Investment Research
26 May 2014
Fixed Income Market Watch Sweden The Riksbank and money market Forecast repo rates given Riba pricing, Riksbank and Danske Bank Markets
Repo Eff. Date 2014-07-09 2014-09-10 2014-10-29 2014-12-17 2015-02-18 2015-04-16 2015-07-08
Riba 0.54 0.51 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.53 0.60
Diff. (bp) -21 -3 -2 -1 0 5 7
Riksbank 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.68 0.78 0.92 1.17
Danske Markets 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
FRA rates Last Year Last Month Now
1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0
0.5
1
years 1.5 2
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Surprise index
Riba prices and forecasts Riksbank Forecast DM Forecast Riba
1.60 1.40
1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets
0
0.5
1
Source: Danske Bank Markets
10-year yield momentum vs surprise index
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets
Quant/Strategy Susanne Perneby +46-8-568 805 85
[email protected]
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 10 of this report.
www.danskeresearch.com
years 1.5
Fixed Income Market Watch
TED-spread* and the spread between Riba and FRA contracts
Swap rates 2.70%
TED Spread
110 90
70 50
Actual Market Implied
2.20%
Last Year Last Month Now
1.70% 1.20%
30
10
years
0.70%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: Danske Bank Markets
* Spread between 3M Stibor and a generic 3M point on the Riba-curve Source: Danske Bank Markets
Technical chart of the week Following the large head-and-shoulder formation in the 10Y Swedish government bond note reaching its target a week ago, the rate has started to increase slightly in the market. We think the interest rate will increase more and set the first targets at 1.88%, 2.00%, 2.08% and 2.16%.
Source: Danske Bank Markets
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Nominal bonds Swedish government bonds
Mrg Rate
Spread vs DE ASW Carry
Bond
Yield 1 Week 1 Mth YTD
SGB1049
0.45%
0.0
-11.5 -38.0
0.45%
39
-33
-1.2
0.1
SGB1050
0.55%
-1.5
-13.0 -55.0
0.67%
48
-36
-0.3
0.9
SGB1051
0.75%
-2.0
-17.0 -65.0
1.17%
60
-38
0.5
1.6
SGB1052
1.08%
-3.5
-21.0 -71.5
1.83%
66
-37
1.0
1.8
SGB1047
1.41%
-2.0
-20.0 -70.5
2.48%
70
-37
1.3
1.6
SGB1054
1.64%
0.0
-20.0 -67.5
2.72%
62
-35
1.2
1.2
SGB1057
1.85%
+2.0
-19.5 -66.0
2.87%
52
-31
1.2
1.0
SGB1058
1.98%
+2.5
-19.5
3.08%
46
-31
1.2
0.9
SGB1056
2.39%
+4.0
-18.0 -62.0
3.19%
23
-24
1.0
0.5
SGB1053
2.57%
+4.5
-17.5 -67.0
3.44%
31
-12
1.0
0.3
RD
* Carry and roll down (RD) for 1M forward Source: Danske Bank Markets
