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Main  Stage,  November  3,  2011   A  Presenta*on  from  the  Fes*val  of  NewMR  Main  Stage  –   November  3,  2011  

HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy

HERD

Less is more



Source: Clark Little



Mark Earls AKA @herdmeister

Festival of New MR November 2011

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK

Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

q. are your markets shaped by independent or social choice?

...by what goes on between their ears or between them?

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK


Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"

...it s self-evident that

behaviour is shaped

by what goes on

between our ears

Phil Barden, debate in Contagious

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
 Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"

social learning

a map built on data patterns

awfully nice chaps

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

the missing piece of the jigsaw

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

less = more

7

market-level patterns reveal what lies beneath (not vice-versa)

we start

here

traditional research insight here

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

is your market shaped by...

...Independent Choice?

I discover and buy a product independently of my peers. Its superiority to other options and what I m already using is immediately clear.

or

...Copying others?

I discover and buy a product through my peers. The product may not be clearly superior. Its social value may be greater.

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

9

compare and contrast

long-tail distribution

short-tail distribution

Very few items account for

most of the market volume

Large number of items have decent share of market volume

Conversely, few

have a very low share



Independent

Many items in tail

with small share

Copying

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

10

a very simple way to plot markets

Independent

short-tail distribution

short-tail distribution

long-tail distribution

Copying

Popular music downloads

rapid turnover of popularity

Charitable giving

Car Insurance

Deodorants

Spirits

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

11

a very simple way to plot markets

Independent

short-tail distribution

short-tail distribution

rapid turnover of popularity

Deodorants

long-tail distribution

Copying

Popular music

downloads

Charitable giving

Car Insurance

Spirits

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

12

Few choices

Copying

Experts

Considered

choice

Independent

Copying

Copying

Peers

Guesswork

Many choices

Adapted from Bentley Earls O Brien I ll have what she s having MIT Press 2011

13

Few choices

Considered

choice

deodorants

charitable giving

Copying

Independent

popular music

downloads

auto Insurance

Many choices

31 14

Few choices

plotting multiple

markets/regions

Copying

Independent

Many choices

31 15

Few choices

Copying

Experts

Considered

choice

what KIND of thing

are you dealing with?

Independent

Copying

Copying

Peers

Guesswork

Many choices

31 16

. . . In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection

that the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and

the map of the Empire, the entirety of a Province.



In time, those Unconscionable Maps no longer satisfied, and the

Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that

of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it.



The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of

Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast Map was

Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it

up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West,

still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, inhabited by Animals

and Beggars; in all the Land there is no other Relic of the Disciplines of

Geography



Source: Pedro Meyer

On Exactitude in Science [JL Borges]



Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

17

Few choices

Yes*

No

where is traditional

research

appropriate?

Independent

Maybe

Copying

No

Many choices

31 18 18

Source: Clark Little

less really is more

§

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

31 20

Q&A

Mark Earls

HERD Consultancy

Ray Poynter Vision Critical

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

Main  Stage,  November  3,  2011   A  Presenta*on  from  the  Fes*val  of  NewMR  Main  Stage  –   November  3,  2011  

HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy