Investment Research
26 November 2012
Fixed Income Market Watch Sweden Riksbank and Money Market Forecast repo rates given Riba pricing, Riksbank and Danske Bank Markets
Repo Eff. Date 2012-12-19 2013-02-20 2013-04-17 2013-07-10 2013-09-11 2013-10-30 2013-12-25
Riba 1.09 0.96 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89
Diff. (bp) -16 -13 -7 -1 0 0 1
FRA rates
Danske Riksbank Markets 1.29 1.00 1.25 1.00 1.25 1.00 1.25 1.00 1.40 1.00 1.54 1.00 1.54 1.00
Source: Danske Bank Markets Source: Danske Bank Markets
Direction of past three data releases for a number of macro economic series
Jun Retail sales, mom Consumer confidence Credit growth, households, yoy Industrial production Industrial orders Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing confidence Service production Service PMI Service producers' confidence Construction confidence Economic tendency barometer Trade balance, yoy Credit growth corporates Employment, s.a Unemployment, s.a Lay-offs, yoy 2.00
Jul ↑ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑
Aug ↓ ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↑
Sep ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ → ↑
Oct Next release 29-nov ↓ 27-nov 27-nov 10-dec 10-dec ↓ 03-dec ↓ 27-nov 05-dec ↑ 05-dec ↓ 27-nov ↓ 27-nov ↓ 27-nov 27-nov 27-nov → 13-dec ↓ 13-dec ↑ 13-dec
Riba prices and forecasts
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Macro economic series summarized into a single indicator
1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Quant/Strategy Marcus Söderberg +46-8-56880564
[email protected]
Important disclosures are contained from page 10. www.danskeresearch.com
Fixed Income Market Watch
Swap rates
TED-spread* and the spread between Riba and FRA contracts 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
2.70%
TED Spread
2.50% 2.30%
Now Last Month Last Year
2.10% 1.90% 1.70%
Actual
1.50%
Market Implied
years
1.30%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets * Spread between 3M Stibor and a generic 3M point on the Riba-curve
Nominal Bonds Swedish government bonds
Bond
Yield Week Mth YTD
Mrg Spread Rate vs DE ASW Carry
RD
SGB1041 0.74%
+4.0
-0.5
-7.5
0.74%
69
-56
-3.4
0.1
SGB1049 0.80%
+4.5
-4.0
-7.5
0.87%
75
-57
-1.5
0.4
SGB1050 0.88%
+6.0
-7.0 -13.5
1.11%
71
-58
-0.4
0.7
SGB1051 0.99%
+6.0
-8.0 -23.0
1.38%
61
-58
-0.1
0.8
SGB1052 1.17%
+6.0
-8.0 -21.5
1.80%
44
-60
0.2
0.9
SGB1047 1.36%
+6.0
-8.5 -16.5
2.21%
31
-59
0.1
0.9
SGB1054 1.51%
+6.0 -10.5 -10.5
2.36%
18
-55
0.3
0.7
SGB1057 1.63%
+6.0 -12.5
2.25%
4
-52
0.3
0.4
SGB1056 2.09%
+7.5
2.86%
-18
-27
0.5
0.4
-6.0
Source: Danske Bank Markets * Carry & Roll Down (RD) for 1M forward
German and Swedish government bonds swapped into a 3M Stibor based cash-flow 60 Swedish Govies
40
German Govies
ASW (bp)
20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
0
5
10
15
20
25
Years to Maturity 30 35
Source: Danske Bank Markets
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26 November 2012
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Marginal rates* 4.00% SEGOVT
3.50%
SEKSWAP
3.00%
Stadshypotek
2.50%
SHYP1579 SHYP1580 SHYP1578 SHYP1575 SHYP1577 SHYP1573 SGB1051 SHYP1576 SHYP1574 SGB1050 SGB1049 SGB1041 SGB1046
2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50%
SHYP1586
SHYP1583
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
SGB1047 SGB1052
Years to Maturity 8
9
10
Source: Danske Bank Markets *Computed from a zero-coupon curve
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Mortgage Bonds Bond
Cpn
Mat.
Yield Wk Mth
YTD Mrg Rte
ASW Carry RD
SHYP1573
6.00%
dec-12 1.44%
0.0
-3.0
-56.5
1.44%
5.4
SHYP1574
6.00%
s ep-13 1.33% +2.0
-6.5
-64.5
1.32%
-1.1
-0.9
SHYP1575
6.00%
jun-14 1.35% +5.5
-2.5
-75.0
1.37%
4.9
-3.4 0.4
SHYP1576
6.00%
ma r-15 1.51% +9.5 +0.5
-78.5
1.86%
17.3
-1.6 1.8
SHYP1577
6.00%
dec-15 1.67% +11.0
-1.5
-86.5
2.19%
26.3
0.6 1.7
SHYP1578
6.00%
s ep-16 1.82% +12.0
-5.0
-98.0
2.48%
34.4
0.9 1.6
jun-17 1.97% +11.5
-8.5
-96.5
SHYP1579
6.00%
SHYP1580
3.00%
ma r-18 2.09% +11.0 -13.0
2.83%
41.5
1.1 1.6
2.76%
44.3
1.2 1.1
SHYP1583
4.25%
jun-20 2.43% +11.5 -10.5
-88.5
3.42%
52.3
1.4 1.2
SHYP1586
4.50%
s ep-22 2.66% +11.5 -10.5
-77.5
3.62%
57.7
1.3 0.7
SWH177 SWH166
4.75%
jun-13 1.31% +0.5
-6.5
-66.5
1.31%
-7.1
0.6
6.75%
ma j-14 1.34% +5.0
-3.5
-79.5
1.36%
4.3
-3.8 0.4
SWH182
3.75%
ma r-15 1.53% +9.5
-2.0
-83.5
1.84%
18.8
-1.5 1.7
SWH183
3.75%
s ep-15 1.63% +10.5
-2.5
-89.0
2.11%
24.5
-0.8 1.6
jun-16 1.76% +11.0
SWH184
3.75%
-6.0 -103.0
2.30%
31.5
0.8 1.4
SWH185
3.75%
ma r-17 1.93% +11.0 -10.5 -104.0
2.77%
40.6
1.1 1.7
SWH186
3.75%
dec-17 2.11% +10.5 -12.0
3.22%
49.3
1.3 1.8
SWH180
5.70%
ma j-20 2.49% +10.5 -12.5
-87.5
3.51%
58.9
1.5 1.2
NDH5525
4.25%
jun-13 1.31% +0.5
-6.5
-63.5
1.31%
-7.1
0.6
NDH5526
4.00%
jun-14 1.35% +6.0
-2.0
-76.5
1.37%
4.9
-3.3 0.4
NDH5520
3.25%
jun-15 1.56% +11.0
0.0
-81.5
1.90%
20.2
-1.2 1.7
NDH5527
4.50%
jun-16 1.75% +12.5
-3.5
-99.0
2.28%
30.5
0.8 1.5
NDH5528
3.00%
jun-17 1.96% +12.0
-8.0
2.70%
40.5
1.1 1.5
NDH5521
3.25%
jun-20 2.43% +12.0
-9.5
-88.0
3.26%
52.3
1.3 1.2
SEB566
4.25%
jun-13 1.31% +0.5
-6.5
-63.0
1.31%
-7.1
0.6
SEB567
4.50%
jun-14 1.35% +5.5
-3.0
-79.0
1.37%
4.9
-3.4 0.4
SEB568
4.00%
jun-15 1.57% +10.0
-1.5
-84.0
1.93%
21.2
-1.2 1.8
SEB569
4.25%
jun-16 1.77% +11.5
-5.0 -102.0
2.31%
32.0
0.8 1.5
SEB570
3.00%
jun-17 2.00% +11.0
-9.5
2.84%
44.5
1.1 1.7
LFH505
4.50%
s ep-13 1.33% +2.0
-6.5
-72.5
1.33%
-1.1
0.4
LFH506
4.50%
ma j-14 1.34% +5.5
-2.5
-82.5
1.35%
4.3
-3.7 0.3
LFH510
2.25%
jun-15 1.59% +9.5
-3.5
1.92%
23.2
-1.1 1.8
LFH508
4.00%
ma r-16 1.74% +11.0
-6.0 -106.5
2.30%
31.8
0.8 1.6
LFH507
4.50%
3.14%
55.0
1.4 2.2
jun-17 2.10% +11.5 -14.0
LFH511
2.50%
jun-18 2.27% +10.5 -15.5
3.03%
59.5
1.4 1.2
SCBC125
4.00%
a pr-13 1.32%
0.0
-5.0
-62.0
1.32%
-10.0
1.1
SCBC126
4.00%
a pr-14 1.34% +4.5
-5.0
-74.5
1.34%
3.7
-4.0 0.2
SCBC127
4.00%
a pr-15 1.53% +10.0
-0.5
-78.5
1.80%
18.8
-1.5 1.6
SCBC131
4.00%
nov-15 1.66% +11.5
-1.5
-85.0
2.21%
26.5
-0.7 1.7
SCBC132
4.00%
s ep-16 1.82% +12.0
-4.5
-98.5
2.41%
34.4
0.9 1.4
SCBC133
4.00%
jun-17 1.97% +11.5
-8.5
2.80%
41.5
1.1 1.6
Source: Danske Bank Markets * Carry & Roll Down (RD) for 1M forward
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Top 5 Monthly Winners
Top 5 Monthly Losers
Bond
bp
Bond
bp
LFH511
jun-18 2.50%
-15.5
SHYP1576 mar-15 6.00%
0.5
LFH507
jun-17 4.50%
-14.0
NDH5520
jun-15 3.25%
0.0
SHYP1580 mar-18 3.00%
-13.0
SCBC127
apr-15 4.00%
-0.5
SGB1057 nov-23 1.50%
-12.5
SGB1041
maj-14 6.75%
-0.5
SWH180
-12.5
SHYP1577 dec-15 6.00%
-1.5
maj-20 5.70%
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Top 5 Largest Z-Score*
Top 5 Yield Volatility
Bond SGB1053
Z-Score mar-39 3.50%
1.15
SHYP1573 dec-12 6.00% SWH177
Bond LFH507
bp/day jun-17 4.50%
3.3
-1.09
NDH5521 jun-20 3.25%
3.2
jun-13 4.75%
-1.06
SHYP1586 sep-22 4.50%
3.2
NDH5525
jun-13 4.25%
-1.06
SHYP1583 jun-20 4.25%
3.2
SEB566
jun-13 4.25%
-1.06
SWH186
3.2
dec-17 3.75%
Source: Danske Bank Markets *Std from 3M mean
Source: Danske Bank Markets Period: past Month
Top 5 ASW
Top 5 ASW Gainers
Bond SWH180
bp
Bond
bp
maj-20 5.70%
67.1
SHYP1576 mar-15 6.00%
5.0
SHYP1586 sep-22 4.50%
63.3
NDH5520 jun-15 3.25%
4.4
LFH511
jun-18 2.50%
58.8
SCBC127
apr-15 4.00%
4.3
LFH507
jun-17 4.50%
57.7
SGB1041 maj-14 6.75%
4.2
SHYP1583
jun-20 4.25%
56.2
SHYP1577 dec-15 6.00%
3.4
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets Change during past month
Top 5 Winners Total Return
Top 5 Losers Total Return
Bond
YTD
Bond
YTD
SHYP1586 sep-22 4.50%
9.43%
SGB1053 mar-39 3.50%
-0.61%
NDH5521
jun-20 3.25%
8.94%
SGB1041 maj-14 6.75%
0.84%
SHYP1583
jun-20 4.25%
8.77%
SGB1049 aug-15 4.50%
0.98%
SWH180
maj-20 5.70%
8.40%
SGB1050
jul-16 3.00%
1.37%
SWH185
mar-17 3.75%
6.76%
SHYP1573 dec-12 6.00%
1.85%
Source: Danske Bank Markets Period: YTD
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Source: Danske Bank Markets Period: YTD
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Top 5 Carry & Roll Down, Maturity<3Y
Bond
Top 5 Carry & Roll Down, Maturity>3Y
Bond
Carry RD
Carry RD
SCBC131 nov-15 4.00% -0.7
1.7
LFH507
jun-17 4.50%
1.4
2.2
LFH510
jun-15 2.25% -1.1
