipping somewhat during the recession of the 1990s. In more recent years, bus travel has continued to increase although Underground usage has levelled off overall3.

2.10

Other factors regarding trip characteristics that influence modal choice are discussed further in Paragraphs 2.13 below.

2.11

There also have been significant spatial shifts in the patterns of journeys to work, including: • •

Growth of commuting to Docklands since 1980’s. Growth of “reverse commuting” to major centres in the south east such as Milton Keynes, Guildford etc..

1

Transport for London (2003) – The Case for Investing in London’s Buses - p.12.

2

Transport for London (2003) – London Travel Report.

3

Transport for London (2003) – London Travel Report.

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Trip Lengths Rail

2.12

Commuter rail trips into central London range from relatively short trips, particularly from inner London areas not served by the Underground, to longer-distance trips from as far afield as Southampton, Bristol or even further. However, 50% of all rail trips terminating in London in the peak originate within the GLA area. A further 19% come from inner suburban areas outside London (the “London Region Inner Suburban” or LRIS area), and 25% of trips come from areas beyond this in the South East or East of England Regions. Only 6% of trips arriving in the peak are truly long-distance trips coming from beyond these areas. This pattern is illustrated in Figure 2.8 on the following page. Bus and Underground

2.13

Bus is used mainly for short journeys of 5 kms or less whereas the Underground is used across a wider range of distances4. In 2002-3, The maximum trip length by bus was about 14.5km, while for the Underground this was more than 30km. The average distance of trip was 4km for bus and 8km for Underground. This is illustrated in Figure 2.7 below, which indicates bus journeys in red, and Underground journeys in blue. FIGURE 2.7

DISTRIBUTION OF AVERAGE LENGTH OF BUS AND UNDERGROUND JOURNEYS 2002-03

Implications for Mode Choice

2.14

4

From this, it may be seen that the distance of commuting trips can be a major factor in mode choice. Bus tends to be favoured for shorter trips, while Underground and National Rail is favoured for longer trips. Beyond the M25, National Rail is usually the only available public transport mode available for trips into London. As demand for commuting trips grows due to population increases and demographic changes, and the trend for commuting trips to lengthen continues, it is likely that increases in National Rail capacity will have an increasingly important role in catering for this increased demand in the future.

Transport for London (2003) – The London Travel Report 2003. P:\projects\5700s\5752\Outputs\Reports\Crossrail Summary Transport Case\Final (with figures).doc

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FIGURE 2.8

RAIL/UNDERGROUND MODE SHARE FOR JOURNEYS TO WORK 2001

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

International Connections

2.15

Heathrow Airport is the primary international gateway to London, handling more than 63 million passengers per year. The Heathrow Express provides a high-quality public transport link to Paddington, but this is not directly linked to London’s primary business locations in the West End, the City or Docklands. The Piccadilly line does provide direct links from the West End, although the journey is relatively slow with many stops, and is often congested because of the other functions this line serves for Londoners.

2.16

The Government supports the provision of a third runway at Heathrow5, allowing the airport to grow even further. However, this will only be permitted if further significant environmental impacts can be avoided. These effects are chiefly associated with air pollutant emissions from surface traffic travelling to and from the airport. Increasing the capacity of public transport links to and from the airport will therefore be crucial to the future development of Heathrow.

2.17

The Government also supports expansion at Stansted6. Development is planned by 2011/2012 of a second runway as the first new runway for the South East, prior to the expansion at Heathrow. The airport is served by the Stansted Express service from Liverpool Street, with trains departing every 15 or 30 minutes, with an average journey time of approximately 45 minutes. Environmental concerns are again seen as a potential constraint on growth at Stansted, and public transport service access also will have a key role to play here.

2.18

The completion of the Channel Tunnel Rail link will also provide boost for international rail services. However, the existing terminal for Eurostar services at Waterloo is not well placed to serve London’s present key business locations, and will close in 2007 in any case. The new terminals at St. Pancras and Stratord will also not serve these areas directly, although new employment centres will be developed close by. The Underground lines connecting St. Pancras and Stratford with the City the West End and Docklands are among the most congested on the network presently, and this will worsen when the new international terminal opens.

2.19

Thameslink provides direct public transport links from the City to both Luton and Gatwick Airports, although this has capacity problems of its own until the Thameslink 2000 scheme is implemented. Services between Gatwick to Victoria provide direct links with the West End.

2.20

London City Airport provides important niche services, although presently public transport links with the City and the West End are relatively poor. However, local access to the airport is improving, and the extension to the DLR that will link the airport directly with the City, is presently under construction, and is due to open in 2005.

5

Department for Transport (2003) - The Future of Air Transport - Cm 6046, Chapter 11

6

Department for Transport (2003) – Ibid.

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

Deficiencies in the Transport Network

2.21

The National Rail and Underground networks in London have developed incrementally and in many ways a piecemeal fashion since the mid 19th Century, but relatively little major improvement has taken place since the various elements of the network were put in place. Only the Victoria and Jubilee Lines have been added since the major shifts in population and employment patterns began occurring in the 1950’s, as described above.

2.22

The key deficiency in the National Rail network in London is that the main termini stations were developed at the edge of the main metropolitan area in the 19th Century, and few cross-London links were provided. North-south Thameslink services were established by the re-opening of the Snow Hill tunnel in 1988. There still is no eastwest cross London rail service.

2.23

The London Underground plays a more obvious role in linking the main line termini and facilitating travel in central London, as well as providing for longer distance and cross-London trips. Here again, however, only the construction of the Victoria Line in the late 1960’s, the Jubilee Line and its extension in the 1990’s have provided major additional capacity to the system, both of which now operate at or above capacity at peak times.

2.24

There are also major issues relating to the quality of the passenger environment. This relates both to the effort and resources required to maintain and improve the essentially Victorian and Early 20th Century infrastructure to acceptable modern standards. However, even the Victoria Line, which may be considered of the “modern era”, has been in use for more than 30 years. This means that there is a lack of acceptable modern facilities such as air conditioning for Underground stations, modern space and safety standards, and access for people with disabilities.