ASW (bp)
German and Swedish government bonds swapped into 3M Stibor-based cash flow 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50
Swedish Govies German Govies
0
5
10
15
20
Years to Maturity 30 35
25
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Marginal rates* SEGOVT
4.20% 3.20%
SEKSWAP Stadshypotek
SHYP1583
SHYP1586
SHYP1580 SHYP1579
SHYP1578 SHYP1577 SHYP1576 SHYP1575 1.20% SGB1050 SHYP1574 SGB1049 SGB1041 0.20% 0 2 4
SGB1047
SGB1052
2.20%
SGB1054
SGB1057
SGB1051 Years to Maturity 6
8
10
12
* Computed from a zero-coupon curve Source: Danske Bank Markets
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Mortgage bonds YTD
Mrg Rte
ASW Carry
RD
-5.0
-34.0
0.66%
-10.5
-0.7
+1.0
-8.5
-44.0
0.99%
0.9
-0.2
1.7
+1.5
-11.5
-59.0
1.33%
3.7
0.6
1.8
1.17%
+1.0
-13.5
-73.5
1.78%
6.7
1.2
2.1
1.39%
-0.5
-16.5
-83.5
2.33%
13.7
1.4
2.5
1.63%
0.0
-18.5
-85.0
2.95%
22.2
1.7
2.7
2.06%
+0.5
-19.5
-80.5
3.59%
36.6
2.1
2.5
s ep-22
2.46%
+0.5
-18.5
-81.0
3.74%
42.7
2.1
1.4
3.75%
ma r-15
0.65%
+1.0
-4.5
-36.5
0.65%
-13.0
3.75%
s ep-15
0.78%
+1.5
-7.0
-39.5
0.99%
-1.0
-0.5
2.2
3.75%
jun-16
0.91%
+1.5
-11.0
-56.0
1.14%
1.4
0.2
1.5
3.75%
ma r-17
1.08%
+1.0
-12.5
-71.0
1.56%
3.6
0.7
2.0
SWH186
3.75%
dec-17
1.30%
-0.5
-15.5
-80.5
2.18%
9.8
1.3
2.5
SWH187
3.75%
s ep-18
1.55%
+0.5
-18.5
-84.5
2.84%
19.3
1.7
2.8
SWH180
5.70%
ma j-20
2.04%
0.0
-20.0
-80.5
3.57%
35.8
2.1
2.6
NDH5526
4.00%
jun-14
0.78%
0.0
0.0
-8.0
0.78%
-8.6
NDH5520
3.25%
jun-15
0.72%
+0.5
-5.0
-36.5
0.72%
-5.1
-1.2
-0.2
NDH5527
4.50%
jun-16
0.91%
+1.5
-11.0
-56.0
1.12%
1.9
0.2
1.6
NDH5528
3.00%
jun-17
1.17%
+1.0
-13.5
-73.5
1.70%
6.7
1.1
2.1
NDH5529
2.00%
jun-18
1.48%
0.0
-17.5
-84.0
2.48%
17.5
1.5
2.6
NDH5530
2.25%
jun-19
1.77%
0.0
-19.0
NDH5521
3.25%
jun-20
2.06%
+0.5
-19.5
SEB567
4.50%
jun-14
0.78%
0.0
SEB568
4.00%
jun-15
0.72%
+0.5
SEB569
4.25%
jun-16
0.91%
SEB570
3.00%
jun-17
1.17%
SEB571
3.00%
jun-18
1.48%
SEB572
3.00%
jun-19
LFH510
2.25%
jun-15
LFH508
4.00%
LFH507
4.50%
LFH511 LFH512
Bond
1 Wk 1 Mth
Cpn
Mat.
Yield
SHYP1576
6.00%
ma r-15
0.67%
+0.5
SHYP1577
6.00%
dec-15
0.82%
SHYP1578
6.00%
s ep-16
0.98%
SHYP1579
6.00%
jun-17
SHYP1580
3.00%
ma r-18
SHYP1581
3.00%
dec-18
SHYP1583
4.25%
jun-20
SHYP1586
4.50%
SWH182 SWH183 SWH184 SWH185
0.2
3.01%
25.8
1.8
2.4
-80.5
3.79%
36.6
2.0
2.6
-1.0
-8.0
0.78%
-8.6
-5.0
-36.5
0.72%
-5.1
-1.2
-0.2
+1.5
-11.0
-56.0
1.12%
1.9
0.3
1.6
+1.0
-13.5
-73.5
1.70%
6.7
1.1
2.1
0.0
-17.5
-84.0
2.51%
17.5
1.6
2.7
1.77%
0.0
-19.0
3.02%
25.8
1.8
2.4
0.72%
+0.5
-5.0
-36.5
0.72%
-5.1
-1.2
0.1
ma r-16
0.85%
+1.0
-9.5
-53.0
1.04%
0.3
0.0
1.5
jun-17
1.20%
