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SECRET
°OCUMENT I S T H E P R O P E R T Y
c
2
(82) 9
OF H E R B R I T A N N I C
MAJESTY'S
38
GOVERNMENT
COPY NO
October
1982
CABINET
PUBLIC
EXPENDITURE
Memorandum b y t h e
Chief
SURVEY
1982
Secretary,
Treasury
1. On 1 5 J u l y , C a b i n e t a g r e e d ( C C ( 8 2 ) J ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ our t h i s y e a r ' s S u r v e y s h o u l d be t o h o d o t o t a l s w h i c h we a n n o u n c e d e a r l i e r t h i s y e a r , t h a t and 1 9 8 4 - 8 5 , t h e a g g r e g a t e o f programmes plusJ^^ i n t h e 1982 W h i t e P a p e r (Cmnd 8 4 9 4 ) a s m o d i * i e d t o y a
i
m
i
n
m
i
a n n o u n c e d i n t h e B u d g e t a n d w i t h some I was i n v i t e d t o h o l d b i l a t e r a l m e e t i n g s view to s e c u r i n g t h i s o b j e c t i v e .
n
p l a n n i n g the pi^ning s, f o r I9»d »
g^decisions the
decisions
s
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ f w i t h with colleagues wixn t
a a
e
PROPOSALS 2. to
T h e s e m e e t i n g s h a v e made g o o d p r o g r e s s colleagues for their constructive help.
3
and
I now p u t f o r r c a r d f o r t h e C a b i n e t ' s ' P e x p e n d i t u r e programmes s e t out i n Annex A t o a c h i e v e t h e o b j e c t i v e w h i c h we s e t o u r s e l v e s accepted, w i l l l e a d t o t o t a l s o f £120.5 b u l l i 127. b i l l i o n f o r 1984-85 and £133.3 £
3
I
am m o s t
grateful
0
P ' ! ^ * ^ " ^ ^ t h i s paper. They i n J u l y and, " on « | j " J ? ! ^ ' f a
8
8
n
d
4
Q
concerned. 4.
On
some
features
of
the
proposals
a
I
s h o u l d comment
furthers
Defence. P r o v i s i o n has been agreed f o r r e a l growth i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h the G o v e r n m e n t ' s commitment t o p l a n t o i m p l e m e n t i n f u l l t h e NATO a i m o f 3 p e r c e n t g r o w t h Per annum. In a d d i t i o n , the defence budget has been i n c r e a s e d t o meet i n f u l l t h e d e f e n c e c o s t s associated w i t h the F a l k l a n d I s l a n d s . The l a t t e r a c c o u n t f o r t h e w h o l e i n c r e a s e i n p r o v i s i o n o f £622 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 8 3 - 8 4 a n d t h e b u l k o f t h e i n c r e a s e s o f £774 m i l l i o n a n d £648 m i l l i o n in the l a t e r years.
1
SECRET
SECRET
b. Local Authority Current Expenditure. The f i g u r e s i n Annex A r e f l e c t the agreements i n E Committee and e l s e w h e r e , b o t h o n t h e p r o v i s i o n t o b e made f o r t h i s e x p e n d i t u r e a n d , f o r 1 9 8 3 - 8 4 , on i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n between s e r v i c e s . For Great B r i t a i n i n 1983-84, a t o t a l a d d i t i o n of £1.07 b i l l i o n has been a l l o w e d o f w h i c h £270 m i l l i o n h a s b e e n a l l o c a t e d t o s e r v i c e s . The r e m a i n i n g £800 m i l l i o n i s i n c l u d e d a s a n u n a l l o c a t e d margin i n r e c o g n i t i o n that l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s w i l l i n r e a l i t y o v e r s p e n d t h e s e r v i c e t o t a l s w h i c h we c o n s i d e r desirable. The m a r g i n i n d i c a t e s t h e e x t e n t o f t h e o v e r s p e n d we s h o u l d r e l u c t a n t l y b e p r e p a r e d t o countenance before applying grant p e n a l t i e s . c. Nationalised Industries. The n a t i o n a l i s e d i n d u s t r y f i g u r e s ( s e t out i n d e t a i l i n Annex B) have been agreed with sponsor M i n i s t e r s . I n summary, t h e t o t a l s are a p p r o x i m a t e l y a t t h e b a s e l i n e i n 1 9 8 3 - 8 