1.8
SWH186 dec-17 3.75%
1.3
1.8
SWH183 sep-15 3.75% -0.8
1.6
SEB570
1.1
1.7
SEB568
jun-15 4.00% -1.2
1.8
SWH185 mar-17 3.75% 1.1
1.7
NDH5520 jun-15 3.25% -1.2
1.7
SHYP1579 jun-17 6.00%
1.6
Source: Danske Bank Markets Period: 1M forward
jun-17 3.00%
Source: Danske Bank Markets Period: 1M forward
2Y spread vs SGB1041
Bond SHYP1575 SWH166 NDH5526 SEB567 LFH506 SCBC126
1.1
5Y spread vs SGB1051
Bond SHYP1579 SWH185 NDH5528 SEB570 LFH507 SCBC133
bp Week Month YTD jun-14 6.00% 61 +1.5 -2.0 -67.5 maj-14 6.75% 60 +1.0 -3.0 -72.0 jun-14 4.00% 61 +2.0 -1.5 -69.0 jun-14 4.50% 61 +1.5 -2.5 -71.5 maj-14 4.50% 60 +1.5 -2.0 -75.0 apr-14 4.00% 60 +0.5 -4.5 -67.0
Source: Danske Bank Markets
jun-17 6.00% mar-17 3.75% jun-17 3.00% jun-17 3.00% jun-17 4.50% jun-17 4.00%
bp Week Month YTD 98 +5.5 -0.5 -73.5 94 +5.0 -2.5 -81.0 97 +6.0 +0.0 101 +5.0 -1.5 112 +5.5 -6.0 98 +5.5 -0.5
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Swedish mortgage vs government bonds
Spread vs Govies (bp)
130 110 90 70 50 30
0
1
2
3
Stadshypotek
Swedbank Hypotek
Nordea Hypotek
SEB
SCBC
Länsförsäkringar Hypotek Years to Maturity
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Source: Danske Bank Markets *Computed spread is based on a zero-coupon based government curve
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Historic slope and curvature of Swap term-structure 240
10-2y
190
5-2y
5-2-10Y
BP
140 90 40 -10 -60
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Swap spreads vs government bonds
Bond SGB1041 SGB1051 SGB1054
Swap spreads vs EUR swaps
bp Week Month YTD maj-14 6.75% -58 -2.7 +4.0 +45.3 -4.0 +9.8 aug-17 3.75% -62 -2.2 jun-22 3.50% -59 -2.0 -6.3 +6.0
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Bond bp Week Month YTD SWAP2Y nov-14 1.32% 89 +4.1 +4.3 +36.1 +8.1 +51.9 SWAP5Y nov-17 1.61% 71 +3.9 +6.0 +50.0 SWAP10Y nov-22 2.10% 36 +2.5 Source: Danske Bank Markets
Forward swap rates 6.00 5.00
Swap 1Y1Y
Swap 2Y2Y
Swap 5Y5Y
Rate
4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Forward swap spread vs euro 500 400
SW vs EU Swap 1Y1Y SW vs EU Swap 5Y5Y
SW vs EU Swap 2Y2Y
Spread (bp)
300 200 100 0 -100
Source: Danske Bank Markets
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Inflation Linked Bonds Swedish inflation linked bonds
Bond
Cpn
Mat.
Yield Week
Mth YTD Z-Cpn BEI CPI Delta Mrg Rte Nom. Bond BEI vs Nom Sprd vs DE
SGB3001
0.00% apr-14
0.35%
+3.0 +28.0 +10.5
0.39%
7.50
0.35%
SGB1041
0.39%
5.4
SGB3105
3.50% dec-15
-0.21%
-1.5 +16.5
-6.0
1.05%
3.43 -0.67%
SGB1049
1.01%
64.2
SGB3107
0.50% jun-17
-0.14%
-2.0 +11.0
-4.5
1.11%
2.24
0.03%
SGB1051
1.12%
83.1
SGB3102
4.00% dec-20
0.02%
-3.3
-5.8
1.38%
1.40
0.25%
SGB1047
1.34%
58.5
+3.3
SGB3108
0.25% jun-22
0.05%
-3.0
-1.5
-9.0
1.51%
1.06
0.14%
SGB1054
1.46%
47.5
SGB3104
3.50% dec-28
0.20%
-3.0
-10.5
-6.0
1.75%
0.75
0.48%
SGB1056
1.89%
57.5
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Swedish CPI and forecast 5.00% 4.00%
CPI YoY
BEI Spreads in Sweden and Germany DM CPI Forecast YoY
Sweden
2.00%
Germany
3.00% 2.00%
1.50%
1.00% 1.00%
0.00% -1.00%
0.50%
-2.00% 0.00%
Years to Maturity 0
5
10
Source: Danske Bank Markets * Zero-coupon based generic BEIs
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Carry @ 1.25% Repo
Forward BEI @ 1.25% Repo
Bond SGB3001 SGB3105 SGB3107 SGB3102 SGB3108 SGB3104
1M -10.6 -6.5 -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 -1.1
3M -14.7 -11.3 -6.7 -3.5 -2.6 -1.5
Source: Danske Bank Markets * Based on DM CPI forecast
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26 November 2012
6M -65.5 -34.2 -19.9 -10.7 -7.9 -4.9
Bond SGB3001 SGB3105 SGB3107 SGB3102 SGB3108 SGB3104
1M 0.46% 1.05% 1.15% 1.36% 1.48% 1.91%
3M 0.42% 1.07% 1.17% 1.38% 1.49% 1.92%
15
6M 0.75% 1.24% 1.28% 1.45% 1.55% 1.97%
Source: Danske Bank Markets * Based on DM CPI forecast
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Asset and Position Correlations Top 10 Correlations vs 10Y yld
Asset 5Y SEGOVT DE 10Y Norway 10Y 2Y SEGOVT US 10Y UK 10Y Slope S&P 500 MSCI World Eurostoxx
Top 10 Negative Corr. vs 10Y yld
Correlation 0.95 0.91 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.67 0.65 0.65
Asset ITRX Sr Fin ITRX X-over ITRX Main USDSEK Steel VIX Italy 10Y Copper GBPSEK AUDSEK
Correlation -0.62 -0.52 -0.51 -0.46 -0.41 -0.40 -0.38 -0.22 -0.21 -0.20
Source: Danske Bank Markets *Weekly data, 24
Source: Danske Bank Markets*Weekly data, 24
weeks window
weeks window
Correlation
Correlations between the yield of a 10Y generic Swedish government bond and other assets and indices 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 -0.60 -0.70 -0.80 -0.90 -1.00
Slope
Curvature
DE 10Y
US 10Y
ITRX Main
WTI Oil
OMX30
Gold
Source: Danske Bank Markets/Bloomberg
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26 November 2012
(Correlations are computed from weekly data and a 24-week rolling window of log-returns)
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is Marcus Söderberg, Quant/Strategy analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from Danske Bank upon request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts’ rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank’s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank’s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank’s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Date of first publication See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication.
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Fixed Income Market Watch
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