2.25

These key characteristics of public transport services provided in London and the South East have implications on the accessibility of the area. These include: •

•

•

• •

•

Because the termini for National Rail services are on the edge of the Central Business District (i.e. the west end and the City), the majority of passengers need to interchange onto other services on arrival in London. Many people need to walk at interchanges between services and, almost everybody completes the journey to their final destination on foot. In central London, the distances that people walk to complete their journeys often is longer than average journeys on foot in London. The capacity for additional National Rail services to London is constrained by the physical and financial constraints on expanding London termini and the capacity of the routes on the approach to London. The location of the termini results in significant congestion at these stations, for interchange onto Underground services, buses, taxis etc. The Thames has a “severance” effect, for example, in the east between Kent and Essex, and in the west, between south west London and Kensington, Chelsea and Hammersmith. Although the Underground network provides both orbital and radial journey opportunities north of the Thames, in the south the network is limited, and orbital P:\projects\5700s\5752\Outputs\Reports\Crossrail Summary Transport Case\Final (with figures).doc

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• • •

movements are reliant on bus services. Travel opportunities are constrained by the “corridor” nature of services, for example, from the South Central corridor, accessibility to east London is poor. Public transport is not accessible to those with special mobility needs or those with luggage or accompanying small children. The complex and constrained nature of the network means that the frequency of services is constrained, and clockface timetables are not feasible.

The Market for Rail Travel

2.26

The decline in public transport use during the 1970s was halted from 1983 with the introduction of Travelcards, zonal fares, improved services and improvements in the London and national economies. This trend continued through the 1980s and 1990s, although slowing during the recession in the early 1990s. More recently, bus travel has continued to increase although Underground usage has leveled off. The cost of fares on the Underground has also leveled off while the level of bus fares has decreased overall.

2.27

Passenger travel by rail and Underground has continued to rise since the mid 1990s. Usage of National Rail is at its highest levels for nearly 15 years. Underground usage although high has been relatively flat since 2000/01. National Rail journeys in the South East have increased by about a third since 1992/93, and by 6 percent since 1999/00. Thameslink and Thames Trains showed the highest increases with journeys up 22% and 19% respectively. Travel on the Docklands Light Railway has more than doubled in the past five years and continues to rise as capacity increases and the network is extended. Currently some 80% of those entering Central London during the morning peak do so by rail.

2.28

In the past 10 years, bus passenger volumes have risen over 36 percent and are now at their highest levels for over 30 years. There has been steady growth in the past 4 years. Real traffic revenue has increased by 30 percent since 1992/93 although bus fare paid per kilometre has fallen nearly 11 percent and is now at a level comparable to the period between 1971 and 1981.

2.29

Figure 2.9 on the following page presents the long-term trend in morning peak hour rail Central London arrivals by the National Rail, Underground and DLR networks. The graph shows how rail demand has changed over time with travel by all networks reaching its highest level in the late 1980s. This demonstrates that growth in demand for travel by the National Rail network during the morning peak has grown steadily since 1993 and demand for peak hour travel on the Underground and DLR networks has grown since 1995.

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FIGURE 2.9

2.30

CENTRAL LONDON ARRIVALS BY RAIL

Rail travel in and around London is dominated by the flow of commuters towards the key centres of employment. Approximately 1.85 million trips are made by public transport during the morning peak between 07:00 and 10:00. The principal destinations for such trips are presented in Table 2.1 on the following page. This shows the concentration of trips to the main areas of employment located in Westminster, City of London and Camden as well as Islington, Southwark and Lambeth. TABLE 2.1

SUMMARY OF MOST POPULAR MORNING PEAK DESTINATIONS IN LONDON

Destination

Percentage of London Total

Westminster

399,100

21.7%

City of London

192,300

10.5%

Camden

164,800

9.0%

Sub total – Central London

756,200

41.2%

Islington

77,100

4.2%

Southwark

77,100

4.2%

Kensington & Chelsea

68,300

3.7%

Tower Hamlets

66,900

3.6%

Lambeth

59,900

3.3%

Hammersmith & Fulham

45,200

2.5%

Croydon

43,100

2.3%

1,193,800

65%

Total

2.31

2001 Trips Number

Table 2.2 presents the origins of the 756,000 trips to the key central London destinations identified above (i.e. Westminster, the City and Camden). From this it

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may be seen that more than three quarters of trips presently start within central London. With the exception of Essex, from where 43,000 trips originate, the origin of trips to central London from outside the London area is uniformly distributed. TABLE 2.2

MOST POPULAR ORIGINS OF RAIL/UNDERGROUND CENTRAL LONDON (I.E. >2% MARKET SHARE) Origin

TRIPS

Number

Percentage

Westminster

42,990

5.7%

Camden

39,287

5.2%

City of London

3,083

0.4%

Lambeth

37,210

4.9%

Kensington and Chelsea

29,641

3.9%

Southwark

25,857

3.4%

Islington

23,325

3.1%

Hackney

18,603

2.5%

Tower Hamlets

16,876

2.2%

Newham

16,251

2.1%

Total Inner London

167,762

22.2%

Haringey

29,453

3.9%

Barnet

28,537

3.8%

Brent

28,480

3.8%

Wandsworth

27,764

3.7%

Hammersmith and Fulham

24,216

3.2%

Bromley

23,649

3.1%

Ealing

20,976

2.8%

Lewisham

20,750

2.7%

Redbridge

19,861

2.6%

Croydon

18,875

2.5%

Waltham Forest

18,697

2.5%

Enfield

16,487

2.2%

Other Boroughs

131,497

17.4%

Total Outer London

409,240

54.1%

Total London Boroughs

516,770

76.3%

Essex

43,520

5.8%

Kent

25,962

3.4%

Herts

25,597

3.4%

Surrey

21,328

2.8%

Other SE Counties

45,903

6.1%

TO

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2.32

Origin

Number

Percentage

Total SE counties

162,310

21.5%

Rest of UK

16,887

2.2%

TOTAL

756,200

100.0%

The reliance on the rail networks for travel to work is indicated in Figure 2.10 on the following page. This indicates that many areas within London, and for key corridors into London from Essex, Surrey and Kent, rail-based travel is used for more than a quarter of journeys to work. Two conclusions may be drawn from this: •

•

As demand for travel to work in central London continues to rise, the existing networks will become increasingly congested. Providing additional rail capacity will encourage some commuters to switch routes, helping to avoid this increased congestion. In those areas of London and the South East where use of rail-based travel is less important, this is chiefly because rail access to central London is less good. By improving access between these areas and central London, this will provide more opportunities for people living in some of the areas presently less-well served by rail to exploit employment opportunities in central and east London.

Current Levels of Crowding London Underground

2.33

The continued outstripping of supply by growth in demand has led to crowded travelling conditions on parts of both the surface and Underground rail networks. The distribution of crowding across each network is set out in more detail below.

2.34

London Underground Limited sets standards for crowding and capacity as defined by Planning Guideline Capacity (PGC). The ratio of demand to PGC gives a guide as to levels of crowding, with a ratio of greater than 1 representing a level of demand in excess of planning capacity. The PGC for a current Central Line train is approximately 650 passengers, and for a 10-car train Crossrail train will be approximately 1100 passengers. On the basis of the levels observed in 2001, it is possible to draw parallels between levels of crowding and current travelling conditions. The busiest section of the southbound Victoria line operates at a ratio of demand to capacity of around 1.3:1 while the busiest section of the sub surface lines in central London between Victoria and St. James’s Park operates at a demand to capacity ratio of 1.2:1 during the AM peak hour.

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FIGURE 2.10

RAIL/UNDERGROUND MODE SHARE FOR JOURNEYS TO WORK IN LONDON AND THE SOUTH EAST

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2.35

Extensive overcrowding across the Underground network occurs during the morning peak hour. The levels of crowding are at their highest within the central area with sections of the Jubilee, Piccadilly, Victoria and Northern lines all exhibiting demand to capacity ratios of 1.25:1 to 1.5:1. Crowded travel conditions also occur outside of the central area with services operating in excess of capacity on the Central Line between Liverpool Street and Leytonstone and the southern section of the Northern Line. The most crowded links are: • • • • • •

Southbound Bakerloo line between Paddington and Oxford Circus. Westbound Central line between Stratford and Chancery Lane. Westbound Jubilee line between Bermondsey and Westminster. Eastbound Piccadilly line between Earls Court and Knightsbridge and southbound between Arsenal and Holborn. Southbound Victoria line between Finsbury Park and Green Park and northbound between Pimlico and Oxford Circus. Southbound Northern line between Camden Town and Bank (City branch) and Goodge Street (Charing Cross branch) and northbound between Kennington and Old Street (City branch) and Waterloo and Leicester Square (Charing Cross branch).

National Rail

2.36

The sections of the National Rail network in London that are most crowded during the morning peak hour are as follows: • • • • • •

2.37

South Central and South Eastern on approach to London Bridge. South Central and Thameslink on approach to Blackfriars. South West Trains suburban network on approach to Waterloo. Thameslink on the approach to Kings Cross. Great Eastern services west of Romford. C2C routes into Fenchurch Street.

Crowding on the National Rail network routes into London has been exacerbated recently because the SRA chose to support additional services for occasional longdistance travellers over the needs of London’s daily commuters. Over the period 19982003, passenger numbers on National Rail services in London and the South East grew by 15%, while over the same period, passengers on long-distance services increased by only 6%. During this period, long distance train mileage increased by 30% while the train mileage in London and the South East increased by less than 5%. The Role of Bus Services

In London, bus patronage increased by over almost 25% over the period 1991-2002, and by 7 percent between 2001/02 and 2002/03. This was due to a comprehensive package of service enhancements; improved reliability due to investment in updated schedules; simplified fare levels, structures and ticketing arrangements; new vehicles; and better information. There were also been significant disruptions to Underground services, such as the Central line closure from January to May 2003, and the Northern

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line disruption in October 2003. It is possible that some of those who transferred from Underground to bus services during these periods have been retained as bus passengers7. 2.38

More recently, a detailed review of the inner London bus network was undertaken by TfL prior to the introduction of the Congestion Charge, resulting in frequency enhancements on 53 routes; bigger buses on 10 routes; 15 services restructured or extended; and seven new routes. There were also additional bus priority measures (e.g. bus lanes extended to become continuous along large sections of some routes). Consequently, between Autumn 2002 and Autumn 2003 there was an increase during the 3-hour morning peak of approximately 38% in bus passengers observed, which was roughly equivalent to the increase in peak hour capacity supplied by TfL8.

2.39

However, as was noted in Paragraph 2.13 above, buses typically cater for trips less than 5km. Also, it appears that most of these extra passengers have transferred from cars since the congestion charge was introduced. The biggest change prompted by congestion charging is the transfer of car users to another mode of transport. Surveys indicate that for 40,000 to 45,000 terminating car movements, 35%-40% of these car drivers have transferred to bus; another 45%-50% have transferred to Underground or rail. Consequently, this extra capacity provided on the bus network has done little to alleviate crowding on the rail networks. Congestion on the Road Network

2.40

Traffic congestion in London has increased steadily over the last thirty years or so. In central London, average traffic speeds are below 10 mph (16 kph) throughout the day, and many strategic centres in London also suffer severe peak-hour congestion. In central London, about half of the time in traffic is spent stationary. Speeds in Inner London outside the centre have fallen to about 12 mph (19 kph) in the peaks, and to 15 mph (24 kph) off-peak. Outer London speeds are more variable – some 17 mph (27 kph) in the morning peak, 19 mph (30 kph) in the evening peak, and just less than 23 mph (37 kph) off-peak9. This worsening of traffic speeds inevitably has an adverse effect on bus journey times and reliability.

2.41

The introduction of the congestion charge in February 2003 has halted some of these trends, average speeds in the central area have being increasing slowly. TfL’s most recent monitoring report indicated that congestion within the charging zone has reduced on average by 30%. Although this marks a fundament change in the approach to dealing with traffic congestion in London, in the long term it in a sense merely buys time. The underlying drivers of growth – chiefly the growth in population, homes and jobs – will mean that traffic will still continue to increase in London even with the congestion charge in place, albeit perhaps at a slower rate.

7

Transport for London (2004) – Congestion Charging Central London: Impacts Monitoring – Second Annual Report: April 2004 – pp. 40.

8

Transport for London (2004) – Ibid.

9

Office of National Statistics (2000) - Focus on London - pp. 117). P:\projects\5700s\5752\Outputs\Reports\Crossrail Summary Transport Case\Final (with figures).doc

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2.42

It has been demonstrated that urban traffic congestion tends to maintain equilibrium10. If congestion increases, people change destinations, routes, travel time and modes to avoid delays, and if it declines they make additional peak-period trips (although the effect of congestion charging may suppress this to an extent). Reducing this point of equilibrium is the only way to reduce congestion over the long run. The capacity and quality of travel alternatives have a significant effect on this equilibrium: If alternatives are not available or inferior, few motorists will shift mode and the level of equilibrium will be high. If travel alternatives are more attractive, more motorists will shift modes, resulting in a lower equilibrium. Improving travel options can therefore benefit all travellers on a corridor, both those who shift modes and those who continue to drive. This not only reduces congestion on a particular road, it can also reduce traffic generation by new developments, providing downstream congestion reduction benefits.

