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Main Stage, November 3, 2011 A Presenta*on from the Fes*val of NewMR Main Stage – November 3, 2011
HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy
HERD
Less is more
Source: Clark Little
Mark Earls AKA @herdmeister
Festival of New MR November 2011
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
q. are your markets shaped by independent or social choice?
...by what goes on between their ears or between them?
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"
...it s self-evident that
behaviour is shaped
by what goes on
between our ears
Phil Barden, debate in Contagious
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"
social learning
a map built on data patterns
awfully nice chaps
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
the missing piece of the jigsaw
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
less = more
7
market-level patterns reveal what lies beneath (not vice-versa)
we start
here
traditional research insight here
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
is your market shaped by...
...Independent Choice?
I discover and buy a product independently of my peers. Its superiority to other options and what I m already using is immediately clear.
or
...Copying others?
I discover and buy a product through my peers. The product may not be clearly superior. Its social value may be greater.
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
9
compare and contrast
long-tail distribution
short-tail distribution
Very few items account for
most of the market volume
Large number of items have decent share of market volume
Conversely, few
have a very low share
Independent
Many items in tail
with small share
Copying
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
10
a very simple way to plot markets
Independent
short-tail distribution
short-tail distribution
long-tail distribution
Copying
Popular music downloads
rapid turnover of popularity
Charitable giving
Car Insurance
Deodorants
Spirits
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
11
a very simple way to plot markets
Independent
short-tail distribution
short-tail distribution
rapid turnover of popularity
Deodorants
long-tail distribution
Copying
Popular music
downloads
Charitable giving
Car Insurance
Spirits
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
12
Few choices
Copying
Experts
Considered
choice
Independent
Copying
Copying
Peers
Guesswork
Many choices
Adapted from Bentley Earls O Brien I ll have what she s having MIT Press 2011
13
Few choices
Considered
choice
deodorants
charitable giving
Copying
Independent
popular music
downloads
auto Insurance
Many choices
31 14
Few choices
plotting multiple
markets/regions
Copying
Independent
Many choices
31 15
Few choices
Copying
Experts
Considered
choice
what KIND of thing
are you dealing with?
Independent
Copying
Copying
Peers
Guesswork
Many choices
31 16
. . . In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection
that the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and
the map of the Empire, the entirety of a Province.
In time, those Unconscionable Maps no longer satisfied, and the
Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that
of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it.
The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of
Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast Map was
Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it
up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West,
still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, inhabited by Animals
and Beggars; in all the Land there is no other Relic of the Disciplines of
Geography
Source: Pedro Meyer
On Exactitude in Science [JL Borges]
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
17
Few choices
Yes*
No
where is traditional
research
appropriate?
Independent
Maybe
Copying
No
Many choices
31 18 18
Source: Clark Little
less really is more
§
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
31 20
Q&A
Mark Earls
HERD Consultancy
Ray Poynter Vision Critical
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
Main Stage, November 3, 2011 A Presenta*on from the Fes*val of NewMR Main Stage – November 3, 2011
HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy