produced 19th December 1982

---

CONFIDENTIAL

KBA144/1

PUBLIC OPINION BACKGROUND (produced 19th December

NOTE 144 1982)

1. Introduction

•

The results from our latest Gallup 'tracking' study are the same as those published in the Daily Telegraph on 17th December 1982. The survey was conducted from 8th to Compared 13th December and Gallup interviewed 928 electors throughout Great Britain. with the results of previous published Gallup surveys the latest study found our The trend of support for the parties in lead over Labour continuing to decline. published polls is shown below:-

Published

Gallup Polls

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sept

1982

1982

1982

1982

Conservative

41

42

40%

44

Labour

34%

341/

29

30%

9

8

12

8"

Liberal SDP Others

0

13 2%

13% 2

5 31/2

14% 2%

Conservative support has dropped slightly since September and Labour support has tended Alliance support was 23% in September compared with 22% in December. to drift upwards. Conservative support in our unpublished polls has fallen since late November and Labour and Alliance support has tended to drift upwards. Details of the trend insupport for themain parties since the start of the vear in our unpublished 'tracking' studies is shown overleaf:-

K3/138/2

vOTTN0 2NTENTION unprcmoted ouestion, don't ',,:nows) 3002A11,

:ONLA3

1979% MayY37E43.936.913.3 13/16 Sune*42.343.511.1

5.5 5.0

'982 5/11 Jan25.530.017.0 13/18 Jan27.529.513.0 20/25 San30.327.014.0 27 Jan/1 Feb29.029.315.0 318 Feb29.029.015.0 10/15 Feb27.534.014.5 17/22 Feb26.533.514.0 24 Feb/1 March31.332.511.0 3/8 March30.333.511.5 11/15.March31.532.011.5 17/22 Marcft34.030.311.0 24/29 March32.028.011.0 31 March/5 April34.027.010.0 7/12 April31.529.011.0 11 /19 Apr'l31.030.010.0 21/26 April31.533.010.5 28 Apri113 May37.030.511.0 5/10 May41.528.09.5 12/17 May42.331.010.0 19/24 May45.027.011.0 25/31 May45.527.09.5 48.5 23.511.5 2/7 June 9/14 June45.025.010.0 16/21 June49.024.010.0 23/28 june45.529.010.0 30 June/5 July45.025.512.5 7/12 July46.527.57.5 14/19 July44.027.53.5

25.0).....7 26.53.5 2 6.52.5 24.33.0 2 6.01.3 21.52.5 22 .04.0 22.53.0 21.0+4.0 21.5+2.5 21.0+4.0 27.5+1.5 2 5.3+3.0 26.0+2.5 26.0+3.0 24.5+0.5 20.3+1.5 19.5,1.5 16.0+1.0 15.0+2.0 16.0+2.0 1 4.5+2.0 ..._. '°°, 15.5-2.3 13.3+2.5 15.0+2.3 16.5+2.3 13.0+2.3 17.5+3.0 16.0+2.0

21/26 July39.030.510.0 28 July/2 Aug43.530.03.5

13.5+3.5 :7.0+1.5 15.5+2.0 15.2,1.5

A46.0:3.09.0 4 /9ug 1:116 Aug44.526.510.5 18/23 Aug45.527.39.0 25/30 Aug40.032.35

.-.7P.= 5.0

1/6Sent43.5 3113 Sept44.030.55.5 15/21 Sept42.333.03.0 7.,.,/,7 Sept43..29+517:5 29 Sept/4 Oct40.021-.213.5 5/110ct42..802.'3'.10.5 :3/18 Oct-43.031.09.0 2Q/25 Oct40.529.3.12.0 37 0c;tfINcv___...48.0_31,0_.

8.°

3/10 Nov44.033.09.0 :0/15 Nov42.035.08.0 17/22 Nov,41.533.09.0 46.5 74/29 Nov 1/6 Dec_43.035.09.0 3/13 Dec41.034.59.0

32.07.5

*First Gallup Post-Electdon would vcte fcr the Alliance.

._ 471 .....014.5-2.5 15.0+2.0

1 47AD ....onover Lab

800241 II3E8AL 2EM0CRAT

-7.3 -9.3

13.3 13.3

-4.5 -2..°** + 3.0 0.0 0.0 - 7.0 1.5 -3.5 -1.5** + 4.0 + 4.0 - 7.0 + 2.=** +1.0 -1.5 + 5.5 +13.5** +11.5 , 13.3 +18.5 - 25.0 + 20.0** 475.0 +16.5 ,19.5 +19.0** +16.6 +8.5 +13.E

42.0 39.5 40.5 39.0 41.0 35.0 36.3 33.5 32.5 33.0 32.0 38.5 36.3 37.3 36.0 35.0 31.0 29.0 26.0

?.‘

26.3 7 5.5 26.0 28.5 25.5 23.0 27.5 24.0 25.5 27.5

24.5

+13.0

22.5

-13.0**

27.5 25.5 26.5

..i.o -15.3 +13.5*+9.0

15.0 23.0 23.0

13.0+).0 13.0+2.0 13.0+2.3 13.5+3.5 15.0+3.5 11.0+_1.5

+13.5 + 8.5 +10.5. ,12.0 +11.5**

25.5 75.3 23.5 22.5 27.0

+17.;1

19.5

12.0+2.0

+11.0

21.3

13.0+2.0 :4.0+2.5 1 1.5+2.5 11.0+2.0 13.0+2.5

Survey, ** Published

+7.0** -8.5 +14.5 +8.0 +6.5**

21.0 23.0 10.0 22.0

Polls, + includes those saying they

KB/144/3

2. Government Record The latest study found 50% claiming to disapprove of our record in government, 37% approving and 13% did not have a view. This compares with the situation at the start ofthe year when 23% approved of the government record, 55% disapproved and 12% did nor have a view. Details of the trend from the standard goverment record cuestion is shown below. GOVEFNMENT RECTRD

1979 12/18 June 1982 6111 January 13/18 january 20/25 January 27 Jan/1 Feb 3/8 Feb 10/15 Feb 7 7/22 Feb 24 Febil March 3/8 March 11/15 March 17/22 March 24/29 March 31 March/ 5 April 7/12 April 13/19 April 21/25 April 28 Apri1/3 May 5/10 May 12/17 May 19/24 May 25/31 May 2/7 June 9/14 June 16/21 June 23,428June 30 June/5 July 7/12 July 14/19 July 21/26 July 28 ju1y/2 Aug 4/9 Aug 11/15 Aug 16/23 Aug 25/30 Aug 1/5 Sept 8/13 Sett

Approve

Disapprove

Don't Khow

34

41

25

23 24 25 25 25 24 22 22

55 55 52 52 63 55 66 53 65 59 60 58 57 56 54 55 47

12 12 13 13 11 10 12 13 11 12 13 ...., " 12 12 12 11 13 12 15 10

24

29 78

29 31 32 34 34 40 42 43 45 50 49 48 51 47 47 47 44 43 43 42

46

42 44 38 39 40 36 41 39 41 43 45 43

72

12 12 13 12 14 12 13 12 15

4=

12

42

.1.4

:4

43

43

27 41

52 45

14 1-

40

-la

14 13 12

15/21 Sept 22/27 Sept 29 Sept/4 Oct 6/12 3ct

28

49

38 26 40

50 51 , —,

13/18 Oct 20/25 Oct

28 40

48

27/Ocr/1 Nov

42 41

45

39

48

13 13 13

3/10Nov 10/15 Nov 17/22 Nov 24/29 Nov 1/6 Dec 8/13 Dec

12 13

49

4R

39

47

14

44

42 37

47 30

13 l'-;

KB/144/4

3. Popularit

of Political Leaders

r's popularity when compared The latest study found almost no change in Mrs Thatche study, a sliht fall in Mr ng' 'tracki with the results of our previous unpublished ity. popular Steel's Mr in Foot's popularity and a slight fall Details of the trend of approval/disapproval Democrats is shown below:Mr Jenkins of the

is/is not

for Mr Jenkins as leader

rovin

of the Social

a Good Leader

Social Democrats

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sept

:982

1982

1982

1982

Is

34

37

35

37

Is Not

34

33

34

32

Don't Know

32

30

31

31.