2.43

To reduce congestion, rail must attract discretionary passengers (i.e. travellers who have the option of driving). This requires a fast, comfortable, convenient and affordable service. When trains provide a service that is faster and more comfortable than driving, a portion of travellers shift mode until congestion declines to the point that the train is no longer faster. As a result, the faster and more comfortable rail services are, the faster the traffic speeds on parallel highways. It has been demonstrated clearly that in London, door-to-door travel times for motorists tend to converge with those of for travel by rail 11. Summary of the Present Position

2.44

The present transport situation in London, and for trips to and from the rest of the South East may be characterised as follows: •

•

•

•

After more than 20 years of decline, London’s population has grown steadily since the mid-to-late 1980’s. It is now forecast to continue to grow, exceeding levels reached in the 1950’s by 2015. Similarly, employment in central London generally declined after reaching a post-war peak. This trend reversed in the late 1980’s, and after a short recession, since 1993 the trend has again reversed and is now strongly upwards. During this period, the amount of personal travel in London has increased significantly, in terms of both the number and average length of trips. There has also been fundamental shifts in modal share for trips to and from central London over the past 40 years, including a rapid decline in walking, cycling and bus use, which has only recently begun to be reversed. There was also a decline in tube use until the 1980’s, although growth since then has recently flattened off. There has been a significant increase in National Rail modal share due to the increase commuting distances over this period. Historic deficiencies in London’s rail network, such as barriers to cross-London travel, the lack of modern facilities and improved capacity have only partly been addressed by initiatives to date.

10

Littman (2004) – Comprehensive Evaluation of Rail Transit Benefits – Victoria Transport Policy Institute, British Columbia, pp. 21.

11

Mogridge, M (1990) - Travel in Towns: Jam Yesterday, Jam today, and Jam Tomorrow? - Macmillan, London.

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•

•

•

12

The most popular destinations for commuting trips in the morning peak are The City, Westminster, and Camden, accounting for over 40% of trips. Just over 20% of commuting trips to central London begin in inner London, and more than three-quarters begin in Greater London. More than 20% of trips are made from the Counties of south east England12. Only about 2% of peak hour trips begin beyond these. On bus services, decades of decline in passenger numbers has been reversed since the early 1990’s, and the introduction of the congestion charge in central London coupled with a comprehensive package of service improvements has led to a more recent surge in passenger numbers. In the morning peak, bus passengers entering central London increased by 38% during 2002/3, roughly equivalent to the extra capacity provided by the service improvements. However, this has done little to alleviate crowding on the rail networks. Overall, passengers experience considerable crowding on key parts of the Underground and National Rail network presently. The Central Line between Stratford and the City is very crowded, as is the southern part of the Circle and District line. The Victoria line between Victoria and Finsbury Park and the Northern line south of Camden Town are also notably congested. On the National Rail network, crowding is most pronounced on routes into London Bridge, Blackfriars from the south, the South West Trains suburban network, Thameslink, Great Eastern services from west of Romford and C2C routes into Fenchurch Street.

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3.

LONDON’S RAIL NETWORKS IN THE FUTURE Overview

3.1

The long term need for additional rail capacity on the London Rail networks will be influenced by a range of factors such as land use policy and investment elsewhere in the transportation networks, as well as structural changes to working patterns and the economy. The impact of these and upon the need for extra capacity is considered in this section of the report.

3.2

Whilst the demand for travel is intrinsically linked to both land use and changes to the supply of transport services, the changes to the patterns of demand forecast by the LTS model which contains a representation of future land use and transportation networks are summarised.

3.3

At the heart of the likely changes to patterns of demand is The London Plan, together with the regional strategies and Structure Plans of the areas that form London’s hinterland. However, here it most important to consider the factors that will be the key drivers of the demand for transport, i.e.: • • • • •

Where people live, and how this will change over time. Where people will work. Improvements to the rail network that are already planned. Future levels of crowding after these improvements are in place. The role of buses in helping cater for extra travel demand.

Where People Will Live

3.4

Where people live is of primary importance in transport terms, because this is where, broadly speaking, they will start or finish virtually all the journeys they make. As such, the numbers of people living in particular places, and the way that this will change in the future becomes one of the cornerstones of planning for new transport infrastructure. Figure 3.1 on the following page indicates where people who work in London live presently.

3.5

This indicates that the highest concentrations of London employees are, not surprisingly, to be found within the M25. However, as can be seen, the largest numbers of people travelling longer distances tend to live to the east of London. Taking account of the ease of access to London, the demand for jobs there inevitably drives the housing market, as reflected in relative house prices across the region.

3.6

The London Plan projects an increase in the population of 810,000 (to 8.1 million) by 2016 (equivalent to a city the size of Leeds). Regional Planning Guidance also envisages an increase of 213,700 houses will be built in the South East Region, with a further 478,000 being built in the East of England Region over the same period. Figure 3.2 following indicates projected population growth in London and part of the South East between now and 2016, which is the most common time horizon for the development plans presently in force. Population is forecast to increase by the greatest amount in the inner London boroughs surrounding the central areas and in the east of the city. Substantial growth is also forecast to take place outside London, particularly

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in the Thames Gateway.

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FIGURE 3.1

LOCATION OF RESIDENCE FOR PEOPLE WORKING IN CENTRAL LONDON 2003

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FIGURE 3.2

INDICATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE GROWTH IN HOMES IN AND AROUND LONDON

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Where People Will Work

3.7

Figure 3.3 on the following page illustrates the current density of employment in London, indicated where jobs are presently located.

3.8

Not surprisingly, these are presently located in the most accessible areas in Central London and suburban centres. In the future, the London Plan envisages that there will be a further 636,000 jobs in London by 2016. However, the policies of the London Plan, and Structure Plans around London will effect a shift in development generally eastwards into Docklands and the Thames Gateway. The largest proportion of new jobs (some 40%) will be in East London, but a similar number of new jobs will also be created in the City and West End. The likely distribution of new jobs is illustrated in Figure 3.4 following.

3.9

However, it should also be noted that even with the promotion of development in east London and beyond, there nevertheless will still be significant increases to the west at locations such as Park Royal and Heathrow.

