Housing Needs Assessment - Land of Lincoln Economic Development

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Housing Needs Assessment Rental & For-Sale Housing Needs Assessment Springfield, Illinois

Prepared For

Mr. Josh Collins Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce 1011 South 2nd Street Springfield, Illinois 62704 Effective Date

October 24, 2013 Revised: January 14, 2014

Job Reference Number

13-463 PB

155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: (614) 833-9300 Bowennational.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction II. Executive Summary III. Overview IV. Demographic Analysis V. Economic Analysis VI. Housing Supply Analysis VII. Other Housing Market Factors VIII. Housing Gap/Demand Analysis IX. Housing Development Opportunities X. Stakeholder Interviews XI. Qualifications Addendum A – Stakeholder Interview Instrument Addendum B – TIF Districts Maps Addendum C – Sources Addendum D – Glossary

I. INTRODUCTION A. PURPOSE The Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce retained Bowen National Research in August of 2013 for the purpose of conducting a Housing Needs Assessment of the City of Springfield with an emphasis on the downtown area of the City. With changing demographic and employment characteristics and trends expected over the years ahead, it is important for both public and private sectors to understand the current market conditions and projected changes that are expected to occur that will influence future housing needs. Toward that end, this report intends to: 

Provide an overview of present-day Springfield.

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Present and evaluate past, current and projected detailed demographic characteristics of Springfield.

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Present and evaluate employment characteristics and trends of Springfield.

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Determine current characteristics of all major housing components within Springfield (for-sale/ownership and rental housing alternatives).

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Calculate a housing gap by tenure and income segment within Springfield.

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Evaluate ancillary factors that affect housing market conditions and development.

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Compile local stakeholder perceptions of housing market conditions and trends, opinions on future housing needs, and identify barriers to residential development in Springfield.

By accomplishing the study’s objectives, area stakeholders, local public officials, area employers, and private housing developers can: (1) better understand Springfield’s evolving housing market, (2) modify or expand Springfield’s housing policies, and (3) enhance and/or expand Springfield’s housing market to meet future housing needs.

B. METHODOLOGIES The following methods were used by Bowen National Research to collect and analyze data for this study:

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Study Area Delineation The primary geographic scope of this study is the downtown area of Springfield with supplemental analysis of the City of Springfield, Illinois. The downtown area includes a 0.81-square mile area and is generally bounded by Carpenter Street and E. Miller Street to the north, 11th and 12th Streets to the east, East Lawrence Avenue to the south, South Pasfield Street, 2nd Street and 1st Street to the west. Since the downtown area is influenced by and has influence on the balance of the City of Springfield, we have also presented an overview of data and corresponding analyses of the balance of the City of Springfield (referred to as the Secondary Study Area) and the overall City of Springfield itself. Demographic Information Demographic data for population, households, housing, crime, and employment was secured from ESRI, Incorporated, the 2000 and 2010 United States Census, Applied Geographic Solutions, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the American Community Survey. This data has been used in its primary form and by Bowen National Research for secondary calculations. All sources are referenced throughout the report and in Addendum C of this report. Employment Information Employment information was obtained and evaluated for various geographic areas that were part of this overall study. This information included data related to wages by occupation, employment by job sector, total employment, unemployment rates, identification of top employers, and identification of largescale job expansions or contractions. Most information was obtained through the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Bowen National Research also conducted numerous interviews with local stakeholders familiar with employment characteristics and trends of the Springfield area. Housing Component Definitions This study is concerned with two major housing components: (1) forsale/ownership (both single-family and multifamily) and (2) rental (both multifamily apartments and smaller, non-conventional units). For-sale/ownership housing includes single-family homes and condominiums. Multifamily rentals include single-family homes and multifamily apartments (generally 10+ units per building). Note that for the purposes of this analysis, specific sub-groups such as students, homeless and seniors requiring special care were also evaluated.

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Housing Supply Documentation Between August and October of 2013, Bowen National Research conducted telephone research, as well as on-line research, of the Springfield housing supply. Additionally, market analysts from Bowen National Research traveled throughout Springfield in September 2013 conducting research on the housing properties identified in this study, as well as obtaining other on-site information relative to this analysis. The following data was collected on each property: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.

Property Information: Name, address, total units, and number of floors Owner/Developer and/or Property Manager: Name and telephone number Population Served (i.e. seniors vs. family, low-income vs. market-rate, etc) Available Amenities/Features: Both in-unit and within the overall project Years Built and Renovated (if applicable) Vacancy Rates Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type Square Feet and Number of Bathrooms by Bedroom Type Gross Rents or Price Points by Bedroom Type Property Type Quality Ratings * (see below) GPS Locations

* Quality ratings used in this study were established after a careful examination of the housing properties and their surrounding neighborhoods. Factors influencing the ratings include curb appeal, unit and property amenities, age, interior and exterior building conditions, parking arrangements, architectural design, landscaping and grounds, management presence, accessibility, visibility, signage, public infrastructure, condition of adjacent properties, neighborhood interviews, and area services. Information regarding for-sale single-family homes was collected by Bowen National Research in-office staff during the aforementioned research period. Home listings were gleaned from realtor.com and MLS listings. Stakeholder/Interviews Between August and October of 2013, Bowen National Research staff conducted interviews of area stakeholders. These stakeholders included individuals from a variety of trades including public officials, private residential developers, neighborhood and civic association leaders, education providers, non-profit representatives, public relations spokespersons, and other community leaders. Questions were structured to elicit opinions on a variety of matters including current housing conditions, housing challenges for area residents, barriers to housing development, future housing needs and recommendations to improve housing in Springfield. These interviews afforded participants an opportunity to voice their opinions and provide anecdotal insights about the study’s subject

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matter. Overall, approximately three dozen individual interviews were completed and evaluated. Please note that individual names and organizations have not been disclosed in order to protect the confidentiality of participants and encourage their candor. The aggregate results from these interviews are presented and evaluated in this report in Section X, while the actual stakeholder interview questions are included in Addendum A. Housing Demand Based on the demographic data for both 2012 and 2017, and taking into consideration the housing data from our field survey of area housing alternatives, we are able to project the potential number of new units the downtown Springfield market can support. 

Rental Housing – We included renter household growth, the number of units required for a balanced market, and the need for replacement housing as the demand components for new rental housing units. As part of this analysis, we accounted for vacancies reported among all rental alternatives. We concluded by providing the number of units that the market can support by three different income segments (less than $25,000, $25,000 to $40,000, and $40,000 and higher).

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For-Sale Housing – We considered potential demand from new owneroccupied household growth and need for replacement housing in our estimates for new for-sale housing. We deducted the estimated number of available for-sale housing to yield a net support base of potential for-sale housing. Demand estimates were provided for three income stratifications (less than $30,000, $30,000 to $60,000, and $60,000 and higher).

C. REPORT LIMITATIONS The intent of this report is to collect and analyze significant levels of housing data for the City of Springfield, Illinois. Bowen National Research relied on a variety of data sources to generate this report (see Addendum C). These data sources are not always verifiable; however, Bowen National Research makes a concerted effort to assure accuracy. While this is not always possible, we believe that our efforts provide an acceptable standard margin of error. Bowen National Research is not responsible for errors or omissions in the data provided by other sources. We have no present or prospective interest in any of the properties included in this report, and we have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved. Our compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analyses, opinions, or use of this study. Any reproduction or duplication of this study without the expressed approval of the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce or Bowen National Research is strictly prohibited.

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II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Purpose: Bowen National Research, a nationally recognized Ohio-based real estate research firm, was retained by The Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce in August of 2013 to conduct comprehensive research and evaluate various quantitative data and qualitative information as they relate to housing and to provide an overall housing needs assessment of the downtown area of the City of Springfield, Illinois. Work Elements: The work elements incorporated into this comprehensive report include an overview of the history and general characteristics of Springfield, analysis of more than 100 demographic metrics, evaluation of nearly 100 economic metrics, approximately three dozen community stakeholder interviews, a rental housing survey of 45 multifamily apartments with over 5,240 total units, historical for-sale housing data on more than 5,138 units and more than 885 currently available units, a rental and forsale housing gap analysis for various income segments within Springfield, and an overview of other housing factors (i.e. location of community services, crime statistics, housing programs and policies, personal mobility, etc.) that influence the housing market. The study concludes with recommendations on future housing needs and the strategies that should be considered in housing plans of the City. Study Area: The primary focus of this analysis involves the housing needs of downtown Springfield, while some consideration is given to the overall city of Springfield. The downtown area (referred to as the Primary Study Area or PSA) includes a 0.81-square mile area and is generally bounded by Carpenter Street and E. Miller Street to the north, 11th and 12th Streets to the east, East Lawrence Avenue to the south, South Pasfield Street, 2nd Street and 1st Street to the west. A map of the PSA is shown on the right. Since the downtown area is influenced by and has influence on the balance of the City of Springfield, we have also presented an overview of data and corresponding analyses of the balance of the City of Springfield (referred to as the Secondary Study Area or SSA) and the overall City of Springfield itself.

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Demographic Characteristics and Trends: We evaluated demographics for the PSA (downtown Springfield) as well as for the SSA (the balance of Springfield). Key demographic trends and projections for the study areas are summarized as follows: 

From 2000 to 2017, the PSA population is estimated to increase by only 0.15% per year. This is not only minimal, but half the growth rate of the SSA, the city as a whole, and Illinois statewide. The PSA population increased by only 25 people between 2000 and 2010, and is projected to increase by only 37 people from 2010 to 2017. This represents an average annual increase of only 4 people within the PSA from 2000 to 2017. Population growth is expected to be slightly higher for both the PSA and SSA from 2010 to 2017 than from 2000 to 2010. However, the PSA growth rate is expected to remain at half of the SSA rate. Illinois statewide growth is expected to be lower than Springfield citywide growth from 2010 to 2017.

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The PSA median age is expected to increase steadily with time (nearing 40 by 2020). In 2010, the PSA had a lower share (26.0%) of under 25 year-old people than the city as a whole (32.3%) and Illinois statewide (33.7%). In 2010, the PSA had a higher share (47.7%) of 25 to 54 year-old people than the city as a whole (40.3%) and Illinois statewide (41.3%). In 2010, the PSA had a lower share (25.7%) of over 55 year-old people than the city as a whole (27.5%), but higher than Illinois statewide (24.0%). From 2010 to 2017, the PSA age cohort with the highest expected increase in share and number is 65 to 74 years. From 2010 to 2017, the PSA age cohort with the highest expected decrease in share and number is 45 to 54 years. In 2010, 44.3% of the PSA population was under 35 years of age, while 25.7% was over 54 years of age. Only 30.0% (less than one of three people) were middle-aged (35 to 54).

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From 2000 to 2010, the number of households in the PSA decreased by 94 (7.4% decline), while households increased in the SSA, the city as a whole and Illinois statewide. However, from 2010 to 2017, the number of households in all four geographic areas is expected to increase between 2.4% and 3.6%. For the PSA, only 30 new households are expected to be added from 2012 to 2017. This represents an average annually increase of only six households. From 2010 to 2017, the PSA age cohort with the highest expected increase in share and number is 65 to 74 years. From 2010 to 2017, the PSA age cohort with the highest expected decrease in share and number is 45 to 54 years. In 2010, 26.8% of the PSA households were under 35 years of age, while 38.9% were over 54 years of age. Only 34.4% (one of three households) were middle-aged (35 to 54).

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From 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA households that rent their residence is expected to be around 88%. This is a very high share when compared to the SSA (36%), the city as whole (37%) and Illinois statewide (33%). National averages range from 25% to 30%. Conversely, from 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA households that own their residence is expected to be around 12%; a very low share. From 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA renter households with one-person is expected to be around 72%. This is a much higher share when compared to the SSA (47%), the city as whole (48.5%) and Illinois statewide (39.5%). Of PSA renter households, three of four live alone. From 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA renter households with two-persons (married couple/single-adult with child/unrelated partners) is expected to be around 17%. This is a lower share when compared to the SSA (24%), the city as whole (23.5%) and Illinois statewide (25%).

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In 2012, the share of PSA households earning less than $30,000 per year (63.2%) is expected to be much higher (twice) than the SSA (32.2%), the city as a whole (32.9%) and Illinois statewide (28.7%). In 2012, the share of PSA households earning between $30,000 and $60,000 per year (21.6%) is expected to be slightly lower than the SSA (28.8%), the city as a whole (28.8%) and Illinois statewide (27.1%). In 2012, the share of PSA households earning $60,000 or more per year (15.2%) is expected to be much lower (half) than the SSA (39.0%), the city as a whole (32.9%) and Illinois statewide (44.4%).

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For all selected years, the median household income for the PSA is approximately 50% less than the SSA, the city as a whole and Illinois statewide. This can be explained by households that are smaller (mostly one-person/one-income) and have lower earning potential due to age extremes (younger = not in/entering workforce or older = leaving/left workforce) residing within the PSA.

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The PSA had a much higher share of people living below the poverty level (36.7%) than the SSA (16.3%), the city as a whole (16.5%), and Illinois statewide (12.6%). One of three PSA senior residents (65+ years of age) was living below the poverty level.

Overall, the demographic picture of the Primary Study Area (downtown) is uniquely different from the SSA (remainder of the city). For example, PSA residents are typically less middle-aged (more often younger or older adults), less educated, more often widowed or divorced, more often non-white, more often unmarried, more often living in poverty, more transient, and residing in more densely-populated areas than their SSA counterparts. PSA households are typically smaller in size (number of persons), earning less income, more often renters, and more often childless than their SSA counterparts. The number of PSA residents and households is increasing at an extremely low rate (nearly no-growth) that is approximately half the rate of the SSA. These demographic differences must be considered when analyzing housing market support in the PSA.

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Economic Overview: The Springfield area has a high concentration of its employment within the Government, Healthcare and Finance industries. While government cutbacks have had an impact on local employment, the growth in the Healthcare industry has helped to offset the impact of government cutbacks. Like much of the nation, the Springfield area was adversely impacted by the national recession in 2008 and 2009. However, during this two-year period, total employment declined by less than 3.0% and unemployment rates for Sangamon County increased slightly. While the unemployment rate for the County improved in 2010 and 2011, the unemployment rate began to increase again in 2012 and through the summer of 2013. Despite the increase, the unemployment rate in the County has remained below state and national averages and has only fluctuated between 7.3% and 8.1% during the last five years. This is an indication of a generally stable economy. With more than $140 million dollars in planned infrastructure investments, as well as medical facility expansions, railroad line realignment and a planned multimodal facility, Springfield is poised for significant growth opportunities in terms of employment, which in turn will likely increase the population and households, and ultimately increase the demand for additional housing. Because it is anticipated that the job growth will occur among a variety of income levels, it is anticipated that housing demand will likely increase among a variety of price points and housing designs. Should most of the potential investment and development alternatives materialize over the next five years, Springfield could experience population, household and income growth well beyond those projected in this report. Subsequently, demand estimates shown in this report could be significantly higher. Housing Supply: An analysis of rental housing alternatives and residential for-sale data for Springfield was conducted and summarized as follows. Multifamily Apartment Rentals Bowen National Research identified and personally surveyed 45 rental housing projects containing a total of 5,240 units within the City of Springfield. Of these projects, 10 were located within the PSA (downtown) and the remaining 35 units were located in the SSA. These rentals have a combined occupancy rate of 95.6%, a good rate for rental housing. The following table compares the rental housing of the PSA with the SSA: Overall Market Performance by Area Rental Housing PSA SSA Total Projects 10 35 45 Total Units 1,307 3,933 5,240 Vacant Units 9 219 228 Occupancy Rate 99.3% 94.4% 95.6%

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The occupancy rate of the surveyed rental housing stock within the PSA is 99.3%, which is extremely high. In fact, of the 1,307 identified and surveyed units within the PSA, only nine were vacant. As such, there are few rental housing options available to prospective renters seeking housing in the downtown area. Often, an occupancy level over 97.0% is an indication of a possible housing shortage, which can lead to housing problems such as unusually rapid rent increases, people forced to live in substandard housing, households living in rent overburdened situations, and residents leaving the area to seek housing elsewhere. Regardless, the 99.3% occupancy rate for the downtown area indicates a residential development opportunity for downtown Springfield. The 94.4% occupancy rate of the surveyed rental product in the SSA is considered good and the 219 vacant units represents a good base of available housing that enables existing renters to move within the market and new renter households to move into the market. For-Sale Housing Supply Bowen National Research, through a review of the Multiple Listing Service data (provided by the Capital Area Association of REALTORS) for the PSA and SSA, identified both historical for-sale residential data and currently available for-sale housing stock. It should be noted that for the purposes of this analysis, we have not distinguished between PSA (downtown) and SSA markets, primarily due to the fact that virtually all for-sale activity has occurred outside the PSA (downtown Springfield). a. Historical Sales Activity The historical data includes any home sales that occurred within the study areas from January 4, 2010 to September 19, 2013. It is our opinion that an evaluation of sales activity after 2009 is representative of true market conditions of a more stabilized market following the national recession. The following tables include a sampling of more than 5,000 for-sale residential transactions that occurred within the City of Springfield by year constructed. Sales History by Year Built – (January 4, 2010 to September 19, 2013) Number Average Average Median Year Built Sold Bedrooms/Baths Square Feet Price Range Sales Price 1939 or earlier 679 3/1.5 1,545 $2,500 - $575,000 $58,000 1940 to 1950 309 3/1.5 1,394 $5,000 - $628,000 $69,900 1951 to 1960 613 3/1.5 1,399 $2,500 - $569,000 $70,200 1961 to 1970 663 3/1.75 1,718 $4,911 - $615,000 $108,000 1971 to 1980 671 3/2.0 1,842 $10,200 - $720,000 $116,000 1981 to 1990 440 3/2.25 2,035 $25,000 - $595,000 $137,250 1991 to 2000 875 3/2.5 2,424 $10,150 - $1,283,600 $166,000 2001 to present 888 3/2.75 2,697 $6,900 - $965,000 $220,000 Total 5,138 3/2.0 1,970 $2,500 - $1,283,600 $122,000 Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

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Average Days on Market 90 71 81 77 79 83 72 90 81

The distribution of housing units sold since early 2010 by year constructed indicate that the market is relatively well-balanced by the age of the housing stock. The subject market has a variety of product by development periods, with the median home prices increasing as development periods are more recent. Median home prices for product built prior to 1960 is $70,200 or lower, while product built between 1961 and 2000 has median home prices ranging from $108,000 to $166,000, depending upon development period. The market’s newest product built since 2000 has a median home price of $220,000. As such, it is clear that new product, despite the amount that has been on the market and sold since early 2010, can achieve a significant premium over older product. The average days on market for recently sold product is 81 days, with no development period exceeding 90 days on market. These are relatively short days on market, which is a positive indication of the good level of demand for for-sale product. b. Available Supply: The available for-sale housing by bedroom type in Springfield is summarized in the following table. It should be noted, while 885 units were identified, the following table only includes the 626 units that included all required data sets. A distribution of all 885 units is included in Section VI of this report: Summary of Active For-Sale Housing Supply by Bedrooms (As of September 19, 2013) Number Average Average Median of Homes Average Square Year Price Median Price Bedrooms Listed Baths Feet Built Range List Price Square Feet One-Br. 3 1.0 744 1954 $30,000 - $55,000 $33,685 $45.28 Two-Br. 155 1.25 1,212 1955 $15,000 - $575,000 $69,900 $57.67 Three-Br. 295 1.75 1,696 1969 $4,320 - $425,000 $111,900 $65.98 Four-Br. 130 2.75 3,037 1974 $24,000 - $1,300,000 $224,900 $74.05 Five-Br.+ 43 4.0 4,789 1983 $29,000 - $1,246,765 $469,900 $98.12 Total 626 2,062 1968 $4,320 - $1,300,000 $109,900 $53.30 Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

The available supply has an average year built of 1968, which is comparable to the overall historical residential unit sales year of 1972. Overall, the average unit size of available product is 2,062 square feet. A majority of the available product consists of 1.75 bathrooms or larger. The average days on market is 112, with all but the five-bedroom units having an average days on market of 114 or lower. Nearly one-half of the identified for-sale residential units included in the preceding table consist of three-bedroom units, with two- and four-bedroom units representing the next largest and nearly equal shares of units. While the range of price points for available supply is wide, ranging from $4,320 to $1,300,000, the median list price is $109,900. This is slightly lower than the median sales price ($122,000) of historical sales activity since January 2010. This indicates that the currently available supply is slightly older and priced lower than the overall market’s historical sales activity from the past three years. This may also be an indication that the market has a diminished supply of newly built available product. According to local sources, the difference between asking or list price and the actual sales price is about 4%.

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Average Days on Market 67 114 107 111 143 112

Housing Gap Analyses: Rental and for-sale housing demand estimates follow: Rental Housing Demand Estimates Summary We considered the existing rental housing supply, which includes multifamily apartments and non-conventional rentals (i.e. single-family homes, duplexes, etc.), and compared them with the potential support that is projected to exist in 2017 to estimate the projected housing gap that will exist by 2017. Such an analysis provides estimates on the surplus or deficit of housing by selected household income segments. Rental housing demand estimates for new units in downtown Springfield by 2017 follow: 2012 - 2017 Rental Demand Potential by Income Level & Rent Springfield, Illinois Primary Study Area Household Income Range Less Than $25,000 $25,000-$40,000 Rent Affordability Less Than $625 $625-$1,000 I. Growth Demand Household-Based: 2012 Renter Households 9,000 4,196 2017 Total Estimated Renter Households 8,545 4,083 New Renter Household Growth Over Projection Period (5 Years) -455 -113 II. Total Units Needed For Balanced (95.0% Occupied) Market 2012 Occupied Rental Housing Units 9,000 4,196 Estimated Vacant Units in 2017* 0 373 Estimated Total Units (Occupied & Vacant) 2017 9,000 4,569 Estimated Total Units Needed For Balanced Market 2017 450 228 Additional/Fewer Rental Housing Units Needed for Balanced Market 450 -145 III. Replacement of Existing Rental Product Total Occupied Rental Units in 2012 9,000 4,196 Multiplied by the Share of Substandard Housing Units** 6,408 1,250 Multiplied by the Share of Replacement Housing Needed *** 90 21 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2017 6,498 1,271 IV. Total Supply And Demand New Income-Qualified Renter Household -455 -113 Units Needed for Balanced Market 450 -145 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2017 6,498 1,271 Total Targeted Units Needed Over Projection Period (5 Years) 6,493 1,013 Multiplied by Potential Capture Rate 5% - 10% 5% - 10% Total Site Specific Units of Support 325 – 649 51 – 101

$40,000+ $1,000+ 6,085 6,869 785 6,085 542 6,627 331 -211 6,085 189 0 189 785 -211 189 763 5% - 10% 38 – 76

*Vacancy based on Bowen National Research field survey of each rental housing alternative and identification of planned or proposed projects that might be built in the market **Substandard housing includes the share of rent-burdened, overcrowded and lack of complete plumbing ***Considers annual replacement rate of existing rental product between 2012 and 2017

Assuming capture rates of 5% to 10%, there is a potential for at least 325 to 649 rental units targeted to households with income below $25,000, at least 51 to 101 rental units for households with incomes between $25,000 and $40,000, and at least 38 to 76 market-rate units for households with incomes of $40,000 and higher. It is critical to understand that these estimates represent potential units of demand by targeted income level. The actual number of rental units that can be supported will ultimately be II-7

contingent upon a variety of factors including the location of a project, proposed features (i.e. rents, amenities, bedroom type, unit mix, square footage, etc.), product quality, design (i.e. townhouse, single-family homes, or garden-style units), management and marketing efforts. As such, each targeted segment outlined in the table above may be able to support more or less than the number of units shown in the table. The potential number of units of support should be considered a general guideline to residential development planning. For-Sale Housing Gap Estimates We considered the existing available for-sale housing supply and compared it with the potential support that is projected to exist in 2017 to estimate the projected for-sale housing gap that will exist by 2017. Such an analysis provides estimates on the surplus or deficit of for-sale housing by selected household income segments. The following table summarizes for-sale housing demand estimates for downtown Springfield by 2017. 2012-2017 For-Sale Housing Demand by Income Level & Price Point Springfield, Illinois Primary Study Area Household Income Range Less than $30,000 $30,000-$60,000 Housing Price Affordability Less than $100,000 $100,000-$200,000 I. Growth of Owner-Occupied Households: 2012 Total Income-Qualified Owner-Occupied Households 6,310 9,275 2017 Total Income-Qualified Owner-Occupied Households 5,793 8,998 New Owner-Occupied Household Growth (2012 to 2017) -517 -277 II. Total Units Needed For Balanced (95.0% Occupied) Market Total Owner-Occupied Units in 2012 6,310 9,275 Estimated Vacant Units in 2017* 469 233 Estimated Total Units (Occupied & Vacant) 2017 6,779 9,508 Estimated Total Units Needed For Balanced Market 2017 271 380 Additional/Fewer Rental Housing Units Needed for Balanced Market -198 147 III. Replacement of Existing Rental Product Total Occupied Rental Units in 2012 6,310 9,275 Multiplied by the Share of Substandard Housing Units** 227 167 Multiplied by the Share of Demolished Units *** 95 46 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2017 322 213 IV. Total Supply And Demand New Owner-Occupied Household Growth (2012 to 2017) -517 -277 Housing Units Needed for Balanced Market -198 147 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2017 322 213 Total Potential Units Needed Over Projection Period (5 Years) -393 83 Multiplied by Potential Capture Rate X 10% X 10% Total Site Specific Units of Support 0 8 *Includes available for-sale product and for-sale product in the development pipeline **Includes substandard rate (overcrowded and lacking complete plumbing facilities) ***Considers annual demolition rate of existing for-sale product depending upon price point

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$60,000+ $200,000+ 16,340 18,259 1,919

16,340 183 16,523 661 478 16,340 0 0 0 1,919 478 0 2,397 X 2% 48

As the preceding table illustrates, there is a deficit of for-sale housing of 8 units priced between $100,000 and $199,000, as well as 48 units priced above $200,000. The lack of growth among low-income households combined with the large inventory of lowend priced housing product yields no support for product priced under $100,000. While there is some support for product priced between $100,000 and $199,999, the projected loss of households and the fair base of inventory limit the potential for such product. However, the significant household growth projected for higher income households will create an opportunity for high-end product. Assuming the downtown can capture 2% of this market yields potential support for up to 48 units priced at $200,000 or higher. Stakeholder Interviews: Representatives of Bowen National Research interviewed approximately 36 community leaders who are from Springfield. The following summarizes the general content and consensus (when applicable) of the interviews we conducted and are not necessarily the opinions or conclusions of Bowen National Research. Housing Generally, respondents indicated that the downtown housing stock is good to excellent, in terms of quality, and that there are a wide range of alternatives available. All rentals are in high demand, while there are few for-sale alternatives offered. There were mixed responses as to the affordability of the current housing stock, though most agreed that rental rates are increasing. Some respondents thought housing was not affordable to low- or moderate-income households or to students. The consensus was that there is a need for more housing, particularly rentals priced under $1,000 per month. Mid-rise product, generally with one- and two-bedroom units was cited as the most needed downtown housing product. Stakeholders generally believed that there should be a good mix of new construction and adaptive reuse as part of any future housing plans for the downtown area. Residents Stakeholders believed that a majority of residents currently residing downtown include younger people (20’s and 30’s years of age), professionals, government workers, legislators, and lobbyist. Most people believed the downtown is not likely appealing to many family households. Respondents believe there is a continued opportunity to attract young people and those affiliated with the government, as well as potential to attract empty nesters (age 55+ households seeking to downsize their homes) and seniors wanting to age in place. Many respondents also believe there may be a future opportunity for workforce housing, particularly for those within the service sector, assuming the downtown economy grows and job opportunities increase.

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Strengths and Weaknesses The consensus of stakeholders as it relates to strengths of the downtown included its unique, urban and walkable setting, with a cultural core mixed with historic uses. Accessibility to most key community services was often cited as a positive attribute. Negative qualities most often cited included the perceived lack of security/safety, parking, amenities, green space, housing affordability and availability, handicapped accessibility, and student housing opportunities. The limited number of neighborhood amenities and the fact that most entertainment opportunities close down after 5pm were also cited as negative attributes of the downtown. The lack of a grocery store that is conveniently accessible for all of downtown was commonly cited as a problem to living downtown. One of the most commonly cited obstacles to developing housing downtown was the cost associated with downtown development, as well as the perceived risk to developing housing in this area. Recommendations The majority of stakeholders believed that any successful downtown housing project will ultimately require a strong public-private partnership. Many respondents believed that efforts by the government to provide incentives and reduce risks should be continued and/or expanded. Several respondents suggested that downtown housing development should incorporate innovative designs, include some parking and resident services, and possibly offer a retail component. It was often cited that medical staff/student and college student housing should be considered as part of future downtown housing plans. Numerous respondents cited several communities that should be explored/evaluated and taken into consideration as model downtown communities, including Charleston (South Carolina), Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), Milwaukee (Wisconsin), Asheville (North Carolina), and numerous other innovative and successful cities. The establishment of a community development corporation was also cited several times as an entity that should be studied further for possible establishment in Springfield that could assist in supporting residential development in the downtown area. Bowen National Research Recommendations Based on the findings contained in this report, Bowen National Research believes a variety of residential development alternatives could be supported. The following is a summary of key recommendations.

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

There is market opportunity to support the development of a variety of rental product. Given the lack of available rental housing stock, as well as considering demographic projections, it is anticipated that the downtown market could conservatively support approximately 325 rental units affordable to households making less than $25,000 annually, approximately 50 rental units affordable to households with incomes between $25,000 and $40,000 annually, and approximately 40 rental units affordable to households with annual incomes over $40,000. Based on the demographic composition and the likely residents who would respond to downtown housing, most units should consist of one- and two-bedroom units, though some studio and three-bedroom units could be supported. Flat units in elevator-equipped structures are the most common design that should be considered, though loft-style and townhome designs should also be considered.



Given the abundance of available for-sale product affordable to owner households with incomes below $30,000, there does not appear to be a need for additional product priced below $100,000 in the downtown area. However, some product priced below $100,000 should be considered as potential candidates for repairs and modernization. The combination of sufficient available product and a decline in owner households making between $30,000 and $60,000 indicate that there is limited support for additional downtown housing priced between $100,000 and $200,000. Roughly 10 units priced at this level could be supported in the downtown area, though additional units could be supported if a unique design or features were included for such product that would enable it to draw a bigger base of support. We believe, primarily due to the significant growth of higher income households (making $60,000 or higher) projected for Springfield and the limited number of available product priced over $200,000 that there is potential for around 50 new units in downtown Springfield by 2017. In order to support as many as 50 new units at this price point, a variety of product types would need to be developed.



While the relatively low occupancy rate of nursing care facilities in Springfield likely limits the market potential for additional nursing home units at this time, we believe that the high occupancy rate combined with the strong growth of older seniors (age 75+) will present an opportunity for assisted living/special care senior housing in downtown Springfield. It is estimated that up to 90 new beds of assisted living senior housing with base pricing starting at $3,750 per bed could be supported in downtown Springfield by 2017. This assumes the project is in a good location and is well-designed and marketable. A new assisted-living facility located near the medical district could benefit from its proximity near the medical facilities within district.

II-11



While there is a large base of medical and college students, including college interns, in and around the downtown Springfield area, it is our opinion that it is unlikely a single institution of higher learning could support more 30 or 40 units on its own. We do believe, however, given the lack of medical or college student housing in downtown Springfield, there is an opportunity for larger projects to serve these segments if collaborative efforts between two or more of the institutions of higher learning are done. If some of the larger institutions were to develop a joint project, there is a potential for a variety of student housing projects in the downtown area. The following is a summary of possible student housing configurations that could be supported in downtown Springfield. o A total of approximately 160 beds of student housing that serves all students segments (i.e. undergraduates, graduates, interns, medical, and nursing students); Note that this assumes the developer of such a project is successful in establishing relationships with each school of higher learning and that such schools refer students to this project; o Conservatively, a total of around 40 beds of graduate intern student housing; There is also potential support for approximately 40 beds of undergraduate student housing in the downtown area; In order to support this many beds of college intern housing, it will be important for the developer of such a project to successfully work with the institutions (i.e. schools, businesses and government entities) that are providing the internship opportunities. o Between 30 and 46 beds of medical and nursing student housing could be supported; The larger estimate assumes the developer of the subject project establishes relationships with the medical and nursing schools and that such schools refer students to the subject project.



We identified 33 sites in the downtown Springfield area that have the potential to support residential development of notable size. This includes both vacant and underused parcels, as well as existing structures that represent candidates for adaptive reuse. These sites, which are listed and mapped in Section IX of this report, have the capacity to accommodate up to 1,700 residential units. Although not all sites will ultimately be conducive to residential development, the amount of space that exists in downtown Springfield indicates that there is a sufficient variety of development opportunities for developers to consider for residential projects. Based on our assessment of a variety of housing development factors (i.e. accessibility, resident mobility, crime, schools, proximity to community services, availability of parking, etc.), it is our opinion that the northwest portion of downtown appears to have the best potential to support successful residential development, though all sections of town could support a well designed and competitive residential development (see page IX-6 for further details).

II-12

III. OVERVIEW A. EARLY SPRINGFIELD When Illinois entered the Union in 1818, the future site of Springfield was undisturbed prairie. However, by 1819, settlers started to arrive, trapping and trading along the Sangamon River. The first settlement in the area was named Calhoun, after Senator Calhoun of South Carolina. Within a few years, Calhoun became the county seat of Sangamon County. Fertile soil and profitable trading opportunities attracted families from Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas. By 1832, Senator Calhoun fell out of favor, and the settlement changed its name to Springfield when it incorporated the same year. The new name was adopted from Springfield, Massachusetts, a community known for industrial innovation, prosperity, and a celebrated armory. The Massachusetts town had grown from a quiet frontier outpost to a thriving commercial center; something the Illinois settlers wanted to emulate. Springfield became the third capital of Illinois in 1839, thanks to the efforts of a new resident, Abraham Lincoln. His 24 years in Springfield allowed Abraham to hone his skills as a lawyer and politician. The rise of the new Whig Party during the late 1830s coincided with Mr. Lincoln’s own political popularity. Springfield Whigs represented the core values and demographic blueprint of the neophyte national party. Railroads arrived in Springfield in the early 1850s, substantially increasing economic activity. By 1861, nearly 10,000 people inhabited the prairie city as newly-elected President Lincoln boarded a train for Washington D.C. Springfield continued to prosper during the American Civil War. The city served as a political and financial center throughout the national altercation, with industries, businesses, and railroads expanding and profiting from the war effort. Camp Butler, seven miles northeast of the city, not only served as a major training camp for Illinois soldiers, but doubled as a camp for Confederate prisoners. Robust traffic to and from the camp significantly contributed to the growth of Springfield businesses during the period. Following the Civil War, coal mining was added to the city’s other primary industries of farming, railroading, banking, manufacturing and governing. Coal provided an inexpensive energy source, fueling rapid economic expansion in the area. These burgeoning industries allowed Springfield to prosper well into the 1900s. In 1923, the first gavel was struck in the new state capitol building, and by 1930, Lake Springfield started providing water and electricity for the thriving Midwest city.