4 , £250 m i l l i o n a b o v e i n 1 9 8 4 - 8 5 , a n d £370 m i l l i o n b e l o w i n 1 9 8 5 - 8 6 . I c o n s i d e r t h i s r e p r e s e n t s a s a t i s f a c t o r y outcome t o t h i s y e a r ' s Investment and F i n a n c i n g Review. d. Economic Assumptions and P a y . Where n e c e s s a r y , the programme t o t a l s have been a d j u s t e d t o r e f l e c t t h e most recent economic f o r e c a s t . The o v e r a l l e f f e c t i s an i n c r e a s e i n e x p e n d i t u r e on s o c i a l s e c u r i t y as a r e s u l t of h i g h e r unemployment, p a r t l y o f f s e t by r e d u c t i o n s on e x p o r t c r e d i t s a n d h o u s i n g a s a r e s u l t o f l o w e r interest rates. A g e n e r a l a d j u s t m e n t h a s b e e n made r e f l e c t i n g our d e c i s i o n t o adopt a pay a s s u m p t i o n of 3.5 p e r cent f o r i n c r e a s e s i n p u b l i c s e r v i c e pay compared w i t h the o r i g i n a l cash p r o v i s i o n of 6 per cent. e
« Special Sales of Assets. The s i z e and shape o f our f u t u r e p r i v a t i s a t i o n programme a r e b e i n g r e v i e w e d at p r e s e n t and the f i g u r e s i n Annex A are p r o v i s i o n a l . Major elements i n the current f i g u r e s are B r i t o i l ( p a r t p r o c e e d s e x p e c t e d i n 1 9 8 3 - 8 4 ) , B r i t i s h Gas C o r p o r a t i o n ' s o f f s h o r e o i l i n t e r e s t s ( 1 9 8 3 - 8 4 ) , and B r i t i s h Telecom (part proceeds expected i n 1984-85). My c o l l e a g u e s w i l l n o t e t h a t t h e p r o p o s e d p l a n n i n g t o t a l f o r 1 9 8 4 - 8 5 i s some £ 4 0 0 m i l l i o n b e l o w t h e baseline total. T h i s r e s u l t s f r o m t h e much h i g h e r l e v e l o f r e c e i p t s w h i c h i s now e x p e c t e d i n t h a t y e a r . Contingency Reserve. The p r o p o s a l s e n v i s a g e t h a t we s h o u l d r e t a i n f o r u n f o r e s e e n o p e r a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s in 1983-84 a c o n t i n g e n c y r e s e r v e o f £1.5 b i l l i o n . The p r e c i s e f i g u r e I s h a l l k e e p u n d e r r e v i e w u n t i l the White Paper i s p u b l i s h e d . T h e r e i s no o p e r a t i o n a l n e e d t o t a k e f i r m d e c i s i o n s now o n t h e r e s e r v e s f o r the two l a t e r y e a r s . I have i n c l u d e d a p r o v i s i o n a l r e s e r v e o f £4 b i l l i o n f o r e a c h y e a r , b u t I p r o p o s e t o r e v i e w t h e s e f i g u r e s w h e n we c o m e t o p r e p a r e the P u b l i c Expenditure White Paper. 2
SECRET
SECRET
MANPOWER The p r o p o s a l s l o r C i v i l S e r v i c e manpower, w h i c h have i n most 5. cases been a g r e e d b i l a t e r a l l y , are at Annex C . They are w i t h i n t h e l i m i t s w h i c h we a g r e e d o n 1 5 J u l y ( C C ( 8 2 ) 3 8 t u C o n c l u s i o n s ) . At 1 A p r i l 1 9 8 4 , t o t a l C i v i l S e r v i c e numbers s h o u l d be j u s t b e l o w our t a r g e t o f 6 3 0 , 0 0 0 . The f i g u r e s f o r l a t e r y e a r s show a c o n t i n u i n g d e c l i n e b u t may n e e d t o b e r e v i s e d l a t e r t o r e f l e c t o u r e v e n t u a l d e c i s i o n s on C i v i l S e r v i c e manpower a f t e r 1 9 8 4 . I shall be m a k i n g p r o p o s a l s a b o u t t h i s l a t e r o n . OVERALL EFFECT OF THE PROPOSALS °. I f my p r o p o s a l s i n A n n e x A a r e a c c e p t e d , we s h a l l h a v e s u c This ceeded i n k e e p i n g w i t h i n our p u b l i s h e d e x p e n d i t u r e p l a n s . has n o t b e e n done by any G o v e r n m e n t s i n c e 1 9 7 7 , when t h e r e d u c t i o n f o l l o w e d the i n t e r v e n t i o n of the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Monetary Fund i n the p r e v i o u s y e a r . ANNOUNCEMENT OF D E C I S I O N S 7
I p r o p o s e t h a t the announcement o f t h e s e d e c i s i o n s as p a r t o i the autumn Statement by t h e C h a n c e l l o r s h o u l d , as l a s t y e a r , c o n t a i n b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n s of the changes t o programmes, together i t h a summary, f o r 1983-84 o n l y , o f t h e r e v i s e d programme and P l a n n i n g t o t a l s and s u c h o t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n as can be Provided i n the time a v a i l a b l e . F u l l d e t a i l s of the r e v i s e d p r o grammes f o r a l l y e a r s w i l l b e p r o v i d e d i n t h e P u b l i c E x p e n d i t u r e W h i t e P a p e r , w h i c h we h o p e t o p u b l i s h r a t h e r e a r l i e r t h a n l a s t a r , at the end o f January o r e a r l y i n F e b r u a r y . w
V e
CONCLUSION 8
I b e l i e v e the s o l u t i o n s a r r i v e d at i n our b i l a t e r a l d i s c u s s i o n s are r e a s o n a b l e , s t r i k i n g a f a i r balance between competing demands. We s h a l l b e a b l e t o s h o w t h a t we h a v e m e t t h e m o s t urgent needs and f u l f i l l e d our commitments, w h i l e s t i c k i n g t o the e x p e n d i t u r e p l a n s we a n n o u n c e d l a s t y e a r . 9
*
I therefore
invite
my c o l l e a g u e s ;
a. t o a p p r o v e , s u b j e c t t o any t e c h n i c a l r e v i s i o n s o f d e t a i l , the e x p e n d i t u r e programmes i n Annex A , the e x t e r n a l f i n a n c i n g l i m i t s f o r the n a t i o n a l i s e d i n d u s t r i e s i n Annex B a n d t h e p r o p o s a l s f o r C i v i l S e r v i c e manpower i n Annex C , and b. to agree that our above ( p a r a g r a p h 7 ) .
d e c i s i o n s s h o u l d be
LB
a
sury
Chambers
October
1982 3
SECRET
announced
as
ANNEX A E million
Revised Programme D
0«f, e
nc
1985-86
1984-85
1983-84
Change from baseline
Revised Programme
Change from baseline
Revised Programme
Change from baseline
e p a r t ment*
e
evelop
m e n t
•-onHnonwealth
°Pean Com
Office
ni unity
Ufa
15,900
+622
17,199
+774
18,244
+648
1,162
+26
1,215
+22
1,264
+
+24
533
+9
551
-
574
+1
430
-150
514
-86
687
+63
740
+45
738
+18
759
+11
974
+ 16
986
+18
1,014
+8
61
-2
60
-3
62
-4
1,126
+49
1,086
+123
1,085
+83
448
+44
462
+29
482
+32
260
+1
262
-3
278
+2
102
-85
38
-274
-36
-361
2,947
+177
3,310
+399
3,322
+288
3,316
-2
3,411
-8
3,546
-10
2,800
+49
2,980
+125
3,099
+130
460
+5
484
+10
482
-6
3,042
-65
3,137
-90
3,266
-90
4,025
+ 107
4,126
+18
4,294
+21
438
-12
482
-22
521
-2
12,571
+87
12,791
+32
13,303
+33
563
+5
581
+1
604
+1
14,634
+80
15,343
+84
16,017
+147
'<*e.t t y
Commission
It
8
^ o m e n t a l Services/ 'Offic C e l l o t lc
' » Department
«ti, or,
^ a l
Social
Set vie
+62
CUtity c
ivii Upe,a
»»uation
34,131
+616
35,453
+48
37,393
+562
970
-5
1,010
-53
1,111
•5
6,038
+16
6,230
-3
6,491
+9
2,416
+8
2,501
-2
2,603
+3
3,827
+54
4,020
+31
4,192
+44
2,039
+16
2,121
-4
2,221
+10
3,080
-
2,790
+250
2,260
-370
794
+794
1,000
+1,000
750
+750
fr
eland
e
Pa*tm ents
Q«ali ^^u.t, A u t
«o
r i t y
A
**eed
C
l e 8
^""ent unallocated a d j U
W
*
l m e n t
» to baseline
,lea
P a y
+167
+144
+158
fac
" to n ^ ~ t o r (to be *tio ) " n e s before c
08ran
n
-120
-120
-125
-125
-130
-130
-750
-150
-1,500
-900
-500
+124
1,500
-2,500
4,000
-2,000
4,000
-2,240
T
otft! 120,457 J u l
y Cabinet
remit)
120,500
-43
127,266 127,700
-434
133,258 133,300
-42
CONFiL * HAL
^^Sgtesto Annex A AH figures are
rounded d o w n to the
nearest £ m i l l i o n .
