18 June 2013
Bernstein Energy Russia & the FSU
Production & Exploration Performance in Russia & the FSU Oswald Clint Senior Research Analyst European & Russian Oil & Gas
Oswald Clint PhD, ACA Senior Research Analyst
[email protected] +44 20 7959 5089 See Disclosure Appendix of this publication for important disclosures and analyst certifications BernsteinResearch.com
Iain Pyle, CFA, ACA Senior Research Associate
[email protected] +44 20 7170 0564
Rob West Senior Research Associate
[email protected] +44 20 7170 0589
Current Production Recent Exploration Opportunities
BernsteinResearch.com
1
FSU oil & gas production reached a new peak in 2011 and 2012
2005 23.6 Mboed
2012 26.0 Mboed
30.0
30%
25.0
25%
20.0
20%
15.0
15%
10.0
10%
5.0
5%
0.0
0%
Oil
Gas
% of Global Production
Oil and Gas Production (Mboed)
1990 23.6 Mboed
% of Global Production
Source: BP Statistical Review and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
2
The largest FSU producer, Russia, continues to grow production in 2013
10.6
Oil & Condensate Production (Mbpd)
10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7
9.6 Jan
Feb
Mar 2008
Apr
May 2009
Jun 2010
Jul
Aug 2011
Sep 2012
Oct
Nov
Dec
2013
Source: RIATEC BernsteinResearch.com
3
Production by company reveals the moving parts Russian Oil Production Monitor
Russian Oil Production (kbpd)
Total Oil
Latest (kbpd)
Last Month
Last Year
YTD
YTD Prior Year
10,448 10,448 10,316 10,448 10,335
m-o-m kbpd
y-o-y kbpd
YTD y-o-y
m-o-m %
y-o-y %
YTD y-o-y
1
133
113
0.0%
1.3%
1.1%
2.6% 0.2% -0.9% 0.2% -0.6% 0.9% -3.9% 15.9% 1.6% -1.3% 4.8% 5.9%
2.6% 0.1% -1.2% 0.6% -0.9% 0.8% -4.3% 15.6% 1.5% -1.3% 3.1% 5.4%
Key Companies Rosneft Lukoil TNK-BP Surgutneftegas GazpromNeft Tatneft Slavneft Gazprom Bashneft Russneft Novatek Other Producers
2504 1689 1465 1232 884 530 343 347 315 272 90 672
2,509 1,693 1,454 1,232 883 530 342 369 314 272 90 673
2,440 1,685 1,478 1,230 890 526 357 299 310 276 86 634
2,504 1,693 1,454 1,232 884 530 344 368 313 272 90 673
2,440 1,691 1,473 1,225 892 526 360 318 309 276 87 638
-5 -5 11 0 2 0 1 -22 1 0 0 -1
64 4 -13 2 -5 5 -14 48 5 -4 4 38
64 2 -18 8 -8 4 -16 50 5 -4 3 35
-0.2% -0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% -6.0% 0.2% -0.1% 0.3% -0.2%
426 336 153 11 139
425 333 152 11 140
338 355 139 13 156
422 334 152 11 141
335 359 133 16 158
1 3 1 0 -1
89 -19 14 -2 -17
87 -25 19 -4 -17
0.2% 26.3% 25.9% 0.8% -5.4% -7.0% 0.8% 10.1% 14.2% 0.9% -13.2% -28.1% -0.7% -11.0% -10.5%
Key Fields Vankorneft Samotlorneftegas Verkhnechonskneftegas Kolvinskoye (Alliance Oil) Salym Petroleum
Source: NefteCompass and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
4
Russia
US conventional
70
80
Russia
China Mexico
Other Europe, LatAm and Africa
Angola & Nigeria
Brazil CIS
UAE
Saudi Arabia
N Africa OPEC
20
Kuwait
40
Venezuela
60
Norway & UK
Bakken
Eagle Ford
80
Iran/Iraq
Breakeven Cost Estimate ($/bbl)
100
Canada (Oil Sands)
120
.