III-1

B. SPRINGFIELD TODAY The city of Springfield, located in central Illinois, is approximately 100 miles northeast of St. Louis, 200 miles southwest of Chicago and 200 miles west of Indianapolis. The city encompasses 65.8 square miles of area and sits at an elevation of 586 feet above sea level. Springfield is the sixth most populated city in Illinois and serves as its state capital. In 2010, 116,250 people resided within the city limits. Springfield has never lost population since its incorporation in 1832. The city has a humid continental climate with hot, humid summers and cold, snowy winters. Annual precipitation averages 37 inches, while 21 inches of snow typically fall yearly. Interstate 55 runs north-south through the city connecting Chicago to St. Louis, while Interstate 72 runs east-west connecting Hannibal to Champaign. Historic Route 66 travels through downtown Springfield, as does Amtrak on its route between St. Louis and Chicago. Springfield Mass Transit District (SMTD) provides local public bus service to the city. Springfield is governed by a mayor-council form of government. The mayor holds primary executive authority. There are 17 city departments or offices. Council members are elected from 10 districts throughout the city, while the mayor, city clerk, and city treasurer are elected at-large. The mayor and council serve four-year, non-staggered terms. Additionally, Springfield is home to Illinois’s three branches of state government; the executive, legislative, and judicial. Springfield is nationally-known for all things “Lincoln”. The city landscape is dotted with Abraham Lincoln landmarks, some of which include the Lincoln Home National Historic Site and surrounding National Historic Park neighborhood, the Lincoln-Herndon Law Offices State Historic Site, the Lincoln Tomb State Historic Site, the Old State Capitol Building Historic Site, and the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum. The University of Illinois at Springfield, Benedictine University at Springfield, Southern Illinois University School of Medicine, St. John’s College, ITT Technical Institute, Robert Morris University, Capital Area School for Practical Nursing, Midwest Technical Institute, and Lincoln Land Community College are the notable post-secondary educational institutions that call Springfield home. Memorial Medical Center and St. John’s Hospital are the two major healthcare facilities serving the city (both located downtown). The Hoogland Center for the Arts (previously the Masonic Temple) is the downtown centerpiece for performing arts. It acts as homebase for Springfield’s theater company, ballet, orchestra, and opera. The Top 5 employers in Springfield include the State of Illinois, Memorial Medical Center, St. John’s Hospital, Springfield Public School District No. 186, and the University of Illinois at Springfield. These five entities collectively provide over 30,000 jobs for area residents.

III-2

C. PSA & SSA DELINEATIONS The focus of this analysis is to assess the market characteristics of, and to determine the housing needs for, a predetermined geographic area defined as “downtown” Springfield, Illinois. Since the entire city of Springfield affects (and is affected by) the downtown area, we have also evaluated certain metrics for the rest of the city. For this analysis, the “downtown area” is referred to as the Primary Study Area (PSA), while the “remainder of the city” is considered the Secondary Study Area (SSA). The boundaries of the PSA generally include Carpenter Street and Miller Street to the north, 11th Street and 12th Street to the east, Lawrence Avenue to the south, and Pasfield Street, 2nd Street and 1st Street to the west. Demographic data and housing supply information have been generated for both the PSA and SSA. While the SSA is considered, demand estimates focus on the PSA. A map delineating the boundaries of both the PSA and SSA is shown on the following page. A second map follows the first map illustrating the PSA in more detail.

III-3

Springfield, IL Primary and Secondary Study Areas

1:165,792

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

0

0.5

1

2

3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Springfield, IL Primary Study Area

1:15,000

Primary Study Area

0

0.05 0.1

0.2

0.3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

D. PSA & SSA DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES To acquaint readers with the Primary and Secondary Study Areas and provide them with descriptive profiles for comparisons, the following table of demographic characteristics has been provided. Illinois data is also shown for statewide profile comparisons. Data sources and reporting years vary by statistic. Detailed demographic data is included in Section IV of this report. A brief summary of the presented data is provided after the table.

III-6

DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTIC Population-Related Population (2010) Change 2000 to 2010 Change 2010 to 2017 Population Density (2010) (People/Square Mile) Population Age (2010) 24 Years & Younger Share 25 to 44 Years Share 45 to 64 Years Share 65 Years & Older Share Median Age (Years) Ethnic Composition (2010) White Share Black Share Asian Share Other Share Population Married Share (2010) Education Attainment (2010) No High School Diploma Share High School Diploma, No College Share Some College, No Degree Share College Degree Share (Associate to Doctorate) Population Below Poverty Level Share (2006-2010 Avg.) Household-Related Households (2010) Change 2000 to 2010 Change 2010 to 2017 Household Income (2010) Below $30,000/Year Share $30,000 to 59,999/Year Share $60,000/Year & Above Share Median Household Income Housing Tenure (2010) Owner Share Renter Share Household Size (2010) 1 Person Share 2 to 4 People Share 5 & More People Share Previous Residence-Year Prior (2006-2010 Avg.) In Same Residence Share Moved From Within Same County Share Moved From Within Illinois Share Moved From Different State Share Moved From Abroad Share

PSA (Downtown)

SSA (City Remainder)

ILLINOIS (Statewide)

2,312 1.1% 1.6% 2,862

113,938 2.1% 3.2% 1,754

12,416,148 3.3% 2.0% 228

26.0% 32.0% 28.5% 13.6% 39.1

32.3% 25.6% 27.6% 14.4% 38.4

34.1% 27.2% 26.1% 12.5% 36.5

58.7% 35.5% 1.4% 4.4% 26.9%

76.5% 17.8% 2.1% 3.5% 50.4%

71.5% 14.5% 4.6% 9.4% 55.4%

27.3% 37.5% 15.7% 19.5% 36.7%

12.3% 28.9% 21.3% 37.5% 16.3%

18.6% 27.7% 21.6% 36.1% 12.6%

1,183 -7.4% 2.5%

49,531 2.5% 3.6%

4,836,967 5.4% 2.4%

59.9% 23.6% 16.5% $24,285

31.5% 28.8% 39.7% $47,908

26.4% 26.5% 47.1% $56,522

12.0% 88.0%

64.8% 35.2%

67.5% 32.5%

71.2% 25.6% 3.2%

46.6% 45.7% 7.7%

38.9% 50.3% 10.8%

58.2% 26.4% 10.2% 4.4% 0.9%

81.9% 12.5% 3.2% 1.9% 0.4%

86.1% 8.9% 2.7% 1.8% 0.5%

Source: Various

III-7

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

Only 2.0% of Springfield’s citywide population resides in the PSA.



Population growth in the PSA is much lower than the SSA (half the rate).



Population density in the PSA is higher than the SSA.



Share of dependent residents (people 24 years and younger) in the PSA is lower than the SSA.



Median resident age in the PSA is slightly higher than the SSA.



Share of white residents in the PSA is lower than the SSA.



Share of black residents in the PSA is much higher than the SSA.



Share of unmarried residents in the PSA is much higher than the SSA.



Share of under-educated residents (“no” or “only” a high-school diploma) in the PSA is much higher than the SSA.



Share of residents living below the poverty level in the PSA is much higher than the SSA.



Household growth rate in the PSA is lower than the SSA.



Share of households earning less than $30,000 annually in the PSA is much higher than the SSA.



Share of households earning more than $60,000 annually in the PSA is much lower than the SSA.



Median household income in the PSA is much lower than the SSA (half the amount).



Share of renter households in the PSA is much higher than the SSA.



Share of owner householders in the PSA is much lower than the SSA.



Share of one-person households in the PSA is much higher than the SSA.



Share of residents that move in a given year in the PSA is much higher than the SSA.

III-8

IV. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS A. INTRODUCTION This section of the report evaluates key demographic characteristics for the Primary Study Area (downtown), the Secondary Study Area (remainder of the city), the city of Springfield (citywide), and Illinois (statewide). Through this analysis, unfolding trends and unique conditions are revealed regarding populations and households residing in the four selected geographic areas. Demographic comparisons among these geographies provide insights into the human composition of housing markets. Critical questions, such as the following, can be answered with this information:    

Who lives downtown and what are these people like? In what kinds of household groupings do downtown residents live? What share of people rent or own their downtown residence? Are the number of people and households living downtown increasing or decreasing over time?

This section is comprised of three major parts: population characteristics, household characteristics, and demographic theme maps. Population characteristics describe the qualities of individual people, while household characteristics describe the qualities of people living together in one residence. Theme maps graphically show varying levels (low to high concentrations) of a demographic characteristic across a geographic region. It is important to note that 2000 and 2010 demographics are based on U.S. Census data (actual count), while 2012 and 2017 data are based on calculated estimates provided by ESRI, a nationally recognized demography firm. The accuracy of these estimates depends on the realization of certain assumptions: 

Economic projections made by secondary sources materialize;



Governmental policies with respect to residential development remain consistent;



Availability of financing for residential development (i.e. mortgages, commercial loans, subsidies, Tax Credits, etc.) remains consistent;



Sufficient housing and infrastructure is provided to support projected population and household growth.

Significant unforeseen changes or fluctuations among any of the preceding assumptions could have an impact on demographic projections/estimates.

IV-1

B.

Population Characteristics Population by numbers and percent change (growth or decline) for selected years is shown in the following table:

2000 Census 2010 Census Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 2012 Estimated Change 2010-2012 Percent Change 2010-2012 2017 Projected Change 2012-2017 Percent Change 2012-2017

Total Population SSA Springfield 111,574 113,862 113,938 116,250 2,364 2,388 2.1% 2.1% 115,112 117,434 1,174 1,184 1.0% 1.0% 117,657 120,006 2,545 2,571 2.2% 2.2%

PSA 2,287 2,312 25 1.1% 2,322 10 0.4% 2,349 27 1.2%

Illinois 12,416,148 12,830,622 414,474 3.3% 12,931,164 100,542 0.8% 13,087,822 156,658 1.2%

Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

From 2000 to 2017, the PSA population is estimated to increase by only 0.15% per year. This is not only minimal, but half the growth rate of the SSA, the city as a whole, and Illinois statewide.



The PSA population increased by only 25 people between 2000 and 2010, and is estimated to increase by only 37 people from 2010 to 2017. This represents an average annual increase of only 4 people within the PSA from 2000 to 2017; a nearly “no-growth” condition.



Population growth is expected to be slightly higher for both the PSA and SSA from 2010 to 2017 than from 2000 to 2010. However, the PSA growth rate is expected to remain at half of the SSA rate. Illinois statewide growth is expected to be lower than Springfield citywide growth from 2010 to 2017.

IV-2

The following graph compares percent change in population (growth) for two time periods, 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2017: Population Trends 3.5%

Percent Change

3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

2000-2010

1.5%

2010-2017

1.0% 0.5% 0.0% PSA

SSA

Springfield

Illinois

Location

Population by age cohorts for selected years is shown in the following table: Population by Age

2000 2010 PSA 2012 2017 2000 2010 SSA 2012 2017 2000 2010 Springfield 2012 2017

<25

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

55 to 64

65 to 74

75+

567 (24.8%) 602 (26.0%) 598 (25.8%) 588 (25.0%) 36,457 (32.7%) 36,780 (32.3%) 36,674 (31.9%) 36,458 (31.0%) 37,033 (32.5%) 37,382 (32.2%) 37,272 (31.7%) 37,047 (30.9%)

425 (18.6%) 422 (18.3%) 428 (18.4%) 437 (18.6%) 15,682 (14.1%) 15,764 (13.8%) 16,143 (14.0%) 16,601 (14.1%) 16,102 (14.1%) 16,186 (13.9%) 16,571 (14.1%) 17,038 (14.2%)

402 (17.6%) 317 (13.7%) 312 (13.4%) 310 (13.2%) 17,322 (15.5%) 13,495 (11.8%) 13,217 (11.5%) 13,132 (11.2%) 17,721 (15.6%) 13,812 (11.9%) 13,529 (11.5%) 13,441 (11.2%)

282 (12.3%) 378 (16.4%) 370 (15.9%) 352 (15.0%) 16,111 (14.4%) 16,506 (14.5%) 16,143 (14.0%) 15,177 (12.9%) 16,395 (14.4%) 16,884 (14.5%) 16,514 (14.1%) 15,529 (12.9%)

201 (8.8%) 279 (12.1%) 291 (12.5%) 304 (12.9%) 9,776 (8.8%) 14,957 (13.1%) 15,739 (13.7%) 16,709 (14.2%) 9,978 (8.8%) 15,237 (13.1%) 16,029 (13.6%) 17,012 (14.2%)

178 (7.8%) 158 (6.9%) 168 (7.2%) 199 (8.5%) 7,946 (7.1%) 8,225 (7.2%) 8,831 (7.7%) 10,726 (9.1%) 8,123 (7.1%) 8,384 (7.2%) 8,999 (7.7%) 10,926 (9.1%)

233 (10.2%) 155 (6.7%) 155 (6.7%) 159 (6.8%) 8,280 (7.4%) 8,210 (7.2%) 8,365 (7.3%) 8,854 (7.5%) 8,510 (7.5%) 8,366 (7.2%) 8,520 (7.3%) 9,013 (7.5%)

IV-3

Median Age 38.5 39.1 39.3 39.6 37.1 38.4 38.7 39.2 37.1 38.4 38.7 39.2

(continued) Population by Age

2000 2010 Illinois 2012 2017

<25

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

55 to 64

65 to 74

75+

4,455,244 (35.9%) 4,375,483 (34.1%) 4,357,199 (33.7%) 4,303,771 (32.9%)

1,811,203 (14.6%) 1,775,956 (13.8%) 1,818,931 (14.1%) 1,856,292 (14.2%)

1,983,382 (16.0%) 1,725,889 (13.5%) 1,692,551 (13.1%) 1,675,224 (12.8%)

1,626,289 (13.1%) 1,870,877 (14.6%) 1,828,668 (14.1%) 1,709,441 (13.1%)

1,040,404 (8.4%) 1,473,206 (11.5%) 1,548,793 (12.0%) 1,631,076 (12.5%)

772,084 (6.2%) 849,534 (6.6%) 912,326 (7.1%) 1,099,836 (8.4%)

727,542 (5.9%) 759,677 (5.9%) 772,696 (6.0%) 812,182 (6.2%)

Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

The PSA median age is expected to increase steadily with time (nearing 40 by 2020).



In 2010, the PSA had a lower share (26.0%) of under 25 year-old people than the city as a whole (32.3%) and Illinois statewide (33.7%).



In 2010, the PSA had a higher share (47.7%) of 25 to 54 year-old people than the city as a whole (40.3%) and Illinois statewide (41.3%).



In 2010, the PSA had a lower share (25.7%) of over 55 year-old people than the city as a whole (27.5%), but higher than Illinois statewide (24.0%).



From 2010 to 2017, the PSA age cohort with the highest expected increase in share and number is 65 to 74 years.



From 2010 to 2017, the PSA age cohort with the highest expected decrease in share and number is 45 to 54 years.



In 2010, 44.3% of the PSA population was under 35 years of age, while 25.7% was over 54 years of age. Only 30.0% (less than one of three people) were middle-aged (35 to 54).

IV-4

Median Age 34.7 36.5 36.7 37.2

The following graph compares population age cohort shares for 2012: Population by Age 35.0% 30.0% 25.0%

Share

PSA 20.0%

SSA

15.0%

Springfield Illinois

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <25

25 - 34

35 - 44

45 - 54

55 - 64

65 - 74

75+

Age Range

Population by race for 2010 is shown in the following table:

Two or More Races

Total

Illinois

Some Other Race Alone

Springfield

Asian Alone

SSA

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Black or African American Alone

PSA

White Alone

Population by Race

1,357 58.7% 87,205 76.5% 88,562 76.2% 9,177,869 71.5%

821 35.5% 20,279 17.8% 21,100 18.2% 1,866,413 14.5%

32 1.4% 2,429 2.1% 2,461 2.1% 586,934 4.6%

35 1.5% 1,011 0.9% 1,046 0.9% 909,425 7.1%

66 2.9% 3,014 2.6% 3,081 2.6% 289,982 2.3%

2,312 100.0% 113,938 100.0% 116,250 100.0% 12,830,622 100.0%

Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

The PSA had a much lower “white” share (58.7%) than the SSA (76.5%), the city as a whole (76.2%), and Illinois statewide (71.5%). Conversely, the PSA had the highest “non-white” share of all four geographic areas with 41.3% (four of ten residents).



The PSA has nearly twice the share of “non-white” residents than the city as a whole.

IV-5



“Blacks” or “African-Americans” represented the largest share of “nonwhite” residents in the PSA (86.0%).

The following graph compares race shares for 2010: Population by Race 80.0% 70.0%

Share

60.0%

PSA

50.0%

SSA

40.0%

Springfield

30.0%

Illinois

20.0% 10.0% 0.0% White Alone

Black or African Amercian Alone

Asian Alone

Other / Two or More Races

Race

Population by marital status for 2000 is shown in the following table:

PSA SSA Springfield Illinois

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Population by Marital Status Not Married Married Never Married Divorced Widowed 726 386 260 506 38.7% 20.6% 13.8% 26.9% 25,426 11,501 7,014 44,600 28.7% 13.0% 7.9% 50.4% 26,153 11,888 7,275 45,106 28.9% 13.1% 8.0% 49.9% 2,804,675 867,415 653,805 5,381,858 28.9% 8.9% 6.7% 55.4%

Total 1,878 100.0% 88,541 100.0% 90,422 100.0% 9,707,753 100.0%

Source: 2000 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

The PSA had a much higher share (73.1%) of unmarried people than the SSA (49.6%), the city as a whole (50.1%), and Illinois statewide (44.6%). Of the unmarried share, over half (52.9%) had never been married.



Only one in four PSA residents was married in 2000.

IV-6

The following graph compares martial status shares for 2000: Marital Status 60.0% 50.0%

Share

40.0%

PSA SSA

30.0%

Springfield Illinois

20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Never Married

Divorced

Widowed

Married

Marital Status

Population by highest educational attainment for 2000 is shown in the following table:

Bachelor Degree

Graduate Degree

Total

Illinois

Associate Degree

Springfield

Some College, No Degree

SSA

High School Graduate

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

PSA

No High School Diploma

Population by Educational Attainment

447 27.3% 9,188 12.3% 9,634 12.7% 1,480,322 18.6%

614 37.5% 21,541 28.9% 22,154 29.1% 2,212,286 27.7%

257 15.7% 15,894 21.3% 16,151 21.2% 1,720,332 21.6%

63 3.8% 4,888 6.6% 4,951 6.5% 482,482 6.1%

158 9.6% 14,202 19.1% 14,360 18.9% 1,317,179 16.5%

100 6.1% 8,750 11.8% 8,849 11.6% 760,804 9.5%

1,639 100.0% 74,463 100.0% 76,099 100.0% 7,973,405 100.0%

Source: 2000 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

The PSA had a much higher share (27.3%) of people without high school diplomas than the SSA (12.3%), the city as a whole (12.7%), and Illinois statewide (18.6%). This also held true for people who had only graduated from high school.

IV-7



Nearly two of three (64.8%) PSA residents had not attended postsecondary education institutions. This compares to 41.8% for Springfield citywide and 46.3% Illinois statewide.

The following graph compares educational attainment for 2000: Educational Attainment 40.0% 35.0%

Share

30.0%

PSA

25.0%

SSA

20.0%

Springfield

15.0%

Illinois

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% No High School Diploma

High School Some Graduate College, No Degree

Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate Degree

Education Level

Population by poverty status for years 2006-2010 is shown in the following table:

PSA SSA Springfield Illinois

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Population by Poverty Status Income below poverty level: Income at or above poverty level: <18 18 to 64 65+ <18 18 to 64 65+ 147 572 128 185 1,046 234 6.4% 24.7% 5.6% 8.0% 45.2% 10.1% 6,920 10,470 1,112 19,667 60,747 15,022 6.1% 9.2% 1.0% 17.3% 53.3% 13.2% 7,066 10,967 1,219 19,896 61,831 15,271 6.1% 9.4% 1.0% 17.1% 53.2% 13.1% 567,432 919,356 134,626 2,642,283 7,152,478 1,414,447 4.4% 7.2% 1.0% 20.6% 55.7% 11.0%

Total 2,312 100.0% 113,938 100.0% 116,250 100.0% 12,830,622 100.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

The PSA had a much higher share of people living below the poverty level (36.7%) than the SSA (16.3%), the city as a whole (16.5%), and Illinois statewide (12.6%).



One of three PSA senior residents (65+ years of age) was living below the poverty level.

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The following graph compares poverty status for years 2006-2010: Population by Poverty Status 100.0% 90.0% 80.0%

Share

70.0%

63.3%

60.0%

83.7%

83.5%

87.4%

Income above poverty

50.0%

Income below poverty

40.0% 30.0% 20.0%

36.7%

10.0%

16.3%

16.5%

12.6%

Springfield

Illinois

0.0% PSA

SSA

Location

Population by migration (previous residence one year prior to survey) for years 2006-2010 is shown in the following table:

Moved from Abroad

Total

Illinois

Different State

Springfield

Different County In Same State

SSA

Different House in Same County

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

PSA

Same House

Population by Migration

1,345 58.2% 93,345 81.9% 94,703 81.5% 11,052,722 86.1%

611 26.4% 14,246 12.5% 14,849 12.8% 1,136,588 8.9%

235 10.2% 3,702 3.2% 3,933 3.4% 347,089 2.7%

101 4.4% 2,142 1.9% 2,242 1.9% 226,233 1.8%

20 0.9% 503 0.4% 523 0.4% 67,990 0.5%

2,312 100.0% 113,938 100.0% 116,250 100.0% 12,830,622 100.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

The PSA had a much higher share (41.8%) of people changing residences annually than the SSA (18.1%), the city as a whole (18.5%), and Illinois statewide (13.9%). This indicates a very transient population.

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

Of those PSA residents who had changed residences, 63.2% moved from within Sangamon County, 24.3% moved from within Illinois (but outside Sangamon County), 10.5% moved from another state, and 2.0% moved from abroad.

Population densities for selected years are shown in the following table:

Population Area in Square Miles Density Population Area in Square Miles Density Population Area in Square Miles Density Population Area in Square Miles Density

PSA

SSA

Springfield

Illinois

2000 2,287 0.8 2,832 111,574 65.0 1,718 113,862 65.8 1,731 12,416,148 56,341 220

Population Densities Year 2010 2012 2,312 2,322 0.8 0.8 2,862 2,875 113,938 115,112 65.0 65.0 1,754 1,772 116,250 117,434 65.8 65.8 1,768 1,786 12,830,622 12,931,164 56,341 56,341 228 230

2017 2,349 0.8 2,908 117,657 65.0 1,811 120,006 65.8 1,825 13,087,822 56,341 232

Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

The 2012 PSA population density of 2,875 people per square mile is estimated to be 64.8% higher than the SSA, and 63.6% higher than the city as a whole.



The PSA population density is expected to increase slightly from 2012 to 2017, due to minimal population growth.

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C. Household Characteristics Households by numbers and percent change (growth or decline) for selected years are shown in the following table:

2000 Census 2010 Census Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 2012 Estimated Change 2010-2012 Percent Change 2010-2012 2017 Projected Change 2012-2017 Percent Change 2012-2017

Total Households SSA Springfield 48,339 49,617 49,531 50,714 1,192 1,097 2.5% 2.2% 50,017 51,206 486 492 1.0% 1.0% 51,334 52,548 1,318 1,342 2.6% 2.6%

PSA 1,277 1,183 -94 -7.4% 1,189 6 0.5% 1,214 24 2.0%

Illinois 4,590,915 4,836,967 246,053 5.4% 4,860,598 23,631 0.5% 4,954,983 94,385 1.9%

Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

From 2000 to 2010, the number of households in the PSA decreased by 94 (7.4% decline), while households increased in the SSA, the city as a whole and Illinois statewide. However, from 2010 to 2017, the number of households in all four geographic areas is expected to increase between 2.4% and 3.6%.



For the PSA, only 30 new households are expected to be added from 2012 to 2017. This represents an average annually increase of only six households.

The following graph compares percent change in households (growth + / decline -) for two time periods, 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2017: Household Trends 8.0% 6.0%

Percent Change

4.0% 2.0%

2000-2010

0.0% -2.0%

PS A

Sp rin gf

SS A

-4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

Location

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ield

Illi no

2010-2017 is

Household heads by age cohorts for selected years are shown in the following table:

2000 2010 PSA 2012 2017 2000 2010 SSA 2012 2017 2000 2010 Springfield 2012 2017 2000 2010 Illinois 2012 2017

<25 102 (8.0%) 104 (8.4%) 109 (9.1%) 105 (8.6%) 2,932 (6.1%) 2,661 (5.5%) 2,669 (5.3%) 2,507 (4.9%) 3,034 (6.1%) 2,765 (5.5%) 2,778 (5.4%) 2,612 (5.0%) 223,205 (4.9%) 199,804 (4.1%) 195,909 (4.0%) 182,647 (3.7%)

25 to 34 222 (17.4%) 227 (18.4%) 216 (18.2%) 224 (18.5%) 8,546 (17.7%) 8,305 (17.0%) 8,585 (17.2%) 8,811 (17.2%) 8,768 (17.7%) 8,532 (17.0%) 8,801 (17.2%) 9,035 (17.2%) 829,065 (18.1%) 785,802 (16.2%) 799,988 (16.5%) 816,951 (16.5%)

Household Heads by Age 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 241 200 161 (18.8%) (15.6%) (12.6%) 173 250 224 (14.1%) (20.3%) (18.2%) 151 231 219 (12.7%) (19.4%) (18.4%) 152 218 227 (12.5%) (17.9%) (18.7%) 10,137 9,900 6,102 (21.0%) (20.5%) (12.6%) 7,613 9,748 9,395 (15.6%) (20.0%) (19.2%) 7,573 9,576 9,975 (15.1%) (19.1%) (19.9%) 7,466 8,931 10,493 (14.5%) (17.4%) (20.4%) 10,379 10,100 6,264 (20.9%) (20.4%) (12.6%) 7,787 9,998 9,619 (15.6%) (20.0%) (19.2%) 7,724 9,807 10,194 (15.1%) (19.2%) (19.9%) 7,618 9,149 10,720 (14.5%) (17.4%) (20.4%) 1,050,870 918,133 611,781 (22.9%) (20.0%) (13.3%) 902,234 1,037,565 864,401 (18.7%) (21.5%) (17.9%) 876,396 1,004,005 899,398 (18.0%) (20.7%) (18.5%) 863,451 932,452 940,430 (17.4%) (18.8%) (19.0%)

65 to 74 147 (11.5%) 129 (10.5%) 135 (11.4%) 159 (13.1%) 5,196 (10.7%) 5,442 (11.1%) 5,885 (11.8%) 7,084 (13.8%) 5,342 (10.8%) 5,571 (11.1%) 6,020 (11.8%) 7,243 (13.8%) 485,939 (10.6%) 533,952 (11.0%) 567,653 (11.7%) 678,929 (13.7%)

Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

From 2010 to 2017, the PSA age cohort with the highest expected increase in share and number is 65 to 74 years.



From 2010 to 2017, the PSA age cohort with the highest expected decrease in share and number is 45 to 54 years.



In 2010, 26.8% of the PSA households were under 35 years of age, while 38.9% were over 54 years of age. Only 34.4% (one of three households) were middle-aged (35 to 54).

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75+ 205 (16.0%) 126 (10.2%) 128 (10.7%) 129 (10.6%) 5,528 (11.4%) 5,659 (11.6%) 5,753 (11.5%) 6,041 (11.8%) 5,731 (11.6%) 5,785 (11.6%) 5,881 (11.5%) 6,171 (11.7%) 471,921 (10.3%) 513,214 (10.6%) 517,223 (10.6%) 540,097 (10.9%)

The following graph compares household age cohort shares for 2012: Household Heads By Age 25.0%

Share

20.0%

PSA

15.0%

SSA Springfield

10.0%

Illinois 5.0%

0.0% <25

25 - 34

35 - 44

45 - 54

55 - 64

65 - 74

75+

Age Range

Households by tenure for selected years are shown in the following table:

PSA

SSA

Springfield

Illinois

Household Type Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Total Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Total Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Total Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Total

2000 Number Percent 183 14.3% 1,094 85.7% 1,277 100.0% 31,112 64.4% 17,228 35.6% 48,339 100.0% 31,294 63.1% 18,322 36.9% 49,617 100.0% 3,098,808 67.5% 1,492,107 32.5% 4,590,915 100.0%

Households by Tenure 2010 2012 Number Percent Number Percent 143 12.0% 136 11.4% 1,040 88.0% 1,054 88.6% 1,183 100.0% 1,189 100.0% 32,086 64.8% 31,790 63.6% 17,445 35.2% 18,226 36.4% 49,531 100.0% 50,017 100.0% 32,228 63.5% 31,926 62.3% 18,486 36.5% 19,280 37.7% 50,714 100.0% 51,206 100.0% 3,263,635 67.5% 3,226,594 66.4% 1,573,332 32.5% 1,634,004 33.6% 4,836,967 100.0% 4,860,598 100.0%

2017 Number Percent 143 11.8% 1,071 88.2% 1,214 100.0% 32,908 64.1% 18,426 35.9% 51,334 100.0% 33,051 62.9% 19,497 37.1% 52,548 100.0% 3,319,050 67.0% 1,635,933 33.0% 4,954,983 100.0%

Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

From 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA households that rent their residence is expected to be in the range of 88%. This is a very high share when compared to the SSA (36%), the city as whole (37%) and Illinois statewide (33%). National averages range from 25% to 30%.



Conversely, from 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA households that own their residence is expected to be in the range of 12%; a very low share.

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The following graph compares household tenure shares for 2012: Households By Tenure 100.0% 90.0% 36.4%

80.0%

37.7%

33.6%

Share

70.0% 60.0%

88.6%

Renter-Occupied

50.0%

Owner-Occupied

40.0% 30.0%

63.6%

62.3%

66.4%

SSA

Springfield

Illinois

20.0% 10.0%

11.4%

0.0% PSA

Location

Renter households by size for selected years are shown in the following table: Persons Per Renter Household

2010 PSA

2012 2017 2010

SSA

2012 2017 2010

Springfield

2012 2017 2010

Illinois

2012 2017

1-Person

2-Person

3-Person

4-Person

5-Person

Total

741 (71.2%) 757 (71.9%) 783 (73.1%) 8,121 (46.6%) 8,589 (47.1%) 8,801 (47.8%) 8,848 (47.9%) 9,354 (48.5%) 9,595 (49.2%) 611,573 (38.9%) 644,568 (39.4%) 653,627 (40.0%)

186 (17.8%) 181 (17.2%) 177 (16.5%) 4,267 (24.5%) 4,399 (24.1%) 4,401 (23.9%) 4,456 (24.1%) 4,578 (23.7%) 4,574 (23.5%) 397,807 (25.3%) 411,442 (25.2%) 409,876 (25.1%)

54 (5.2%) 53 (5.1%) 51 (4.8%) 2,256 (12.9%) 2,353 (12.9%) 2,376 (12.9%) 2,314 (12.5%) 2,404 (12.5%) 2,424 (12.4%) 227,375 (14.5%) 235,857 (14.4%) 236,034 (14.4%)

27 (2.6%) 28 (2.6%) 27 (2.5%) 1,463 (8.4%) 1,515 (8.3%) 1,505 (8.2%) 1,494 (8.1%) 1,540 (8.0%) 1,529 (7.8%) 167,019 (10.6%) 170,138 (10.4%) 167,447 (10.2%)

33 (3.2%) 34 (3.2%) 33 (3.1%) 1,338 (7.7%) 1,371 (7.5%) 1,343 (7.3%) 1,373 (7.4%) 1,404 (7.3%) 1,374 (7.0%) 169,559 (10.8%) 171,999 (10.5%) 168,950 (10.3%)

1,040 (100.0%) 1,054 (100.0%) 1,071 (100.0%) 17,445 (100.0%) 18,226 (100.0%) 18,426 (100.0%) 18,486 (100.0%) 19,280 (100.0%) 19,497 (100.0%) 1,573,332 (100.0%) 1,634,004 (100.0%) 1,635,933 (100.0%)

Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

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Median H.H. Size 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.28 1.24 1.19 1.18 1.13 1.07 1.88 1.84 1.80

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

From 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA renter households with one-person is expected to be in the range of 72%. This is a much higher share when compared to the SSA (47%), the city as whole (48.5%) and Illinois statewide (39.5%). Of PSA renter households, three of four live alone.



From 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA renter households with twopersons (married couple/single-adult with child/unrelated partners) is expected to be in the range of 17%. This is a lower share when compared to the SSA (24%), the city as whole (23.5%) and Illinois statewide (25%).

The following graph compares renter household size shares for 2012: Renter Households 70.0%

Share

60.0% 50.0%

PSA

40.0%

SSA Springfield

30.0%

Illinois 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1-Person

2-Person

3-Person

Household Size

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4-Person

5-Person

Owner households by size for selected years are shown on the following table: Persons Per Owner Household 1-Person

2-Person

3-Person

4-Person

5-Person

Total

58 (40.5%) 55 (40.5%) 59 (41.1%) 9,836 (30.7%) 9,832 (30.9%) 10,312 (31.3%) 9,900 (30.7%) 9,895 (31.0%) 10,379 (31.4%) 733,033 (22.5%) 733,969 (22.7%) 765,239 (23.1%)

43 (30.0%) 40 (29.5%) 42 (29.4%) 12,069 (37.6%) 11,861 (37.3%) 12,180 (37.0%) 12,107 (37.6%) 11,894 (37.3%) 12,215 (37.0%) 1,111,305 (34.1%) 1,090,777 (33.8%) 1,115,073 (33.6%)

17 (11.7%) 16 (11.7%) 17 (11.6%) 4,568 (14.2%) 4,554 (14.3%) 4,733 (14.4%) 4,583 (14.2%) 4,568 (14.3%) 4,747 (14.4%) 529,919 (16.2%) 527,562 (16.4%) 545,143 (16.4%)

13 (8.9%) 12 (9.1%) 13 (9.1%) 3,426 (10.7%) 3,370 (10.6%) 3,446 (10.5%) 3,437 (10.7%) 3,381 (10.6%) 3,457 (10.5%) 492,238 (15.1%) 480,566 (14.9%) 488,621 (14.7%)

13 (8.9%) 12 (9.1%) 13 (8.8%) 2,187 (6.8%) 2,175 (6.8%) 2,238 (6.8%) 2,201 (6.8%) 2,189 (6.9%) 2,252 (6.8%) 397,141 (12.2%) 393,720 (12.2%) 404,974 (12.2%)

143 (100.0%) 136 (100.0%) 143 (100.0%) 32,086 (100.0%) 31,790 (100.0%) 32,908 (100.0%) 32,228 (100.0%) 31,926 (100.0%) 33,051 (100.0%) 3,263,635 (100.0%) 3,226,594 (100.0%) 3,319,050 (100.0%)

2010 PSA

2012 2017 2010

SSA

2012 2017 2010

Springfield

2012 2017 2010

Illinois

2012 2017

Median H.H. Size

Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

From 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA owner households with one-person is expected to be in the range of 41%. This is a higher share when compared to the SSA (37.5%), the city as whole (34%) and Illinois statewide (23%). Of PSA owner households, four of ten live alone.