T o t a l s m a y not p r e c i s e l y
reconcile due to rounding e r r o r . d e l u d e s £15 m i l l i o n f o r C o m m o n w e a l t h D e v e l o p m e n t C o r p o r a t i o n n o t y e t a g r e e d . deludes e x
expenditure
considered
i n the
and Financing
Investment
Review:
this
P e n d i t u r e is i n c l u d e d i n the n a t i o n a l i s e d industries l i n e .
PiLljgegjn A n n e x A
Includes
increase
for
a l l Falklands costs
as
well
p r o v i s i o n for r e a l g r o w t h i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h the
as
NATO
a i m of 3ykper a n n u m . r^T^^S^ommiinity
E s t i m a t i n g changes.
These figures are subject to change
in the light of l a t e r forecasts of l i k e l y expenditure. *•
Increases
in
shipbuilding, estimating
assistance steel
&
reductions
for
industry,
aerospace, in
particularly
partly
expenditure
offset on
by
regional
development grants. Increases
mainly
on
miners' redundarcy
payments
and
pensions. Net
reductions
resulting
from
lower
forecast
interest
rates.
b
Increased
expenditure, m a i n l y on c o m m u n i t y p r o g r a m m e
and
splitting
job
subsidy,
partly
offset
by
reduced
requirements and other savings. Increased provision for l o c a l authority c a p i t a l spending, p a r t l y o f f s e t b y r e d u c e d s u b s i d y c o s t s as a r e s u l t o f l o w e r interest rate assumptions.
5k Includes
additions
of
£15 m i l l i o n
£20 million i n 1984-85 and service
efficiency
by
in
1983-84
and
1985-86 for i m p r o v i n g
civil
remedying
substandard
a c c o m m o d a t i o n , p a r t l y offset by a 2% reduction in cash limited expenditure in each year.
Other environmental services
Although
a
general
programme,
reduction
additional receipts
has
been
from
made in f loc
the
sale
oi
a u t h o r i t y f i x e d a s s e t s w i l l p e r m i t a s u b s t a n t i a l increase t a l
capi
gross expenditure, programmes.
particularly
in
urban lice
Home Office
The
m a i n i n c r e a s e s a r e f o r t h e n e t c o s t s o f e x t r a p°
and t h e p r i s o n s . current
Education The
main
increase
is
for
local
authority
expenditure on e d u c a t i o n . Health
f o r
is
T he ea l t hi n caruetahsoer i toyf sseor m year h v iec e s£80 , Wme il lflai roen m(iEl kn g laanndd ) /new i n i t i a t i v e s for s e r v i c e i m p r o v e m e n t s .
centra
T h i s is >n
1
in
t o a n e x t r a £60 m i l l i o n a l r e a d y a g r e e d
cost the additi°
for
n
ease
1 9 8 3 - 8 4 o f t h e M a r c h p a y o f f e r . T h e r e is also an i »
c r
i n 1 9 8 5 - 8 6 for f a m i l y p r a c t i t i o n e r s e r v i c e s . Social Security
.
Includes revised estimate
r e
flecti^
of benefit provision * asts o*
l a t e s t i n f o r m a t i o n on e x p e n d i t u r e a n d r e v i s e d f o r e LA
current
u n e m p l o y m e n t and i n f l a t i o n . For 1983-84, expenditure programmes
on
the
basis
has
been
agreed
by
alloca
c
ted
^ on
Minist
e r
llrtCft* •
16 S e p t e m b e r : balance.
this line shows the r e m a i n i n g F o r l a t e r y e a r s n o e x p e n d .i t u r e
has
b
e
e
• include a l l o c a t e d t o p r o g r a m m e s a n d a l l e x p e n d i t u r e is
1
. 1
• f Secret* ""
this line.
The figures are based on the Chiet a
p r o p o s a l s for E n g l a n d , a n d a r e h e a v i l y r o u n d e d . Contingency R e s e r v e / Provisional Reserve
rh
The
reductions
represent
a l l o c a t e d to p r o g r a m m e s .
that
part
of
eac
res<*
ve
CONFIDENTIAL CO
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s:
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