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Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

Árni Snorrason Hydrological Service, National Energy Authority, Iceland The Arctic Energy Summit Anchorage, Alaska 15-18 October 2007

Outline • • • • •

Nordic energy sector Motivation Climate and Energy project 2003-2006 Results New project: Climate and Energy Systems 20072010 • Arctic-HYDRA: Pan-Arctic Extension

Nordel 2006 statistics Nordel Σ(renewable energy) = 54% in 2006

(was 59% in 2005 and 57% in 2004)

Nordel is the organisation of the Nordic Transmission System Operators

IPCC skýrsla 2001:

Sunnanverður Langjökull, ljósmynd: Oddur Sigurðsson, 2003

Glacial changes in Iceland

Glacial changes in Iceland

Inflow to the Swedish reservoirs 1950 - 2002 TWh/år 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02

Snow melt floods •

• •

Late snow melt combined with heavy rain can result in large floods in East Norway. Vesleofsen in June 1995 caused damages for 1.8 Billion NOK. Milder winters may result in fewer large floods in the large rivers, as a result of milder winters with multiple melting events during the winter - increasing winter precipitation may, however lead to increasing snow storage.

Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001

Winter flood in Ölfusá, Iceland

Photo by Davíð Guðnason

Photos by Eberg Elefsen

Rain storms and flash floods

Source: Landeshydrologie und -geologie, Bern

Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001

Rain storms and flash floods

Source: Landeshydrologie und -geologie, Bern Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001

Dam safety

Foto: C-O Brandesten, Vattenfall

Climate & Energy project 2003-06 • Objectives: Simulate consequences of climate changes for the period 2071-2100 for the renewable energy sources and for the Nord Pool electricity system as of 2010 configuration – with reference to the climate 1961-1990 – does not give a forecast for how the system develops into the future

Climate & Energy project • IPCC report - global climate models GCM • Regional climate models by Rossby/SMHI • Assessment of climate change impact for hydro / wind / bio / solar • Energy system analysis • 9 working groups for each of the RE technologies + climate scenarios, statistical, energy systems and information management • 80+ scientists from the Nordic and Baltic countries

The structure of the CE project

Climate scenarios • As the future is inherently uncertain we use scenarios to assess it • A scenario is an internally consistent image of the future - not a prediction • We use two global climate models: • ECHAM4/OPYC3 from Max Planck Institute • HadAM3H from Hadley centre,UK – and 2 emission scenarios A2 & B2

Scenarios for Iceland:

CE: Rummukainen, Eurenew 2006 1961-90 to 2071-2100, HIRHAM-H-A2

Warming of about 2,5°C/Century Increase in precipitation about 5%/Century

Decrease in volume of the seven glaciers in the study

Increase in runoff from the seven glaciers under study

The Nordic-Baltic Region

Calculated annual mean changes from 1961-90 to 2071-2100 based on 2 SRES, 2 GCM and 1 RCM.

Annual runoff change (mm)

Annual runoff change (mm)

Hadley/A2

Hadley/B2

Annual runoff change (mm)

Annual runoff change (mm)

Echam/A2

Echam/B2

Winter runoff change (mm)

Spring runoff change (mm)

Hadley/B2

Hadley/B2

Summer runoff change (mm)

Autumn runoff change (mm)

Hadley/B2

Hadley/B2

National hydrograph for Finland 3

Daily mean discharge from the land surface of Finland (m /s) 14000

12000

10000

3

m /s

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 1

27

53

79

105

131

157

183

209

235

261

287

day of year control

Echam/A2

Echam/B2

Hadley/A2

Hadley/B2

313

339

365

Will the runoff capacities of the dams be adequate in 2070-2100? Smallest floods

Largest floods

Design values are adequate in the future Design values are adequate in the future, but need to be monitored The design values might be inadequate in the future

Wind energy in the Nordic countries [MW]

World Market Update 2007 BTM Consult

Inst. 2006

end 2006

Finland

4

89

Norway

53

328

Sweden

62

571

Denmark

14

3101

Horns Rev offshore wind farm 80 x 2 MW , 2002

Wind energy ECHAM4

legend

Changes in wind energy density [W/m2] in 2071 to 2100 relative to 1961-1990

HadAM3H

Average ice cover in the Baltic Sea More than 200 days 150-200 days 100-150 days 50-100 days 25-50 days Less than 25 days

1961-1990

HadAM3H 2071-2100

Average length of icing period in days for the Baltic Sea, The average length of icing period for 30 years is calculated separately for each grid point.

Bio energy - results • The potential for peat production increases significantly by 9-16% • The productivity of forest ecosystems will increase by 10-20% • Increase in agricultural crops for biofuel production is estimated at 25%

Impact on the Nordic Energy system

Conclusions • Climate change over the next 100 years will have significant impact on our energy system • Most climate changes are beneficial and none catastrophic; Dam safety is nevertheless an issues • Significant increase in inflow and hydro power potential – Especially for the ECHAM scenario

• Increased potential for biomass and biofuels • Limited change in wind power production (avrg.) – however regional changes

The main project results

Impact of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources Edited by Jes Fenger Contribution from 30+ specialists on energy and climate change

Published 2007 Pages 192 Price DKK 165

To order http://www.norden.org/pub/sk/showpub.asp?pubnr=2007:003

New project 2007-2010

Climate & Energy Systems (CES) • Main objective – To improve the decision framework of the energy sector in the face of imminent impacts of climate changes on renewable resources and the energy system – Special emphasis on the near future relevant to the energy sector, time frame 20-30 years – Extend the co-operation to the Pan-Arctic

IPY 2007-2008: Arctic-HYDRA • • • •

Cluster of several hydrological projects within the IPY Seed funding by the Nordic Council of Ministers Pending application for seed funding from other bodies Supported by the World Meteorological Organization (Operational Hydrology) and the UNESCO-International Hydrology Program (Science) • Participation of all Arctic Countries • Participation of all Arctic Hydrological Services • Dissemination through the Arctic Portal

Product development, outreach (Maps, analytical products)

Data Assimilation & Modeling, Archiving services Data Assimilation & Modeling

Arctic-HYCOS

LTHO/NRB: River-basin case/process studies

Field campaigns, other components e.g., glacial runoff, permafrost

Arctic-HYDRA

Comprehensive modelling of the Pan-Arctic

Greenland – HIRHAM-ECHAM Changes in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 K

Annual mean temperature

%

Precipitation

B2

A2

The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet

IPCC 2007

Thank you for your attention

project homepage www.os.is/ce