From 2010 to 2017, the share of PSA owner households with twopersons (married couple/single-adult with child/unrelated partners) is expected to be in the range of 30%. This is a higher share when compared to the SSA (24%), the city as whole (23.5%) and Illinois statewide (25%).

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1.63 1.64 1.61 2.03 2.02 2.01 2.03 2.02 2.01 2.62 2.61 2.60

The following graph compares renter household size shares for 2012: Owner Households 45.0% 40.0%

Share

35.0% 30.0%

PSA

25.0%

SSA

20.0%

Springfield

15.0%

Illinois

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1-Person

2-Person

3-Person

4-Person

5-Person

Household Size

Households by income for selected years are shown in the following table:

<$10,000 2010 PSA

2012 2017 2010

SSA

2012 2017 2010

Springfield

2012 2017 2010

Illinois

2012 2017

241 (20.4%) 291 (24.5%) 287 (23.6%) 4,036 (8.1%) 4,087 (8.2%) 3,857 (7.5%) 4,276 (8.4%) 4,385 (8.6%) 4,151 (7.9%) 331,229 (6.8%) 362,589 (7.5%) 362,581 (7.3%)

$10,000 $19,999 263 (22.3%) 289 (24.3%) 283 (23.3%) 5,830 (11.8%) 6,265 (12.5%) 5,788 (11.3%) 6,093 (12.0%) 6,555 (12.8%) 6,073 (11.6%) 472,102 (9.8%) 512,888 (10.6%) 508,246 (10.3%)

$20,000 $29,999 203 (17.2%) 172 (14.4%) 170 (14.0%) 5,760 (11.6%) 5,734 (11.5%) 5,422 (10.6%) 5,963 (11.8%) 5,906 (11.5%) 5,593 (10.6%) 474,336 (9.8%) 515,162 (10.6%) 514,404 (10.4%)

Households by Income $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $39,999 $49,999 $59,999 122 96 61 (10.3%) (8.2%) (5.1%) 110 81 66 (9.3%) (6.8%) (5.5%) 112 89 65 (9.2%) (7.3%) (5.4%) 5,476 4,632 4,151 (11.1%) (9.4%) (8.4%) 6,069 4,484 3,908 (12.1%) (9.0%) (7.8%) 5,925 4,725 3,598 (11.5%) (9.2%) (7.0%) 5,602 4,731 4,214 (11.0%) (9.3%) (8.3%) 6,178 4,566 3,976 (12.1%) (8.9%) (7.8%) 6,036 4,814 3,666 (11.5%) (9.2%) (7.0%) 457,819 425,773 394,369 (9.5%) (8.8%) (8.2%) 483,711 435,372 392,728 (10.0%) (9.0%) (8.1%) 486,409 438,832 392,561 (9.8%) (8.9%) (7.9%)

Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

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$60,000 – $99,999 145 (12.2%) 137 (11.6%) 152 (12.5%) 11,134 (22.5%) 10,791 (21.6%) 11,110 (21.6%) 11,281 (22.2%) 10,931 (21.3%) 11,266 (21.4%) 1,153,367 (23.8%) 1,117,277 (23.0%) 1,134,044 (22.9%)

$100,000+ 51 (4.3%) 43 (3.6%) 57 (4.7%) 8,511 (17.2%) 8,680 (17.4%) 10,909 (21.3%) 8,554 (16.9%) 8,708 (17.0%) 10,948 (20.8%) 1,127,971 (23.3%) 1,040,872 (21.4%) 1,117,906 (22.6%)

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

In 2012, the share of PSA households earning less than $30,000 per year (63.2%) is expected to be much higher (twice) than the SSA (32.2%), the city as a whole (32.9%) and Illinois statewide (28.7%).



In 2012, the share of PSA households earning between $30,000 and $60,000 per year (21.6%) is expected to be slightly lower than the SSA (28.8%), the city as a whole (28.8%) and Illinois statewide (27.1%).



In 2012, the share of PSA households earning $60,000 or more per year (15.2%) is expected to be much lower (half) than the SSA (39.0%), the city as a whole (32.9%) and Illinois statewide (44.4%).

The following graph compares household income shares for 2012: Household Income 50.0% 45.0% 40.0%

Share

35.0%

PSA

30.0%

SSA

25.0%

Springfield

20.0%

Illinois

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <$20K

$20K - $40K

$40K - $60K

$60K - $100K

$100K+

Household Income

Median household income for selected years is shown in the following table:

2000 Census 2010 Census Percent Change 2000-2010 2012 Estimated Percent Change 2010-2012 2017 Projected Percent Change 2012-2017

PSA $15,757 $24,285 54.1% $20,826 -14.2% $22,191 6.6%

Median Household Income SSA Springfield $40,086 $39,389 $47,908 $47,236 19.5% 19.9% $46,366 $45,648 -3.2% -3.4% $49,894 $49,181 7.6% 7.7%

Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

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Illinois $46,634 $56,522 21.2% $53,070 -6.1% $54,255 2.2%

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

For all selected years, the median household income for the PSA is approximately 50% less than the SSA, the city as a whole and Illinois statewide. This can be explained by households that are smaller (mostly one-person/one-income) and have lower earning potential due to age extremes (younger = not in/entering workforce or older = leaving/left workforce) residing within the PSA.

The following graph compares median household income for 2012: Median Household Income $60,000

Median Income

$50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 PSA

SSA

Springfield

Location

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Illinois

To obtain a clearer picture of who currently lives in the PSA (downtown Springfield), ERSI provides a Tapestry Segmentation system that divides households into 65 distinct groups with similar socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. In 2013, five Tapestry segment groups are expected to be residing within the Springfield PSA. They include: Social Security Set, Inner City Tenants, Young & Restless, Simple Living, and Modest Income Homes. PSA Tapestry segment group data is shown in the following table:

Rank by Household Share Population Number Population Share Household Number Household Share USA Household Share Median Age White Alone Race Share Bach/Grad Degree Share Average Household Size Median Household Income Median Household Net Worth

PSA Tapestry Segment Groups with Segment Code (00) - 2013 Social Inner Young Modest Security City & Simple Income Set Tenants Restless Living Homes (65) (52) (39) (57) (62) 1 2 3 4 5 1,554 283 194 55 242 66.8% 12.1% 8.3% 2.4% 10.4% 795 189 146 36 31 66.4% 15.8% 12.2% 3.0% 2.6% 0.7% 2.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 46.4 27.9 28.6 41.3 34.6 50% 50% 58% 75% 18% 16% 25% 36% 15% 8% 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 7.8 $16,800 $33,700 $46,200 $29,400 $20,900 $10,800 $12,000 $12,900 $15,000 $10,000

Total or Weighted Average

Source: 2013 ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

Of Springfield’s total citywide population, only 2.0% live in the PSA.



Social Security Set Tapestry segment group represents two of three PSA residents and households.



The five Tapestry segment groups comprising the PSA represent only 7.5% of the national population.



Approximately 69% of PSA residents are in Tapestry segment groups with median ages above 41 years (older adults).



Approximately 20% of PSA residents are in Tapestry segment groups with median ages below 29 years (younger adults).



Approximately one out of two PSA Tapestry segment group residents is non-white in race.

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2,328 100.0% 1,197 100.0% 7.5% 41.3 48% 18% 2.0 $23,540 $11,350



The weighted share for PSA Tapestry segment group residents with bachelor/graduate degrees is 18%.



The weighted average household size for PSA Tapestry segment groups is two persons.



Approximately 72% of PSA households are in Tapestry segment groups with median incomes below $30,000 per year.



The weighted average median household income for PSA Tapestry segment groups is $23,540.



The weighted average median household net worth for PSA Tapestry segment groups is $11,350.

More detailed descriptions of the five Tapestry segment groups found in the PSA follow this page.

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D. DEMOGRAPHIC THEME MAPS The following demographic theme maps for the Springfield PSA are presented after this page:      

Household Income Household Renter Share Household Owner Share Older Adult Share (55 + years) Younger Adult Share (20 to 34 years) Population Density

IV-27

Springfield, IL 2012 Estimated Median Houshold Income

1:100,000

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Census Block Groups 2012 Median Household Income $0 - $30,000 $30,000 - $40,000 $40,000 - $50,000 $50,000 - $75,000 $75,000+

0

0.35

0.7

1.4

2.1 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Springfield, IL 2012 Estimated Renter Share

1:100,000

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Census Block Groups 2012 Renter Share of Housing 0% - 20% 20% - 40% 40% - 60% 60% - 80% 80% - 100%

0

0.35

0.7

1.4

2.1 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Springfield, IL 2012 Estimated Owner Share

1:100,000

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Census Block Groups 2012 Owner Share of Housing 0% - 20% 20% - 40% 40% - 60% 60% - 80% 80% - 100%

0

0.35

0.7

1.4

2.1 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Springfield, IL 2012 Estimated Population Age 55+

1:100,000

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Census Block Groups 2012 Population Age 55+ 0 - 199 200 - 399 400 - 599 600 - 799 800+

0

0.35

0.7

1.4

2.1 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Springfield, IL 2012 Estimated Population Age 20 to 34

1:100,000

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Census Block Groups 2012 Population Age 20-34 0 - 99 100 - 199 200 - 299 300 - 399 400+

0

0.35

0.7

1.4

2.1 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Springfield, IL 2012 Estimated Population Density

1:100,000

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Census Block Groups 2012 Population Density 0.0 - 500.0 500.1 - 1,000.0 1,000.1 - 2,000.0 2,000.1 - 3,000.0 3,000.1+

0

0.35

0.7

1.4

2.1 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

E.

SUMMARY The demographic picture of the Primary Study Area (downtown) is uniquely different from the SSA (remainder of the city). When compared to the SSA and the city as a whole, the PSA is experiencing the following:                    

Much lower population growth. Higher and increasing median age (should exceed 40 years by 2020). Lower share of dependent residents (under 25 years old). Increasing share of senior adult residents. Decreasing share of middle-aged adult residents. Higher share of non-white residents. Much higher share of black residents. Much higher share of unmarried residents. Higher shares of widowed and divorced residents. Much higher share of under-educated residents. Much higher share of residents living in poverty. Much higher share of senior adult residents living in poverty. Much higher share of residents moving each year. Higher population density. Lower household growth. Much higher share of renter households. Much higher share of one-person households (people living alone). Much higher share of households earning less than $30,000 annually. Much lower share of households earning more than $60,000 annually. Much lower median household income.

PSA residents are typically less middle-aged (more often younger or older adults), less educated, more often widowed or divorced, more often nonwhite, more often unmarried, more often living in poverty, more transient, and residing in more densely-populated areas than their SSA counterparts. PSA households are typically smaller in size (number of persons), earning less income, more often renters, and more often childless than their SSA counterparts. The number of PSA residents and households is increasing at an extremely low rate (nearly no-growth) that is approximately half the rate of the SSA. These demographic differences must be considered when analyzing housing market support in the PSA.

IV-34

V. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS A. INTRODUCTION The need for housing (demand) within a given geographic area is influenced by the number of households choosing to live there. Although the number of households within Springfield at any given time is a function of many factors, one of the primary reasons for residency is job availability. In this section, Springfield’s workforce and employment are examined. The Primary Study Area’s (PSA) relationship with the Secondary Study Area (SSA) and the City of Springfield is examined in this section. In Section B below, an overview of Springfield’s workforce is provided through several overall metrics: employment by industry, wages by occupation, total employment, unemployment rates and in-place employment trends. When available, PSA employment data is evaluated in detail and compared statistically with both the SSA and City of Springfield data. This includes an evaluation of employment by industry, employment base and growth trends, unemployment rate trends, largest employers, new and expanding employers, contracting and closing businesses, and visitors and tourism. Finally, in Section C, conclusions of economic conditions and trends are provided, along with our opinion as to how employment factors will influence future housing needs within the PSA. B.

WORKFORCE ANALYSIS Springfield comprises a large and diverse employment base with the downtown and surrounding area interdependent on each other to some degree. Because the PSA and SSA are both within the City of Springfield, they are generally influenced by similar economic factors such as taxes, government policy, and labor laws. Because of the mobility of the workforce between each study area and the reliance that each economy has with the other, it was necessary to evaluate the economies of the entire Springfield area. The following evaluates key economic metrics within the Springfield area. It should be noted that based on the availability of various economic data metrics, some information is presented only for the PSA, SSA, City of Springfield, county, MSA and/or state.

V-1

Employment by Industry The distribution of employment by industry sector in the Springfield PSA, SSA and the City of Springfield, as of 2012, was distributed as follows:

NAICS Group

PSA Employees Percent 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 6 0.0% 182 0.7% 90 0.4% 120 0.5% 528 2.1% 146 0.6% 589 2.4% 4,399 17.9% 152 0.6% 1,313 5.3% 0 0.0%

Employment by Industry SSA Employees Percent 58 0.1% 45 0.1% 19 0.0% 3,141 3.5% 2,093 2.4% 2,101 2.4% 10,884 12.2% 2,506 2.8% 1,320 1.5% 4,061 4.6% 1,325 1.5% 4,544 5.1% 139 0.2%

Springfield Employees Percent 58 0.1% 45 0.0% 25 0.0% 3,323 2.9% 2,184 1.9% 2,221 2.0% 11,412 10.0% 2,652 2.3% 1,910 1.7% 8,460 7.4% 1,477 1.3% 5,857 5.2% 139 0.1%

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Administrative, Support, Waste Management 174 0.7% 1,373 1.5% 1,548 & Remediation Services 347 1.4% 5,901 6.6% 6,247 Educational Services 4,719 19.2% 13,133 14.8% 17,851 Health Care & Social Assistance 237 1.0% 1,048 1.2% 1,285 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 1,268 5.2% 7,617 8.6% 8,884 Accommodation & Food Services 761 3.1% 5,689 6.4% 6,450 Other Services (Except Public Administration) 9,520 38.7% 21,786 24.5% 31,307 Public Administration 63 0.3% 207 0.2% 270 Non-classifiable 24,614 100.0% 88,990 100.0% 113,605 Total *Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research E.P.E. - Average Employees Per Establishment Note: Since this survey is conducted of establishments and not of residents, some employees may not live within the Site PMA. These employees, however, are included in our labor force calculations because their places of employment are located within the Site PMA.

The labor force within the Springfield PSA is based primarily in three sectors. Public Administration (which comprises 38.7%), Health Care & Social Assistance and Finance & Insurance comprise nearly 76% of the Site PMA labor force. While the share of Public Administration is high, it is not unusual given that Springfield serves as both the county seat of Sangamon County and the state capitol. With a large presence of medical facilities in the downtown area, the Health Care & Social Assistance job sector is also significant, comprising nearly 20% of the PSA’s employment base. Springfield’s heavy reliance on a single job sector such as Public Administration makes it vulnerable to cutbacks made in this job sector, which has had an impact in Springfield over the past decade. A pie chart illustrating the distribution of employment by job sector for the PSA is included on the following page.

V-2

1.4% 5.5% 15.7% 1.1% 7.8% 5.7% 27.6% 0.2% 100.0%

Typical wages by job category for the Springfield Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) are compared with those of Illinois in the following table: Typical Wage by Occupation Type Occupation Type Springfield MSA Management Occupations $88,490 Business and Financial Occupations $60,630 Computer and Mathematical Occupations $77,980 Architecture and Engineering Occupations $70,950 Community and Social Service Occupations $53,820 Art, Design, Entertainment and Sports Medicine Occupations $46,360 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations $74,620 Healthcare Support Occupations $27,970 Protective Service Occupations $52,420 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations $21,160 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations $27,360 Personal Care and Service Occupations $24,380 Sales and Related Occupations $30,050 Office and Administrative Support Occupations $36,930 Construction and Extraction Occupations $47,730 Installation, Maintenance and Repair Occupations $45,270 Production Occupations $35,590 Transportation and Moving Occupations $27,860 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Statistics

V-3

Illinois $103,110 $70,840 $77,500 $75,690 $46,710 $50,020 $71,170 $27,480 $45,020 $21,540 $26,650 $25,340 $40,590 $35,250 $54,420 $45,940 $35,070 $34,520

Most annual blue-collar salaries range from $21,160 to $53,820 within the MSA. It is important to note that most occupational types within the MSA have generally comparable typical wages to the State of Illinois's typical wages, though bluecollar jobs appear to have lower typical wages than the state average while whitecollar jobs in the MSA appear to generally be higher than the state average. The area employment base has a diverse base of wage levels that support a variety of housing segments by price points or rents. Employment Base and Unemployment Rates The following tables were generated from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and reflect employment trends of the county in which the site is located. The table below illustrates the total employment base for Sangamon County, Illinois and the United States.

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Sangamon County Percent Total Number Change 96,166 96,806 0.7% 99,896 3.2% 101,437 1.5% 102,091 0.6% 101,337 -0.7% 99,775 -1.5% 100,859 1.1% 101,104 0.2% 99,886 -1.2% 98,349 -1.5%

Total Employment Illinois Percent Total Number Change 5,916,830 5,968,561 0.9% 6,033,421 1.1% 6,225,095 3.2% 6,322,029 1.6% 6,248,336 -1.2% 5,937,296 -5.0% 5,925,554 -0.2% 5,942,809 0.3% 6,007,953 1.1% 5,955,798 -0.9%

Source: Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics *Through July

V-4

United States Percent Total Number Change 137,936,674 138,386,944 0.3% 139,988,842 1.2% 142,328,023 1.7% 144,990,053 1.9% 146,397,529 1.0% 146,068,824 -0.2% 140,721,369 -3.7% 140,483,185 -0.2% 141,748,955 0.9% 141,772,241 0.0%

The Sangamon County employment base grew from 2003 to 2007, then experienced a notable decline in 2008 and 2009 as a result of the national recession. This decline was relatively minor compared with state and national trends. While the area experienced some job growth in 2010 and 2011, the county’s economy experienced another downturn starting in 2012. According to various sources, this decline has been primary attributed to cutbacks in government employment which is a key employment sector in Springfield, the county seat and state capitol. The following table illustrates the percent change in employment for Sangamon County and Illinois.

Unemployment rates for Sangamon County, Illinois and the United States are illustrated as follows: Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Unemployment Rate Illinois 6.7% 6.2% 5.8% 4.6% 5.1% 6.4% 10.0% 10.4% 9.7% 8.9% 9.5%

Sangamon County 5.4% 5.3% 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% 5.7% 7.3% 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7%

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *Through July

V-5

United States 5.8% 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.7% 5.8% 9.3% 9.7% 9.0% 8.7%

The unemployment rate in Sangamon County has ranged between 4.4% and 8.1%, below the state and national averages since 2003. It has generally remained stable for the past five years. The following table illustrates the monthly unemployment rate in Sangamon County for the most recent 18-month period for which data is currently available.

While the unemployment rate in Sangamon County has fluctuated over the past 18 months, it has generally remained between 6.0% and 8.0% during this time.

V-6

In-place employment reflects the total number of jobs within the county regardless of the employee's county of residence. The following illustrates the total in-place employment base for Sangamon County. Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

In-Place Employment Sangamon County Employment Change Percent Change 135,892 130,213 -5,679 -4.2% 130,927 714 0.5% 130 ,260 -667 -0.5% 129,851 -409 -0.3% 129,296 -555 -0.4% 126,577 -2,719 -2.1% 126,750 173 0.1% 129,642 2,892 2.3% 127,758 -1,884 -1.5% 122,790 -4,968 -3.9%

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *Through March

Data for 2012, the most recent year that year-end figures are available, indicates in-place employment in Sangamon County to be 127.9% of the total Sangamon County employment. This means that Sangamon County has more employed persons coming to the county from other counties for work (daytime employment) than those who both live and work there. This represents a potential opportunity for Springfield to attract workers commuting into the County to possibly consider also moving to the Springfield area. Economic Drivers & Major Employers Located in the heart of Illinois, the City of Springfield serves as the capital of the state and the county seat of Sangamon County. It has been the state capital since 1837, when Abraham Lincoln, then a young politician serving a term in the State Legislature, pushed to have it relocated from Vandalia. The Springfield Metropolitan Statistical Area covers a two-county area comprised of Menard and Sangamon counties. Menard County was established in 1839, when it was split off from Sangamon. Today, it remains largely rural with agricultural and residential uses, while in contrast, commercial activity, along with the bulk of the metro area's population, is concentrated in Sangamon.

V-7

The Sangamon County economy is not particularly diverse and with the capital of Illinois located in Springfield, Government is its largest industry. Other driving sectors include Finance & Insurance, Healthcare, Tourism, and Agriculture. With two tertiary hospitals and a medical school, Sangamon has developed into a regional healthcare center, serving a 40-county region. As for Tourism, Sangamon ranks seventh in travel expenditures among Illinois' 102 counties. Travelers come from far and wide to experience the area's rich history and attend its many festivals. Furthermore, with more than three times the national average employed in the Membership Associations & Organizations sector, Springfield hosts numerous lobbyists each year as they descend upon the capital city between the months of January and May (i.e., when the General Assembly is in session). As for agriculture, corn and soybeans are the local crops and the county is home to several companies that specialize in agribusiness. This includes Brandt Consolidated, which provides seed, crop protection, and nutrients to farms. To further diversify the local economy and lessen its reliance on the public sector, Quantum Growth Partnership was launched in 2006. The Partnership has been working to expand private sector employment growth, with Logistics as one of its key opportunities. With Springfield and Sangamon County's central Midwestern location, proximity to I-55 and I-72, and access to three major rail lines, including Canadian National, Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific, the region is well positioned for distribution. And with the planned re-routing of freight and passenger rail from Third Street to an expanded Tenth Street Corridor, more freight and passenger trains are anticipated. In fact, The State Journal-Register reported late last year that Union Pacific added two trains per day in 2012 and Amtrak is expected to add ten. Economic development officials are hopeful that businesses will be lured to the area for this reason. Sangamon County's chief employers are listed in the table below. The State of Illinois is its largest with 17,500 employees. While its headcount has dropped significantly over the years, it has stabilized and no large-scale cuts are anticipated. Still, the state government is not without issues and its financial troubles continue to exist. As for the County's other listed employers, all are considered stable or expanding. According to officials with Quantum Growth Partnership, Healthcare has seen some notable gains and both hospitals are undergoing major expansions, as is the Springfield Clinic. However, their growth has been curtailed by a shortage of skilled professionals, including registered nurses, nurse practitioners, and other trained specialists.

V-8

Employer Name State of Illinois Memorial Health System St. John's Hospital Springfield Public Schools Springfield Clinic Southern IL Univ. School of Medicine City of Springfield University of Illinois-Springfield Blue Cross/Blue Shield Horace Mann

Business Type Government Healthcare Healthcare Education Healthcare Education Government Education Insurance Insurance

Location Downtown Springfield Medical District Downtown/Medical District Springfield City Springfield City Medical District Downtown Springfield Springfield City Springfield City Downtown Springfield Total

Total Employed 17,500 4,433 3,073 2,189 1,953 1,485 1,473 1,435 1,256 1,050 35,847

Source: Quantum Growth Partnership/Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce (May 2013)

In reviewing the employer locations in the table above, note that for the purposes of this study Downtown Springfield has been defined as the area bounded by East Lawrence Avenue to the south; portions of 11th and 12th Streets to the east; portions of 1st, 2nd, and Pasfield Streets to the west, and East Carpenter Street to the north. And separately, the Mid-Illinois Medical District is bounded by Madison Street to the south, 11th Street to the east, Walnut Street to the west, and North Grand Avenue to the north, with its southern edge extending into the north end of downtown. Among major employers, those in downtown Springfield specialize in Government, Healthcare, and Insurance. Yet, while many of the state government's offices are located downtown (or along the edge), a number of its departments, along with their employees, are housed elsewhere within the city limits. As for Springfield Clinic, its main campus is located just south of downtown; however, it has a number of locations in the Medical District, as well as a few downtown and in other areas of the city. St. John's Hospital is situated in the portion of the Medical District that overlaps with downtown. A map delineating the location of the area’s largest employers is on the following page.

V-9

Springfield, IL Major Employers

Major Employers

South Illinois University School of Medicine

Primary Study Area

Memorial Health System St. John's Hospital

Secondary Study Area

Horace Mann Springfield Public Schools

State of Illinois Capitol City of Springfiled - Mayors office

Springfield Clinic

Blue Cross/Blue Shield

University of Illinois-Springfield

1:70,000

0

0.275 0.55

1.1

1.65 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

According to officials with Quantum Growth Partnership, the economic development arm of the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce, the Sangamon County economy is stable overall. With Government and Healthcare providing a solid employment base (even with the state's financial troubles), it was relatively well insulated from the nationwide economic downturn. In 2010, for instance, when the unemployment rate peaked at 10.5% nationally and at 12.2% in the state, it remained under 10% in both the City of Springfield and Sangamon County. And today, with an unemployment rate of 7.5% (in June 2013), the county continues to outperform state (9.8%) and national (7.8%) averages. However, the city's unemployment rate of 8.0% exceeds the national average and economic development officials note that downtown Springfield has diminished since the recession, with a declining daytime population and an increase of vacant office and commercial space. According to local sources, however, conditions appear to have since plateaued. While the county's economy was able to escape much of the economic hardship felt in so many communities throughout the U.S., it missed out on a strong rebound due to the State of Illinois' financial woes and its limitations on spending. In fact, some report Springfield's lack of diversity to be a threat to its economic future. Moody's Analytics, for instance, recently warned of a slowdown in its recovery and cautioned that both the Springfield MSA and State of Illinois are at risk of a future recession. Layoffs, Closures & Other Concerns As noted earlier, two of Sangamon County's major employers face troubling circumstances. The State of Illinois, its largest employer, has downsized significantly over the years, but today, there remains little room for further cuts and its headcount is presumably stable. However, its financial issues are swelling and it continues to restructure, which is concerning given the industry's impact on the local economy and particularly on downtown Springfield. The state has not only accumulated an estimated $6 to $9 billion in late payments to vendors (including local governments), but it has also accrued $100 billion in unfunded pension liabilities. And revenues are not expected to rise, especially in light of income tax rates, which were increased two years ago, but are scheduled to be partially rolled back in 2015.

V-11

As for recent downsizings, both Wells Fargo and American General have undergone some cuts. Wells Fargo Home Mortgage is Sangamon County's 11th largest employer with 940 employees. The company operates a mortgage processing center within the City of Springfield (4800 Wabash Avenue) and its workforce reportedly fluctuates with trends in refinancing. The emerging mortgage slowdown prompted a layoff of 74 workers earlier this year. Separately, American General has been in the midst of a restructuring. The company, which operates a service center on Springfield's west side, has been streamlining operations, simplifying its IT platforms, reducing its footprint, and consolidating existing businesses. Today, it occupies just two floors (down from three) at its Hollis Drive facility and its headcount continues to steadily decline. In fact, earlier this year, 27 management employees were let go, as reported in The State Journal-Register, and American General no longer falls on the county's list of major employers. Note that in 2008, American General relocated from downtown Springfield to its current location. A final concern expressed by economic development officials relates to the glut of unused commercial space in downtown Springfield. The State of Illinois has gradually been pulling its workforce out of downtown offices and relocating many of its employees to facilities elsewhere in the city. In fact, the number of state workers in downtown Springfield has fallen by an estimated 2,600 in just the last decade. Consequently, according to some sources about 600,000 square feet of empty office space exists today in downtown Springfield. With fewer workers, downtown has lost much of the vibrancy it once had. Even with the uptick in tourism and profusion of downtown attractions, visitors have had a tendency to drive directly to their destinations, rather than explore downtown by foot. Unfortunately, the decline in the daytime population and the lack of patronage from tourists have forced many small businesses, including Pease's Candy and a handful of restaurants, to close and/or relocate from downtown to other neighborhoods. With the increase in vacant office and commercial space, there may be opportunities for further residential development to replace some of the existing, reportedly obsolete buildings. Looking ahead, no further major layoffs or closures are anticipated among local employers in the near-term.

V-12

WARN Notices (Layoffs and Closures) The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN) was enacted on August 4, 1988 and became effective on February 4, 1989. WARN offers protection to workers, their families, and communities by requiring employers to provide 60 days notice in advance of covered plant closings and covered mass layoffs. In general, employers are covered by WARN if they have 100 or more employees. This does not include employees who have worked fewer than six months in the past 12 months or employees who work an average of less than 20 hours a week. Private, for-profit employers and private, nonprofit employers are covered, as are public and quasi-public entities that operate in a commercial context and are separately organized from the regular government. Regular federal, state, and local government entities that provide public services are not covered. (Additional information about WARN is available at http://www.doleta.gov/programs/factsht/warn.htm.) Since the start of 2012, there have been no WARN notices issued among Sangamon County employers.

V-13

Employment Outlook & New Developments As previously noted, several of Sangamon County's major employers are undergoing noteworthy expansions, particularly those within the healthcare arena. This includes both Memorial Health Services and St. John's Hospital, with the former completing a $145 million project to include a three-story patient care tower with 114 private rooms, six operating rooms, a new conference and training center, and an energyefficiency upgrade (as reported in The State Journal-Register and other sources). As for the latter, St. John's is developing a $41 million patient tower and a $121 million surgery modernization project. Separately, Springfield Clinic, another of the county's major employers, is growing not only by adding physicians, but also by partnering with Memorial Health Services to lease 132,000 square feet in a medical office building that is currently under construction on the campus of Memorial Medical Center in the Medical District. Another major employer to note is University of Illinois-Springfield. Last year, students overwhelmingly approved a referendum to build a student union, as reported by the university. Planning and fundraising are proceeding and a completion in 2015 is anticipated. Officials are optimistic that the student union will prove attractive to potential students and lead to future growth in enrollment. As for other pockets of development in Sangamon County, Quantum Growth Partnership reports most commercial activity to be located within the City of Springfield. This includes Legacy Pointe, a 277-acre mixed-use development situated at I-72 and MacArthur Boulevard Extension. New retailers have opened there within the last several years, including a 200,000 square foot Scheels All Sports, which welcomed its first customers in 2011. Other boutiques and restaurants have located in Legacy Pointe's town center component and looking ahead, an 80store outlet mall is planned. And separately, on the northern edge of downtown Springfield in the Medical District, a 32,000 square foot County Market Grocery Store opened earlier this year at 2nd and Carpenter Streets, as reported in The State Journal-Register. Beyond Springfield, Chatham and Sherman have seen some residential growth. According to economic development officials, there have been no other recent announcements of major new and/or expanding businesses.

V-14

Finally, with regard to infrastructure projects in Sangamon County, notable projects are cited below. 

In April, the City of Springfield approved a three-year, $86 million investment in road, storm sewer, and sidewalk repairs within the city. The project will only cover repair and maintenance costs of current infrastructure throughout the city of Springfield. Project timeline is expected to begin in 2014 with repaving 135 miles of deteriorated city streets, improve bikeways, sidewalk improvements, repairing brick streets, backlog storm sewer repairs and preventative maintenance. Funding for the various infrastructure projects will come from multiple funding sources such as: a) ½ cent sales tax increase that will go into effect January 2014, b) low interest loan from the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and c) a sewer rate increase of 5% each year until 2024.



Also in April, a proposed increase in the sewer fee was approved to fund a tenyear, $60 million investment for sewer repairs and upgrades within the city.



Two sewer treatment facilities are being upgraded. The Sugar Creek Plant improvements were recently completed, while work on the Spring Creek Wastewater Treatment Plant will likely commence next year. An increase in capacity to process more flow will result.



A Record of Decision was approved by the Federal Railroad Association to move an entire rail line within the City of Springfield. The objective of the 10th Street Corridor consolidation plan is to reduce the number of north-south rail lines to two and add nine new grade separations. Furthermore, it will facilitate further development of the proposed Chicago to St. Louis high-speed rail corridor, which passes through Springfield. The estimated cost of the long-term, phased development is $315 billion, with about 50% of the design costs committed by the state. And the city has applied for a TIGER grant to fund the construction of an underpass under a grade separation along Carpenter Street. Upon its completion, the project will combine portions of the Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific lines, moving both Amtrak passenger service and Union Pacific trains off of Third Street and onto Norfolk Southern's 10th Street tracks (between Iles and Ridgely Avenues). An increase in business and residential opportunities downtown and near the Medical District are anticipated.



As part of the rail line reconfiguration project (above), a multimodal facility is being planned to house Amtrak and a bus transfer station. Another long-term project, The State Journal-Register reports its future location to be along the 10th Street Corridor, north of Adams Street. There is hope that other transportationoriented businesses, such as Greyhound and taxis, will locate there.

V-15

Visitors & Tourism As noted earlier, when it comes to travel expenditures, Sangamon County is among the state's most lucrative, ranking seventh among 102 counties. Its major draws include Springfield's association with Abraham Lincoln, its location along the legendary Route 66, and its significance as the capital of Illinois. Tourism was particularly strong in 2012, thanks, in part to Steven Spielberg's film Lincoln, which produced a heightened awareness of Springfield's rich history and its connection to the nation's 16th president. In Springfield, Lincoln not only relocated the capital there, but he also lived there, married there, practiced law there, and was buried there. Related attractions include the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library & Museum, the Lincoln Home National Historic Site, and the Lincoln Tomb, with each hosting about 300,000 visitors last year (as reported by WUIS 91.9). The museum and home are located downtown, while the tomb is north of downtown, but still within the city limits. As for other key attractions, the Old State House (where Lincoln gave his "House Divided" speech) and the Frank Lloyd Wright Dana-Thomas House are located in downtown Springfield. Furthermore, the area hosts nearly 400 events held throughout the year, including the Illinois State Fair, the International Route 66 Mother Road Festival & Car Show, the Old Capitol Blues & BBQ, and the Taste of Springfield. The State Fair, held on the fairgrounds at Sangamon Road and North Peoria Avenue, lured more than 900,000 attendees in 2012, as reported by state fair officials. Downtown events include the International Route 66 Mother Road Festival (80,000 attendees), the Old Capitol Blues & BBQ (10,000 attendees), and the Taste of Springfield (10,000 attendees). Also popular is the Old Capitol Farmers Market, which runs from May through October and features 50 vendors spanning nearly three downtown blocks. Overall, according to the Illinois Bureau of Tourism and Springfield Convention & Visitors Bureau (and reported by WUIS 91.9), Sangamon County's tourism industry generated $388.06 million in travel expenditures last year (a 2.5% increase over 2011), as well as $22.61 million in state tax revenue and $7.22 million in local receipts. Furthermore, it supported 3,140 jobs with an annual payroll of $85.54 million (a 1.8% increase). An estimated 1.76 million site visits were recorded among area tourist attractions.

V-16

C. CONCLUSIONS The Springfield area has a high concentration of its employment within the Government, Healthcare and Finance industries. While government cutbacks have had an impact on local employment, the growth in the Healthcare industry has helped to offset the impact of government cutbacks. Like much of the nation, the Springfield area was adversely impacted by the national recession in 2008 and 2009. However, during this two-year period, total employment declined by less than 3.0% and unemployment rates for Sangamon County increased slightly. While the unemployment rate for the County improved in 2010 and 2011, the unemployment rate began to increase again in 2012 and through the summer of 2013. Despite the increase, the unemployment rate in the County has remained below state and national averages and has only fluctuated between 7.3% and 8.1% during the last five years. This is an indication of a generally stable economy. With more than $140 million dollars in planned infrastructure investments, as well as medical facility expansions, railroad line realignment and a planned multimodal facility, Springfield is poised for significant growth opportunities in terms of employment, which in turn will likely increase the population and households, and ultimately increase the demand for additional housing. Because it is anticipated that the job growth will occur among a variety of income levels, it is anticipated that housing demand will likely increase among a variety of price points and housing designs. Should most of the potential investment and development alternatives materialize over the next five years, Springfield could experience population, household and income growth well beyond those projected in this report. Subsequently, demand estimates shown in this report could be significantly higher.

V-17

VI. HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS This housing supply analysis considers both rental and for-sale housing. Understanding the historical trends, market performance, characteristics, composition, and current housing choices provide critical information as to current market conditions and future housing potential. The housing data presented and analyzed in this section includes primary data collected directly by Bowen National Research and secondary data sources including American Community Survey (ACS), U.S. Census housing information and data provided by various government entities and real estate professionals. While there are a variety of housing alternatives offered in the Springfield area, we focused our analysis on the most common alternatives. The housing structures included in this analysis are: 

Multifamily Apartments – Rental Properties generally with 10 or more units were identified and surveyed. A total of 45 multifamily properties with a total of 5,240 units were surveyed by Bowen National Research.



For-Sale Housing – We identified attached and detached for-sale housing. Some of these include individual homes, while others were part of a planned development or community, as well as attached multifamily housing such as condominiums.

For the purposes of this analysis, the housing supply information is first presented for the Primary Study Area (downtown) and compared with Secondary Study Area, which is the balance of Springfield. This analysis includes secondary Census housing data (renter- and owner-occupied), Bowen National Research’s survey of area rental alternatives, and forsale housing data (both historical sales and available housing alternatives) obtained from secondary data sources (Capital Area Association of REALTORS). In addition, we have included data and analyses of specialized housing for such groups as the homeless and college students, as well as senior care facilities (i.e. congregate care, assisted living and nursing homes). Finally, other housing dynamics such as planned or proposed housing and residential foreclosures were considered for their potential impact on housing market conditions and demand. Maps illustrating the location of various housing types are included throughout this section. Please note, the totals in some charts may not equal the sum of individual columns or rows or may vary from the total reported in other tables, due to rounding.

VI-1

A. OVERALL HOUSING SUPPLY (SECONDARY DATA) This section of area housing supply is based on secondary data sources such as the U.S. Census, American Community Survey and ESRI, and is provide for the Primary Study Area (PSA, downtown Springfield), the Secondary Study Area (SSA), the overall City of Springfield and state of Illinois, when applicable. 1. Housing Characteristics (Secondary Data) The distributions of the area housing stock within each study area in 2010 are summarized in the following table: Households by Tenure – 2010 Housing PSA SSA Springfield Tenure Number % Number % Number % 1,183 83.8% 49,531 91.2% 50,714 91.0% Occupied 143 12.0% 32,086 64.8% 32,228 63.5% Owner 1,040 88.0% 17,445 35.2% 18,486 36.5% Renter 229 16.2% 4,786 8.8% 5,015 9.0% Vacant 1,412 100.0% 54,317 100.0% 55,729 100.0% Total Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Illinois Number

%

4,836,967 3,263,635 1,573,332 459,743 5,296,710

91.3% 67.5% 32.5% 8.7% 100.0%

Based on the 2010 U.S. Census, of the 55,729 total housing units in Springfield, 9.0% were vacant, with individual vacancy rates within the smaller study areas ranging from 8.8% in the SSA to 16.2% in the PSA. In 2010, Springfield homeowners occupied 63.5% of all occupied housing units, while the remaining 36.5% were occupied by renters. These shares are considered typical for a market of similar size and with similar socioeconomic characteristics as Springfield. The share of renter households in the PSA (downtown Springfield) is significantly higher than the rest of Springfield at 88.0%. While the PSA’s vacancy rate of 16.2% is the highest among the study areas, it is not considered unusually high and is likely influenced by traditional urban flight. Households by Tenure 100.0% 90.0% 80.0%

35.2%

36.5%

64.8%

63.5%

SSA

Springfield

Share

70.0% 60.0%

88.0%

50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0%

12.0%

0.0% PSA

Location Owner-Occupied

VI-2

Renter-Occupied

Based on the 2006-2010 ACS data (the latest data available), the following is a distribution of all renter-occupied housing units in each study area by year of construction. PSA Number

Renter-Occupied Housing by Year Built SSA Springfield Number % Number %

Illinois Year Built % Number % 6 0.6% 440 2.6% 446 2.5% 41,100 2.8% 2005 to 2010 0 0.0% 739 4.3% 740 4.1% 69,094 4.7% 2000 to 2004 54 5.8% 2,563 15.0% 2,617 14.6% 113,119 7.7% 1990 to 1999 199 21.5% 2,568 15.1% 2,767 15.4% 137,156 9.3% 1980 to 1989 225 24.3% 3,432 20.1% 3,657 20.3% 233,881 15.9% 1970 to 1979 81 8.8% 1,934 11.3% 2,015 11.2% 183,445 12.5% 1960 to 1969 157 17.0% 2,782 16.3% 2,940 16.3% 277,916 18.9% 1940 to 1959 202 21.9% 2,596 15.2% 2,798 15.6% 413,549 28.1% 1939 or Earlier 925 100.0% 17,054 100.0% 17,979 100.0% 1,469,260 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

As evidenced by the table above, the largest share of the overall Springfield rental housing supply was built between 1970 and 1979 and nearly one-third was built prior to 1960. This is indicative of an older housing market. The PSA’s (downtown) rental housing stock is older and has a higher share of rental product when compared with the rest of Springfield. Further, the PSA has the smallest share (0.6%) of renter-occupied housing built between 2000 and 2010. It should be noted that residential units have been added to Springfield over the past decade but primarily outside of the downtown. Based on the 2006-2010 ACS data, the following is a distribution of all owner-occupied housing units in each study area by year of construction. PSA Number

Owner-Occupied Housing by Year Built SSA Springfield Number % Number %

Illinois Year Built % Number % 1 0.5% 790 2.5% 791 2.5% 118,966 3.6% 2005 or Later 2 0.7% 1,922 6.1% 1,923 6.0% 251,362 7.6% 2000 to 2004 0 0.1% 4,430 14.0% 4,430 13.9% 414,324 12.6% 1990 to 1999 11 4.6% 3,039 9.6% 3,050 9.5% 295,927 9.0% 1980 to 1989 11 4.5% 4,987 15.7% 4,998 15.6% 480,094 14.5% 1970 to 1979 22 9.1% 3,940 12.4% 3,962 12.4% 397,333 12.0% 1960 to 1969 53 21.7% 7,035 22.2% 7,088 22.2% 703,328 21.3% 1940 to 1959 143 58.8% 5,561 17.5% 5,705 17.9% 639,357 19.4% 1939 or Earlier 244 100.0% 31,705 100.0% 31,949 100.0% 3,300,691 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Only three owner-occupied units have been built in the PSA since 1990 and less than 1.0% of all owner-occupied units in the city of Springfield are located in the PSA (downtown). As such, very little owner-occupied housing exists in the downtown area and most of it is very old, with over three-fourths built prior to 1960.

VI-3

Based on the 2006-2010 ACS data, the following is a distribution of all renteroccupied housing by units in structure for each study area. Renter-Occupied Housing by Units in Structure Housing PSA SSA Springfield Illinois Structure Number % Number % Number % Number % 75 8.1% 5,069 29.7% 5,144 28.6% 298,092 20.3% 1; Detached 14 1.5% 1,032 6.1% 1,046 5.8% 58,900 4.0% 1; Attached 113 12.3% 3,843 22.5% 3,957 22.0% 399,309 27.2% 2 to 4 63 6.8% 2,259 13.2% 2,322 12.9% 226,350 15.4% 5 to 9 59 6.4% 1,865 10.9% 1,924 10.7% 144,766 9.9% 10 to 19 91 9.8% 597 3.5% 688 3.8% 111,352 7.6% 20 to 49 509 55.0% 1,929 11.3% 2,437 13.6% 202,409 13.8% 50+ 2 0.2% 441 2.6% 443 2.5% 27,156 1.8% Mobile Homes 0 0.0% 18 0.1% 18 0.1% 926 0.1% Boat, RV, Vans 925 100.0% 17,054 100.0% 17,979 100.0% 1,469,260 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Over one-quarter of the housing stock in Springfield consisted of single-family homes, while multifamily units (two units or larger) comprised nearly two-thirds of the housing stock. Downtown Springfield’s distribution of renter-occupied units by the number of units in structure is concentrated among multifamily structures, representing over 90% of the occupied housing stock. Areas in the SSA primarily consist of multifamily structures but at a smaller share than the PSA. Renter-Occupied Housing by Units in Structure 100.0%

90.2%

90.0%

Percent of Units

80.0% 70.0%

63.0%

61.5%

60.0% 50.0% 35.8%

40.0%

34.4%

30.0% 20.0%

9.6%

10.0%

2.7%

0.2%

2.6%

0.0% PSA

SSA

Springfield

Location Single-Family

VI-4

Multi-Family

Other

Based on the 2006-2010 ACS data, the following is a distribution of all owneroccupied housing by units in structure for each study area. Owner-Occupied Housing by Units in Structure Housing PSA SSA Springfield Illinois Structure Number % Number % Number % Number % 210 86.2% 27,092 85.5% 27,302 85.5% 2,592,095 78.5% 1; Detached 2 0.7% 2,001 6.3% 2,002 6.3% 223,587 6.8% 1; Attached 17 6.8% 680 2.1% 697 2.2% 157,510 4.8% 2 to 4 2 0.7% 135 0.4% 136 0.4% 55,003 1.7% 5 to 9 0 0.0% 118 0.4% 118 0.4% 42,171 1.3% 10 to 19 0 0.0% 79 0.3% 79 0.2% 50,859 1.5% 20 to 49 14 5.6% 79 0.3% 93 0.3% 84,221 2.6% 50+ 0 0.0% 1,520 4.8% 1,520 4.8% 94,788 2.9% Mobile Homes 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 457 0.0% Boat, RV, Vans 244 100.0% 31,705 100.0% 31,949 100.0% 3,300,691 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Nearly 90% of the owner-occupied housing stock in the PSA (downtown) consists of single-family homes, though there are only 210 of these single-family homes and only 244 owner-occupied units in the downtown area. Very few of Springfield’s owner-occupied units are located in multifamily structures. The renter- and owner-occupied household sizes within the Springfield area, based on the 2010 Census, are distributed as follows: Renter-Occupied Housing by Household Size Household PSA SSA Springfield Size Number % Number % Number % 741 71.2% 8,121 46.6% 8,848 47.9% 1-Person 186 17.8% 4,267 24.5% 4,456 24.1% 2-Person 54 5.2% 2,256 12.9% 2,314 12.5% 3-Person 27 2.6% 1,463 8.4% 1,494 8.1% 4-Person 33 3.2% 1,338 7.7% 1,373 7.4% 5+-Person 1,040 100.0% 17,445 100.0% 18,486 100.0% Total Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research Owner-Occupied Housing by Household Size Household PSA SSA Springfield Size Number % Number % Number % 58 40.5% 9,836 30.7% 9,900 30.7% 1-Person 43 30.0% 12,069 37.6% 12,107 37.6% 2-Person 17 11.7% 4,568 14.2% 4,583 14.2% 3-Person 13 8.9% 3,426 10.7% 3,437 10.7% 4-Person 13 8.9% 2,187 6.8% 2,201 6.8% 5+-Person 143 100.0% 32,086 100.0% 32,228 100.0% Total Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Illinois Number

%

611,573 397,807 227,375 167,019 169,559 1,573,332

38.9% 25.3% 14.5% 10.6% 10.8% 100.0%

Illinois Number

%

733,033 1,111,305 529,919 492,238 397,141 3,263,635

22.5% 34.1% 16.2% 15.1% 12.2% 100.0%

More than two-thirds of the renter-occupied housing units in Springfield were occupied by one- and two-person households. Large-family households, those consisting of five or more persons, represented 7.4% of the renter-occupied units. The share (89.0%) of one- and two-person renter households in the PSA is significantly greater than the share (71.1%) of such households in the SSA.

VI-5

Conversely, the shares of larger family renter households are higher in the SSA than the PSA. While the disparity of household sizes among owner-occupied households between the PSA and SSA are less significant, they are similar to the renter households. Substandard housing is an important component to consider when evaluating a housing market and potential housing need. Substandard housing is generally considered housing that 1.) Lacks complete kitchen and/or bathroom facilities, 2.) Is overcrowded, and 3.) Has a rent/cost over-burden situation. Markets with a disproportionate high share of any of the preceding substandard housing characteristics may be in need of replacement housing. As a result, we have evaluated each of these characteristics for each of the study areas. The following tables demonstrate the share of substandard housing found in the study areas, based on the presence or absence of kitchen and bathroom facilities: PSA

Renter-Occupied Housing by Kitchen Characteristics SSA Springfield

PSA

Renter-Occupied Housing by Bathroom Characteristics SSA Springfield

Illinois Kitchens Number % Number % Number % Number % 925 100.0% 16,774 98.4% 17,699 98.4% 1,447,587 98.5% Complete 0 0.0% 280 1.6% 280 1.6% 21,673 1.5% Incomplete 925 100.0% 17,054 100.0% 17,979 100.0% 1,469,260 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Illinois Kitchens Number % Number % Number % Number % 924 99.8% 16,999 99.7% 17,922 99.7% 1,459,532 99.3% Complete 2 0.2% 55 0.3% 57 0.3% 9,728 0.7% Incomplete 926 100.0% 17,054 100.0% 17,979 100.0% 1,469,260 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Based on the 2006-2010 ACS estimates, the percentage of renter-occupied housing with incomplete kitchen facilities was 1.6% in Springfield. However, only 0.3% of renter-occupied households had incomplete bathroom plumbing facilities. There are virtually no renter-occupied units in the PSA that have incomplete kitchens or bathrooms. While representing small shares, there are over 300 renter-occupied units in the SSA that have either incomplete bathrooms or kitchens.

VI-6

The share of owner-occupied housing units that lack complete kitchen or plumbing facilities for each of the study areas is summarized below: PSA

Owner-Occupied Housing by Kitchen Characteristics SSA Springfield

PSA

Owner-Occupied Housing by Bathroom Characteristics SSA Springfield

Illinois Kitchens Number % Number % Number % Number % 238 97.7% 31,611 99.7% 31,849 99.7% 3,288,667 99.6% Complete 6 2.3% 94 0.3% 100 0.3% 12,024 0.4% Incomplete 244 100.0% 31,705 100.0% 31,949 100.0% 3,300,691 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Illinois Kitchens Number % Number % Number % Number % 244 100.0% 31,656 99.8% 31,900 99.8% 3,289,753 99.7% Complete 0 0.0% 49 0.2% 49 0.2% 10,938 0.3% Incomplete 244 100.0% 31,705 100.0% 31,949 100.0% 3,300,691 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Similar to renter-occupied housing units, the owner-occupied units within each of the study areas that lack complete plumbing facilities is extremely rare, indicating that this is not an issue among owner-occupied housing. The following table illustrates the percentage of households that are living in crowded quarters, as defined by the presence of 1.01 or more occupants per room. Renter-Occupied Housing by Household Size Occupants PSA SSA Springfield Illinois Per Room Number % Number % Number % Number % 918 99.3% 16,467 96.6% 17,385 96.7% 1,398,849 95.2% < 1.0 7 0.7% 587 3.4% 594 3.3% 70,411 4.8% 1.01+ 925 100.0% 17,054 100.0% 17,979 100.0% 1,469,260 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

The number (594) of renter-occupied housing units in Springfield with 1.01 or more occupants per room and considered overcrowded represented 3.3% of the households. Of the 594 renter-occupied units in Springfield that are classified as overcrowded, over 98% are in the SSA and less than 2% are in the PSA. Therefore, overcrowded housing is not prevalent in the downtown area. A graph illustrating the distribution of renter housing units by number of persons per room follows:

VI-7

Percent of Overcrowded Households 3.5% 3.4%

3.0%

3.3%

Percent

2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5%

0.7%

0.0% PSA

SSA

Springfield

Location

The following table illustrates the percentage of owner-occupied households that are living in crowded quarters, as defined by the presence of 1.01 or more occupants per room. Owner-Occupied Housing by Household Size Occupants PSA SSA Springfield Illinois Per Room Number % Number % Number % Number % 241 98.8% 31,490 99.3% 31,732 99.3% 3,251,746 98.5% < 1.0 3 1.2% 214 0.7% 217 0.7% 48,945 1.5% 1.01+ 244 100.0% 31,705 100.0% 31,949 100.0% 3,300,691 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

Very few of the owner-occupied units in Springfield are overcrowded, with over 98% located outside the downtown area and within the SSA. Evaluating the share of income a household pays towards rent is an important factor to consider when evaluating housing needs. Households that are rent burdened (typically paying more than 30% of income towards rent) often find it difficult paying their rent or meeting other financial obligations. The following table compares the percent of household income that is applied to rent based on data provided by American Community Survey for 2006 to 2010 for each of the study areas.

VI-8

Renter-Occupied Housing by Percent of Income Paid Towards Rent Percent of PSA SSA Springfield Illinois Income Number % Number % Number % Number % 277 30.0% 3,990 23.4% 4,267 23.7% 348,647 23.7% < 20% 284 30.7% 3,950 23.2% 4,234 23.5% 328,993 22.4% 20%-30% 316 34.1% 8,051 47.2% 8,367 46.5% 689,873 47.0% 30% + 48 5.2% 1,064 6.2% 1,112 6.2% 101,747 6.9% Unknown 925 100.0% 17,054 100.0% 17,979 100.0% 1,469,260 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

An estimated 46.5% of renter-occupied households in Springfield are paying more than 30% of their income towards rent. This is considered a high share of rent burdened households but comparable to the state average. The share of rent burdened households in the PSA (34.1%) is noticeably lower than in the SSA (47.2%). This indicates that downtown rental housing may be more affordable to households currently living there. Renter-Occupied Housing by Percent of Income Paid Towards Rent

Percent of Households

60.0% 50.0%

55.4%

55.3%

46.8%

40.0% 32.0% 30.0%

23.6%

20.9%

23.6%

20.6%

20.7%

20.0% 10.0% 0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0% PSA

SSA

Springfield

Location <20%

20%-30%

30%+

Unknown

The following table illustrates the percent of income paid towards housing costs for owner-occupied housing. Owner-Occupied Housing by Percent of Income Paid Towards Housing Costs Percent of PSA SSA Springfield Illinois Income Number % Number % Number % Number % 114 46.8% 17,555 55.4% 17,670 55.3% 1,421,322 43.1% < 20% 51 20.9% 7,481 23.6% 7,532 23.6% 805,106 24.4% 20%-30% 78 32.0% 6,543 20.6% 6,621 20.7% 1,056,211 32.0% 30% + 1 0.4% 125 0.4% 126 0.4% 18,052 0.5% Unknown 244 100.0% 31,705 100.0% 31,949 100.0% 3,300,691 100.0% Total Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010); ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research

VI-9

While not as prevalent as the renter-occupied housing costs, 20.7% of Springfield homeowners pay over 30% of their income towards housing costs. The PSA (downtown) has a higher share of cost-burdened homeowners than the rest of Springfield. 2. Rental Housing Supply Analysis (Bowen National Survey) Multifamily Rental Housing During September and October of 2013, Bowen National Research surveyed (both by telephone and in-person) a total of 45 rental housing projects within Springfield, Illinois. These 45 surveyed projects represent more than half of the total rental housing projects identified within the study areas. As such, this survey represents a good base from which characteristics and trends of rental housing can be evaluated, and from which conclusions can be drawn. Projects identified, inventoried, and surveyed operate as market-rate and under a number of affordable housing programs including the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC), HUD Section 8 and Public Housing programs. Definitions of each housing program are included in Addendum D: Glossary. Managers and leasing agents at each project were surveyed to collect a variety of property information including vacancies, rental rates, design characteristics, amenities, utility responsibility, and other features. Each project was also rated based on quality and upkeep; and each was photographed and mapped as part of this survey. Data collected during our survey is presented in aggregate format for the Primary Study Area (PSA), Secondary Study Area (SSA) and the City of Springfield. Bowen National Research identified and personally surveyed 45 rental housing projects containing a total of 5,240 units within the City of Springfield. Of these projects, 10 were located within the PSA (downtown) and the remaining 35 units were located in the SSA. These rentals have a combined occupancy rate of 95.6%, a good rate for rental housing. The following table compares the rental housing of the PSA with the SSA: Overall Market Performance by Area Rental Housing PSA SSA Total Projects 10 35 45 Total Units 1,307 3,933 5,240 Vacant Units 9 219 228 Occupancy Rate 99.3% 94.4% 95.6%

VI-10

The occupancy rate of the surveyed rental housing stock within the PSA is 99.3%, which is extremely high. In fact, of the 1,307 identified and surveyed units within the PSA, only nine were vacant. As such, there are few rental housing options available to prospective renters seeking housing in the downtown area. Often, an occupancy level over 97.0% is an indication of a possible housing shortage, which can lead to housing problems such as unusually rapid rent increases, people forced to live in substandard housing, households living in rent overburdened situations, and residents leaving the area to seek housing elsewhere. Regardless, the 99.3% occupancy rate for the downtown area indicates a residential development opportunity for downtown Springfield. The 94.4% occupancy rate of the surveyed rental product in the SSA is considered good and the 219 vacant units represents a good base of available housing that enables existing renters to move within the market and new renter households to move into the market. Non-Subsidized Housing (Market-rate and Tax Credit) Numerous factors affect the ability of a project to achieve certain rents. Such factors include product quality, age, amenities offered, square footage, number of bathrooms, design, interior finishes, physical upkeep and maintenance management, marketing, utility responsibility, and location. As a result, an evaluation of median rents provides a general guide as to the typical rents that are charged in a market. As for Tax Credit units, rents are often limited by programmatic restrictions that are based on income limits. The following tables summarize the breakdown of non-subsidized (market-rate and Tax Credit) units surveyed within Springfield, comparing the PSA with the SSA. It is important to note that the Median Rents are “gross”, which includes the asking rent plus the estimated costs of tenant-paid utilities. Government-subsidized rents are not illustrated in the table below as they typically operate with rents that are agreed upon by the government and which tenants pay 30% of their income towards rent.

Bedroom/Bath Bedroom Baths Studio 1.0 One-Bedroom 1.0 One-Bedroom 1.5 Two-Bedroom 1.0 Two-Bedroom 1.5 Two-Bedroom 2.0 Three-Bedroom 1.5 Three-Bedroom 2.0 Three-Bedroom 3.0 Four-Bedroom 2.0 Total Market-rate

Market-rate Median Gross Rent Comparison Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area (Downtown) (Balance of Springfield) Percent Median Percent Median Units Vacant Rent Units Vacant Rent 54 3.7% $450 22 0.0% $452 266 1.1% $848 566 3.7% $614 6 0.0% $1,200 0 58 0.0% $917 572 5.9% $722 48 0.0% $1,148 720 11.7% $757 75 2.7% $1,202 332 6.0% $727 11 0.0% $985 0 1 0.0% $1,653 148 2.7% $1,004 10 20.0% $1,553 0 0 6 0.0% $994 529 1.7% 2,366 6.9% -

VI-11

Tax Credit, Non-Subsidized Median Gross Rent Comparison Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area Bedroom/Bath (Downtown) (Balance of Springfield) Percent Median Percent Median Bedroom Baths Units Vacant Rent Units Vacant Rent Studio 1.0 3 0.0% $422 0 One-Bedroom 1.0 63 0.0% $737 68 2.9% $641 Two-Bedroom 1.0 9 0.0% $936 155 3.9% $787 Two-Bedroom 2.0 0 243 13.6% $681 Three-Bedroom 1.5 0 41 0.0% $964 Three-Bedroom 2.0 0 84 8.3% $930 Four-Bedroom 2.0 0 40 20.0% $1,011 Total Tax Credit 75 0.0% 631 8.9% -

There are a few key observations worth noting from the rental data shown in the preceding table. The vacancy rate of the PSA’s market-rate supply of 1.7% is well below the 6.9% vacancy rate of the SSA. This disparity is even greater among the non-subsidized Tax Credit supply, where there were no vacancies among the PSA’s supply and an 8.9% vacancy rate among the SSA’s supply. As such, the nonsubsidized housing supply in the downtown area has few vacancies while there are notable vacancies among the product outside the downtown. Median gross rents (collected rents plus tenant-paid utilities) by bedroom type for the market-rate supply ranges from $450 (studio unit) to $1,653 (three-bedroom unit) within the PSA, while median market-rate rents range from $452 (studio) to $1,004 (three-bedroom) for the SSA. Generally, market-rate rents are notably higher in the PSA (downtown) than the SSA. As for Tax Credit rents, median gross rents in the PSA range from $422 (studio) to $936 (two-bedroom) and median gross rents in the SSA range from $641 (one-bedroom) to $1,011 (four-bedroom). As such, Tax Credit rents are also noticeably higher in the PSA (downtown) than in the SSA. As such, it appears that non-subsidized housing in the downtown area is in greater demand and is likely attributing to the higher rents. Market-rate Median Gross Rent

$1,200 $1,202

Median Rent

$1,000 $800

$917

$848

$722

$600

$727

$614 $400 $200 $0 1-Br/1.0-Ba

2-Br/1.0-Ba

Bedrooms/Bathrooms PSA

VI-12

SSA

2-Br/2.0-Ba

The following table illustrates the distribution of non-subsidized units and vacancies by development period for each of study area. PSA Vacancy Units Rate 313 2.6% 0 0.0% 196 0.5% 0 0.0% 95 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 604 1.5%

Year Built Before 1970 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Year Built SSA Vacancy Units Rate 432 27.5% 1,241 3.8% 756 3.3% 348 7.2% 183 1.6% 0 0.0% 37 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2,997 7.3%

Springfield Vacancy Units Rate 745 17.1% 1,241 3.8% 952 2.7% 348 7.2% 278 1.1% 0 0.0% 37 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 3,601 6.4%

*As of September

Rental Housing by Year Built

Percent of Units

50.0%

Before 1970

40.0%

1970 - 1979 30.0%

1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999

20.0%

2000 - 2005 2006 - 2013*

10.0% 0.0% PSA

SSA

Location

VI-13

Springfield

As the preceding table and graph illustrate, the majority of the rental supply in the PSA was built prior to 1970, while the largest share of product in the SSA was built between 1970 and 1979. Although low at 2.6%, vacancies in the PSA are highest among product built prior to 1970. Within the SSA, the highest vacancy rate (27.5%) is also among product built prior to 1970. While there has been very little product built in either the PSA or SSA since 2000, the few new units that were built have been well received and are in high demand as few vacancies exist among the market’s newest product. Based on this analysis, there is a clear link between age of product and demand. It is anticipated that any new and welldesigned rental product that is competitively positioned in the market will be wellreceived. Representatives of Bowen National Research personally visited many of the surveyed rental projects within Springfield and rated the quality of each property. We rated each property surveyed on a scale of "A" (highest) through "F" (lowest). All properties were rated based on quality and overall appearance (i.e. aesthetic appeal, building appearance, landscaping and grounds appearance). The following is a distribution by quality rating, units, and vacancies for each study area. PSA Quality Vacancy Rating Units Rate A 95 0.0% A94 0.0% B+ 12 0.0% B 0 B394 2.3% C+ 9 0.0% C 0 C0 N 0 N – No rating provided

Quality Rating SSA Vacancy Units Rate 7 0.0% 268 3.8% 0 192 3.7% 388 31.2% 276 14.9% 332 4.2% 86 8.1% 1,418 3.3%

Springfield Vacancy Units Rate 102 0.0% 362 2.8% 12 0.0% 192 3.7% 782 16.6% 285 14.4% 332 4.2% 86 8.1% 1,418 3.3%

The Springfield non-subsidized rental properties has a diverse mix of rental product by quality rating. While a majority of the rental product in the PSA has a rating of B-, this product has a very low vacancy rate of 2.3%. The SSA also has its highest share of product among projects rated at B-, yet this product has a high vacancy rate of 31.2%. Generally, vacancies in the market are higher among the lower rated properties, while higher rated product has the lower vacancy rates. As such, the market has and is expected to continue to respond well to higher quality product.

VI-14

The amenities offered at a project are often influenced by such things as target market (i.e. families, seniors, students, young professionals, etc.) and the household income segment the project seeks to serve. The distribution of unit amenities for all non-subsidized projects surveyed in the study areas is as follows: Distribution of Unit Amenities PSA SSA Unit Amenities Units % Units % Stove Range 604 100.0% 2,997 100.0% Refrigerator 604 100.0% 2,997 100.0% Dishwasher 398 65.9% 2,421 80.1% Disposal 307 50.8% 1,931 64.4% Microwave 296 49.0% 1,158 38.6% AC-Central 413 68.4% 2,740 91.4% AC-Window 191 31.6% 257 8.6% Floor Covering 604 100.0% 2,997 100.0% Window Treatments 504 83.4% 2,683 89.5% Washer/Dryer 115 19.0% 500 16.7% Washer/Dryer Hookups 206 34.1% 2,060 68.7% Patio/Balcony 192 31.8% 1,606 53.6% Ceiling Fans 498 82.5% 1,802 60.1%

Springfield Units % 3,601 100.0% 3,601 100.0% 2,819 78.3% 2,238 62.1% 1,454 40.4% 3,153 87.6% 448 12.4% 3,601 100.0% 3,187 88.5% 615 17.1% 2,266 62.9% 1,798 49.9% 2,300 63.9%

The most common amenities, those offered in more than half of the units in the overall Springfield area, included a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, garbage disposal, central air conditioning, carpeting, window treatments (blinds or drapes), washer/dryer hookups, and ceiling fans. The PSA (downtown Springfield) rental housing stock offers many of the same unit amenities; however, in most cases the share of units that offer certain amenities is lower in downtown Springfield than in the overall Springfield area. The most notable difference between downtown Springfield’s units and the overall, the Springfield area has a lower frequency of units in the downtown area offering washer and dryer hookups. The share (49.0%) of the downtown units offering microwave ovens is higher than the share (40.4%) of units in overall Springfield with microwave ovens.

VI-15

The project amenities, or common area amenities, were identified for each project. The following table summarizes the distribution of units within projects with selected project amenities for each study area. Distribution of Project Amenities PSA SSA Project Amenities Units % Units % Pool 94 15.6% 1,799 60.0% On-Site Management 583 96.5% 1,702 56.8% Laundry 489 81.0% 2,036 67.9% Club House 192 31.8% 794 26.6% Meeting Room 95 15.7% 37 1.2% Fitness Center 287 47.5% 468 15.6% Jacuzzi/Sauna 0 0.0% 322 10.7% Playground 0 0.0% 1,653 55.2% Sports Court 0 0.0% 878 29.3% Storage 0 0.0% 220 7.3% Elevator 489 81.0% 197 6.6% Picnic Area 203 33.6% 1,437 47.9%

Springfield Units % 1,893 52.6% 2,285 63.5% 2,525 70.1% 986 27.4% 132 3.7% 755 21.0% 322 8.9% 1,653 45.9% 878 24.4% 220 6.1% 686 19.1% 1,640 45.5%

Project amenities most common (more than half of units) in the overall Springfield area include swimming pools, on-site management, and laundry facilities. As such, project amenity packages are generally limited. This is likely partially attributed to the fact that much of the market is older and the small amount of high-end product that would typically include comprehensive amenity packages. The PSA’s (downtown Springfield) rental housing stock has even more limited project amenity packages with the most common features including on-site management, laundry facilities, and elevators. The PSA’s share of project amenities is primarily influenced by its age, quality and urban setting.

VI-16

Government-Subsidized Housing There are a total of 14 projects within the City of Springfield that offer at least some units that operate with a government-subsidy. Government subsidized housing typically requires residents to pay 30% of their adjusted gross income towards rents and qualifies households with incomes of up to 50% of AMHI. The 14 projects with a subsidy include 1,639 units, of which most (936 units, 57.1%) are located outside the downtown but within the Springfield city limits. All 1,639 government-subsidized units are occupied and most projects maintain a wait list. According to a representative with the Springfield Housing Authority, there are approximately 2,005 Housing Choice Voucher holders within the housing authority’s jurisdiction and 3,100 people on the waiting list for additional Vouchers. This reflects the continuing need for Housing Choice Voucher assistance. The waiting list is closed and currently, there are no plans to reopen it. Annual turnover of persons in the Voucher program is estimated at 360 households. The government-subsidized units (both with and without Tax Credits) in the City of Springfield are summarized as follows. Bedroom Baths One-Bedroom 1.0 Two-Bedroom 1.0 Three-Bedroom 1.5 Total Subsidized Tax Credit Bedroom Baths One-Bedroom 1.0 Two-Bedroom 1.0 Three-Bedroom 1.5 Four-Bedroom 2.0 Four-Bedroom 2.0 Total Subsidized

Subsidized Tax Credit Units Distribution 34 47.9% 4 5.6% 33 46.5% 71 100.0% Government-Subsidized Units Distribution 1,016 64.8% 245 15.6% 212 13.5% 65 4.1% 30 1.9% 1,568 100.0%

Vacancy 0 0 0 0

% Vacant 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Vacancy 0 0 0 0 0 0

% Vacant 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The overall occupancy rate of all government-subsidized units in the market is 100.0%, which is very high. This occupancy rate combined with the fact that most of the government-subsidized projects maintain long wait lists are indications of the very strong demand for subsidized housing. Based on our survey of government-subsidized rental alternatives in Springfield, just over one-half of the product was built between 1980 and 1989, and approximately 40% of the units are considered to be of lower quality (ratings of Bor lower). As such, while some modern and good quality government-subsidized housing has been added to the market over the past 13 years, the Springfield government-subsidized housing stock has a high share of older, lower quality product that will either need substantially renovated/modernized or replaced in the years ahead.

VI-17

Maps illustrating the location of the multifamily apartments surveyed within Springfield are included on the following pages.

VI-18

Springfield, IL Apartment Locations

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Apartments Type

Govt-sub Mkt rate/Govt-sub Mkt rate Mkt rate/Tax Credit 912

Tax Credit Tax Credit/Govt-sub Mkt-rate/Tax Credit/Govt-sub

931 924

925 919

933

930 928

923 926

8 935906 901 7 5 4 932903 915 6 10 9 3 2 916 1 917 909

902

910

934 905 920 913914 907

908

918

929

911

922 927

904

921

1:166,295

0

0.5

1

2

3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Springfield, IL Apartment Locations (Primary Study Area)

Primary Study Area

Apartments Type

Govt-sub Mkt rate/Govt-sub Mkt rate Mkt rate/Tax Credit

8

9 4

5

7 6

10 2

3

1

1:14,114

0

0.05 0.1

0.2

0.3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

3. For-Sale Housing Supply Historical For-Sale Analysis Bowen National Research, through a review of the Multiple Listing Service (provided by Capital Area Association of REALTORS) for the PSA and SSA, identified both historical for-sale residential data and currently available for-sale housing stock. It should be noted that for the purposes of this analysis, we have not distinguished between PSA (downtown) and SSA markets, primarily due to the fact that virtually all for-sale activity has occurred outside the PSA (downtown Springfield). The historical data includes any home sales that occurred within the study areas from January 4, 2010 to September 19, 2013. It is our opinion that an evaluation of sales activity after 2009 is representative of true market conditions of a more stabilized market following the national recession. The following tables include a sampling of more than 5,000 for-sale residential transactions that occurred within the City of Springfield by year constructed. Sales History by Year Built – (January 4, 2010 to September 19, 2013) Number Average Average Median Year Built Sold Bedrooms/Baths Square Feet Price Range Sales Price 1939 or earlier 679 3/1.5 1,545 $2,500 - $575,000 $58,000 1940 to 1950 309 3/1.5 1,394 $5,000 - $628,000 $69,900 1951 to 1960 613 3/1.5 1,399 $2,500 - $569,000 $70,200 1961 to 1970 663 3/1.75 1,718 $4,911 - $615,000 $108,000 1971 to 1980 671 3/2.0 1,842 $10,200 - $720,000 $116,000 1981 to 1990 440 3/2.25 2,035 $25,000 - $595,000 $137,250 1991 to 2000 875 3/2.5 2,424 $10,150 - $1,283,600 $166,000 2001 to present 888 3/2.75 2,697 $6,900 - $965,000 $220,000 Total 5,138 3/2.0 1,970 $2,500 - $1,283,600 $122,000 Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

Average Days on Market 90 71 81 77 79 83 72 90 81

The distribution of housing units sold since early 2010 by year constructed indicate that the market is relatively well-balanced by the age of the housing stock. The subject market has a variety of product by development periods, with the median home prices increasing as development periods are more recent. Median home prices for product built prior to 1960 is $70,200 or lower, while product built between 1961 and 2000 has median home prices ranging from $108,000 to $166,000, depending upon development period. The market’s newest product built since 2000 has a median home price of $220,000. As such, it is clear that new product, despite the amount that has been on the market and sold since early 2010, can achieve a significant premium over older product. The average days on market for recently sold product is 81 days, with no development period exceeding 90 days on market. These are relatively short days on market, which is a positive indication of the good level of demand for for-sale product.

VI-21

Sales History by Year Built 20.0% 18.0%

17.0%

17.3%

1991 - 2000

2001 to present

16.0%

Share

14.0%

13.2%

12.9%

11.9%

13.1%

12.0% 10.0%

8.6%

8.0%

6.0%

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1939 or earlier

1940 - 1950

1951 - 1960

1961 - 1970

1971 - 1980

1981 - 1990

Year Built

The distribution of home sales by bedroom type for Springfield is summarized in the following table: Sales History by Bedrooms – (January 4, 2010 to September 19, 2013) Numbe Average Average Median Price r Average Square Year Median Per Bedrooms Sold Baths Feet Built Price Range Sale Price Square Feet One-Br. 67 1.0 813 1943 $2,500 - $177,500 $25,750 $31.67 Two-Br. 1,202 1.5 1,218 1963 $2,500 - $396,300 $72,900 $59.85 Three-Br. 2,618 2.0 1,828 1973 $2,500 - $650,000 $122,000 $66.74 Four-Br. 1,019 2.75 2,865 1979 $5,500 - $1,275,000 $195,000 $68.06 Five-Br.+ 232 3.5 3,878 1981 $9,500 - $1,283,600 $283,125 $73.01 Total 5,138 1,970 1972 $2,500 - $1,283,600 $122,000 $61.93 Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

As the preceding table illustrates, more than half of the units sold contained threebedrooms. As expected, the more bedrooms a unit contains the higher the median home price has been. This also has some correlation to the larger average square footage, additional bathrooms, and more modern year most of the larger homes were constructed. Two- and three-bedroom units appear to be the highest unit types in demand, with more of these units sold than any other type and the shortest average days on market. While five-bedroom units have the longest average days on market (123), these larger homes have the highest median home price at $283,125. As a result, the more limited number of higher income households that can afford these higher priced and larger units results in a slower absorption of these particular units.

VI-22

Average Days on Market 91 79 76 86 123 81

The distribution of homes sold since January 2010 by price for Springfield is summarized in the table below. Summary of Home Sales by Price (January 4, 2010 to September 19, 2013) Number Percent Sale Price of Homes of Supply Up to $99,999 2,033 39.6% $100,000 to $124,999 628 12.2% $125,000 to $149,999 685 13.3% $150,000 to $174,999 447 8.8% $175,000 to $199,999 309 6.0% $200,000 to $224,999 216 4.2% $225,000 to $249,999 189 3.7% $250,000 to $274,999 145 2.8% $275,000 to $299,999 111 2.2% $300,000 to $349,999 151 2.9% $350,000 to $399,999 79 1.5% $400,000+ 145 2.8% Total 5,138 100.0% Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

Average Days on Market 87 66 63 62 80 87 71 90 96 114 133 130 81

As the preceding table illustrates, 39.6% of the homes sold in Springfield since January 2010 were priced below $100,000. As such, it is clear that the market has a large number of lower priced homes that were likely affordable to lower income households. It should be noted, however, that with a median year built of 1973 for the overall supply sold since January of 2010, much of this lower priced product is likely old and of lower quality. As such, these units, while affordable, may require additional costs for repairs or maintenance that may be cost prohibitive for lower income households. The balance of the units sold by price point is well apportioned in the market, indicating buyers have had a good selection of homes from which to choose. The graph below illustrates homes sales by price point. Home Sales by Price 2,500

2,033

Number of Sales

2,000

1,500

1,000

628

685 447

500

309

216

189

145

111

151

79

145

0 <$99,999

$100,000- $125,000$124,999 $149,999

$150,000$174,999

$175,000- $200,000- $225,000- $250,000$199,999 $224,999 $249,999 $274,999

Price Range

VI-23

$275,000- $300,000- $350,000- $400,000+ $299,999 $349,999 $399,999

Because one of the primary objectives of this report is to evaluate the market potential for new for-sale housing, we also evaluated recent for-sale housing activity for newer homes built in 2010 or later. The following table illustrates the distribution of modern for-sale housing units by bedroom type for Springfield. New Home Sales by Bedrooms – Year Built (2010 and later) Numbe Median Price r Average Average Median Per Bedrooms Sold Baths Square Feet Price Range Sale Price Square Feet Two-Br. 27 2.0 1,459 $6,900 - $273,000 $152,900 $104.80 Three-Br. 81 2.25 2,080 $14,000 - $445,000 $209,500 $100.72 Four-Br. 43 3.25 3,559 $178,000 - $772,500 $336,500 $94.55 Five-Br. 22 3.75 4,469 $240,000 - $925,000 $450,000 $100.69 Total 173 2,654 $6,900 - $925,000 $260,000 $97.97 Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

Average Days on Market 121 127 121 164 129

Like the overall historical sales activity shown earlier in this section, the largest share (46.8%) of newer built homes comprise three-bedroom units. However, several characteristics of newer residential unit sales versus the overall market unit sales differ significantly. The following are key points comparing characteristics of newer residential sales with overall historical sales within Springfield:     

Newer residential units have a median sale price of $260,000 compared with $122,000 for the overall market. This represents a premium of $138,000, or 113.1%. The average square foot for newer residential units is 2,654 compared with 1,970 square feet for the overall market. This represents a difference of 684 square feet or 34.7%. The median price per square foot for newer residential units is $97.97 compare with $61.93 for the overall market. This represents a premium of $36.04, or 58.2%. The average days on market for newer residential units is 129 days versus 81 days for overall market residential sales. The average number of baths for newer product includes at least an additional half bath for each bedroom type compared with the overall market.

Overall, newer product is generally priced more than double the overall market, with units about one-third larger (square feet), achieving prices per square foot nearly 60% higher and having at least one-half bath more than overall market product. While the average days on market for new product takes 48 days longer to sale than the overall market, this is not unusual given the higher prices and smaller base of income-appropriate households that could afford such product. A map illustrating the location of all homes sold between January 4, 2010 and September 19, 2013 within Springfield is included on the following page.

VI-24

Springfield, IL Home Sale Locations by Sale Price

1:190,000

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Recent Home Sales Sale Price Less Than $100,000 $100,000 - $199,999 $200,000 or Higher

0

0.75

1.5

3

4.5 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Available For-Sale Housing Supply Through Multiple Listing Services, we identified 885 housing units within Springfield that were listed as “for sale” housing as of February 2013. Virtually all of the product we surveyed included single-family home listings, a limited number of duplexes, manufactured homes, and other non-conventional product were identified. While there are likely some other for-sale residential units available for purchase, such homes were not identified during our research due to the method of advertisement or simply because the product was not actively marketed. The available for-sale data we collected and analyzed includes the following:   

Distribution of Housing by Bedrooms Distribution of Housing by Price Point Distribution of Housing of New Product

Beyond our analysis of the characteristics and trends of the for-sale housing market, we also considered the available housing units by price point in our demand estimates for housing units by household income levels in Section VIII of this report. The available for-sale housing by bedroom type in Springfield is summarized in the following table. It should be noted, while 885 units were identified, the following table only includes the 626 units that included all required data sets. A distribution of all 885 units is included later in this section: Summary of Active For-Sale Housing Supply by Bedrooms (As of September 19, 2013) Number Average Average Median of Homes Average Square Year Price Median Price Bedrooms Listed Baths Feet Built Range List Price Square Feet One-Br. 3 1.0 744 1954 $30,000 - $55,000 $33,685 $45.28 Two-Br. 155 1.25 1,212 1955 $15,000 - $575,000 $69,900 $57.67 Three-Br. 295 1.75 1,696 1969 $4,320 - $425,000 $111,900 $65.98 Four-Br. 130 2.75 3,037 1974 $24,000 - $1,300,000 $224,900 $74.05 Five-Br.+ 43 4.0 4,789 1983 $29,000 - $1,246,765 $469,900 $98.12 Total 626 2,062 1968 $4,320 - $1,300,000 $109,900 $53.30 Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

Average Days on Market 67 114 107 111 143 112

The available supply has an average year built of 1968, which is comparable to the overall historical residential unit sales year of 1972. Overall, the average unit size of available product is 2,062 square feet. A majority of the available product consists of 1.75 bathrooms or larger. The average days on market is 112, with all but the five-bedroom units having an average days on market of 114 or lower. Nearly onehalf of the identified for-sale residential units included in the preceding table consist of three-bedroom units, with two- and four-bedroom units representing the next largest and nearly equal shares of units. While the range of price points for available supply is wide, ranging from $4,320 to $1,300,000, the median list price is $109,900. This is slightly lower than the median sales price ($122,000) of historical sales activity since January 2010. This indicates that the currently available supply

VI-26

is slightly older and priced lower than the overall market’s historical sales activity from the past three years. This may also be an indication that the market has a diminished supply of newly built available product. According to local sources, the difference between asking or list price and the actual sales price is about 4%. The table below summarizes the distribution of available for-sale residential units by price point for Springfield. This includes the 269 units that were excluded from the preceding table due to the lack of certain information required in the preceding table. Summary of Active For-Sale Housing Supply by Price (As of September 19, 2013) Number of Percent of Average Days List Price Homes Supply on Market Up to $99,999 469 53.0% 124 $100,000 to $124,999 90 10.2% 93 $125,000 to $149,999 74 8.4% 78 $150,000 to $174,999 34 3.8% 98 $175,000 to $199,999 35 3.9% 135 $200,000 to $224,999 17 1.9% 99 $225,000 to $249,999 15 1.7% 69 $250,000 to $274,999 18 2.0% 115 $275,000 to $299,999 21 2.4% 97 $300,000 to $349,999 28 3.2% 102 $350,000 to $399,999 15 1.7% 185 $400,000+ 69 7.8% 159 Total 885 100.0% 117 Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

Slightly more than half (53.0%) of the units available for sale are priced below $100,000. While there are 469 homes priced below $100,000, given the average year built of all available homes is 1968, it is likely that much of this lower priced product is older and of lower quality. Such homes are likely in need of repairs and modernization to some degree. Nearly one-fifth of the available supply is priced between $100,000 and $150,000, and 7.8% is priced between $150,000 and $200,000. As the preceding table illustrates, there are less than 20 units priced among any of the pricing segments between $200,000 and $400,000. As such, there would appear to be more limited product offerings among these higher priced units. This may represent a development opportunity in Springfield. However, there are 69 identified residential units priced above $400,000, indicating a relatively large base of high-end priced units.

VI-27

Active For-Sale Housing by Price 500

469

450

Number of Sales

400 350 300 250 200 150

90

100

74

50

69 34

35

$150,000$174,999

$175,000$199,999

17

15

18

21

28

$200,000$224,999

$225,000$249,999

$250,000$274,999

$275,000$299,999

$300,000$349,999

15

0 <$99,999

$100,000$124,999

$125,000$149,999

$350,000- $400,000+ $399,999

Price Range

Because much of the housing stock addressed in the preceding tables are older, it is important to also evaluate the most modern available for-sale housing product in the Springfield market. The following table illustrates residential units currently available for sale in Springfield that were built in 2010 or later. Active For-Sale Housing Supply – Year Built (2010 and later) Numbe r Average Average Median Median Price Bedrooms Listed Baths Square Feet Price Range List Price Per sq. ft. Two-Br. 2 2.0 1,600 $64,900 - $289,900 $177,400 $110.88 Three-Br. 14 2.0 1,994 $120,000 - $425,000 $286,434 $143.65 Four-Br. 6 3.25 3,707 $275,000 - $749,000 $396,200 $106.88 Five-Br. 3 4.25 4,446 $349,900 - $789,000 $379,000 $85.25 Total 25 2,668 $64,900 - $789,000 $301,556 $113.03 Source: Capital Area Association of REALTORS

Average Days on Market 146 52 311 85 126

There are only 25 identified residential units in Springfield that were built in 2010 or later. The average square footage of the newest for-sale residential units is 2,668, with a median list price of $301,556 and a median price per square foot of $113.03. These unit sizes (square feet), price points and price per square foot are significantly greater than the overall available market supply. Regardless, the average days on market of 126 is comparable to overall market averages, indicating that modern product has been well received. A map illustrating the location of available for-sale homes in Springfield is included on the following page.

VI-28

Springfield, IL Active For Sale Home Locations

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area List_Price Less Than $100,000 $100,000 - $199,999 $200,000 or Higher

N 1:190,000

0

0.75

1.5

3

4.5 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Special Populations - Housing Alternatives Springfield, like larger communities throughout the country, has a diverse population that has a variety of housing needs specific to certain populations. Some of these special needs populations include the homeless and college students. This portion of the Housing Needs Assessment provides an overview of some of the special needs populations in Springfield and housing alternatives available to meet specific needs. Homeless Population Springfield is located within HUD’s designated Continuum of Care (CoC) area known as the Springfield/Sangamon County CoC. CoCs around the United States are required to collect data for a point-in-time during the last week of each year. The Springfield/ Sangamon County CoC’s last published point-in-time survey was conducted in late January 2012. This includes count of persons who are classified as homeless, as well as an inventory of the housing specifically designated for the homeless population. According to the 2012 point-in-time survey for the Springfield/Sangamon County CoC, there are approximately 251 persons who are classified as homeless on any given day that are not already housed in permanent supportive housing in the Springfield/Sangamon County CoC jurisdiction. The following table summarizes the sheltered and unsheltered homeless population within the Springfield/Sangamon County CoC. Homeless Population – Springfield/Sangamon CoC Emergency Transitional Population Category Shelter Housing Unsheltered Persons in Households without Children 114 37 9 Persons in Households with 1 Adult & 1 Child 0 91 0 Persons in Household with only 1 Child 0 0 0 Total 114 128 9

Total Population 160 91 0 251

Source: Springfield/Sangamon County COC Point-in-Time Survey (1/25/12)

Based on an evaluation of subpopulations reported in the Springfield/Sangamon County CoC’s point-in-time survey, victims of domestic violence (13 people), severely mentally ill (20 people), chronically homeless (96 people) and veterans (18 people) comprise some of the larger segments of the homeless population. Housing that provides supportive services to these subpopulations is critical to meeting the needs of the homeless population. As of late January 2012, there are 243 year-round beds within the Springfield/Sangamon County CoC provided to individuals in emergency shelter housing and transitional housing. This special needs housing meets the needs of approximately 96.8% of the homeless population in the area based upon the total number of year-round beds, though some households remain homeless.

VI-30

Special Care Seniors Among seniors age 75+, some individuals are either seeking a more leisurely lifestyle or need assistance with Activities of Daily Living (ADLs). Four levels of care typically respond to older adults seeking, or who need, alternatives to their current living environment. They include, in order of increasing care requirements, independent living, congregate care, assisted living (including memory care), and nursing care. Within the Springfield area there are nine senior residential facilities, including one independent living facility, one congregate care facility, five assisted living facilities, and five nursing homes (some projects offer more than one housing type). While there are some short-term rehabilitation facilities and specialized care facilities, such housing for the blind, these projects are not restricted to seniors and therefore have been excluded from this analysis. We referenced the Illinois’ Department of Health’s website for all licensed assisted living facilities and cross referenced this list with other senior care facility resources. We believe the identified senior care facilities represent all licensed facilities in Springfield. The nine surveyed facilities are summarized as follows: Facility Type Independent Congregate Care Assisted Living Nursing Care

Facilities Surveyed 1 1 5 5

Total Units/Beds 33 94 255 611

Occupancy Rates 97.0% 97.9% 97.6% 87.4%

North Central U.S. Occupancy Rate* 88.4% 88.4% 91.7% 87.6%

National Occupancy Rate* 87.9% 87.9% 90.9% 89.0%

*Source: American Seniors Housing Assn. The State of Seniors Housing 2011. North Central U.S. includes Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota.

The Springfield senior care market is reporting occupancy rates between 87.4% for nursing care facilities and 97.4% for congregate care facilities. The American Seniors Housing Association (ASHA) conducts an annual survey of retirement and senior residential care communities. While the occupancy rate at the nursing care surveyed by Bowen National Research within Springfield are comparable to those reported within the region and the nation by (ASHA), the assisted living occupancy rate in Springfield of 97.4%, which is much higher than the ASHA averages. Base monthly fees for the assisted living units range from $3,286 to $3,786, while base daily rates for nursing care units range from $150 to $265. All fees are based on different levels of care and room type (private versus semi-private). The low occupancy rates of the nursing care facilities indicate that the market would have difficulty supporting additional nursing care units at this time. The relatively high occupancy rate among the assisted living facilities indicate limited availability among this product type and likely represents a development opportunity for this product time. At a base monthly fee of $3,750, there is potential demand for 90 new assisted living beds in the subject market. This assumes a well-designed and marketable project is developed.

VI-31

Student Housing There are several institutions of higher learning that serve the Springfield area. These include both two- and four-year colleges, medical schools (nursing and medicine), and a technical school. The schools of higher learning in Springfield are summarized as follows: Map I.D. 1

School University of Illinois at Springfield

2

Lincoln Land Community College

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Midwest Technical Institute Benedictine University at Springfield Capital Area School for Practical Nursing Southern Illinois University School of Medicine St. John’s College ITT Technical Institute Robert Morris University

Total Enrollment

Student Housing Capacity

4-Year, Public

5,048

1,113

2-Year, Public Vocational, Private

7,193

0

618

0

4-Year, Private

905

108*

9-Month Nursing

129

0

Medical School 2-Year Nursing 4-Year Technical 4-Year Private

72 112 148 525**

0 0 0 0

Type

Notes Enrollment is stable; Offers notable internship and international student programs Enrollment trending down each of past four years; Internships are required for selected programs 2011 enrollment the lowest of past four years (2012 not available) Enrollment has fluctuated each of past four years; Enrollment decline three years in a row (2012 data not available) Enrollment trends not available; No school provided housing Nursing School; No housing offered Opened in Springfield in mid-2013 Enrollment trends not available

*Benedictine has capacity for at least 108 students, but likely houses more as some individual housing facilities capacity was not available. **Based on 2009 data

Based on the latest enrollment data available, these schools have a combined enrollment of approximately 14,750 students. Of the six schools, only two offer housing for their students, with a combined capacity for approximately 1,221 students. As such, approximately 13,529 students must find housing in the private market. The following is a brief summary of school-provided student housing. 

The University of Illinois at Springfield offers housing for approximately 1,113 students in apartments and dormitories. Per student fees range from $1,800 (shared) to $4,950 (private) per semester, with most options priced around $2,600 to $2,800. According to University sources, UIS housing is operating at an occupancy rate of around 93.7%.



Benedictine University at Springfield offers student housing that has capacity for at least 108 students. However, there are some school-provided housing for which the capacity was not available. As a result, the actual capacity exceeds 108 students. University housing includes traditional dormitory rooms and apartment units. Typical fees range from $3,550 to $4,250 on a per-person per semester basis. University representatives indicate that the school’s housing stock typically operates at around a 96.0% occupancy rate.

A map illustrating the location of the schools of higher education is on the following page.

VI-32

Springfield, IL Universities

University Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Midwest Technical Institute

Benedictine University at Springfield

Southern Illinois School of Medicine

St. John's College

ITT Technical Institute Robert Morris University

University of Illinois at Springfield

Capital Area School of Practical Nursing

1:165,792

Lincoln Land Community College

0

0.5

1

2

3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

There are approximately 385 students at area schools in each academic term serving as interns, with approximately 200 in UIS’s undergraduate Applied Study Term (AST) programs, and 185 graduates in either the Graduate Public Service Internship (GPSI) program or the Illinois Legislative Studies Internship (ILSIP) programs offered by UIS. Besides Public Administration-related programs, interns also participate in Computer Sciences and Accounting programs primarily in and around the downtown area. As a result, many local sources we interviewed believe there is some opportunity to develop housing for college interns. Additionally, with the presence of medical facilities in the northern portion of downtown, there is likely some housing need for medical school interns and nursing students. As a result, we have provided demand estimates for overall student housing, then supplemental demand estimates for subgroups such as graduate students serving internships and medical students. Demand estimates for new student-oriented housing in Springfield will most likely originate from full-time students living off campus, as part-time students and those living on-campus will be less likely to choose to live in off-campus student apartments. As a result, we have estimated the potential demand for off-campus student housing for the entire student population by combining the total enrollment for each school and deducting part-time students and the on-campus student housing capacity. Because specific data relating to full-time versus part-time enrollment for these schools was not available, we have applied national averages to the existing schools to estimate the number of full-time students. Typically, a single off-campus student housing project can capture between 2% and 20% of a potential market. A conservative 2.0% capture rate is considered reasonable in markets with a large variety of housing options, an isolated site or one with limited appeal (i.e. far from campus), market vacancy issues, declining student enrollment, or other limiting factors. Conversely, markets with minimal competition or housing alternatives, high student enrollment growth, high student housing occupancies, and an ideal site location can capture a larger share of the potential market, anywhere from to 10% to 20%. Based on the current market conditions (both on- and off-campus housing), enrollment trends, and the various schools’ proximity to the downtown area, we believe a conservative capture rate of at least 2% is achievable. The following table illustrates the potential number of beds of new student housing (not limited to graduate students or interns) within the Primary Study Area (PSA): Demand Component Total Enrollment Less Part-Time Enrollment Less On-Campus Housing Supply Equals Full-Time Off-Campus Students Multiplied by Capture Rate Equals Overall Off-Campus Student Housing Potential

VI-34

Data 14,750 - 5,602 - 1,221 = 7,927 x 2% = 159 (Beds)

As the preceding table illustrates, there is a potential to support 159 beds of new student housing (for undergraduates, graduates, medical students, etc.) in the Primary Study Area (PSA), or downtown Springfield. The actual number of beds that can ultimately be supported will be contingent upon a variety of factors, including the site location, rent levels, unit/bedroom types, amenities, target market (i.e. graduate students, international students, interns, etc.) and design characteristics. Regardless, the estimates provided in the table above provide a general baseline from which a potential student housing project for downtown Springfield can be determined. Part of the focus of this report was to evaluate the housing market potential for graduate students in internship programs through local universities. Internship programs are offered or required by area institutions of higher education in the Springfield area. UIS representatives indicated that they have nearly 400 students that participate in internship programs, with 185 graduate students working in internships at 21 different agencies. As a result, many of the students have their internships at the various government offices located downtown. While many interns likely will have their housing needs met by the existing housing market, we believe there may be some potential for additional housing for interns. According to a survey conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield (UIS) in 2012, there appears to be an interest of UIS graduate students to live in downtown Springfield that would enable graduate students in the school’s internship program to be closer to their internship/workplace location. According to the survey 45.8% of respondents indicated that they would be interested in renting housing owned by the University. While not all students “interested” in downtown University housing would actually move, applying this “best case” ratio of 45.8% to the 185 graduate students in internship programs yields potential support for up to 85 beds of graduate student housing. Applying a more conservative share of 20%, the market could support approximately 37 graduate student housing beds. Applying the 20% share to the approximately 200 undergraduates in internship programs yields additional support for 40 undergraduate beds. Because of the presence of medical facilities in the downtown area, and there are medical students from the Southern Illinois University of Medicine, St. John’s College (nursing), and Capitol Area School for Practical Nursing there is potential for developing new housing to meet the specific needs of medical-related students. Based on data provided by the medical schools, there are approximately 313 students within their respective programs at any given time. While some medical students will have their housing needs met by the existing housing stock, we believe that a higher than normal share of the market can be captured due to the unique housing needs of medical students and the lack of rental housing in the medical district area that caters specifically to medical students, a single new student housing project in downtown could capture approximately 10% to 15%. This would require direct assistance from the medical education institutions to direct or refer students to such housing. Applying this 10% to 15% capture rate to the 313 base of potential support yields support for approximately 30 to 46 beds specifically designed and designated for medical/nursing students. Ultimately, the location, rents, amenities and other design characteristics will affect the actual number of beds that can be supported.

VI-35

Planned & Proposed Residential Development In order to access housing development potential, we evaluated recent residential building permit activity and identified residential projects in the development pipeline for Springfield. Understanding the number of residential units and the type of housing being considered for development in Springfield can assist in determining how these projects are expected to meet the housing needs of the City, including the downtown area. The following table illustrates single-family and multifamily building permits issued within the city of Springfield and Sangamon County for the past ten years. It should be noted that building permit data specific to the downtown area is not available. However, based on our observations and interviews with local development officials, it is likely that most of the Springfield residential building permit activity pertains to areas outside the downtown area and inside the SSA. Permits Multifamily Permits Single-Family Permits Total Units

2003 302 341 643

Housing Unit Building Permits for Springfield, IL: 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 212 204 179 110 302 366 279 219 179 97 578 483 398 289 399

2009 64 112 176

2010 99 106 205

2011 104 103 207

2012 52 93 145

Housing Unit Building Permits for Sangamon County: 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 284 271 219 149 321 79 647 664 596 412 259 289 931 935 815 561 580 368

2010 113 277 390

2011 122 247 369

2012 65 236 301

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html

Permits Multifamily Permits Single-Family Permits Total Units

2003 361 630 991

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html

Within the City of Springfield, overall residential building permit activity steadily declined from 643 units in 2003 to 289 in 2007, then spiked to 399 units in 2008 before declining by more than 50% in 2009 as the effects of the national recession took effect. While residential permit activity increased in 2010 and 2011 to just over 200 units, it declined in 2012 to 145 units. The downward permit activity between 2003 and 2007 was likely attributed, for the most part, to cutbacks in governmentrelated employment. Generally, single-family residential permit activity has outpaced multifamily permit activity, though some years the totals were nearly equal. The overall building permit activity is likely to continue to remain in the 150 to 250 range for the foreseeable future, unless economic trends shift dramatically and/or new incentives to encourage housing development in Springfield are developed. As the preceding tables also illustrate, approximately half of all building permit activity in Sangamon County was located within the Springfield City limits.

VI-36

According to local planning officials, there is only two notable residential projects being considered for development within the downtown area. These projects are summarized as follows: 

A potential multifamily project, located in the Booth Building at 518 East Monroe, will consist of 21 rental apartment units that will likely primarily include studio and one-bedroom units, with first floor retail. According to local officials, the developer may seek Federal Tax Credits. The project is on hold until the expansion of the historic district.



A private developer is considering the development of a 69-bed off-campus student housing project near the intersection of 2nd Street and Washington Street in the downtown area. The project would likely include mostly studio and onebedroom units, as well as classroom space and possibly some retail. This project is still in the preliminary stages and the actual development of the project remains uncertain.

Residential Foreclosures The foreclosure of residential structures became prominent in markets throughout the United States during the national recession starting in 2008. Springfield was not immune to the rapid increase in foreclosures that resulted from loss of jobs, declining household incomes, predatory lending practices, and other factors that prohibited homeowners from paying their monthly mortgage. The following table summarizes monthly residential foreclosure activity over the past 12 months within Springfield. Residential Foreclosure Filings - Springfield Month Filings Monthly Change 2012-October 68 November 178 +110 December 58 -120 2013-January 85 +27 February 43 -42 March 69 -26 April 53 -16 May 44 -9 June 53 +9 July 49 -4 August 42 -7 September 35 -7 Total Foreclosures 777 Avg. Monthly 65 Source: RealtyTrac.com Note: The number of monthly filings are approximated

VI-37

Since September 2012, there have been 777 residential foreclosure filings in the City of Springfield, with an average of 65 foreclosures per month. During the past year, foreclosure filings peaked at 178 in November 2012. Since that time, the number of filings declined in eight of the past 10 months. Also, the number of filings has declined each of the past three months and the 35 filings in September of 2013 is a one-year low. Overall, residential foreclosure filings are declining within the City of Springfield, and it appears to be minimal at this stage. According to RealtyTrac.com, August 2013 data indicated that non-distressed homes sold for a median price of $130,000, while foreclosed properties had a median sales price of $76,500. This is a discounted rate of $53,500 or 41.1%. The overall foreclosure rates over the past 12 months for Springfield, Sangamon County, Illinois and the United States are compared in the following table and graph.

Data Annual Foreclosure Rate

Springfield .05%

Source: RealtyTrac.com

VI-38

Geographic Comparison Sangamon County Illinois .04% .19%

National .10%

Foreclosure Rate 0.20%

Percentage of Units

0.19% 0.15%

0.10% 0.10% 0.05% 0.05% 0.04% 0.00% Springfield

Sangamon County

Illinois

National

Location

As the preceding table illustrates, the .05% annual foreclosure rate for Springfield is comparable to Sangamon County but is only one-fourth of the Illinois average and half the national average. As such, Springfield’s foreclosure activity is well below much of the state and nation and does not appear to be prevalent.

VI-39

VII. OTHER HOUSING MARKET FACTORS A. INTRODUCTION Factors other than demography, employment, and supply (analyzed earlier in this study) can affect the strength or weakness of a given housing market. The following additional factors influence a housing market’s performance, and are discussed relative to Springfield’s PSA in this section:     

Governmental Initiatives Personal Mobility Crime Risk Public Education Community Attributes

B. GOVERNMENTAL INITIATIVES Municipalities vary greatly in their approach to, and interest in, housing. Some are concerned and proactive, offering different levels of assistance, while others are more passive, allowing the marketplace to dictate outcomes. Typically, cities that take a more rigorous role in their housing markets often have a greater chance of achieving improvements and directing growth. To be effective, local governments should have a clear understanding of their residential health and needs. This section examines how the City of Springfield influences its housing markets by evaluating the residential programs and incentives offered. Generally, cities provide assistance to two major housing groups, producers/ operators (developers/landlords) and end-users (resident households). The primary goals of governmental assistance usually are to: a) improve existing housing (rehabilitation), b) create new housing (redevelopment or new construction), c) render dwellings safer (eliminate dangerous conditions), and d) make housing more affordable (reduce prices, rents, and operating costs). Presently, the city of Springfield offers the following assistance to housing providers and users:

VII-1

Housing Providers

1. Tax Increment Financing (TIF) Districts: A Tax Increment Financing District (TIF) is a public financing method that is used for redevelopment, infrastructure, and community improvement projects. The City of Springfield has seven designated TIF Districts located throughout the city and only one of which is targeted towards downtown development. There are currently proposals of adding two additional TIF Districts. These TIF districts are summarized below (TIF District maps are included in Addendum B): Central Area (Downtown) TIF: The Central Area (Downtown) TIF was established in December 1981 and has been the most successful in attracting programs for property owners and businesses. This TIF district is set to expire on December 27, 2016. The city offers several loan and assistance programs for local and new businesses within the district such as: 









Building Rehab Loans can be used to encourage property restoration and repairs within the Central Area TIF. Loans can be amortized for 15 years with an interest rate of 0% to 5% but must be paid in full by December 1, 2016. In order to qualify the following conditions must be met: a.) gap financing or lack of available funds, b.) return on investment, c.) cost factors due to location. Downtown Façade Improvements can be used to apply for financial assistance to repair and restore visible building exteriors. Assistance given is generally $2,000 per running foot with a maximum of $40,000 per façade, or 75% of project cost whichever is less. All plans must comply with Historic Site Commission standards. Downtown Residential Assistance encourages the development of additional units in the downtown TIF area. Assistance can include a.) architectural consultation, b.) loan for up to $35,000 with a 3% fixed interest, c.) one time per unit rebate of six months or $3,000 which ever is greater. Architectural Assistance Program is designed to assist owners and developers to determine the feasibility of residential development of a project located in the Central TIF. A $2,000 maximum reimbursement is allowed for architectural expenses. Downtown Accessibility Elevator Assistance Program assists in making upper level floors accessible to persons with disabilities in the downtown TIF. Assistance is given to either install or replace an elevator that does not comply with ADA standards. A grant for up to $30,000 is available for associated construction and installation costs.

VII-2

Fiat Allis Complex (Park South) TIF: The Fiat Allis Complex (Park South) TIF was established in November 1989 and was used for the site prep, infrastructure and demolition of a former industrial complex. The site is zoned for commercial, office and retail development. There are still 49-lots available for future development. This TIF district expired on November 7, 2012. Springfield Far East TIF: The Springfield Far East TIF was established in February 1995 to encourage redevelopment of housing, retail, and commercial properties. This TIF district expires on February 22, 2018. Enos Park Neighborhood TIF: The Enos Park Neighborhood TIF was established in December 1997 for focused redevelopment of single-family residential properties and rehab assistance of some light commercial properties. This TIF will expire on December 51, 2020. Springfield Housing Authority (Madison Park Place) TIF: The Springfield Housing Authority (Madison Park Place) TIF was established in February 1999. This TIF was used for the demolition and redevelopment of John Hay Homes, a former public housing site, into a mixed income residential neighborhood using Low-income housing tax credits. This TIF district will expire on December 15, 2022. Northeast TIF: The Northeast TIF was established in December 2003 to provide infrastructure assistance to developers for commercial and retail development. This TIF district will expire on December 1, 2026. Jefferson Crossing TIF: The Jefferson Crossing TIF was established in September 2007 to also provide infrastructure assistance to developers for commercial and retail development. This TIF district will expire on September 7, 2030.

VII-3

Macarthur Boulevard Corridor TIF: The Macarthur Boulevard Corridor was established in late 2012 to provide infrastructure and building rehabilitation assistance to redevelop a blighted former retail complex. This TIF district is set to expire sometime in 2038. Dirksen Parkway Commercial TIF: The Dirksen Parkway Commercial TIF was approved in 2013 and will be used to develop infrastructure and rehab blighted and obsolete properties seeking commercial redevelopment. This TIF District is set to expire sometime in 2039.

2. Enterprise Zone Incentives: The new construction or renovation of properties located within Springfield’s Enterprise Zones may qualify for the following assistance: a) sales tax deductions on all building materials and b) property tax abatements. Projects that increase their property’s assessed value in improvements by $25,000 or more can also receive property tax abatements. Other incentives projects may qualify for include: a) state tax incentives, b) investment tax credits, and c) utility tax exemptions. Property tax abatement benefits differ between project type and sizes. These benefits are summarized below: Targeted Inducement: Projects that create more than 100 new jobs, result in $10 million of investment, and fall within targeted industry classifications, may be eligible to receive 100% property tax abatement on city property tax for five years. General Inducement: Multi-family and single-family commercial projects, may be eligible to receive property tax abatement on a sliding scale of 100% the first year, 75% the second year and 50% the third year on the city’s potion of the property tax. Treatment Area Inducement: Projects located within fourteen HUD census tracts as being identified with greater than 50% concentrations of low to moderate income levels, may be eligible for 100% property tax abatement for five years.

VII-4

Housing Users All city assistance for end-users is directed at owner-occupied housing. There are no city programs directly assisting renter households. This responsibility appears to have been delegated to the Springfield Housing Authority. City programs for housing end-users include: 1. Emergency Home Repair Program Grant for emergency repairs to owner-occupied homes that have major code violations pertaining to: a) HVAC, b) incoming water service line/sewer, c) roofing, and d) electrical. The maximum per property loan amount is $5,000 for qualified low-income households. This program is available through community development block grant funding. 2. Deferred Home Loan Program Loan program (deferred) to rehab owner-occupied homes that have major code violations and lead base paint hazards. The maximum per property loan amount is $24,900 for qualified low-income households. Loans defer to grant status after the homeowner has maintained property residency for five years after completed rehab. 3. Neighborhood Pride Homeownership Program: Property incentives for exterior renovation projects on owner-occupied homes are available to households within the City of Springfield and the boundaries of Ward 6. This program awards up to 25 grants of $500 each to qualified households (based on income and size limitations). Grants do not need to be repaid as all awards are given to home-owners in the form of a gift card. Eligible home improvements could include: a) repair stucco, b) landscaping improvements, c) repairs to siding, d) exterior trim and paint to name a few. 4. Clean Up/ Green Up Program Property incentives for exterior renovation projects on owner-occupied homes are available to households within the Enos Park Neighborhood. Eligible projects include: a) new roofs, b) new windows, c) landscaping, d) painting and restoration of original wood siding, and e) must complete renovations by December 2013. Property owners will be reimbursed for 50% of total project cost, up to $1,000.

VII-5

State of Illinois Homeownership Programs & Incentives: Illinois Hardest Hit Program Illinois Housing Development Authority (IHDA) provides mortgage assistance to households with a 20% reduction in income due to unemployment or underemployed. Participants must meet the following eligibility requirements in order to receive assistance: a) household income must be at 120% AMI, b) principal loan balance may not exceed $500,000, and c) liquid assets can not exceed $17,500. Property types can be singlefamily, condo, a permanently affixed manufactured home, or a four-unit building. Assistance allows households to remain in their homes while they work to regain employment or financial stability. Types of assistance include: a) Reinstatement Assistance- a one-time payment of all mortgage arrearages, fees and penalties. b) Monthly Mortgage Payment Assistance- 100% monthly mortgage payments up to 18 months while households make a 31% monthly payment to IHDA. Illinois Affordable Housing Trust Fund Program IHDA provides down payment and closing cost assistance to low or very low income households in the form of a grant or loan. Eligible households must be a first-time homebuyer, contribute $1,000 to the purchase and attend home-buyer counseling. Grant assistance is available to households at or below 50% Area Median Income (AMI) for a maximum grant amount of $5,000. For households earning between 51% and 80% AMI the maximum grant amount is $3,000. Grants are forgiven over a five-year recapture period. Loan assistance for households at 50% AMI are eligible for a maximum loan of $30,000. For households earning between 51% and 80% AMI the maximum loan amount is $20,000. *Note: Some areas within Springfield fall within designated census targeted areas; IHDA waives the first-time homebuyer requirement. Home Modification Program IHDA awards funds annually up to a maximum of $15,000 for interior and exterior home modifications for elderly and/or disabled owner-occupied housing. Eligible participants must have a documented need for accessibility modifications and household income may not exceed 50% of AMI Approximately ten projects are completed annually under this program. Assistance is provided as a five-year forgivable loan.

VII-6

In summary, the city of Springfield appears to be actively engaged in improving its housing markets by providing assistance and incentives to both housing providers and users. Based on currently offered housing programs, local priorities seem to favor owner-occupied dwellings typically suffering from disrepair. For housing providers, there is a balance of incentives for residential rehabilitation, redevelopment, and new construction projects. However, many of these programs are district or zone specific, rather than citywide. For housing users, almost all city assistance is targeted at low/moderate-income households residing in owner-occupied properties, with emphasis on exterior improvements. B. PERSONAL MOBILITY The ability of a person or household to travel easily, quickly, safely, and affordably throughout a city influences the desirability of a housing market. If traffic jams create long commuting times or public transit service is not available for carless people, their quality of life is diminished. Factors that lower resident satisfaction weaken housing markets. Typically, people travel frequently outside of their residences for three reasons: 1) to commute, 2) to run errands or 3) to recreate. Indicators of personal mobility include: 1) commuting patterns, 2) public transit availability, 3) walkability, and 4) parking ease. Commuting Patterns The following table shows two commuting pattern attributes (mode and time) for each study area:

Other Means

Worked at Home

Total

Illinois

Walked

Springfield

Public Transit

SSA

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Carpooled

PSA

Drove Alone

Commuting Mode

470 58.0% 44,115 82.2% 44,585 81.9% 4,366,869 73.6%

114 14.1% 5,277 9.8% 5,391 9.9% 540,099 9.1%

26 3.2% 1,198 2.2% 1,224 2.2% 515,963 8.7%

178 22.0% 994 1.9% 1,172 2.2% 181,617 3.1%

10 1.2% 731 1.4% 740 1.4% 93,276 1.6%

12 1.5% 1,334 2.5% 1,346 2.5% 232,406 3.9%

811 100.0% 53,648 100.0% 54,458 100.0% 5,930,230 100.0%

VII-7

60 or More Minutes

Worked at Home

Total

Illinois

45 to 59 Minutes

Springfield

30 to 44 Minutes

SSA

15 to 29 Minutes

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

PSA

Less Than 15 Minutes

Commuting Time

488 60.3% 23,231 43.3% 23,720 43.6% 1,482,740 25.0%

240 29.7% 23,328 43.5% 23,569 43.3% 1,789,181 30.2%

33 4.1% 3,125 5.8% 3,159 5.8% 1,222,702 20.6%

15 1.9% 968 1.8% 983 1.8% 564,462 9.5%

21 2.6% 1,661 3.1% 1,682 3.1% 638,739 10.8%

12 1.5% 1,334 2.5% 1,346 2.5% 232,406 3.9%

811 100.0% 53,648 100.0% 54,458 100.0% 5,930,230 100.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen

Noteworthy observations from the preceding tables follow: 

The Springfield Primary Study Area (downtown) is a much less cardependent area than the rest of the Springfield. PSA commuters relied on walking to work (22.0%) at a much higher share (1.9%) than the SSA or overall Springfield (2.2%). This is primarily attributed to the fact that many of the city’s largest employers are located within or near the downtown area.



The share (72.1%) of commuters in the PSA that either drive alone or carpool is much lower than the share (92.0%) of the same commuting modes in the SSA.



Nearly two-thirds of PSA commuters have travel times of less than 15 minutes, indicating the very short commuting times that residents have in the downtown area. SSA commuters have longer commute times with over 40% traveling between 15 to 29 minutes to work and over 10% traveling more than 30 minutes.

A drive-time map showing travel times from the geographic center of Springfield follows this page.

VII-8

Springfield, IL Drive Time

1:553,650

Primary Study Area 10 minutes 20 minutes 30 minutes

0

2

4

8

12 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Public Transit Availability Local Bus Service In Springfield, public bus service is provided by the Springfield Mass Transit District (SMTD). Within the PSA, 19 fixed routes operate. Routes are split between nighttime and daytime schedules. Daytime routes operating between 6:00 am and 6:00 pm, while five routes run from 6:45 pm to until the last passenger leaves the bus before the start of the daytime schedule. A majority of SMTD buses are handicapped accessible. Buses do not operate on major holidays, including New Year’s Day, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day. Routes to historic sites are available and serve the following locations: 

Illinois State Capitol Building



Old State Capitol Building



Illinois State Museum



Abraham Lincoln Presidential Museum



Lincoln's Tomb



Lincoln's Home



Grand Army of the Republic Museum



Dana Thomas House

One-way trips cost $1.25 for adults, $0.60 for children, students, seniors (65+) and the disabled, and $2.00 for ADA Para-transit. Children under 4 years of age ride for free. SMTD passes are also available, including a pricing structure of 20 rides for $20.00 for adults and 20 rides for $12.00 for persons with disabilities and seniors. Access Springfield (Para-transit), a special point to point service for persons with disabilities offers a pass of 10 rides for $25.00. All SMTD buses are equipped with bike racks. Additional services offered include: demand-response pick-up and weekend subscriptions. Based on SMTD route maps, schedules, and services, the PSA is well served by a comprehensive public transit system. For people who do not have access to a private car, are unable to walk long distances, or cannot afford a taxi, the SMTD system facilitates their personal mobility not only within PSA, but throughout the rest of Springfield. All major employment centers and community amenities are served by the system. While private cars offer convenience and speed, public transit offers assistance and affordability. The SMTD public transit system is an asset and strength of the PSA housing market.

VII-10

National Bus Service Greyhound offers long-distance bus service to and from Springfield. The Greyhound bus stop in Springfield is located at 2815 North Dirksen Parkway, in the northeastern portion of the city. It operates between 10:15 am and 1:00 am. Approximately 200 people use Greyhound in Springfield each week. With over 4 daily routes, Springfield enables residents, tourist and professionals the ability to commute to and from Springfield. National Train Service Amtrak provides passenger rail services in Springfield with routes to Chicago, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Memphis and beyond. The current Amtrak station in Springfield is located at 100 North 3rd Street, in the northwestern portion of downtown Springfield. Fees vary based on the ultimate destination of the traveler. As part of a planned rail line reconfiguration project, a new multimodal facility is being planned to house Amtrak and a bus transfer station. Once developed, these facilities are expected to offer expanded and more convenient services to commuters in Springfield and will likely increase Springfield’s appeal to both business travelers and tourists considering traveling to and from Springfield. A map illustrating public bus routes in Springfield follow this page.

VII-11

Walkability The ability to perform errands or access community amenities affordably and conveniently by walking or biking, rather than driving, contributes favorably to personal mobility. A person whose residence is within walking or biking distance of major neighborhood services and amenities will most likely find their housing market more desirable. To evaluate “walk-ability” and “bike-ability” within the PSA, the on-line service “Walk Score” was used. A 13-point grid was used to secure values from across the entire PSA. The address of each grid point was entered into the website for scoring. Walk Score takes a specific location and analyzes its proximity to a standardized list of community attributes. It assesses not only distance, but the number and variety of neighborhood amenities as well. A Walk Score and Bike Score can range from a low of 0 to a high of 100, with the following descriptors: Walk Score®

Description

90–100

Walker's Paradise Daily errands do not require a car.

70–89

Very Walkable Most errands can be accomplished on foot.

50–69

Somewhat Walkable Some amenities within walking distance.

25–49

Car-Dependent A few amenities within walking distance.

0–24

Very Car-Dependent Almost all errands require a car.

Bike Score®

Description

90–100

Biker's Paradise Daily errands can be accomplished on a bike.

70–89

Very Bikeable Biking is convenient for most trips.

50–69

Bikeable Some bike infrastructure.

0–49

Somewhat Bikeable Minimal bike infrastructure.

VII-13

When the 13 grid point addresses were entered into the website, the following Walk and Bike Scores were generated: Grid Point 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Address Used 100 West Carpenter Street 600 East Carpenter Street 1100 East Carpenter Street 400 East Madison Street 900 East Madison Street 100 West Adams Street 600 East Adams Street 1100 East Adams Street 400 East Jackson Street 900 East Jackson Street 100 West Lawrence Avenue 600 East Lawrence Avenue 1100 East Lawrence Avenue Overall Springfield

Walk Score 77 77 68 82 74 83 83 77 80 78 74 80 74 43

Walk Score Descriptor Very Walkable Very Walkable Somewhat Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Very Walkable Car-Dependent

Bike Score 50 54 52 53 59 53 57 61 55 62 55 58 62 42

Bike Score Descriptor Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Bikeable Somewhat Bikeable

From the preceding table, Grid Points 4, 6, and 7 scored the highest Walk Scores (82 to 83 points) and received “very walkable” ratings. These grid points are located in the northwest portion of the PSA. Grid Points 3, 5, and 13 scored the lowest Walk Scores (68 to 74 points) and received “somewhat walkable to walkable” ratings. These grid points are located in the eastern half of the PSA. Although Bike Scores are higher in the eastern half of the PSA than in the western half, all Bike Scores within the PSA received a “bikeable” rating. The PSA clearly out-scored the city as a whole in both Walk Scores and Bike Scores, indicating a less car-dependent environment within the PSA. If walkability is a favorable measure of personal movement and the ease of personal movement contributes favorably to a housing market, the northwest portion of the PSA should represent a more desirable sub-market of the PSA, due to its high scores. A map showing the location of the 13 PSA grid points used for Walk and Bike scoring follows this page:

VII-14

Springfield, IL Grid Point Map

Grid Point Primary Study Area

1

2

4

6

5

7

9

11

1:15,000

3

8

10

12

13

0

0.05 0.1

0.2

0.3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Parking Ease A total of 21 notable parking lots and/or facilities were identified in the PSA, primarily in the northern and western portions near many of the current and former state government facilities. Some of the largest parking lots include those adjacent to St John’s Hospital and the Springfield and state government offices. Generally, parking fees range from $3.00 to $9.75 daily or $24.00 to $70.00 monthly. According to local sources, some parking lots are under used or not used at all, including those located at the southeast corner of East Jefferson Street, North 9th and 10th Streets, East Madison Street and North 4th Street, as well as East Mason Street and North 6th Street. Parking information is presented in the following table: Parking Facility Old State Capitol * 7th & Washington - PCCC Ramp 7th & Monroe - Hilton Ramp 6th & Capitol - Ramp 7th & Capitol - Church 435 S. 6th 5th & Jackson 1st & Washington 4th & Washington - City Ramp 7th & Capitol - City Library

Monthly Fee $70.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $55.00 $51.00 $51.00 $51.00 $50-$60 $50.00

Parking Facility ALPLM - Ramp 2nd & Washington 525 W. Jefferson* 6th & Lawrence* 5th & Madison 630 S. 4th 10th & Adams 10th & Jefferson Walnut & Jefferson -

Monthly Fee $50.00 $47.00 $40.00 $39.00 $35.00 $35.00 $30.00 $24.00 $21.00 -

These facilities also offer hourly rates, generally ranging from $0.75 to $1.50 an hour. In addition to these larger parking areas, several streets offer on-street metered parking. These are primarily located in the western and central portions of the PSA, with meter rates of around $1.00 per hour. Overall, public parking in the PSA appears to be abundant and affordable. While on-site parking is more limited for PSA housing users, some (not all) housing properties offer surface lot parking. A map delineating the location of the larger parking facilities is included on the following page.

VII-16

Springfield, IL Parking Locations

1:9,102

Parking

0

0.035 0.07

0.14

0.21 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

In summary, downtown Springfield appears to have good mobility. It enjoys short commuting times, low car-dependency with abundant and affordable parking, comprehensive public transit, excellent walkability, and numerous opportunities for outdoor recreational/entertainment movement. As a result, the downtown area will appeal to a variety of prospective residents, including to those with no vehicles or those seeking a walkable community. C. CRIME RISK Crime risk, whether perceived or real, can influence a person’s decision to move to, leave, or remain at, a particular location. The desirability of a housing market, whether citywide or neighborhood-specific, is often judged by its level of security and safety. Existing and potential residents constantly monitor crime risk, both on a “personal” and “property” basis. When certain geographic areas exhibit higher crime rates, potential residents tend to move elsewhere and existing residents relocate. Conversely, areas with lower crime rates tend to attract potential residents and retain existing ones. Stronger housing markets normally enjoy low or decreasing crime rates, while weaker housing markets usually suffer from high or increasing crime rates. For this study, the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR) was used. The FBI collects data from roughly 16,000 separate law enforcement agencies across the country and compiles it into the UCR. The most recent data shows a 95% coverage rate of all jurisdictions nationwide. Applied Geographic Solutions uses the UCR at the jurisdictional level to model seven crime types for specific geographic areas. Risk indexes are standardized based on national averages. A Risk Index value of 100 for a particular crime type in a certain area means that the probability of the risk is consistent with the national average. It should be noted that aggregate indexes for total crime, personal crime and property crime are not weighted, and a murder is no more significant statistically than petty theft. Therefore, caution should be exercised when using them.

VII-18

The following table compares the UCR crime risk probabilities for the four selected geographies in this study: CRIME RISK INDEX SSA SPRINGFIELD 121 121

Total Crime

PSA 130

ILINOIS 103

Personal Crime Murder Rape Robbery Assault

158 116 196 180 139

136 99 145 132 160

136 100 145 132 160

124 122 106 140 125

Property Crime Burgulary Larcency Vehicular Theft

128 144 165 53

132 157 169 46

132 157 168 46

101 91 109 83

Source: Applied Geographic Solutions

The overall Crime Index for the Primary Study Area (PSA) is 130. While this is above the national (100) and state average (103), it is very comparable to the 121 crime index for both the SSA and entire City of Springfield. The personal Crime Index of 158 for the PSA is notably higher than the SSA’s index of 136, while the property Crime Index of 128 for the PSA is very similar but slightly below the Crime Index for the SSA. Based on this preceding crime data, it appears that actual crime frequency for the downtown area is generally similar to the rest of the City of Springfield. Therefore, any concerns that downtown Springfield is not safe is likely based on perception and not reality. Maps illustrating crime risk within the PSA follows this page.

VII-19

Springfield, IL 2012 Crime Index

1:165,792

Primary Study Area Secondary Study Area

Census Block Groups 2012 Total Crime Risk < 50 51 - 100 101 - 150 151 - 200 201 - 300 301+

0

0.5

1

2

3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

D. PUBLIC EDUCATION Education quality, whether perceived or real, can influence a person’s decision to move to, leave, or remain at, a particular location. The desirability of a housing market, whether citywide or neighborhoodspecific, is often judged by its public school system and post-secondary educational offerings. Existing and potential residents constantly monitor educational performance, both on a district and single-school level. When certain geographic areas contain lower-performing public schools, potential residents may move elsewhere and existing residents relocate. Conversely, areas with higher-performing public schools attract potential residents and retain existing ones. Stronger housing markets normally enjoy better performing school districts, while weaker housing markets suffer from struggling schools. The following table contains the most recent performance data on the schools serving the Springfield Downtown study area. Figures for school wide math, reading, and science tests are a measure of the percentage of tests receiving a score of "proficient" or higher. We have used data from Illinois Interactive Report Card (test scores) and from the Illinois State Board of Education (graduation rates) for the 2011 to 2012 school year.

Performance Criteria Overall Schoolwide Math, Reading & Science Proficiency Test Overall District Performance Illinois Statewide Performance School Met Math Ayp* School Met Reading Ayp Illinois Graduation Rate: 82.3%

Dubois Elementary (K-5)

School/Survey Area 2011- 2012 School Year Graham Mcclernand Franklin Elementary Elementary M.S. (K-5) (K-5) (6-8)

Grant M.S. (6-8)

Springfield H.S. (9-12)

75.1% 67.6%

62.6% 67.6%

63.1% 67.6%

76.0% 67.6%

70.1% 67.6%

51.9% 67.6%

76.7% Yes No -

76.7% No No -

76.7% No No -

76.7% No No -

76.7% No No -

76.7% No No 77.7%

Source: Northern Illinois University, with support from the Illinois State Board of Education *AYP- Average yearly progress

Figures for Dubois Elementary, Franklin Middle School and Grant Middle School are comparable to the Illinois statewide average and higher than the overall Springfield SD186 average. However those figures for Graham Elementary, McClernand Elementary, and Springfield High School are well below statewide and district averages. As a result, some of the local schools serving downtown Springfield may not be an attribute to prospective residents with school age children. School district maps are on the following pages.

VII-21

Springfield, IL School Districts

1:115,000

Primary Study Area

School Districts Name Dubois Elementary Graham Elementary McClernand Elementary Franklin Middle Graham Middle Springfield High

0

0.45

0.9

1.8

2.7 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

Springfield, IL School Districts (Primary Study Area)

1:14,108

Primary Study Area

School Districts Name Dubois Elementary Graham Elementary McClernand Elementary Franklin Middle Graham Middle Springfield High

0

0.05 0.1

0.2

0.3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

E. COMMUNITY ATTRIBUTES The location, type, and number of community attributes (both services and amenities) significantly impact housing market performance and the ability of a market to support existing and future residential development. A geographic area served by an abundance of amenities and services should be more desirable than one with minimal offerings, and its housing market should perform better accordingly. As a result, community attributes for the Primary Study Area (PSA), which is the downtown Springfield area, were examined. An overview of downtown Springfield community attributes is provided that includes: 1) a list of services and amenities by name and type, 2) a brief narrative describing their collective scope, and 3) a map indicating their locations. This overview should not be considered exhaustive evaluations of attributes offered within the downtown area, since data and marketplace conditions change constantly. Community Attributes Name Horace Mann Life Insurance Co St John's Hospital Springfield Police Department City Of Springfield State Of Illinois Illinois Department Of Revenue Memorial Medical Center Illinois State Police County Market Carolyn's Food Mart Springfield Arts And Entertainment District Hoogland Center for the Arts (Art Gallery & Theater) Lincoln Magnet School Lincoln Magnet School Citgo Shell Supermart Bank Of Springfield US Bank (two locations) Marine Bank Chase PNC Bank Illinois National Bank Super Mart Shell Oil Citgo

VII-24

Type Employment Center

Grocery Entertainment/Theater Elementary School Middle School Convenience Store Bank

Gas Station

Community Attributes Name Celtic Mist Pub Bennigan's Grill & Tavern Saputo's Saras Grill & Eastern Cuisine Lindsay's Restaurant Starbucks Yellow Rose Tea Room Bamboo Garden H G Steakhouse & Grill Holy Land Diner Pizza Machine Dublin Pub Subway (3 Locations) Brewhaus El Casino Mexican Bar & Grill No Name Bar Cold Stone Creamery Jimmy John's Floyds Thirst Parlor Coney Island Bentoh's Cafe Moxo Llc Gallina Pizza Catch 22 Bar None Station House Stella Blue Cafe Brio Firehouse Tavern Lincoln Visitor Center Park Early Head Start Grace Lutheran Church Korean Christian Church First Christian Church International House Of Prayer Cathedral Of Immaculate Conception First Church Christ Scientist Trinity Evangelical Lutheran First Presbyterian Church Springfield Fire Department St John's Hospital Memorial Medical Center

VII-25

Type Restaurant/ Bars

Park/Plazas Child Care Worship Centers

Fire Hospital

Community Attributes Name Lincoln Library Circuit Court Law Library Abraham Lincoln Library Illinois State Library Elijah Iles House Grand Army Museum Vachel Lindsay Home Dana Thomas House National Museum Of Surveying Lincoln-Herndon Law Office IHPA Korean War Veteran National Museum Abraham Lincoln Museum Complete Care Pharmacy CVS Pharmacy County Market Pharmacy Springfield Police Department Illinois State Police Department U.S. Post Office Springfield Senior Citizen YMCA Uptown Looks Reflection Hair Design

Type Library

Museum/Historic Sites

Pharmacy

Police Post Office Senior Services Community/ Fitness Center Salon

Generally, the Primary Study Area (PSA), or downtown Springfield, is served by a large variety of community amenities. A majority of the community services are located in the central and northwestern portions of town, along East Adams Street, South 6th Street, South 5th Street and East Carpenter Street. The Springfield Arts and Entertainment District corridor also includes several small retail shops, as well as restaurants. This corridor also serves as the primary attraction for the downtown Springfield and attracts visitors for variety of restaurants, historical attractions and night life. Notable healthcare facilities in downtown include The St. John’s Hospital and Memorial Medical Center, which is located slightly northwest of the PSA and also serves the PSA. Several doctor’s and dentists offices are located in the downtown area and are primarily located adjacent to the St. John’s Hospital and Memorial Medical Center. The downtown YMCA, which is located in the southwestern portion of the PSA along East Cook Street and South 4th Street, serves as the primary full fitness center for the PSA. Primary and secondary schools that serve the PSA are located outside of the PSA, with the Lincoln Magnet School serving K-8 at the eastern side of the PSA. Primary employment opportunities include Horace Mann Life Insurance Company, St John's Hospital, Springfield Police Department, City of Springfield and the State of Illinois, though numerous retail and professional employment opportunities exist in many parts of downtown.

VII-26

The downtown area offers numerous entertainment options, with a large number of offerings in the central portion of town near the Old State Capitol Building. This area offers several bars and restaurants that range from highend establishments to sandwich shops. Despite the large number of most key community services, the downtown area offers a limited number of options such as movie theatres or recreation centers, though the downtown area does feature the Hoogland Center for the Arts that contains art galleries and a theatre. Further, we did not identify any affordable shopping options or major retail centers. As a result, downtown residents must travel to the southern portion of Springfield to access such things as Walmart Supercenter, Target and Capitol City Shopping Center. This may limit the current appeal of downtown to current and prospective residents. Notable community services located outside the PSA are detailed below: Community Attributes (out of PSA) Distance to PSA Center (South 6th Street and East Name Type Adams Street) AMC Showplace 8 Movie Theater 4.9 Southeast AMC Showplace 12 Movie Theater 7.1 Southwest Capitol City Shopping Center Shopping Center 5.0 Southeast Parkway Pointe Shopping Center 6.9 Southwest Cravens Laundromat Laundromat 1.1 North Fast Track Laundry Center Laundromat 1.3 South Ace Hardware Home Improvement 1.0 West Lowes Home Improvement Home Improvement 4.8 Northeast Lowes Home Improvement Home Improvement 6.2 Southwest Aldi Grocery 1.3 North Save-a-Lot Grocery 1.8 East

In summary, downtown Springfield is well served by most key community services, with several restaurants and bars, banks, convenience stores, churches, civic buildings, and public services (i.e. police, fire and medical). Also, given the site’s downtown location, it is close to numerous employment opportunities ranging from service industry jobs to professional employment. These community services and employment opportunities will enable the downtown area to continue to attract residents to live downtown. While there are no notable discount shopping opportunities, including grocers or department stores, or movie theaters or laundry mats, the City’s public bus systems is relatively extensive and enables downtown residence convenient access to community services located outside of the downtown area. A map of notable community services is included on the following page.

VII-27

Springfield, IL Community Attributes within PSA

Legend PSA

COUNTY MARKET

COUNTY MARKET PHARMACY

bank

ST JOHN'S HOSPITAL

ST JOHN'S HOSPITAL

MARINE BANK

child care church SUBWAY

convenience store

YELLOW ROSE TEA ROOM

entertainment fire gas LINCOLN VISITOR CENTER PARK

grocery

BANK OF SPRINGFIELD

EL CASINO MEXICAN BAR & GRILL

historic sites

SUBWAY

COMPLETE CARE PHARMACY

laundry and drycleaning HORACE MANN LIFE INSURANCE CO

library

ABRAHAM LINCOLN LIBRARY BREWHAUS NAT. MUSEUM OF SURVEYING LINCOLN-HERNDON LAW OFC IHPA STATION HOUSE

UPTOWN LOOKS

CATCH 22 CHASE

EARLY HEAD START

middle school

CELTIC MIST PUB

museum

OLD CAPITOL BUILDING PNC BANK COLD STONE CREAMERY CAFE MOXO LLC LINDSAY'S RESTAURANT SUBWAY US BANK KOREAN WAR MUSEUM REFLCTION HAIR DESIGN CONEY ISLAND CIRCUIT COURT LAW LIBRARY BENTOH'S ABRAHAM LINCOLN MUSEUM STELLA BLUE SARAS GRILL & EASTERN CUISINE STARBUCKS FLOYDS THIRST PARLOR TRINITY EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN BRICKHOUSE DOWNTOWN BENNIGAN'S GRILL & TAVERN JIMMY JOHN'S US POST OFFICE SPRINGFIELD ARTS DISTRICT SAPUTO'S ILLINOIS STATE LIBRARY BAR NONE CAROLYN'S FOOD MART SPRINGFIELD SENIOR CITIZEN GALLINA PIZZA CAFE BRIO NO NAME BAR

park pharmacy police post office

FIRST PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH CITY OF SPRINGFIELD SPRINGFIELD POLICE DEPT FIREHOUSE TAVERN LINCOLN LIBRARY

recreation center

LINCOLN MAGNET SCHOOL SPRINGFIELD POLICE DEPT

SPRINGFIELD FIRE DEPT

restaurant

LINCOLN MAGNET SCHOOL

ILLINOIS NATIONAL BANK

senior services

GRACE LUTHERAN CHURCH HOOGLAND CTR FOR THE ARTS

shopping employers_1000_5000 LINCOLN HOME

VACHEL LINDSAY HOME

FIRST CHURCH CHRIST SCNTST

GRAND ARMY MUSEUM

INTERNATIONAL HOUSE OF PRAYER

ELIJAH ILES HOUSE

BAMBOO GARDEN

H G STEAKHOUSE & GRILL DUBLIN PUB SHELL SUPERMART

PIZZA MACHINE HOLY LAND DINER

US BANK YMCA

SUPER MART SHELL OIL FIRST CHRISTIAN CHURCH KOREAN CHRISTIAN CHURCH

DANA THOMAS HOUSE

0

0.04

0.08

0.16

0.24 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

1:10,500

Springfield, IL Community Attributes Absent from PSA

LOWES HOME IMPROVEMENT

Legend PSA barber and beauty church cinema convenience store gas grocery

CRAVENS LAUNDROMAT ALDI

hospital pharmacy

MEMORIAL MEDICAL CTR MEMORIAL MEDICAL CTR

shopping

CVS PHARMACY CITGO CITGO

employers_1000_5000

ACE HARDWARE ILLINOIS DEPT OF REVENUE

Shopping Center

SAVE-A-LOT

Gross Leasable Area

< 500,000 sq. ft.

STATE OF ILLINOIS

< 1,000,000 sq. ft. CATHEDRAL OF IMMACULATE CNCPTN

ILLINOIS STATE POLICE ILLINOIS STATE POLICE DEPT

< 3,200,000 sq. ft.

FAST TRACK LAUNDRY CENTER

Town & Country Shopping Center

White Oaks Plaza White Oaks Mall AMC SHOWPLACE 8

LOWES HOME IMPROVEMENT

AMC SHOWPLACE 12

Parkway Pointe 0

0.25

0.5

1

1.5 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

1:70,026

VIII. HOUSING GAP/DEMAND ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION Since the development of new housing in Springfield could include a variety of financing options, our estimates for the number of units that can be supported consider a variety of income levels. For the purposes of this analysis, we have segmented demand into three levels of household income types: 1.) Low Income, 2.) Moderate Income, and 3.) High-Income. The actual household incomes for each segment differ between the demand for rentals versus for-sale housing and are discussed in further detail within their corresponding sections. 1. Rental Housing Needs Housing to meet the housing needs of both current and future households in Springfield will most likely take the shape of apartment, duplex and single-family housing alternatives. There are a variety of financing mechanisms that can support the development of rental housing alternatives such as federal government programs and state programs, as well as conventional financing through private lending institutions. These different financing alternatives often have specific income and rent restrictions, which affect the market they target. We have evaluated the Springfield market’s ability to support rental housing based on three levels of income/affordability. While there may be overlap among these three levels due to program targeting and rent levels charged, we have established specific income stratifications that are exclusive of each other in order to eliminate double-counting demand. The three levels of affordability are described below: 

Low Income Households – There are a variety of federal housing programs that assist in meeting the needs of low-income households. While the actual parameters for qualifying housing based on income levels are affected by the program type, household size limits, and other programmatic restrictions, most projects using federal housing program financing or assistance are occupied by households with annual incomes under $25,000. This income level generally represents 40% of Area Median Household income levels (depending upon household sizes) and is often associated with federally assisted projects. For the purposes of this analysis, we have limited our demand estimates for housing that serves low-income households to households with income within incomes up to 40% of Area Median Household Income (AMHI).

VIII-1



Moderate Income Households – Development of housing for moderate income households is often financed through state issued (but federally financed) Tax Credits under the Section 42 program. Such housing is restricted to households with incomes of up to 60% of AMHI. While the minimum income requirement is usually based on the lowest gross rent that a Tax Credit project would charge, for the purposes of this analysis, we have limited the minimum income requirement to the maximum income limit ($25,000) used for the lowincome households demand estimates. The maximum income limit used for this housing segment is $40,000.



High Income Households – Projects that are not limited by federal and state government programs are considered market-rate housing. Market-rate units can fall within the entire spectrum of affordability, as it is up to ownership and management of a market-rate project to determine the rents to charge and the corresponding income qualifications of prospective residents. For the purposes of this analysis, we assume households with incomes above 60% of AMHI will respond to market-rate housing. The income level used for this housing segment is $40,000 and higher.

The following table summarizes the three income segments used in this analysis to estimate potential demand. Income Range Household Type (% AMHI) Very Low Income (<40% AMHI) Moderate Income (40% to 60% AMHI) High Income (61% to 80% AMHI)

Income Range <$25,000 $25,000 to $40,000 $40,000+

While different state and federal housing programs establish income and rent restrictions for their respective programs, in reality, there is potential overlap between windows of affordability between the programs. Further, those who respond to a certain product or program type vary. This is because housing markets are highly dynamic, with households entering and exiting by tenure and economic profile. Further, qualifying policies of property owners and management impact the households that may respond to specific project types. As such, while a household may prefer a certain product, ownership/management qualifying procedures (i.e. review of credit history, current income verification, criminal background checks, etc.) may affect housing choices that are available.

VIII-2

Regardless, we have used the preceding income segmentations as the ranges that a typical project would use to qualify residents, based on their household income. Ultimately, any new product added to the market will be influenced by many decisions made by the developer and management. This includes eligibility requirements, design type, location, rents, amenities and other features. As such, our estimates assume that the rents, quality, location, design and features are marketable and will appeal to most renters. There are generally three primary sources of demand for new rental housing. These sources include the following:   

New Housing Needed to Meet Projected Household Growth Additional Units Required for a Balanced Market Replacement Housing for Demolished and Substandard Housing

New Renter Household Growth The first source of demand is generally easily quantifiable, and includes the net change in renter households between the baseline year of 2012 and the projection year of 2017. Negative growth is projected to occur among low-income households (-455) and among moderate income households (-113). Household growth is projected to be very significant (785) among high income households. Units Required for a Balanced Market The second demand component considers the number of units a market requires to offer balanced market conditions, which is usually a market with 5% of the rental supply available (95% occupied). Healthy markets require approximately 4% to 6% of the rental market to be available in order to allow for inner-market mobility and encourage competitive rental rates. Markets with vacancy rates below a healthy rate often suffer from rapid rent increases, minimal tenant turnover (which may result in deferred maintenance), and residents being forced into housing situations that do not meet their housing needs. The vacancy rates by program type and/or affordability level are based on our survey of area rental alternatives.

VIII-3

Replacement Housing Demand for new units as replacement housing takes into consider that while some properties are adequately maintained and periodically updated, a portion of the existing stock reaches a point of functional obsolescence over time and needs to be replaced. This comes in the form of either units that are substandard (lacking complete plumbing and/or are overcrowded) or units expected to be removed from the housing stock through demolitions. According to US Census data, approximately 3.1% to 71.2% of renter households are considered to be living in substandard housing, depending upon income levels (low-income households have a disproportionately high share of residents living in substandard housing, primarily attributed to rent burdened housing situations). Additionally, based on own research and on secondary studies, approximately 0.3% of existing housing stock typically should be replaced annually, which is done through demolitions. In older, more established markets, like Springfield, this share may be higher. Based on both an evaluation of existing housing data and our personal observations of the Springfield housing market, we believe an annual demolition rate of up to 0.2% (1.0% over five years) is appropriate. The demolition rate used is higher for lower end product than it is for higher end product. The table on the following page includes a demand calculation for rental units targeting the three income segments considered in this analysis.

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2012 - 2017 Rental Demand Potential by Income Level & Rent Springfield, Illinois Primary Study Area Household Income Range Less Than $25,000 $25,000-$40,000 Rent Affordability Less Than $625 $625-$1,000 I. Growth Demand Household-Based: 2012 Renter Households 9,000 4,196 2017 Total Estimated Renter Households 8,545 4,083 New Renter Household Growth Over Projection Period (5 Years) -455 -113 II. Total Units Needed For Balanced (95.0% Occupied) Market 2012 Occupied Rental Housing Units 9,000 4,196 Estimated Vacant Units in 2017* 0 373 Estimated Total Units (Occupied & Vacant) 2017 9,000 4,569 Estimated Total Units Needed For Balanced Market 2017 450 228 Additional/Fewer Rental Housing Units Needed for Balanced Market 450 -145 III. Replacement of Existing Rental Product Total Occupied Rental Units in 2012 9,000 4,196 Multiplied by the Share of Substandard Housing Units** 6,408 1,250 Multiplied by the Share of Replacement Housing Needed *** 90 21 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2017 6,498 1,271 IV. Total Supply And Demand New Income-Qualified Renter Household -455 -113 Units Needed for Balanced Market 450 -145 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2017 6,498 1,271 Total Targeted Units Needed Over Projection Period (5 Years) 6,493 1,013 Multiplied by Potential Capture Rate 5% - 10% 5% - 10% Total Site Specific Units of Support 325 - 649 51 - 101

$40,000+ $1,000+ 6,085 6,869 785 6,085 542 6,627 331 -211 6,085 189 0 189 785 -211 189 763 5% - 10% 38 - 76

*Vacancy based on Bowen National Research field survey of each rental housing alternative and identification of planned or proposed projects that might be built in the market **Substandard housing includes the share of rent-burdened, overcrowded and lack of complete plumbing ***Considers annual replacement rate of existing rental product between 2012 and 2017

Assuming capture rates of 5% to 10%, there is a potential for at least 325 to 649 rental units targeted to households with income below $25,000, at least 51 to 101 rental units for households with incomes between $25,000 and $40,000, and at least 38 to 76 market-rate units for households with incomes of $40,000 and higher. It is critical to understand that these estimates represent potential units of demand by targeted income level. The actual number of rental units that can be supported will ultimately be contingent upon a variety of factors including the location of a project, proposed features (i.e. rents, amenities, bedroom type, unit mix, square footage, etc.), product quality, design (i.e. townhouse, single-family homes, or garden-style units), management and marketing efforts. As such, each targeted segment outlined in the table above may be able to support more or less than the number of units shown in the table. The potential number of units of support should be considered a general guideline to residential development planning.

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2. For-Sale Housing Demand Estimates This section of the report addresses the market demand for for-sale housing alternatives in Springfield. Like the rental housing demand estimates, we have segmented potential demand by three different income levels. This includes low income households (making less than $30,000 annually), moderate income households (making between $30,000 and $60,000), and high income households (making $60,000 or higher). There are a variety of factors that impact the demand for new homes within an area. In particular, area and neighborhood perceptions, quality of school districts, socioeconomic characteristics, mobility patterns, city demolition and revitalization efforts, and number active builders all play a role in generating new home sales. Support can be both internal (households moving within the market) and external (households new to the market). While new household growth alone is often the primary contributor to demand for new for-sale housing, the lack of significant development of such housing in Springfield, particularly in the downtown area, over the past several years and the age and condition of the existing housing stock are indicators that demand for new housing will also be generated from the need to replace some of the older housing stock. As a result, we have considered the following specific sources of demand for new for-sale housing in Springfield:    

New Housing Needed to Meet Projected Household Growth Additional Units Required for a Balanced Market Replacement Housing for Functionally Obsolete/Substandard Housing Removal of Existing Housing through Demolitions

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For the purposes of this analysis, we conservatively assume that a homebuyer will be required to make a minimum down payment of $10,000 or 10.0% of the purchase price for the purchase of a new home. Further, we assume that a reasonable down payment will equal approximately 35.0% to 45.0% of a household’s annual income. Using this methodology, the following represents the potential purchase price by income level (this analysis also assumes a fixed rate of 5.0% financed over a period of 30 years): Income Level Less Than $29,999 $30,000-$59,999 $60,000 and Higher

Down Payment $10,000 $10,000-$20,000 $20,000+

Maximum Purchase Price Up to $100,000 $100,000-$199,999 $200,000and Higher

Naturally, there are cases where a household can afford a higher down payment to purchase a more expensive home. There are also cases in which a household purchases a less expensive home although they could afford a higher purchase price. The actual support for new housing will ultimately be based on a variety of factors such as price points, square footages, amenities, design, quality of finishes, and location. Considering these variations, this broad analysis provides the basis in which to estimate the potential sales of new for-sale housing within Springfield. New Household Growth The following represents a distribution of estimated 2012 and projected 2017 owner-occupied households by income and corresponding affordable price points of housing within Springfield: Income Level Less than $30,000 $30,000 - $59,999 $60,000 and Higher

Housing Price Range Less than $100,000 $100,000-$199,999 $200,000 and Higher

2012 Households 6,310 9,275 16,340

2017 Households 5,793 8,998 18,259

Household Growth -517 -277 1,919

Source: ESRI and Bowen National Research

As the preceding table illustrates, there will be a net loss of 517 households in Springfield with sufficient incomes to afford housing below $100,000. It is projected that there will be a loss of 277 new households that can afford housing priced between $100,000 and $199,999 in the market. Only households that can afford housing priced $200,000 or higher will potentially increase in the market, adding 1,919 households. These households have been considered in our overall demand estimates.

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It should be noted that changes in the number of households within a specific income segment does not necessarily mean that households are coming to or leaving the market, but instead, many of these households are likely to experience income growth or loss that would move them into a higher or lower income segment. Units Required for a Balanced Market Healthy, well-balanced for-sale housing markets typically require a sufficient supply of available product at a variety of price points in order to allow for internal market mobility (allowing people to upgrade or downsize their housing based on their household needs), to keep household pricing stable (lack of supply drives pricing up exceedingly high, while excessive supply could decrease housing prices), and to allow sufficient choices to attract new households to the Springfield market. Typically, in most forsale housing markets, vacancy rates near 4% to 6% are generally considered ideal. However, in Springfield, given the lack of projected household growth, we conservatively believe the market could experience healthy market conditions at a 4% vacancy rate. Therefore, we have applied this 4% vacancy rate (96% occupancy rate) to the existing housing supply to estimate the number of vacant units that would be required at each pricing segment to achieve a “balanced” market. Replacement Housing Given the limited development of new housing units in Springfield over the past several years, homebuyers have primarily been limited to choosing from the established housing stock, much of which is more than 40 years old. Based on our on-site analysis of the existing housing stock, it appears the quality of housing varies greatly throughout the city. This variety in quality likely contributes to the variety of home pricing in the market. Nationally, approximately 0.3% of all housing stock is considered functionally obsolete or uninhabitable on an annual basis. Certainly, factors such as the quality and type of housing originally constructed, local perceptions and expectations, seasonal climate influences, scope of city building and property maintenance codes, and political and other socioeconomic factors influence the need and rate for replacement housing. Given the fact that a large share of owner-occupied product is well over 40 years old and a notable share of the housing we identified is of lower quality, we have applied an annual up to 0.3% housing replacement ratio to the existing stock to estimate the number of for-sale units that should be replaced in Springfield over the study’s projection period (2012 to 2017). Based on the 2010 Census, up to 3.6% is considered to be substandard housing.

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Substandard housing is considered housing that suffers from overcrowded households, lacks completed kitchen plumbing or lacks completed bathroom plumbing. Since is likely that lower priced product has a higher propensity for having substandard conditions, for the purposes of this analysis we have applied a 3.6% substandard ratio to product priced below $100,000, 1.8% to product priced between $100,000 and $200,000, and we did not apply any substandard ratio to housing priced above $200,000. Demand Estimates The following table summarizes the potential market support for new forsale housing in downtown Springfield by 2017. 2012-2017 For-Sale Housing Demand by Income Level & Price Point Springfield, Illinois Primary Study Area Household Income Range Less than $30,000 $30,000-$60,000 Housing Price Affordability Less than $100,000 $100,000-$200,000 I. Growth of Owner-Occupied Households: 2012 Total Income-Qualified Owner-Occupied Households 6,310 9,275 2017 Total Income-Qualified Owner-Occupied Households 5,793 8,998 New Owner-Occupied Household Growth (2012 to 2017) -517 -277 II. Total Units Needed For Balanced (95.0% Occupied) Market Total Owner-Occupied Units in 2012 6,310 9,275 Estimated Vacant Units in 2017* 469 233 Estimated Total Units (Occupied & Vacant) 2017 6,779 9,508 Estimated Total Units Needed For Balanced Market 2017 271 380 Additional/Fewer Rental Housing Units Needed for Balanced Market -198 147 III. Replacement of Existing Rental Product Total Occupied Rental Units in 2012 6,310 9,275 Multiplied by the Share of Substandard Housing Units** 227 167 Multiplied by the Share of Demolished Units *** 95 46 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2017 322 213 IV. Total Supply And Demand New Owner-Occupied Household Growth (2012 to 2017) -517 -277 Housing Units Needed for Balanced Market -198 147 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2017 322 213 Total Potential Units Needed Over Projection Period (5 Years) -393 83 Multiplied by Potential Capture Rate X 10% X 10% Total Site Specific Units of Support 0 8 *Includes available for-sale product and for-sale product in the development pipeline **Includes substandard rate (overcrowded and lacking complete plumbing facilities) ***Considers annual demolition rate of existing for-sale product depending upon price point

As the preceding table illustrates, there is a deficit of for-sale housing of 8 units priced between $100,000 and $199,000, as well as 48 units priced above $200,000. The lack of growth among low-income households combined with the large inventory of low-end housing product yields no support for product priced under $100,000. While there is some support for VIII-9

$60,000+ $200,000+ 16,340 18,259 1,919

16,340 183 16,523 661 478 16,340 0 0 0 1,919 478 0 2,397 X 2% 48

product priced between $100,000 and $199,999, the projected loss of households and the fair base of inventory limit the potential for such product. However, the significant household growth projected for higher income households will create an opportunity for high-end product. Assuming the downtown can capture 2% of this market yields potential support for up to 48 units priced at $200,000 or higher. It is important to note that the primary source differs for each price segment. The majority of potential support among the lowest priced product (less than $100,000) originates from replacement housing. This is not surprising, as the lowest priced housing currently in the market is typically the oldest and lowest quality housing in Springfield. While demand from the replacement of the lowest priced housing generates most of the demand for this pricing segment, this assumes that a developer will have the ability to construct marketable product priced below $100,000. This may be difficult without some type of government-assistance or having the ability to develop a large enough product to get the benefits from economies of scale. Regardless, demand is limited due to the decline in low-income owner households, and therefore such housing has limited support. The 8 potential units among the moderate priced product (priced between $100,000 and $199,999) is also primarily the result of demand that originates from the need for replacement housing, as well as from units required for a balanced market. The projected decline among households that can afford product at this price point, while less than the low-income segment, limits the demand potential for product priced between $100,000 and $200,000. Unlike the product priced below $100,000, product priced between $100,000 and $199,000 may be financially feasible for some developers, depending upon construction and land costs. There appears to be market potential for up to 48 new units priced at $200,000 and higher. Unlike the lower priced product, high-end product priced at $200,000 and higher will primarily get its support from the demand for additional units required for a balanced market and the significant growth that is projected to occur among higher income households. Additionally, this supply side of the product priced at $200,000 or higher is the smallest, in terms of available supply. As a result, there is an imbalance of higher income households and the number of units available to choose from within the Springfield market. Additional units at this price point would be required to meet the needs of the existing market and to attract higher income households to the Springfield area, including the downtown area.

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It is important to note that to achieve maximum levels in various sale price categories requires the market to offer all price points, locations, and product alternatives. Our estimate of demand for Springfield takes this hypothetical scenario into account. However, note that this scenario is highly unlikely except in overbuilt markets. In most markets, if there is support for new housing at a particular price point or concept, and such product is not offered in a specific area, households may leave the area seeking this housing alternative elsewhere, defer their purchase decision, or seek another housing alternative. Additionally, households considering relocating to Springfield may not move to the city if the housing product offered does not meet their needs in terms of pricing, quality, product design, or location. Currently, Springfield’s for-sale housing stock is dominated by older, pre-1970, product, though some modern and higher priced product is available. While Springfield’s available housing stock can meet much of the current demand, opportunities exist to develop a variety of product types and price points. The addition of such housing will better enable Springfield to attract and retain working class and upper-income, professional households. Overall, there is potential support for a variety of residential development alternatives in Springfield. It is important to understand that the housing demand estimates shown in this report assume no major changes occur in the local economy and that the demographic trends and projections provided in this report materialize. As such, our demand estimates should be considered conservative and serve as a baseline for development potential. With a substantial amount of planned investments and infrastructure projects, Springfield could experience significant job and demographic growth that could far exceed those projected in this report. As such, housing demand estimates could be significantly greater than our current estimates.

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IX. HOUSING DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Housing markets expand when the number of households increases within a certain geographic area. Increases can occur when new households enter the market at a faster rate than existing households are lost and/or when new households form within the market at a faster rate than existing households are lost. These factors were considered in the Housing Gap/Demand Analysis Section of this report. In order for a given market to grow, these resulting new households must find acceptable and available units (either newlycreated or pre-existing). If acceptable units are not available, households will not enter the housing market and it will stagnate or decline. Rehabilitation of occupied units does not expand housing markets, although it may improve them. For newly-created units to be available, land and/or existing buildings (suitable for residential use) must be readily-available, properly-zoned, and feasibly-sized for development. The absence of available residential real estate can preclude housing market growth, unless unrealized zoning densities (units per acre) are achieved on existing properties. For pre-existing units to be acceptable, properties must be sufficiently desirable to attract new occupants. This may or may not involve renovating. Neighborhood improvements and price concessions often result in lower vacancy rates and quicker sales (market growth), without resorting to property modifications. To understand the housing market growth potential for the PSA, its overall vacancy rate was evaluated. In general, a low rental vacancy rate and few for-sale listings indicate increased demand and the need to expand a market by increasing its available unit count. Conversely, a high rental vacancy rate and numerous for-sale listings indicate decreased demand and the need to expand a market by improving its desirability. According to the 2010 Census, the overall share of vacant housing units within the PSA was 16.2%. However, our survey of PSA multifamily rental properties revealed an overall vacancy rate of only 0.7%. Explanations for these divergent values may include: 1) most of the vacant housing units in 2010 were owned, not rented, 2) the rental housing market improved substantially since 2010, and/or 3) vacant housing units were demolished since 2010. Since a field count of vacant residential units was beyond the scope of this study and since 88% of occupied units within the PSA were renter households in 2010 and since there were very few for-sale listings within the PSA, it is reasonable to conclude that the total residential vacancy rate within the PSA is very low (below 5.0%). As earlier mentioned, a low overall vacancy rate suggests a housing market growth strategy of providing additional or newlycreated units.

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Market growth strategies that recommend additional or newly-created housing units should have one or more of the following real estate options available: 1) land without buildings, including surface parking lots (new development), 2) unusable buildings (demolition-redevelopment), 3) reusable non-residential buildings (adaptive-reuse), and 4) vacant reusable residential buildings (rehabilitation). Reusable residential buildings should be unoccupied prior to acquisition and/or renovation, in order for their units to be “newly-created” within the market. In addition to their availability, these real estate offerings should be residentially-zoned (or capable of achieving same) and of a feasible size for profitability. In September 2013, a BNR field analyst traveled to Springfield to search for potential housing development sites in the PSA. To be selected, a property had to capable of generating five or more new residential units. Potential sites were located through an on-the-ground survey, information from the city of Springfield, and real estate listings on the Internet. The investigation resulted in 33 properties being identified; 24 (72.7%) where the land could be used for a new building and nine (27.3%) where an existing building could be reused. Although this search was not exhaustive, it does represent a list of the most obvious real estate opportunities in the PSA. It should be noted that these 33 potential housing properties were selected without knowledge of availability, price, or zoning status. Information on these housing development sites is presented in the following table (note the following before viewing the table): 

Map ID Number - This number is used to locate each property on the map provided after the table.



PSA Quadrant Number - To evaluate the PSA in more detail, it was divided into quadrants using Adams Street (east-west) and Sixth Street (north-south). Quadrant 1 represents the northwest portion, Quadrant 2 the northeast portion, Quadrant 3 the southeast portion, and Quadrant 4 the southwest portion of the PSA.



Property Type - Each property is coded to describe its development condition. “L-NB” means land with no existing build; “EB-D-RL” means an existing building that needs to be demolished so the land can be reused, and “EB-R” means an existing building that can be reused.



New Housing Units - To determine the development potential (number of new units) of each property, sites without buildings or with unusable buildings were divided by 1,000 square feet of land area (43.5 units per acre) and sites with reusable structures were divided by 1,000 square feet of building area (typical area to deliver a two-bedroom unit and associated common spaces).

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POTENTIAL PSA HOUSING DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Map ID Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

PSA Quadrant Number 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 1 2 1 4 4 3 3 4 2 3 3 1 4 4 2 3 4 4 1

Property Type* L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB L-NB EB-D-RL EB-D-RL EB-D-RL EB-D-RL EB-D-RL EB-R EB-R EB-R EB-R EB-R EB-R EB-R EB-R EB-R

Property Location 622 South 12th St. South 12th & East Edwards Sts. (SW) South 12th & East Jackson Sts. (SW) South 12th & East Washington Sts. (SW) North 11th & East Mason Sts. (SE) North 11th & East Carpenter Sts. (NE) South 11th & East Cook Sts. (NE) North 6th & East Reynolds Sts. (W) North 5th & East Carpenter Sts. (NW) North 4th & East Madison Sts. (NE) North 4th & East Carpenter Sts. (NW) Adjoining Lot South of County Market West Cook & South Spring Sts. (NW) West Lawrence & South Spring St. (SW) 318 East Madison St. North 7th & East Miller Sts. (SW) North 6th & East Miller Sts. (NW) West Adams & South Pasfield Sts. (SW) West Capitol Ave. & South Pasfield St. (SW) 621 South 12th St. 427 South 12th St. South 4th & East Monroe Sts. 500 North 12th St. 1127 East Cook St. 521 South 11th St. 401 East Washington St. South 5th & East Jackson Sts. (NE) South 5th & East Capitol Sts. 100 North 9th St. 718 South 7th St. 500 Block East Monroe St. 301 East Monroe St. 300 East Washington St. Totals:

Land Area 41,000 SF 34,000 SF 47,000 SF 96,000 SF 100,000 SF 100,000 SF 75,000 SF 64,000 SF 40,000 SF 156,000 SF 41,000 SF 96,000 SF 162,000 SF 64,000 SF 37,000 SF 72,000 SF 41,000 SF 5,000 SF 55,000 SF 7,000 SF 15,000 SF 25,000 SF 5,000 SF 3,000 SF 31.7 Acres

Building Area Demo Demo Demo Demo Demo 25,000 SF 26,000 SF 35,000 SF 26,000 SF 58,000 SF 80,000 SF 50,000 SF 17,000 SF 2,000 SF 319,000 SF

Source: Bowen National Research Field Investigation (September, 2013) SF = Square Feet * Note: L-NB = Land-No Building / EB-D-RL = Existing Building-Demo-Reuse Land / EB-R = Existing Building-Reuse ** Note: Calculated at 1,000 square feet/unit for existing buildings and 1,000 square feet/unit for land

Noteworthy observations from the preceding table include: 

Of the 33 potential housing properties listed in the above table, nine are in Quadrant 1 (NW area), six in Quadrant 2 (NE area), nine in Quadrant 3 (SE area), and nine in Quadrant 4 (SW area). This represents a relatively even distribution of properties throughout the PSA.

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New Housing Units** 41 34 47 96 100 100 75 64 40 156 41 96 162 64 37 72 41 5 55 7 15 25 5 3 25 26 35 26 58 80 50 17 2 1,700



The 33 properties listed in the table represent nearly 1,381,000 square feet of land (32 acres) and 319,000 square feet of existing structure area. If all 33 potential housing properties were developed simultaneously (assuming new units could be created at a rate of 1,000 square feet for reused buildings and 1,000 square feet for land), the PSA housing market could add over 1,700 new housing units.



Of the 1,700 potential new units that could be generated within the PSA, 503 could be placed on properties located in Quadrant 1 (most), 431 in Quadrant 2, 327 in Quadrant 3 (least), and 439 in Quadrant 4. These numbers represent a relatively even distribution of new units throughout the PSA. Thus, no one Quadrant has a distinct advantage over any of the others in terms of potential housing properties or the ability to generate new units.



PSA Quadrants 1 and 3 have the highest number of potential housing properties with land opportunities (seven each), while Quadrant 4 has the highest number of potential housing properties with existing building opportunities (four).

A map locating the 33 potential housing development opportunity properties follows this page:

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Springfield, IL Housing Development Opportunity Locations

Primary Study Area Land Use Type Land w/o existing buildings Reusable existing buildings - non residential Reusable existing buildings - residential Unusable existing buildings - demo

17 16 6 9

11

23

8

12

10

5

15 Quadrant 1

Quadrant 2

29

26

33

4 18 32 22

31 28

19 27

21

Quadrant 3

3 Quadrant 4

25

2 1

13

7

20 24

30 14

1:15,000

0

0.05 0.1

0.2

0.3 Miles

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, USGS, Intermap, iPC, NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom, 2013

In summary, the presence of residential development opportunities (properties capable of delivering new housing units) within the PSA does not appear to be an obstacle to increasing the number of downtown residents. Our cursory investigation for potential housing sites within the PSA (both land and buildings) identified 33 properties capable of producing 1,700 new dwelling units. However, not all of these properties are available and/or are feasible (availability and feasibility of identified properties were beyond the scope of this study). Even if half of these properties are deemed unusable, there are still sufficient sites remaining throughout the PSA to generate over 800 new units, a number easily surpassing the calculated PSA support in this study. Assuming that there are sufficient housing development opportunities within the PSA to support an increase in downtown resident households, the next critical question is … where within the PSA will new residential units have the greatest chance of success? The answer lies in the desirability of a particular neighborhood or location. From our research in other downtown housing markets, inner-city residents prefer locations that are: 1) close to their work or school, 2) close to entertainment venues (large and small), 3) close to recreational amenities (indoor/outdoor and active/passive), 4) close to retail services (those needed on at least a weekly basis), 5) close to drinking and eating establishments, 6) visually appealing and clean, 7) highly active (near public events and festivals), 8) safe and secure (low rates of crime and homelessness), 9) free from noise and odors, and 10) non-car dependent (user-friendly streetscapes/convenient public transit/readily-available parking). When the desired neighborhood attributes are evaluated with respect to the Springfield PSA, the Quadrants rank as follows (most to least desirable):    

Quadrant 1 (northwest PSA) Quadrant 4 (southwest PSA) Quadrant 2 (northeast PSA) Quadrant 3 (southeast PSA)

Quadrant 1’s most favorable rating is due to its: 1) proximity to three major employment centers (Illinois state offices, Memorial Medical Center, and St. Joseph’s Hospital), 2) proximity to two universities (Benedictine University and Southern Illinois University Medical School), 3) proximity to the only downtown supermarket (and other retail services), 4) inclusion of the Arts and Entertainment District, 5) high “walkability” scores, 6) more residential area, 7) high number of housing development opportunities, 8) fewer areas of blight, and 9) less noise and odors from industrial land uses (particularly after the 3rd Street rail corridor is eliminated). Accordingly, Quadrant 1 should be given consideration as a top priority area to receive newly-created PSA housing units.

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While the three other Quadrants are not considered as favorable for new residential development at this time, each possesses a certain level of appeal that could support some number of additional dwelling units. Ultimately, the success of a new residential development within the PSA will be contingent upon the attributes and characteristics of its specific site location, as well as design considerations. While we consider certain areas more likely to support a successful project, certain projects can be successful, regardless of neighborhood, if they are well-designed and can effectively compete in the market based on that design.

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X. STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS A. INTRODUCTION Associates of Bowen National Research contacted and interviewed nearly three dozen stakeholders within the Springfield community. Considered leaders within their field, they represent a wide range of disciplines, including planning, architecture, development, construction, brokerage, education, healthcare, finance, insurance, hospitality, business services, and associations. Furthermore, many have been involved with downtown Springfield and/or the greater Springfield area for many years. In light of their expertise, stakeholders were asked to provide input on a variety of topics regarding downtown Springfield's housing market and its living environment. Specifically, they shared their perceptions of the current state of the market, along with its strengths, weaknesses, and resident profile. In addition, they addressed the market potential, with subjects such as future housing occupants and their needs, development considerations, and obstacles. To conclude, survey participants were invited to comment on downtown as a place to live, with a focus on the best and worst attributes of downtown and opportunities to maximize its vitality. And throughout the interviews, respondents offered advice on making strides, as well as public and private sector involvement. It should be noted that in an effort to encourage candid responses, stakeholders were assured that their input would remain confidential and their names would not be disclosed. A list of the survey questions can be found in Addendum A.

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B. SUMMARY OF STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS The following is a summary of the general comments of area stakeholders by topic. The Current Downtown Housing Market State of the Market Stakeholders noted that Springfield's downtown housing market consists primarily of one- and two-bedroom rental apartments, with some larger units and some condominiums. Most claimed the existing housing to be of good to excellent quality; however, more than just a few believed there is room for improvement. Some remarked that there is a wide variety of housing, ranging from poorly maintained high-rises, to older but well maintained apartments, to upscale lofts. According to a select few, Lincoln Square is the only livable apartment community in downtown Springfield; the only one to offer amenities (e.g., a pool, nice common areas) and the only one considered to be secure. That said, an overwhelming majority reported all rental units to be in high demand, with nearly full occupancy and strong rates of absorption. While most stakeholders believed the quality of the existing housing stock to be good or better, there was more widespread disagreement with regard to the affordability. Some considered the downtown housing market to be affordable to a variety of income levels, while others noted it to be relatively inexpensive overall, but trending higher in price. In stark contrast, however, far more than just a few regarded it as being affordable only to those earning higher professional salaries; too expensive for students and to those with more moderate incomes. Nearly all were in agreement, though, that there is nothing affordable to those with very low incomes. As to whether downtown's current supply of housing is sufficient, nearly all respondents were in agreement that there is a need for more. Some believed the need was for more upscale housing, while others firmly noted that the need was for moderately priced housing, priced at or below $1,000 per month. Many, however, questioned the depth of the market and expressed concerns of overbuilding. In contrast, a handful of stakeholders believed the current supply to be adequate, given the loss of jobs in downtown Springfield and limited population growth in the greater community.

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Today's Downtown Residents With regard to the types of residents attracted to downtown's existing housing stock, many stakeholders believed there to be a broad spectrum, while an equally large number considered it to cater to just certain demographic groups. The category cited as being the most predominant includes young, working professionals in their 20's and 30's, living in single-person or twoperson households. While there are some medical students and medical staff living downtown, most residents are government workers, legislators, lobbyists, and those employed by some of the larger downtown businesses. That said, there are also a few retirees and empty nesters looking for a maintenance-free lifestyle and access to cultural opportunities. On the other hand, the downtown housing market fails to draw many students, families with children, or those employed in lower paying service sector jobs. Strengths & Limitations of Today's Downtown Housing Market When stakeholders were asked to address the best and worst aspects of today's downtown housing market, many commented on the unique, urban, walkable setting as being a strength. They noted that being in Springfield's cultural core and living amid downtown's many historic sites offer residents an unrivaled setting that cannot be matched in the suburbs. Other strengths include accessibility, particularly to employers, the Medical District, bus lines, restaurants, bars, events, and the farmers' market. Some believed that the variety of housing options downtown bodes well for the market. On the other hand, a large number of respondents considered the suburbs (i.e., Springfield's west side, in particular, which is just a short drive away) to offer a wider range of choices, as well as more amenities, including movie theatres, health clubs, retail, etc. As for other weaknesses, noted concerns relate to a lack of security, parking, amenities, green space, affordability, availability, and handicapped accessibility. Furthermore, some respondents stated that there are not enough housing options for students. With regard to the neighborhood amenities in downtown Springfield, many believed that there too few of them and those that are there shut down too early during the week and remain closed throughout the weekend. Finally, some respondents were of the opinion that the new County Market grocery store near the Medical District is not within walking distance of downtown's housing market.

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A Vision for the Future The Future Downtown Housing Resident Stakeholders overwhelming agreed that the future downtown renter will be young, with most residents ranging in age from the low 20's to mid 30's. They will generally be in single or married households, but without children. A few respondents envisioned a wider variety of age groups, varying from recent college graduates to young and middle-aged professionals to older individuals seeking a simplified, walkable lifestyle. Some believed they will be downtown workers, with jobs at the state government or larger employers, whereas a few hoped there will be more service sector employees (i.e., employed at the museums, hotels, and restaurants). Others anticipated them to be newcomers and out-of-town lobbyists, particularly in light of the new high-speed rail line that will run from St. Louis to Chicago. Incomes will likely range between $25,000 and $100,000 and while some imagined that most will have incomes at or above average, others assumed they will fall in the middle or slightly below. It should be noted that a large number of stakeholders envisioned a future downtown housing market occupied by students and staff from the Medical District, as well as students from University of Illinois Springfield, which has a number of graduate students with state government internships. The hospitals, in particular, bring in hundreds of new resident physicians and students each year and they hire new full-time physicians, nurses, and therapists regularly. Many are in need of housing nearby. New Housing Development Most stakeholders believed that a combination of new construction and adaptive-reuse would be the most appropriate means of expanding the supply of housing downtown. New construction would address the plethora of vacant sites and surface parking lots, while adaptive-reuse would make use of the empty office buildings and preserve their historic features (though, some have large floor plates with limited lighting, making their redevelopment difficult). New construction would be most suitable for large-scale student housing developments. As for the details, an overwhelming majority were of the opinion that midrise, rental apartment buildings would best serve the needs of the future downtown resident. Units should range in size from 700 to 1,500 square feet and should have a combination of one bedroom/one bath, two bedrooms/one bath, and two bedrooms/two baths, as well as a few with three bedrooms for roommate scenarios and empty nesters with visiting family. It was noted that there is a trend toward more square feet per unit; however, smaller units would cater to the more price-conscious resident. Recommended monthly rents vary widely,

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from $700 to $1,000 (to keep it affordable), $900 to $1,200, and $1,200 to $1,400. Some stakeholders believed that amenities should be kept to a minimum in order to maintain affordability for students, service sector workers, and young professionals with lingering student loans, while others considered upscale characteristics with a large number of amenities to be important, particularly when competing with the suburbs. Among the minimalists, they advised offering nothing more than nice quality, clean, functional space with efficient kitchens, ample daylight, and 24-hour maintenance. In contrast, those in favor of a high degree of amenities recommended a fitness center and/or pool, wi-fi, green space, and security (including secure parking). Also, many were in favor of mixed-use developments, with cafes, pharmacies, dry cleaners, and convenience stores on the ground floors and housing above. Housing should offer a "unique" and "cool vibe" with opportunities to socialize, while it should avoid being both a "cookie cutter" and a "cheap cracker box." Location Considerations While many respondents were of the opinion that downtown Springfield covers just a small area and, therefore, housing should be evenly distributed throughout, a significant number believed that certain parts of downtown were more conducive to housing development than others. Some of the more commonly cited locations include (1) the streets surrounding the State Capitol and Old State Capitol buildings and heading north toward the Medical District (i.e., in the vicinity of Carpenter and the new County Market grocery store, which can serve as an anchor and key amenity for new residents), (2) in the heart of downtown (i.e., Adams Street, 5th and 6th Streets), (3) near the historic sites, and (4) on the surface parking lots where there are opportunities for infill development. Some advised building west of 9th Street, while others noted that west of 7th would keep the housing clustered where activity is highest and jobs are most plentiful. Several mentioned that the city is actively attempting to acquire a large site between 4th and 5th, Capitol and Jackson, which would be ideal for student housing or mixed-use with residential, commercial, and parking. A few of the less common suggestions include the blocks bordered by 9th and 11th, Adams and Capitol (i.e., near the proposed transit center), as well as south of Lawrence along 11th Street.

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Potential Obstacles While most of the stakeholders were enthusiastic about the future of downtown housing, their optimism was tempered by the development hurdles that are currently in place. Some of the most commonly cited relate to the financial aspects. Specifically, many respondents believe the cost of downtown development is too high relative to the cost of living (and market rents, in particular), making projects financially infeasible without the use of public incentives. Currently, there are few incentives available; the downtown TIF district is due to expire shortly. Furthermore, lenders are perceived by some respondents to be less community-oriented and more profit-driven than they once were, making them reluctant to support downtown development. Downtown development is considered risky and while the market has proven that demand for downtown housing exists, the depth of the demand is uncertain, particularly in light of the lack of job growth, limited population growth, and insufficient number of amenities. These risks, coupled with challenging economics, leave many investors reluctant to pursue the potential opportunities that exist. Other noted deterrents include the city government's bureaucratic approval process (considered by many to be too restrictive), a lack of available parking and the prohibitive cost of including parking in some of the smaller housing developments, too many vacant buildings with limited natural light (making them difficult to convert to residential), and the absence of widespread community support. Making Strides Toward a Revitalized Downtown Current Strengths & Weaknesses When asked to address the environment of downtown Springfield, particularly as it relates to living downtown, Stakeholders gave a variety of opinions with regard to downtown's best and worst attributes. Among its strengths, downtown is considered clean and attractive, with historic character and a uniqueness not found in the suburbs. It is Springfield's cultural center, offering a walkable environment filled with events, restaurants, bars, entertainment, and nightlife. And while there is no downtown grocery store, there is one nearby in the Medical District. Also important is its proximity to major employers, the medical school, and hospitals within the Medical District. Several respondents stated the downtown area needs to be a place to live, work, and play.

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Some of the noted weaknesses include an overall lack or declining number of jobs (the state government has relocated many of its workers to areas outside of Springfield), safety (homelessness is a concern), amenities (e.g., pharmacy, dry cleaners, movie theater, gym), green space and gathering areas, pedestrian-friendly walkways, and bike-friendly lanes. Furthermore, while there is ample parking, it is too restrictive and largely unavailable to residents. Also mentioned was the early closure of most downtown businesses, the glut of empty office buildings and surface parking lots (sends the message that downtown is deteriorating), and abundance of bars. Enhancing Downtown's Livability Respondents offered their thoughts on overcoming downtown's limitations and creating a more livable and vibrant environment for future residents. Several stakeholders addressed the decline in state government jobs and offered remedies such as luring new employers by lowering the rents on empty office buildings that are unsuitable for adaptive-reuse, as well as strengthening the link between downtown and the Medical District, which is in a growth mode. With respect to the latter, while a combination of resident physicians, medical technicians, and medical students would likely be attracted to the downtown lifestyle, many believed that it would be the medical students, along with students from UIS, that would truly enhance the vibrancy of downtown (as students do in so many college towns). Separately, some suggested that there should be better outreach to the homeless population to ensure that it receives the needed care and services. In regard to beautification, there should be more green space and gathering areas, improved streetscapes, better lighting, and bike lanes. A few advised converting the soon-to-be abandoned 3rd Street rail line into a linear park with bike and walking trails. In an effort to reduce the number of surface parking lots, infill development, coupled with a new parking structure, was recommended. As for the perceived lack of parking, there should be better promotion of Downtown Springfield Parking Inc.'s half-priced parking fees available to those that live downtown and work elsewhere. Finally, to tackle the lack of amenities, there should be an effort to bring in some retail anchors, such as a movie theatre and/or fitness center, and existing businesses should be encouraged to stay open in the evenings and on the weekends. Creating an entertainment district was also proposed, whereby a movie theatre and performance venues could be clustered.

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Roles & Responsibilities Throughout the interviews, stakeholders shared their thoughts on how the public and private sectors can and should be engaged in the expansion of housing in downtown Springfield. First, it should be noted that several respondents believed that the cash-strapped government should not invest further in housing; that it should not be expected to "give away the farm" and instead, should focus on other priorities, such as education. Yet, in contrast, the majority was of the opinion that the government should take on more of a leadership role and it, along with Downtown Springfield Inc., were cited most often as being responsible for driving the initiative. That said, many noted that it should be a collaborative, community-wide effort, which, in addition to the city and DSI, should involve the Chamber (including the Black Chamber of Commerce), Q5, the Convention & Visitors Bureau, downtown property owners, large downtown employers, developers, architects, lenders, the medical community, and local universities. Public/private partnerships were considered by many to be key. Public Sector Responsibilities Most stakeholders agreed that the public sector should assist with the expansion of downtown housing by offering incentives, including TIF (a new, perhaps larger downtown TIF district, should be created), historic tax credits, tax abatements, and infrastructure. Given that its funds are limited, the government should also identify other funding sources to assist developers. Furthermore, the city should be more flexible with building requirements and less restrictive with codes and zoning. Also, it should invest more in beautification, create green spaces, and improve the pedestrian-friendliness of downtown. As for other concerns, it was noted by some that the city should address both the homelessness situation and parking issue. Finally, it should partner with developers to redevelop the former YWCA site (i.e., between 4th & 5th, Capitol & Jackson) and to attract more retail and amenities. Private Sector Responsibilities Suggestions for the private sector varied. Many respondents felt that developers and investors should be willing to take risks and avoid taking the easy way out by building in the suburbs. Others noted that the private sector should collaborate with the public sector and economic development groups to proactively drive the expansion of downtown housing and streamline the development process. And developers and designers should be innovative with older buildings, include parking if possible, incorporate services and amenities in their plans, and invest in strong retailers. Separately, it was recommended that the lending community become more community-driven and offer low-interest, long-term loans to facilitate new development. Several stakeholders advised creating a community development corporation to assist

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with loans. And finally, the Medical District should encourage students and staff to consider downtown as a place to live. Lessons Learned Stakeholders were encouraged to cite examples of communities that have successfully transformed their downtowns. St. Louis was named most often as being a city that effectively used a combination of public incentives to convert a former "war zone" into a vibrant living environment. Furthermore, using its baseball stadium as an anchor, St. Louis successfully stimulated mixed-use development, including housing, in the surrounding area. Separately, Indianapolis' "canal project" and Peoria's "river project" were noted as having concepts that can be replicated with the redevelopment of Springfield's soon-to-be abandoned 3rd Street rail line. And several stakeholders named Charleston, South Carolina, as having a model downtown that is both charming and historic. Furthermore, Charleston's strong leadership was recognized as being vital to the successful redevelopment of the city's King Street. Other cities to take note of include Milwaukee (with its redeveloped warehouses), Asheville (with its artist niche), Pittsburgh (with its creative incentive packages), and Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids, and Quebec City (with their vibrant, pedestrian-friendly downtowns). Finally, Cincinnati was commended for its use of a downtown community development corporation to assist with financing.

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XI. QUALIFICATIONS The Company Bowen National Research employs an expert staff to ensure that each market study is of the utmost quality. Each staff member has hands-on experience evaluating sites and comparable properties, analyzing market characteristics and trends, and providing realistic recommendations and conclusions. The Bowen National Research staff has the expertise to provide the answers for your development. The Staff Patrick Bowen is the President of Bowen National Research. He has prepared and supervised thousands of market feasibility studies for all types of real estate products, including affordable family and senior housing, multifamily market-rate housing and student housing, for 15 years. He has also prepared various studies for submittal as part of HUD 221(d)(3) & (4), HUD 202 developments and applications for housing for Native Americans. He has also conducted studies and provided advice to city, county and state development entities as it relates to residential development, including affordable and market rate housing, for both rental and for-sale housing. Mr. Bowen has worked closely with many state and federal housing agencies to assist them with their market study guidelines. Mr. Bowen has his bachelor’s degree in legal administration (with emphasis on business and law) from the University of West Florida. Benjamin J. Braley, Market Analyst, has conducted market research for over six years in more than 550 markets throughout the United States. He is experienced in preparing feasibility studies for a variety of applications, including those that meet standards required by state agency and federal housing guidelines. Additionally, Mr. Braley has analyzed markets for single-family home developments, commercial office and retail space, student housing properties and senior housing (i.e. nursing homes, assisted living, continuing care retirement facilities, etc.). Mr. Braley is a member of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and graduated from Otterbein College with a bachelor’s degree in Economics.

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Walt Whitmyre is a Market Analyst for Bowen National Research. Two of his most notable projects involved a comprehensive student housing analysis for The Ohio State University, and a 15-city downtown housing assessment for the State of Michigan. Mr. Whitmyre has directed 165 real estate development projects in 15 different states. During his 30 years as a real estate professional, Mr. Whitmyre has been heavily involved in nearly every aspect of the industry. From concept design to construction, he has been responsible for real estate developments totaling $400,000,000 and has acquired valuable insights from the perspectives of both developer and development team member. Mr. Whitmyre's expertise includes development team management, market feasibility studies, site due diligence, design evaluation, project budgeting, and jurisdictional entitlements. Mr. Whitmyre holds a bachelor's degree in Environmental Design/Architecture from the University of Colorado. Jack Wiseman, Market Analyst, with Bowen National Research, has conducted extensive market research in over 200 markets throughout the United States. He provides thorough evaluation of site attributes, area competitors, market trends, economic characteristics and a wide range of issues impacting the viability of real estate development. He has evaluated market conditions for a variety of real estate alternatives, including affordable and market-rate apartments, retail and office establishments, educational facilities, marinas and a variety of senior residential alternatives. Mr. Wiseman has a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Miami University. Craig Rupert, Market Analyst with Bowen National Research, has conducted market research in both urban and rural markets throughout the United States. He provides thorough evaluation of site attributes, area competitors, market trends and economic characteristics. Specifically, he has evaluated market conditions for a variety of real estate alternatives, including affordable and market-rate apartments, Indian housing, senior rental housing facilities and student housing facilities. Mr. Rupert has a Bachelor of Science degree in Hospitality Management from Youngstown State University. Heather Moore, Market Analyst, has been with Bowen National Research since the fall of 2010. She has evaluated the rental market in cities throughout the United States and is able to provide detailed site-specific analysis. Ms. Moore has a Bachelors of Arts in Marketing from Urbana University. Greg Gray, Market Analyst, has more than twelve years of experience conducting site-specific analysis in markets throughout the country. He is especially trained in the evaluation of condominium and senior living developments. Mr. Gray has the ability to provide detailed site-specific analysis as well as evaluate market and economic trends and characteristics.

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Christine Atkins, Market Analyst, has more than three years of experience in the property management industry and has managed a variety of rental housing types. With experience in conducting site-specific analysis, she has the ability to analyze market and economic trends and conditions. Ms. Atkins holds a Bachelor of Arts in Communication from the University of Cincinnati. Lisa Wood, Market Analyst, has conducted site-specific analyses in both rural and urban markets throughout the country. She is also experienced in the day-today operation and financing of Low-Income Housing Tax Credit and subsidized properties, which gives her a unique understanding of the impact of housing development on current market conditions. Chuck Ewing, Market Analyst, has been conducting site-specific analysis throughout the United States since 2009. He has experience in the evaluation of a variety of real estate developments that include affordable and market-rate apartments, senior living facilities, student housing, supportive and disabled veteran housing, farm worker housing and regional rental supply analysis. Mr. Ewing has a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from The Ohio State University. Amy Tyrrell is a Project Director for Bowen National Research and is based out of Washington, DC. She has 16 years experience in the real estate and construction industries, with 11 years specializing in the research field. She has researched, analyzed, and prepared reports on a variety of trends, industries, and property types, including industrial, office, medical office, multifamily apartments and condominiums, and senior housing. Prior to her focus on research, Ms. Tyrrell performed financial analysis for retail developments throughout the United States. She holds a Masters in Business Administration with concentrations in real estate and marketing from the University of Cincinnati and a Bachelor of Arts in economics with a minor in mathematics from Smith College. Stephanie Viren is the Research Director at Bowen National Research. Ms. Viren focuses on collecting detailed data concerning housing conditions in various markets throughout the United States. Ms. Viren has extensive interviewing skills and experience and also possesses the expertise necessary to conduct surveys of diverse pools of respondents regarding population and housing trends, housing marketability, economic development and other socioeconomic issues relative to the housing industry. Ms. Viren's professional specialty is condominium and senior housing research. Ms. Viren earned a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration from Heidelberg College.

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Desireé Johnson is the Field Support Coordinator at Bowen National Research. Ms. Johnson is involved in the day-to-day management of the field support department, as well as preparing jobs for field and phone analysis. She has been involved in extensive market research in a variety of project types for more than five years. Ms. Johnson has the ability to research, find, analyze and manipulate data in a multitude of ways. Ms. Johnson has an Associate of Applied Science in Office Administration from Columbus State Community College. June Davis, Office Manager of Bowen National Research, has 24 years experience in market feasibility research. Ms. Davis has overseen production on over 15,000 market studies for projects throughout the United States.

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Addendum A – Stakeholder Interview Instrument Bowen National Research has been retained by The Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce and The Quantum Growth Partnership to study Springfield’s downtown housing market potential. As part of this study, we are conducting interviews with local people who are knowledgeable on the subject. Your name has come to our attention as someone who can provide insight into Springfield’s downtown housing. To encourage a candid discussion, individual responses will remain confidential; only aggregate results will be presented in our report. Respondent Name and Title: Organization Name: Contact Info: Interview Date(s):

BNR Interviewer:

I. Background First, we need a general overview of yourself and your organization: 1. What are your primary job responsibilities? How long have you been with your current organization? How long have you been involved with downtown Springfield?

2. What is the primary purpose of your organization? What geographic area does it serve?

II. Springfield’s Current Downtown Housing The following questions address Springfield’s current downtown housing: 1. How would you describe the overall quality of existing downtown housing?

2. How would you characterize the overall performance of existing downtown housing?

3. What housing types are currently available in the downtown area?

4. Is current downtown housing affordable to all income levels or just certain ones?

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5. What are the best attributes of existing downtown housing?

6. What are the worst attributes of existing downtown housing?

7. Are resident needs being met by existing downtown housing?

8. Is there a sufficient amount of existing downtown housing?

9. Does current downtown housing attract a broad spectrum of people or just certain types?

10. Has recent foreclosure activity adversely impacted existing downtown housing?

11. Do you have any other comments regarding Springfield’s existing downtown housing that we haven’t discussed?

III. Springfield’s Future Downtown Housing The following questions address Springfield’s future downtown housing: 1. What population segments have the greatest need or desire for downtown housing (age groups, income levels, occupations such as artists, lobbyists, students, corporate executives, medical professionals, or state workers)?

2. What types of housing should be developed to best serve Springfield’s future downtown residents (single-family homes vs. condos/multifamily units, number of bedrooms/baths, amenities, rentals vs. for-sale, lowrise vs. highrise, etc.)?

3. What are the best areas or locations within downtown Springfield for future housing?

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4. Should future downtown housing focus on new construction, rehabilitation, adaptive-reuse, or some combination of the three?

5. What should the public sector do to encourage Springfield’s future downtown housing?

6. What should the private sector do to encourage Springfield’s future downtown housing?

7. Is there sufficient demand today to support additional downtown housing?

8. Is the City Government actively engaged in expanding downtown housing/living options?

9. What attributes must be offered in downtown housing for it to be successful in Springfield?

10. What difficulties/obstacles preclude the development of downtown housing in Springfield?

11. What have other communities done to promote and develop more downtown housing?

12. Do you have any other comments regarding Springfield’s future downtown housing that we haven’t discussed?

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IV. Springfield’s Downtown Living Environment The following questions address the strengths and weaknesses of Springfield’s downtown environment, not its housing: 1. What are the best aspects of downtown Springfield that should be used to encourage downtown living? How can these be effectively promoted?

2. What are the worst aspects of downtown Springfield that need be resolved for downtown living to succeed? How can these be effectively overcome?

3. Do you see a scenario where downtown Springfield could regain its vitality through enhanced downtown living? (Yes) Tell me your vision and timeline. (No) Why not?

4. Do you currently live in downtown Springfield? (No) Why not? (Yes) Why did you move there and why do you remain?

5. What groups or entities should be responsible for revitalizing downtown Springfield?

6. What have other communities done to improve their downtown living environment?

7. On a scale of 0 to 5, with 0 being “terrible” and 5 being “wonderful”, how would you rate current downtown Springfield as a place to live?

8. Do you have any other comments regarding Springfield’s downtown environment that we haven’t discussed?

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Do you have any final comments regarding downtown living in Springfield? Are there other knowledgeable people who we should contact about Springfield’s downtown housing or living? Name (s):

Contact Info:

Name (s):

Contact Info:

Name (s):

Contact Info:

We greatly appreciate your time discussing these important housing issues facing downtown Springfield. If you think of any other information you would like to share after we hang-up, please feel free to call me back at or e-mail me at . Thanks again for your valuable insight.

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ADDENDUM B: TIF DISTRICTS MAPS

B-1

Carpenter Street

Mason Street

Madison Street

Jefferson St.

Washington St.

T I F Adams Street

Monroe Street

STATE

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

CAPITOL

COMPLEX Edwards Street

Cook Street

Lawrence St.

ST. JOHN'S HOSPITAL

T I F UNION STATION

NEW A. LINCOLN MUSEUM

NEW A. LINCOLN LIBRARY

NATIONAL OLD STATE

REGISTER

CONVENTION CENTER

HISTORIC CAPITOL

D ISTRICT HI LT ON HOTEL

MUNICIPAL CENTER WEST EAST

T I F

GOVERNORS MANSION

LINCOLN'S HOME

11th Street

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

10th Street

9th Street

8th Street

7th Street

6th Street

5th Street

4th Street

3rd Street

2nd Street

1st Street

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ T I F _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Carpenter Street

Reynolds Street

Mason Street

Madison Street

Jefferson St.

Washington St.

Adams

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Street

Monroe Street

Capitol St.

Jackson Street

Edwards Street

Cook Street

Lawrence St.

CENTRAL AREA

KEY: TIF DISTRICT:

Springfield, IL.

FEDERAL HISTORIC DISTRICT: RAILROAD TRACKS:

l l l

Updated 01-25-07

Tax Increment and Federal Historic Districts Start Date: December 29, 1981 End Date: December 27, 2004 Extended till: December 31, 2016

N

11th Street

Yale Blvd.

10th Street

9th Street

8th Street

7th Street

6th Street

5th Street

4th Street

Bryn Mawr Blvd.

BUNN

Bryn Mawr Blvd.

GOLF

COURSE Stanford Avenue

Stanford Avenue

BL 55 Culver Ave. Linton Ave. Linton Ave.

Apple

Orchard

P r o f e s s i o n a l

T I F Knox Ave. Road Bruce St.

B a k e r

T I F

D r

D r

N

Fiat Ave. Engineering Ave.

Cottonwood St.

T I F

DRIVE

4th Street

STEVENSON

FIAT ALLIS COMPLEX KEY: TIF DISTRICT:

(Park South)

Start Date:

November 7, 1989

Springfield, IL.

End Date:

November 7, 2012

Tax Increment Finance District

9th Street

St.

10th Street

6th Street

Converse

5th Street

3rd Street

2nd Street

8th Street

7th Street Ave.

4th Street

Eastman

McClernad Ave.

North Grand Ave. East N NC T I F

Bergen Rafter

Reservoir

ENOS PARK TIF

St.

St. Division

ENOS PARK TIF

N Gehrmann Park

St.

Enos Park Enterprise Enterprise

St.

St.

Phillips Dodge Dodge

Ave.

St.

St.

Union

Enos

Ave.

Miller

Ave.

St.

ENOS PARK Springfield, IL. KEY: TIF DISTRICT:

Tax Increment Finance District

Start Date: End Date:

10th Street

9th Street

8th Street

7th Street

6th Street

5th Street

4th Street

3rd Street

2nd Street

Carpenter St.

December 16, 1997 December 15, 2020

Fifteenth St.

Fourtheenth St.

Thirteenth St.

Thelfth St.

Eleventh St. Reynolds St.

Reynolds St.

T I F

T I F

Park Ln.

Mason St.

KEY: TIF DISTRICT:

Mason St.

W a y

N Madison St.

F e d e r a l

T I F

Madison St.

S.H.A.

Start Date:

Springfield, IL

End Date:

Tax Increment Finance District

February 16, 1999 February 17, 2022

NORTHEAST TIF DISTRICT

Springfield, IL

4 14 13 0 200 006

1 14 13 0 101 034

5 3

14 13 0 200 007

6

2 14 13 0 101 033

14 13 0 200 054

14 13 0 200 055

7

D 14 13 0 200 052

8

I 14 13 0 200 053

9

R

11

10

14 13 0 401 038

14 13 0 326 029

K 1 4

12

1 3

14 13 0 401 024

S

0 4 0 1 0 4 0

14 13 0 401 037

15

13

14

14 13 0 401 035

E

14 13 0 401 034

N Atlanta St.

16 14 13 0 401 036

18

P

A

14 13 0 401 031

17 14 13 0 401 022

R

19 14 13 0 401 032

20 14 13 0 401 033

K

W

S

21 T O C

14 13 0 401 025

22 14 13 0 401 026

K Y A R

KEY D

TIF BOUNDARY R O

ENTERPRISE ZONE A D

Start Date:

December 2, 2003

End Date:

December 31, 2026 SANGAMON

AVENUE

HALL'S HARLEY DAVIDSON

A

Y

3

ROAD

N

14-19-0-451-001

2

A Y

14-19-0-451-008

W

4

PA R K

14-19-0-379-001

CH

5

WIN

14-19-0-451-009

6 14-19-0-451-007

1

V ET ER A

N S

14-19-0-379-004

7 14-19-0-451-010

8 14-30-0-201-001

Jefferson Crossing TIF Springfield, Illinois Start Date: 9/7/07 Finish Date: 9/7/2030

TIF Boundaries: Matrix Number: Tax ID Number:

1 14-30-0-201-001

Springfield Enterprise Zone 2012 Tax Year

Ü 0

2

4

Miles

Illinois Department Of Revenue Property Tax Division

DISCLAIMER In preparing these maps, constraints of scale, data, time, and personnel required the generalization and extrapolation of boundaries which have not been field-checked. The base maps used by the Department in this process were obtained from the University of Illinois (ILLIMAP), and the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the Bureau of the Census (TIGER). These maps may not be used to determine any boundary or the location of monuments, railroads, roads, or streets, with any precision, because the boundaries and locations on these maps are ONLY GENERALIZED REPRESENTATIONS OF APPROXIMATE LOCATIONS AND BOUNDARIES. The Illinois Department of Revenue and the State of Illinois hereby give notice to all users that these maps and the data included hereon, lack the accuracy required for site-specific uses. Since all boundaries and all data are based on information derived from sources outside the Illinois Department of Revenue, the Illinois Department of Revenue and the State of Illinois make no representation, guarantee or warranty, either express or implied, regarding the accuracy of these maps or the data furnished thereon, including, but not limited to, the condition of this product, this product's merchantability, or this product's fitness for any particular purpose or use. Specific questions regarding boundary locations should be directed to the clerk of the county in which the property exists.

ADDENDUM C: SOURCES Bowen National Research uses various sources to gather and confirm data used in each analysis. These sources include the following:                  

2000 and 2010 U.S. Census American Community Survey ESRI Demographics InfoGroup Ribbon Demographics HISTA Data U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Management for each property included in the survey Local planning and building officials Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce Springfield Housing Authority U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Urban Decision Group (UDG) 2009 FBI Uniform Crime Reports SOCDS Building Permits Database Realtor.com Realtytrac.com Multiple Listing Service (MLS)- Capital Area Association of REALTORS Various Local Stakeholders

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ADDENDUM D: GLOSSARY Various key terms associated with issues and topics evaluated in this report are used throughout this document. The following provides a summary of the definitions for these key terms. It is important to note that the definitions cited below include the source of the definition, when applicable. Those definitions that were not cited originated from the National Council of Affordable Housing Market Analysts (NCAHMA). Area Median Household Income (AMHI) is the median income for families in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, used to calculate income limits for eligibility in a variety of housing programs. HUD estimates the median family income for an area in the current year and adjusts that amount for different family sizes so that family incomes may be expressed as a percentage of the area median income. For example, a family's income may equal 80 percent of the area median income, a common maximum income level for participation in HUD programs. (Bowen National Research, Various Sources) Available rental housing is any rental product that is currently available for rent. This includes any units identified through Bowen National Research survey of over 100 affordable rental properties identified in the study areas, published listings of available rentals, and rentals disclosed by local realtors or management companies. Basic Rent is the minimum monthly rent that tenants who do not have rental assistance pay to lease units developed through the USDA-RD Section 515 Program, the HUD Section 236 Program and the HUD Section 223 (d) (3) Below Market Interest Rate Program. The Basic Rent is calculated as the amount of rent required to operate the property, maintain debt service on a subsidized mortgage with a belowmarket interest rate, and provide a return on equity to the developer in accordance with the regulatory documents governing the property. Contract Rent is (1) the actual monthly rent payable by the tenant, including any rent subsidy paid on behalf of the tenant, to the owner, inclusive of all terms of the lease (HUD & RD) or (2) the monthly rent agreed to between a tenant and a landlord (Census). Cost overburdened households are those renter households that pay more than 30% or 35% (depending upon source) of their annual household income towards rent. Typically, such households will choose a comparable property (including new affordable housing product) if it is less of a rent burden. Elderly or Senior Housing is housing where (1) all the units in the property are restricted for occupancy by persons 62 years of age or older or (2) at least 80% of the units in each building are restricted for occupancy by households where at least one household member is 55 years of age or older and the housing is designed with amenities and facilities designed to meet the needs of senior citizens.

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Extremely low-income is a person or household with income below 30% of Area Median Income adjusted for household size. Fair Market Rent (FMR) are the estimates established by HUD of the gross rents (contract rent plus tenant paid utilities) needed to obtain modest rental units in acceptable condition in a specific county or metropolitan statistical area. HUD generally sets FMR so that 40% of the rental units have rents below the FMR. In rental markets with a shortage of lower priced rental units HUD may approve the use of Fair Market Rents that are as high as the 50th percentile of rents. Garden apartments are apartments in low-rise buildings (typically two to four stories) that feature low density, ample open-space around buildings, and on-site parking. Gross Rent is the monthly housing cost to a tenant which equals the Contract Rent provided for in the lease plus the estimated cost of all tenant paid utilities. Household is one or more people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence. Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8 Program) is a Federal rent subsidy program under Section 8 of the U.S. Housing Act, which issues rent vouchers to eligible households to use in the housing of their choice. The voucher payment subsidizes the difference between the Gross Rent and the tenant’s contribution of 30% of adjusted gross income, (or 10% of gross income, whichever is greater). In cases where 30% of the tenant’s income is less than the utility allowance, the tenant will receive an assistance payment. In other cases, the tenant is responsible for paying his share of the rent each month. Housing unit is a house, apartment, mobile home, or group of rooms used as a separate living quarters by a single household. HUD Section 8 Program is a Federal program that provides project based rental assistance. Under the program HUD contracts directly with the owner for the payment of the difference between the Contract Rent and a specified percentage of tenants’ adjusted income. HUD Section 202 Program is a Federal program, which provides direct capital assistance (i.e. grant) and operating or rental assistance to finance housing designed for occupancy by elderly households who have income not exceeding 50% of the Area Median Income. The program is limited to housing owned by 501(c)(3) nonprofit organizations or by limited partnerships where the sole general partner is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Units receive HUD project based rental assistance that enables tenants to occupy units at rents based on 30% of tenant income.

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HUD Section 236 Program is a Federal program which provides interest reduction payments for loans which finance housing targeted to households with income not exceeding 80% of Area Median Income who pay rent equal to the greater of Basic Rent or 30% of their adjusted income. All rents are capped at a HUD approved market rent. HUD Section 811 Program is a Federal program, which provides direct capital assistance and operating or rental assistance to finance housing designed for occupancy by persons with disabilities who have income not exceeding 50% of Area Median Income. The program is limited to housing owned by 501(c)(3) nonprofit organizations or by limited partnerships where the sole general partner is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Income Limits are the Maximum Household Income by county or Metropolitan Statistical Area, adjusted for household size and expressed as a percentage of the Area Median Income for the purpose of establishing an upper limit for eligibility for a specific housing program. Income Limits for federal, state and local rental housing programs typically are established at 30%, 50%, 60% or 80% of AMI. Low-income Household is a person or household with gross household income less than 40% of Area Median Income adjusted for household size (Bowen National Reseach). Low-income Housing Tax Credit is a program to generate equity for investment in affordable rental housing authorized pursuant to Section 42 of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended. The program requires that a certain percentage of units built be restricted for occupancy to households earning 60% or less of Area Median Income, and that the rents on these units be restricted accordingly. Market vacancy rate (physical) is the average number of apartment units in any market which are unoccupied divided by the total number of apartment units in the same market, excluding units in properties which are in the lease-up stage. Bowen National Research considers only these vacant units in its rental housing survey. Mixed income property is an apartment property containing (1) both income restricted and unrestricted units or (2) units restricted at two or more income limits (i.e. low-income tax credit property with income limits of 30%, 50% and 60%). Moderate Income is a person or household with gross household income between 40% and 60% of Area Median Income adjusted for household size. Multifamily are structures that contain more than two housing units.

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New owner-occupied household growth within a market is a primary demand component for demand for new for-sale housing. For the purposes of this analysis, we have evaluated growth between 2012 and 2017. The 2010 households by income level are based on ESRI estimates applied to 2010 Census estimates of total households for each study area. The 2017 estimates are based on growth projections by income level by ESRI. The difference between the two household estimates represents the new owner-occupied households that are projected to be added to a study area between 2012 and 2017. These estimates of growth are provided by each income level and corresponding price point that can be afforded. Overcrowded housing is often considered housing units with 1.01 or more persons per room. These units are often occupied by multi-generational families or large families that are in need of more appropriately-sized and affordable housing units. For the purposes of this analysis, we have used the share of overcrowded housing from the American Community Survey. Pipeline housing is housing that is currently under construction or is planned or proposed for development. We identified pipeline housing during our telephone interviews with local and county planning departments and through a review of published listings from housing finance entities such as IHFA, HUD and USDA. Population trends are changes in population levels for a particular area over a specific period of time which is a function of the level of births, deaths, and net migration. Potential support is the equivalent to the housing gap referenced in this report. The housing gap is the total demand from eligible households that live in certain housing conditions (described in Section VIII of this report) less the available or planned housing stock that was inventoried within each study area. Project-based rent assistance is rental assistance from any source that is allocated to the property or a specific number of units in the property and is available to each income eligible tenant of the property or an assisted unit. Public Housing or Low-income Conventional Public Housing is a HUD program administered by local (or regional) Housing Authorities which serves Low- and VeryLow-Income households with rent based on the same formula used for HUD Section 8 assistance. Rent burden is gross rent divided by adjusted monthly household income. Rent burdened households are households with rent burden above the level determined by the lender, investor, or public program to be an acceptable rent-toincome ratio.

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Replacement of functionally obsolete housing is a demand consideration in most established markets. Given the limited development of new housing units in the study area, homebuyers are often limited to choosing from the established housing stock, much of which is considered old and/or often in disrepair and/or functionally obsolete. There are a variety of ways to measure functionally obsolete housing and to determine the number of units that should be replaced. For the purposes of this analysis, we have applied the highest share of any of the following three metrics: cost burdened households, units lacking complete plumbing facilities, and overcrowded units. This resulting housing replacement ratio is then applied to the existing (2012) owner-occupied housing stock to estimate the number of for-sale units that should be replaced in the study areas. Restricted rent is the rent charged under the restrictions of a specific housing program or subsidy. Single-Family Housing is a dwelling unit, either attached or detached, designed for use by one household and with direct access to a street. It does not share heating facilities or other essential building facilities with any other dwelling. Special needs population is a specific market niche that is typically not catered to in a conventional apartment property. Examples of special needs populations include: substance abusers, visually impaired person or persons with mobility limitations. Subsidized Housing is housing that operates with a government subsidy often requiring tenants to pay up to 30% of their adjusted gross income toward rent and often limiting eligibility to households with incomes of up to 50% or 80% of the Area Median Household Income. (Bowen National Research) Subsidy is monthly income received by a tenant or by an owner on behalf of a tenant to pay the difference between the apartment’s contract rent and the amount paid by the tenant toward rent. Substandard housing is typically considered product that lacks complete indoor plumbing facilities. Such housing is often considered to be of such poor quality and in disrepair that is should be replaced. For the purposes of this analysis, we have used the share of households living in substandard housing from the American Community Survey. Substandard conditions are housing conditions that are conventionally considered unacceptable which may be defined in terms of lacking plumbing facilities, one or more major systems not functioning properly, or overcrowded conditions. Tenant is one who rents real property from another.

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Tenant paid utilities are the cost of utilities (not including cable, telephone, or internet) necessary for the habitation of a dwelling unit, which are paid by the tenant. Tenure is the distinction between owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units. Townhouse (or Row House) is a single-family attached residence separated from another by party walls, usually on a narrow lot offering small front and back-yards; also called a row house. Vacancy Rate – Economic Vacancy Rate (physical) is the maximum potential revenue less actual rent revenue divided by maximum potential rent revenue. The number of total habitable units that are vacant divided by the total number of units in the property.

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