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FIGURE 3.3

DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT IN LONDON 2003

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FIGURE 3.4

CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT LEVELS 2001-2016

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The Future Market for Travel

3.10

On the basis of these future changes in housing and employment in London and the South East, it is forecast that an additional 104,000 passengers will enter the central area cordon by either the National Rail, Underground or DLR networks in the 2016 morning peak hour. This is an increase of 24% over the equivalent 2001 flow. The pattern of these increases will not be uniform across London and the south east. The largest absolute demand increases occurring in the northern and eastern rail corridors. The geographical spread of these increases in demand are indicated in Table 3.1 below: TABLE 3.1

CHANGES IN FLOWS INTO CENTRAL CORDON (2001-2016) AM PEAK 2001

2016

change

% change

LUL

45473

66111

20638

45%

NRN

36077

41092

5015

14%

Sector East

4833

7644

2811

58%

86383

114847

28464

33%

LUL

59386

79644

20258

34%

NRN

30460

37839

7379

24%

Total North

89846

117483

27637

31%

26863

36451

9588

36%

DLR Total East North

North West LUL NRN

3111

3135

24

1%

29974

39586

9612

32%

LUL

58585

72412

13827

24%

NRN

10204

14445

4241

42%

Total West

68789

86857

18068

26%

LUL

29438

40258

10820

37%

NRN

144091

156647

12556

9%

Total South

173529

196905

23376

13%

LUL

219745

294876

75131

34%

NRN

223163

252118

28955

13%

Total North West West

South

Total

DLR TOTAL

4833

7644

2811

58%

447741

554638

106897

24%

Planned Improvements to the Rail Networks

3.11

In response to existing high levels of demand as well as forecast increases, TfL has identified three main categories of improvements to London’s rail system that are

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urgently required13: • • •

3.12

Increased capacity: Current peak services on most commuter rail routes into London are already over-crowded. Improved service quality: including more reliable services and improved facilities for passengers. Affordable cost: For London to continue to attract a diverse pool of employers, it is essential that work-related travel remains affordable for employees in all sectors of the economy.

There are presently five key rail service enhancement projects are proposed to be implemented prior to the opening of Crossrail. These are: •

•

•

•

•

London Underground Public Private Partnership (PPP) improvements: Under the PPP, all Underground lines except the Bakerloo line will be upgraded to some extent by 2017. The sub-surface lines (Circle, Hammersmith & City, District and Metropolitan) will see service changes including service enhancements and speed increases. The Jubilee, Northern and Victoria lines will see frequency increases of 5 to 6 trains per hour and Jubilee line trains will be lengthened from 6 to 7 cars. The Piccadilly and Waterloo & City lines will see frequency increases of 3 trains per hour. On the Central line there will be an increase in the eastbound train frequency. Eurostar and Channel Tunnel Rail Line (CTRL) domestic services: Following completion of Phase 2 of the CTRL, both Eurostar and domestic services will operate on the new route to St Pancras via Ebbsfleet and Stratford. CTRL domestic services will generate additional passenger demand from Kent and abstract passengers from the existing south London National Rail termini. Capacity increases on the Docklands Light Railway: This includes platform lengthening and viaduct strengthening to permit longer trains to operate on the DLR between Bank, Canary Wharf and Lewisham. It also includes extensions of the DLR to City Airport (currently under construction), Woolwich and Stratford International via West Ham. East London Line Extension: The proposed route for the East London Line Extension (ELLX) is from Highbury & Islington in the north, to West Croydon, Crystal Palace and Clapham Junction in the south. Phase 1 of the project will extend the existing line north to Dalston Junction and south to Crystal Palace and West Croydon. Thameslink 2000: Although the frequency and service definition of the Thameslink 2000 project has yet to be finalised, the project will provide additional capacity through central London from Elephant & Castle and London Bridge in the south to Kings Cross St Pancras in the north.

3.13

In addition, the capacities of a limited number of National Rail routes will be increased by 2016 through the operation of longer trains on some route and services into Paddington, Marylebone, Euston, Liverpool Street, London Bridge and Waterloo.

3.14

Overall, these improvements, if all implemented and on schedule, will at best increase peak hour rail capacity across the central area cordon by 16% from 2001 levels by

13

Transport for London (2004) - London’s Railways: Response to Government’s Rail Review - 6 May 2004, pp. 7. P:\projects\5700s\5752\Outputs\Reports\Crossrail Summary Transport Case\Final (with figures).doc

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2016. Although capacity will increase from all directions, the greatest absolute increases in capacity will occur in the north-south corridor. On the National Rail network this is due to Thameslink 2000, train lengthening on several routes in the south and the introduction of commuter services into St Pancras on the Channel Tunnel Rail link. Further capacity is added in these corridors by improvements to Underground services, including upgrades to the Victoria and Northern lines. However, it must be noted that there is a real risk that some of these improvements will not be implemented on time, or even at all. 3.15

Table 3.2 on the following page sets out the effects of these increases in capacity across the central cordon by sector: TABLE 3.2

INCREASES IN CAPACITY AT CENTRAL CORDON 2001-2016 (AM PEAK)

Sector

2001

2016

Change

%Change

East 44952

54805

NRN

47519

48455

936

2%

DLR

4917

7272

2355

48%

97388

110532

13144

13%

LUL

47394

57088

9694

20%

NRN

36575

49801

13226

36%

Total North

83969

106889

22920

27%

26713

37081

10368

39%

Total East

9853

22%

LUL

North

North West LUL NRN

5706

7987

2281

40%

32419

45068

12649

39%

LUL

66537

76198

9661

15%

NRN

12506

14847

2341

19%

Total West

79043

91045

12002

15%

Total North West West

South LUL

34542

42876

8334

24%

NRN

123547

128278

4731

4%

Total South

158089

171156

13065

8%

LUL

220138

268048

47910

22%

NRN

226853

249368

23515

10%

DLR

4917

7272

2355

48%

450908

524688

73780

16%

Total

TOTAL

Future Overcrowding on the Rail Networks 3.16

The capability of the existing National Rail and Underground networks to accommodate additional rail services is constrained by the capacity of the existing infrastructure. The current proposed additions and improvements to the rail networks in London have been identified in Paragraph 3.12 above. Also, on the Underground

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network, additional capacity will be added on nearly all lines in central London through the operation of higher frequency services, while the East London Line will be extended into both north and south London. 3.17

The forecast levels of crowding arising as a result of the forecast growth in demand are in part mitigated by the provision of additional capacity on the Underground and National Rail Networks, however significant parts of both networks are forecast to suffer from acute crowding during the morning peak.

3.18

On the National Rail network, the most significant crowding will occur on the following sections: • • • • •

3.19

Great Eastern “Metro” services into Liverpool Street, between Ilford and Stratford. Suburban services into Paddington. Services on the North Kent Line via Woolwich on the approaches to London Bridge and Waterloo East. Other services into London Bridge from Lewisham. Thameslink and other services from the south into Blackfriars.

On the Underground network, the following sections will operate above their Planning Guideline Capacity: • • • • • • •

The Central Line, between Mile End and St. Pauls. The Victoria Line Between Finsbury Park and Oxford Circus, and between Green Park and Victoria. The Piccadilly Line, between Holloway Road and Holborn. The Northern Line between Euston and Elephant & Castle on the City Branch. The Bakerloo line between Paddington and Oxford Circus. The Circle and Metropolitan Lines between Edgeware Road and Baker Street. The Jubilee Line, between Bermondsey and Waterloo.

The locations of key increases in crowding from the present conditions on the Underground network are indicated in Table 3.3 on the following page. Also, Figure 3.5 shows forecast loadings on the London Underground network relative to each line’s Planning Guideline Capacity.

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TABLE 3.3

INCREASE IN CROWDING ON THE UNDERGROUND NETWORK (2001 AND 2016)

Line

Section

% of Passengers above Planning Guideline Capacity 2001

2016

Bakerloo

Paddington to Oxford Circus

32%

36%

Central

Stratford to Chancery Lane

22%

38%

Lancaster Gate to Chancery Lane

4%

10%

Canada Water to Westminster

22%

28%

London Bridge to Canary Wharf

0%

21%

Piccadilly

Earls Court to Knightsbridge

12%

23%

Circle

Edgware Rd to Baker Street

0%

31%

Kings Cross to Farringdon

0%

3%

Jubilee

The Role of Buses

3.20

In central London, the “carrot” of massive improvements in bus services across a very wide area (including 7 new routes and brand new high quality buses), complemented by the “stick” of the Congestion Charge, has delivered an additional capacity for about 14,500 trips in the peak three hours. Consequently, between Autumn 2002 and Autumn 2003 there was an increase during the 3-hour morning peak of approximately 38% in bus passengers observed, which was roughly equivalent to the increase in peak hour capacity supplied by TfL14.

3.21

The TfL 5-year business plan, covering the period 2005/6-2009/10, is a 5-year investment programme worth £10bn, and was launched in October 2004. The business plan envisages a 4% increase in bus kilometres provided. The following measures to improve the bus network in London are included in the plan: •

•

14

Improvements in accessibility and reliability: A 100% accessible bus fleet is due to be in service by the end of 2005, all fitted with CCTV. A new bus radio, vehicle location and countdown system, due to be introduced by 2008, will assist bus reliability and give better real-time information to bus users. 7,000 illuminated bus stops will be introduced. Improvements to interchanges and new bus garages: Finsbury Park transport interchange improvements, due to be completed by 2007, are designed to make it easier to change between different modes of transport, and make the area safer and more accessible for cyclists and pedestrians. A new bus station at Hounslow, due to be completed by 2008, will make waiting for services and changing to other transport modes more comfortable, accessible and convenient. A new bus station will also be built at Dalston to provide convenient interchange with the East London line extension. New bus garages at Hounslow and North Acton, due to be completed by 2006, will provide capacity for extra buses.

Transport for London (2004) – Congestion Charging Central London: Impacts Monitoring – Second Annual Report: April 2004.

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Conclusions

3.22

The changes in the transport networks in London and the South East, will be affected by the following: •

•

•

•

• •

There will be significant increases in the numbers of people living in London and the south east, with 810,000 more people living in London, and nearly 700,000 further houses being built in the South East and East of England Regions by 2016. Planning policies and the distribution of property values indicate that the major growth in new homes is likely to be in areas to the east of London. Similarly, there will be 636,000 new jobs in London by 2016, and areas to the east, such as the Isle of Dogs and Thames Gateway, will play a significant role by accommodating almost 40% these. However, there will also be growth in Central London’s traditional employment areas, and 38% of new jobs will be created in the City and West End. Both these trends will result in increased demand for travel to and from London. This has to be viewed in the context of the unacceptable levels of crowding already experienced on London’s National Rail and Underground networks, as also highlighted in Chapter 2. Planned improvements to London’s rail networks, such as the East London Line, the PPP for the Underground, new domestic services using the CTRL and Thameslink 2000 will provide much needed additional capacity to the London networks. This will increase rail capacity for trips into London in the morning peak by 16% in total. Improvements to bus services and facilities will provide a 4% increase in bus kilometres operated. However, even with these planned improvements, future levels of crowding on these networks will still exceed tolerable levels in some specific areas. This means that there will be capacity issues remaining, and London’s future economic growth may be threatened.

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FIGURE 3.5

FORECAST UNDERGROUND NETWORK CROWDING 2016

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

4.

THE TRANSPORT IMPACTS OF CROSSRAIL Project Definition

4.1

The preferred route of Crossrail is for trains to run on existing overground tracks from Maidenhead and Heathrow in the west through new tunnels under central London. The tunnels would start just west of Paddington and run through the central area to Whitechapel, after which they would divide. One branch would surface at Pudding Mill Lane, while the other would surface close to Custom House after serving a new station at the Isle of Dogs. From Pudding Mill Lane, Crossrail trains would use existing overground tracks to serve stations to Shenfield in Essex while from Custom House, trains would use a new tunnel under the River Thames to terminate at Abbey Wood. Project Objectives Objectives and Goals

4.2

The overall objectives for the Crossrail project that have been set by CLRLL are: • • •

4.3

To meet these objectives, Crossrail needs specifically to achieve the following goals: •

•

• • • • 4.4

To support the continuing development of London as a World City, and its role as the key financial centre of the UK and Europe. To support its economic growth and its regeneration areas by tackling the lack of capacity and congestion on the existing network. To improve rail access into and within London.

Support the wider transport, planning, social and environmental objectives of the Government's 10 Year Plan, the Mayor's Strategies for London, the Strategic Rail Authority's Strategic Plan and Regional Planning Guidance. Relieve congestion and overcrowding on the existing National Rail and Underground networks and support the development of a network of strategic interchanges. Facilitate the continued development of London's primary finance and business service activities, which are now located in both the City and Docklands. Facilitate the improvement of London's international links, including Heathrow. Facilitate the regeneration of priority areas, such as the Thames Gateway and the Lea Valley. Provide improved east-west rail access into and across London from the East and South East regions.

In achieving these goals, Crossrail also needs to be feasible from both operational and engineering points of view, environmentally acceptable and value for money. Core Functions

4.5

In transport terms, Crossrail will have four core functions: •

Increasing Capacity: By providing additional capacity in the London rail

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

•

•

•

network, this will enable more people to travel to, from and across London and remove constraints on future economic development. Relieving Crowding on the Existing Networks: By providing an alternative route for cross-London travel, Crossrail will help relieve existing congestion on the tube and National Rail networks, especially on the Victoria and Central Lines and the into the terminals at Fenchurch Street, Liverpool Street and Paddington. Additional Improvements: It will be possible to improve the frequency of existing ONE services as a result of terminal capacity released by Crossrail at Liverpool Street Station. Reducing Journey Times: By providing a faster and more reliable service, Crossrail will enable journey to, from and across London to be made in less time. This not only will bring benefits in terms of time savings, but also will improve access, particularly for journeys that involve crossing the central area.