+1.0
-14.5
-74.5
1.72%
9.7
1.2
2.3
2.50%
jun-18
1.51%
0.0
-18.0
-85.0
2.51%
20.5
1.6
2.6
2.50%
jun-19
1.80%
0.0
-20.0
-87.0
3.04%
28.8
1.9
2.4
LFH513
3.25%
s ep-20
2.13%
+1.0
-20.5
-82.5
3.66%
38.8
2.1
2.3
SCBC127
4.00%
a pr-15
0.68%
+1.0
-5.5
-35.5
0.68%
-9.4
SCBC131
4.00%
nov-15
0.81%
+1.0
-8.0
-42.0
1.01%
0.0
-0.2
1.9
SCBC132
4.00%
s ep-16
0.97%
+1.5
-11.5
-59.5
1.25%
2.2
0.5
1.6
SCBC133
4.00%
jun-17
1.15%
+0.5
-14.0
-74.0
1.75%
5.2
1.1
2.1
SCBC134
4.00%
ma r-18
1.38%
-1.0
-17.0
-84.0
2.37%
12.2
1.4
2.6
SCBC139
4.00%
dec-18
1.62%
-0.5
-19.0
-85.5
2.96%
20.7
1.7
2.7
0.1
* Carry and roll down (RD) for 1M forward Source: Danske Bank Markets
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Top 5 monthly winners
Bond
Top 5 monthly losers
bp
Bond
bp
SGB1052
mar-19 4.25%
-21.0
NDH5526
jun-14 4.00%
0.0
LFH513
sep-20 3.25%
-20.5
SHYP1575
jun-14 6.00%
-1.0
LFH512
jun-19 2.50%
-20.0
SEB567
jun-14 4.50%
-1.0
SGB1047
dec-20 5.00%
-20.0
SWH182
mar-15 3.75%
-4.5
SGB1054
jun-22 3.50%
-20.0
SHYP1576
mar-15 6.00%
-5.0
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Top 5 largest Z-score*
Top 5 yield volatility*
Z-Score
Bond
bp/day
Bond
SGB1052
mar-19 4.25%
-1.87
SGB1058
maj-25 2.50%
2.5
SGB1047
dec-20 5.00%
-1.79
SGB1056
jun-32 2.25%
2.5
SGB1049
aug-15 4.50%
-1.74
SWH187
sep-18 3.75%
2.5
SGB1054
jun-22 3.50%
-1.71
SGB1053
mar-39 3.50%
2.5
SGB1058
maj-25 2.50%
-1.67
SCBC139
dec-18 4.00%
2.5
* Std from 3M mean Source: Danske Bank Markets
* Period: past month Source: Danske Bank Markets
Top 5 ASW
Top 5 ASW losers
bp
Bond
bp
Bond
SHYP1586
sep-22 4.50%
50.2
SCBC127
apr-15 4.00%
1.5
SWH180
maj-20 5.70%
44.9
SHYP1576 mar-15 6.00%
1.4
SHYP1583
jun-20 4.25%
41.9
SWH182
mar-15 3.75%
1.3
LFH513
sep-20 3.25%
41.3
LFH510
jun-15 2.25%
1.3
NDH5521
jun-20 3.25%
39.1
SEB568
jun-15 4.00%
1.2
* Change over past month Source: Danske Bank Markets
* Change over past month Source: Danske Bank Markets
Top 5 winners total return*
Top 5 losers total return*
Bond
YTD
YTD
SGB1053
mar-39 3.50% 13.20%
NDH5526
jun-14 4.00%
0.36%
SGB1056
jun-32 2.25% 10.65%
SEB567
jun-14 4.50%
0.36%
SHYP1586
sep-22 4.50%
7.16%
SHYP1575
jun-14 6.00%
0.36%
SGB1057
nov-23 1.50%
7.01%
SHYP1576 mar-15 6.00%
0.68%
LFH513
sep-20 3.25%
6.01%
SWH182
0.70%
* Period: YTD Source: Danske Bank Markets
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Bond
26 May 2014
mar-15 3.75%
* Period: YTD Source: Danske Bank Markets
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Top 5 carry and roll down, maturity<3Y*
Top 5 carry and roll down, maturity>3Y*
Carry RD Repo
Bond
Carry RD Repo
Bond
SWH185 mar-17 3.75% 0.7 2.0 0.82%
SWH180 maj-20 5.70% 2.1 2.6 0.77%
SHYP1578 sep-16 6.00% 0.6 1.8 0.82%
NDH5521 jun-20 3.25% 2.0 2.6 0.77%
SCBC132 sep-16 4.00% 0.5 1.6 0.82%
SHYP1583 jun-20 4.25% 2.1 2.5 0.77%
SEB569
jun-16 4.25% 0.3 1.6 0.82%
SWH187 sep-18 3.75% 1.7 2.8 0.77%
NDH5527 jun-16 4.50% 0.2 1.6 0.82%
SCBC139 dec-18 4.00% 1.7 2.7 0.77%
* Period: 1M forward Source: Danske Bank Markets
* Period 1M forward Source: Danske Bank Markets
2Y spread vs SGB1050
Bond SHYP1578 SWH184 NDH5527 SEB569 LFH508 SCBC132
sep-16 6.00% jun-16 3.75% jun-16 4.50% jun-16 4.25% mar-16 4.00% sep-16 4.00%
5Y spread vs SGB1052
bp 1 Week 1 Month 44 +3.0 +1.5 36 +3.0 +2.0 37 +3.0 +2.0 37 +3.0 +2.0 31 +2.5 +3.5 42 +3.0 +1.5
YTD -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 +2.0 -4.5
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Bond SHYP1581 SWH187 NDH5529 SEB571 LFH511 SCBC134
dec-18 3.00% sep-18 3.75% jun-18 2.00% jun-18 3.00% jun-18 2.50% mar-18 4.00%
bp 1 Week 1 Month 55 +3.5 +2.5 47 +4.0 +2.5 40 +3.5 +3.5 40 +3.5 +3.5 43 +3.5 +3.0 30 +2.5 +4.0
YTD -13.5 -13.0 -12.5 -12.5 -13.5 -12.5
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Swedish mortgage vs government bonds
90
Spread vs Govies (bp)
80 70 60 50
40 30 20 10
Stadshypotek
Swedbank Hypotek
Nordea Hypotek
SCBC
LF Hypotek
SEB
0 0
1
2
3
4
5
6 Years to Maturity
* Computed spread is based on a zero-coupon based government curve Source: Danske Bank Markets
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7
Fixed Income Market Watch
Historical slope and curve of swap term-structure 240
10-2y
5-2y
5-2-10Y
190 BP
140
90 40 -10
-60
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Swap spread vs government bonds
Swap spread vs EUR swaps
Bond bp 1 Week 1 Month SGB1050 jul-16 3.00% -36 -0.7 -1.8 SGB1052 mar-19 4.25% -37 -2.6 -3.4 SGB1057 nov-23 1.50% -31 -0.9 -1.5
YTD -3.6 +3.9 +3.7
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Bond bp 1 Week 1 Month SWAP2Y maj-16 0.89% 52 +2.3 +2.3 SWAP5Y maj-19 1.50% 71 +0.1 +1.5 SWAP10Y maj-24 2.21% 60 +1.5 -1.5 Source: Danske Bank Markets
Forward swap rates 6.00
Swap 1Y1Y
Swap 2Y2Y
Swap 5Y5Y
5.00
Rate
4.00 3.00 2.00
1.00 0.00
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Forward swap spread vs euro 150
SW vs EU Swap 1Y1Y
SW vs EU Swap 2Y2Y
SW vs EU Swap 5Y5Y
100
Spread (bp)
50 0 -50 -100
Source: Danske Bank Markets
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26 May 2014
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YTD -21.2 -18.4 -9.2
Fixed Income Market Watch
Inflation-linked bonds Swedish inflation-linked bonds
Bond
Cpn
Mat.