Foot and Mr Steel from our Details of the trend of approval for Mrs Thatcher, Mr published studiesare • shown in the table overleaf:-

POPULARITY OF POLITICAL LEADERS v

Mrs Thatcher Sat. DisDon't sat. Know

Mr Foot Is Is Not

Don't Know

7/

Mr Steel Is Is Not

Don't Know

0/

0/

,0

1982 6/11 January 13/18 January 20/25 January 27 Jan/1 Feb 3/8 Feb 10/15 Feb 17/22 Feb 24 Feb/1 March 3/8 March 11/15 March 17/22 March 24/29 March Agel March/5 April 411P/12 April 13/19 April 21/26 April 28 Apri1/3 May 5/10 May 12/17 May 19/24 May 26/31 May 2/7 June 9/14 June 16/21 June 23/28 June 30 June/5 July 7/12 July 14/19 July 21/26 July 28 July/2 Aua_

30 32 32 33 31 29 29 32 30 34 33 35 37 35 36 37 41 44 48 47 50 53 51 55 52 53 52 40 47 48

65 65 64 62 65 66 65 63 66 62 62 59 58 60 60 59 53 51 47 48 43 42 44 40 42 41 43 46 47 46

4111/9 Aug 11/16 Aug 18/23 Aug •25/30 Aug -1/ -qept 8/13 Sept 15/21Sept 22/27 Sepl: eot/4 'Oct

48 49 49 44 49 48 46 46 44

47 47 46 50 45 47 49 50 51 48

3/11Oct 7 3/13 Oct 2 0/%5

Oct

27 Oct/1 Nov 3/10 Nov 10/15 Nov 17/22 Ncv 24/29 Nov 1/6 Dec 8/13 Dec

46 45 46 48 48

44 44

48 45 44

53 a

5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 4 6 6 5 5 7 5 5 5 a

6 5 5 6 6 5 4 5

20 18 17 19 20 19 20 21 20 21 22

19 20 23 28 26 24 18 17 18 16 15 14 17 14 14 16 14 15 14 12 15 13 18 14 16 14 16 27

25 .72

65 67 68 64 63 66 64 64 64 65 64 65 65 61 59 60 65 71 71 72 75 74 75 74 75 77 72 75 74 75,

14 16 15 17 17 15 16 15 16 14 14 15 15 16 14 14 12 11 19

10 10 5 11 9 10 9 12 11 11 11

73 74 74 72 74 74 73 74 60

12 11 ,, 10 12 10 12

62 66

13

—

1.2

62 59 59 60 61 59 58 55 58 58 59 61 60 63 63 66 62 64 65 63 64 61 62 58 62 64 61 60 59 62 60 62 52 61 59 59 62 64 64 .62 56

,0

20 22

29 18 20 23 20 23 24 22 21

20 22

18 18 17 20 70 18 18 18 2 1

21 20 19 18 20 18 21

18 20 19 21 19 20 71

19 20 19

18 19 lo 2,2 __ 19 17 21 22

18 19 20 19 18 19 lq

17 18 17 17 19 19 18 18 20 20 18 19 21 20 20_ 30 19 21

20 71 20 13

7,7)

-3-r,

4

20

69

12

60

29

18

48. 48

4

20 23

66 65

14 11

24

52 51 47 51 53

5 5 5 5

22 25 18 23 20

157 63 68 67 69

12 11 14 10 10

57 58 59 59 57 62 60

24 27 20 27 18

18 18 19 20 20 19

22

17

KB/144/5

4.

Published Polls (Daily Tele ra h 17th December

Gallu

1982)

In addition to the standard 'tracking' questionsGallup views in a range of issues facing the Government.

asked respondents

for their

with a Gallup asked respondents which party they thought had the best policies to deal They found:range of issues.

Best Policies Other

ConLabAlliance

Don't Knoll

0

20

0

29

0

72

(%)37778

0

79

Strikes and industrial disputes(%)43328

0

17

National Health Service(%)75478

0

20

0

20

0

75

Inflation and Prices Unemployment

(%)49256

(%)

449

2

Britain's Defence(%)49718 Common Market

Education

and Schools(%)323810

Law and Order(%)43216

Gallup found the Conservatives to be ahead cn five cifthe eight issues with Labour ahead on three. S stem Three (Glaspow erald 17th December 1982) The Glasgow Herald on 17th December included details of a System Three poll conductell in Scotland from November 19th to 29th. The survey found:Dec

Oct

General Election

1982

1982

May 1979

or ,o

28

26

31

Labour

46

42

SDP/Liberal

16

SNP

12

Conservative

* Liberal only

9* 1 7