Transport Effects of Crossrail Capacity

4.6

The addition of Crossrail to the rail network would alter both the level and distribution of capacity provision across the central area cordon. Table 4.1 below summarises this increase in capacity and shows that Crossrail would deliver a peak hour capacity increase of 6% (note that Crossrail is defined as a TOC service in Table 4.1).

4.7

Due to the route of Crossrail, this additional capacity would be added to the eastern and western sectors only, with respective increases in total capacity of 22% and 10% occurring in these corridors. These increases represent net increases in capacities for these sectors and include the effects of adding the new Crossrail services as well as any reductions in rail services that are required to accommodate the proposed Crossrail services.

4.8

The absolute increase in capacity in the eastern sector would be higher than in the west since a full 24 tph Crossrail service is assumed to cross the eastern sector of the central area cordon, compared to just 10 tph in the west (the remaining 14 tph eastbound Crossrail service is assumed to start at Paddington). The eastern sector capacity figure also includes the impact of operating additional West Anglia trains into Liverpool Street terminal station, the operation of which would become feasible due to the release of terminal capacity by the diversion of most Great Eastern services to the Crossrail tunnel. TABLE 4.1

PEAK HOUR NETWORK WIDE CAPACITY IMPROVEMENTS IN 2016 WITH CROSSRAIL 2016

2016 With Crossrail

Change

% Change

LUL

54805

54805

0

0%

TOC

48455

72570

24,115

50%

DLR

7272

7272

0

0%

110,532

134,647

24,115

22%

Sector East

Total

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

2016

2016 With Crossrail

Change

% Change

LUL

76,198

76,198

0

0%

TOC

14,847

23,538

8,691

58%

Total

91,045

99,736

8,691

10%

LUL

268,048

268,048

0

0%

TOC

249,368

281,174

31,806

13%

DLR

7,272

7,272

0

0%

524,688

556,494

31,806

6%

Sector West

TOTAL

TOTAL

4.9

The increase in capacity in both the western and the eastern sectors would be formed from a number of changes to National Rail services. The bulk of existing inner suburban Great Eastern services from Shenfield, Gidea Park and Ilford would be diverted to the Crossrail tunnel although some of the resulting release of terminal capacity would be utilised to provide new Great East inner suburban services. The net effect of these changes would be to reduce by 25% the service capacity terminating at grade at Liverpool Street Station from the Great Eastern lines. The addition of a further 6 peak hour trains from the West Anglia corridor would increase capacity on the WA route by over 2,000 passengers, an increase of over 20% over 2016 withoutCrossrail levels.

4.10

In the Great Western corridor it would be necessary to remove a number of existing Thames Trains services to allow for the operation of the Crossrail service from Maidenhead and Heathrow. With Crossrail, the Thames Train service capacity into Paddington would fall by nearly 40% but within the corridor, Crossrail would provide an overall increase in capacity of 10%. Demand

4.11

The opening of Crossrail would generate a wide range of changes in traveller behaviour. The majority of Crossrail passengers would switch from other modes of public transport to use Crossrail because it offers an improvement in journey time and comfort over their original mode. In addition, Crossrail would stimulate a smaller number of car drivers to transfer to public transport while some travellers would change destination or make new journeys in response to opportunities newly presented by the Crossrail route.

4.12

Table 4.2 on the following page shows the forecast impact of Crossrail on passenger flows crossing the central area cordon. Total rail flows (NRN, Underground and DLR) during the morning peak hour are forecast to increase by 3%, although this increase would be concentrated along the Crossrail alignment in the eastern and western sectors, where total rail flows would increase by 14% and 7% respectively. Forecast Underground flows are correspondingly reduced at the cordon as passengers switch to Crossrail.

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

4.13

A proportion of the increase in each of these sectors would be a result of passengers switching to Crossrail from services that terminate in the southern sector at termini such as Charing Cross and Cannon Street. The remainder of the additional passengers would be either transfers from buses or the additional demand forecast to use rail services as a result of Crossrail.

4.14

A more detailed description of how Crossrail would impact upon demand for other rail services is set out in the remainder of this section. TABLE 4.2

CHANGES IN MORNING PEAK HOUR FLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AREA CORDON IN 2016 WITH CROSSRAIL 2016

2016 With Crossrail

Change

% Change

LUL

66,111

59,848

-6,263

-9%

TOC

41,092

64,097

23,005

56%

DLR

7,664

6,991

-673

-9%

114,867

130,936

16,069

14%

LUL

79,644

78,804

-840

-1%

TOC

37,839

38,020

181

0%

Total

117,483

116,824

-659

-1%

LUL

36,451

36,237

-214

-1%

TOC

3,135

2,974

-161

-1%

Total

39,586

39,211

-375

-1

LUL

72,412

69,725

-2,687

-4%

TOC

14,445

23,282

8,837

61%

Total

86,857

93,007

6,150

7%

LUL

40,258

40,484

226

0%

TOC

156,647

153,418

-3229

-2%

Total

196,905

193,902

-3,003

-2%

LUL

294,876

285,098

-9778

-3%

TOC

253,158

281,791

28,633

11%

DLR

7,664

6,991

-673

-%

555,698

573,880

18,182

3%

Sector East

Total North

North West

West

South

Total

TOTAL

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

Impact of Crossrail on the Underground and DLR

4.15

On the Underground, the overwhelming impact of Crossrail would be to reduce flows over large sections of the network, particularly in the central area, although some localised sections of the network would see increases.

4.16

The impact of Crossrail on the Underground and DLR networks is reflected in both a forecast change in the number of line-wide boarders and crowded hours, as shown in Table 4.3. This table shows that all Underground lines, with the exception of the Northern line, would see a decrease in boarders following the opening of Crossrail with the greatest percentage decreases occurring on the Bakerloo, Central, Metropolitan/Hammersmith & City and Jubilee lines. Substantial crowding relief benefits would be achieved with Crossrail, particularly on the lines listed above. The high level of crowding relief would be achieved with a 4% reduction in Underground boarders, demonstrating that Crossrail provides effective relief for some of the most crowded parts of the Underground network. TABLE 4.3

CHANGES IN UNDERGROUND BOARDERS AND CROWDED HOURS WITH CROSSRAIL AM PEAK PERIOD % Change in Boarders

% Change in Crowded Hours

Bakerloo

-8

-31

Central

-8

-30

District

-2

-10

Metropolitan/H&C/Circle

-8

-25

Jubilee

-4

-17

Northern

+2

-1

Piccadilly

-2

-10

Victoria

-2

-3

Waterloo & City

-4

-8

LUL Total

-4

-14

Docklands Light Railway

-8

-28

Line

4.17

On the Underground network reductions are forecast to occur over large sections of the network, in particular: • • • • •

4.18

Westbound on the Central line between Stratford and central London and eastbound between Ealing Broadway and central London. Westbound on the District line between Barking and central London. Eastbound on the Piccadilly Line between west and central London. Southbound on the Bakerloo line between Paddington and Oxford Circus. Eastbound and Westbound on the Metropolitan/Hammersmith & City lines between Paddington and Moorgate.

In comparison with these widespread decreases, increases in Underground flows

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would be generally minor with the most significant increase occurring on the Charing Cross branch of the Northern line where the “full cross” of east/west and north/south routes would encourage significant interchange from Crossrail to northbound and southbound Northern line services. 4.19

As a result of these changes in passenger flows, overcrowding would be reduced by Crossrail in the morning AM period over large sections of the Underground network. Table 4.4 below shows forecast reductions achieved by Crossrail in the percentage of passengers carried in excess of the Planning Guideline Capacity for a number of sections of the London Underground network. TABLE 4.4

Line

CROWDING REDUCTION ON THE UNDERGROUND NETWORK WITH CROSSRAIL (2016) Section

% of Passengers above Planning Guideline Capacity 2016 without Crossrail

Bakerloo

Paddington to Oxford Circus

36%

10%

Central

Stratford to Chancery Lane

38%

19%

Lancaster Gate to Chancery Lane

10%

0%

Canada Water to Westminster

28%

13%

London Bridge to Canary Wharf

21%

8%

Piccadilly

Earls Court to Knightsbridge

23%

16%

Circle

Edgware Rd to Baker Street

31%

0%

Kings Cross to Farringdon

3%

0%

Jubilee

4.20

In addition, major reductions in passenger flows would occur on other sections of the Underground, that although not “overcrowded”, are still classified as being “busy” with at least 80% of the Planning Guideline Capacity utilised. The most significant stretches to be affected would be: • •

4.21

2016 with Crossrail

Westbound on the Metropolitan/Hammersmith and City lines between Liverpool Street and Paddington. Westbound on the District line between Upton Park and Embankment.

On the DLR, Crossrail is forecast to lead to an 8% decrease in boarders and 28% decrease in crowded hours. The main reductions in DLR flows would occur between Bank and Canary Wharf, on the Woolwich branch between Woolwich and Bank and on the Lewisham branch between Greenwich and Bank.

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

Impact on National Rail Network

4.22

The impact of Crossrail on the National Rail network is reflected in both forecast changes in the number of network wide boarders and crowded hours, as shown in Table 4.5 on the following page. Overall, Crossrail is forecast to reduce the number of boarders on other National Rail services by 4% and crowding by 7%. However, these are network wide reductions and Crossrail would not significantly affect many National Rail service groups such as services into Euston and Marylebone. As a result, Table 4.5 indicates the changes in boarders and crowded hours for the most affected five National Rail service groups.

4.23

The service groups most affected by Crossrail are those that operate into Liverpool St (inner suburban), Paddington (inner suburban), Fenchurch Street, Charing Cross and Cannon Street, which would all see fewer boarders and reduced crowding due to the diversion of passengers onto Crossrail services. Boarders however would increase on West Anglia services into Liverpool Street due to the provision of additional services on this route following the opening of Crossrail. TABLE 4.5

CHANGES IN BOARDERS AND CROWDED HOURS WITH CROSSRAIL % Change in Boarders

% Change in Crowded Hours

Paddington

-28

-33

Liverpool St (Great Eastern)

-38

-38

Liverpool St (West Anglia)

+11

-11

Fenchurch Street

-2

-6

Charing Cross/Cannon Street

-2

-12

Total NRN (excluding Crossrail

-4

-7

Service Group

4.24

The most significant increases in National Rail passenger flows would take place on those parts of the network where Crossrail services are introduced. Crossrail would offer direct services through central London and this would attract passengers from adjacent National Rail Network corridors where interchange is required onto Underground or bus services at the London termini to reach much of the central area. Crossrail services would also abstract passengers from adjacent Underground services, which although they penetrate the central area, have slower overall journey times due to more frequent station stops. The most significant increases in National Rail passenger flows would occur: •

•

•

On the Great Eastern Main Line between Shenfield and Stratford, particularly west of Romford. Crossrail would increase flows on this corridor by attracting passengers from the adjacent the National Rail line into Fenchurch St and the Undeground District and Central lines. On the North Kent Line between Dartford and Abbey Wood. Crossrail would increase flows on this corridor by attracting passengers from adjacent National Rail routes between Dartford and central London. These passengers would then interchange onto Crossrail at Abbey Wood. Onthe Great Western Main Line corridor, particularly between West Drayton and Paddington. Crossrail would primarily increase flows on this corridor by

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

attracting passengers from adjacent Underground lines, including the Central and Piccadilly lines. 4.25

The most significant decreases in National Rail passenger flows are forecast to take place: • •

•

4.26

On the line into Fenchurch Street, particularly inbound from Barking, due to the diversion of passengers on to Crossrail on the adjacent Great Eastern corridor. On the lines between Abbey Wood and Charing Cross and Cannon Street via both Greenwich and Blackheath due to the diversion of passengers from the North Kent Line onto Crossrail. On the lines between Dartford and central London via Bexleyheath and Sidcup due to the diversion of passengers onto Crossrail services on the North Kent Line route via Abbey Wood.

Taking account of all these changes, in terms of the key effects of Crossrail on the National Rail Network, the most notable relief of congestion would be on: • • • • •

ONE services into Liverpool Street, particularly between Seven Kings and Stratford. The North Kent Lines into London Bridge, Charing Cross and Cannon Street, especially on routes inwards from Charlton and Lewisham. Suburban services into Paddington. West Anglia services into Liverpool Street. Services into Fenchurch Street.

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

FIGURE 4.1

CHANGES IN UNDERGROUND PASSENGER FLOWS WITH CROSSRAIL (AM PEAK)

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Crossrail Summary Transport Case

CONTROL SHEET

Project/Proposal Name:

CROSSRAIL

Document Title:

Summary Transport Case

Client Contract/Project Number:

-

SDG Project/Proposal Number:

205752 ISSUE HISTORY

Issue No.

Date

Details

1

February 2005

Draft

2

th

16 February 2005

Final

REVIEW Originator:

Chris Ferrary

Other Contributors: Review By:

Print:

Steve Hewitt

Sign: DISTRIBUTION Clients:

John Landels – CLRL

Steer Davies Gleave:

As above.

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Control Sheet