Yield
1 Week 1 Mth YTD
Z-Cpn BEI CPI Delta Mrg Rte Nom. Bond BEI vs Nom Sprd vs DE
SGB3105 3.50% dec-15 -0.60%
+1.0
-14.0
-69.0
1.07%
6.76
-0.60%
SGB1049
1.06%
-23.5
SGB3107 0.50% jun-17 -0.41%
-1.5
-18.5
-60.5
1.13%
3.33
-0.22%
SGB1051
1.16%
8.9
SGB3102 4.00% dec-20 0.06%
-0.5
-18.5
-59.5
1.37%
1.71
0.53%
SGB1047
1.34%
45.4
SGB3108 0.25% jun-22 0.26%
+1.0
-17.5
-54.0
1.44%
1.26
0.97%
SGB1054
1.38%
45.7
SGB3109 1.00% jun-25 0.46%
+2.0
-17.5
1.56%
0.96
1.07%
SGB1058
1.51%
44.8
SGB3104 3.50% dec-28 0.59%
+2.5
-16.5
1.64%
0.84
1.24%
SGB1057
1.25%
40.8
-48.0
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Swedish CPI and forecast 6.0%
BEI* spreads in Sweden and Germany
CPI YoY Danske Bank Markets CPI Forecast YoY
5.0%
1.90%
4.0%
1.70%
3.0%
1.50%
2.0%
1.30%
1.0%
1.10%
0.0%
0.90%
-1.0%
0.70%
-2.0%
0.50%
Sweden Germany
Years to Maturity
0.30% 0
5
10
Source: Danske Bank Markets
* Zero-coupon based generic BEIs Source: Danske Bank Markets
Carry at 0.75% repo
Forward BEI at 0.75% repo
Bond SGB3105 SGB3107 SGB3102 SGB3108 SGB3109
1M 19.2 9.7 5.6 4.4 3.5
* Based on Danske Bank Markets CPI forecast Source: Danske Bank Markets
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26 May 2014
3M -19.1 -6.8 -1.3 -0.3 0.3
6M -55.3 -17.8 -3.9 -1.5 -0.1
Bond SGB3105 SGB3107 SGB3102 SGB3108 SGB3109
1M 0.83% 1.06% 1.30% 1.35% 1.49%
3M 1.16% 1.23% 1.39% 1.42% 1.54%
15
6M 1.37% 1.33% 1.45% 1.47% 1.58%
* Based on Danske Bank Markets CPI forecast Source: Danske Bank Markets
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Asset and position correlations Top 10 correlations vs 10Y yield*
Asset 5Y SEGOVT DE 10Y Slope 2Y SEGOVT UK 10Y Norway 10Y Curvature US 10Y S&P 500 USDJPY
Top 10 negative correlations vs 10Y yield*
Correlation 0.94 0.84 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.75 0.74 0.65 0.65
Asset VIX Gold Steel NOKSEK EURSEK Nibor 3M STIB3M Index GBPSEK USDSEK Baltic Dry
* Weekly data, 24-week window Source: Danske Bank Markets
Correlation -0.57 -0.32 -0.31 -0.30 -0.28 -0.26 -0.22 -0.18 -0.18 -0.12
* Weekly data, 24-week window Source: Danske Bank Markets
Correlations between the yield of 10Y generic Swedish government bond and other assets and indices 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 Correlation
0.30 0.20
0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 -0.60 -0.70
Slope
Curvature
DE 10Y
US 10Y
WTI Oil
OMX30
Gold
-0.80
* Correlations are computed from weekly data and a 24-week rolling window of log-returns Source: Danske Bank Markets
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Fixed Income Market Watch
Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is Susanne Perneby, Quant/Strategy Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts’ rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank’s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank’s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank’s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors on request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Date of first publication See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication.
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Fixed Income Market Watch
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