Other US Shales
Problem is that Russia, while one of the world’s largest producers, is also one of the highest cost crude producers
0 0
10
20
30
40 50 Daily Production (Mbpd)
60
90
Source: Rystad Energy and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
5
Government take remains a key impediment to wide-scale investment Brent
$ 106.0
Discount on Urals
$ 2.5
Export duty
$ 51.1
MET
$ 19.4
Production cost
$ 3.0
Transport cost
$ 8.2
SG&A
$ 2.2
Income tax
$ 3.9
Net Income
$ 15.7
Capex
$ 5.0
FCF
$ 10.7 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
14
Stabilization Fund
12
200
National Wealth Fund
150
Reserve Fund
$Bn
10 8 6
100
4 50 May-…
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-…
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-…
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-…
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-…
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-…
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-…
Jan-07
Sep-06
May-…
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-…
Jan-05
Sep-04
Jan-04
-
May-…
2
Fund size/budget expenditure (months)
$/bbl
250
-
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
6
35
80%
30
70% 25 60% 50%
20
40%
15
30% 10 20% 5
10% 0%
0
Proportion of Production From New Fields (1st 10-years production)
Average Field Age of Russian Barrel Produced (Years)
90%
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Proportion of Production From "New" Fields < 1 Decade Of Production (%)
Volumes come from fields in production for 30-years; while fields that are in their first decade of production are as low as 12%
Average Age Per Russian Bpd
Source: BP Statistical, World Oil and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
7
Water cut is also a chief determinant of the productivity per well at existing fields
Average Production Per Well (bpd)
10,000
1,000
100
10 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% 60% Water Cut (%)
70%
80%
90%
100%
Source: Company Reports, Bernstein Analysis (orange = historical data points; blue = more recent data points) BernsteinResearch.com
8
High water cut and declining well productivity is countered by an increase in drilling in Russia
200
Increase in wells at new fields as production ramps up
New Wells Drilled (y-o-y)
150
Increased numbers of wells to counter high water cut at maturing fields
100
50
0
-50 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% 60% Water Cut (%)
70%
80%
90%
100%
Source: Company Reports, Bernstein Analysis (orange = historical data points; blue = more recent data points) BernsteinResearch.com
9
Russian fields need a lot more wells to get the same volumes out
2011 Production (kbpd)
1,000
Lula
100
10
1 1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Total Wells Drilled (#) Lukoil - Major Oil Fields
Norway - 25 Largest Fields
Gulf of Mexico - 25 Largest Fields
Lula
Source: Company reports and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
10
0.00
BernsteinResearch.com
US Onshore Stripper Wells
0.4
Average West Siberia (Rosneft & Lukoil, 2011)
0.4
Average West Siberia Frac (Rosneft & Lukoil, 2011)
0.5
Average West Siberia Horizontal (Rosneft & Lukoil, 2011)
0.6
GoM <250m
0.8
Russian Onshore (Rosneft, 5-year Average, 1st year)
1.00
GoM 250-500m
2.4
GoM 500-1000m
3.7
Norway
5.5
GoM 1000-2000m
9.0
UK North Sea
10.00
GoM >2000m
33.0
Brazilian Pre-Salt
50.0
Iran Fractured Carbonates
Hibernia, Canada
Flow Per Well (kbpd)
An order of magnitude lower well productivity at Russian fields drives the need for more wells
Average Peak Monthly Flow Rate Per Well (kbpd)
19.8
1.7 0.3
0.10
0.01
10 bpd
Source: Company reports and Bernstein Estimates
11
Median field has declined slowly at just -1.3% per year, but declining fields fell more rapidly at -6.5% / year
y-o-y Change in Field Production (%)
30%
Benefits arising from fieldramp-up, infrastructure ramp-up, EOR & reservoir management
20%
10% 3.4% 0.3%
-1.3%
0% -0.7% -10%
-10.5%
-6.5% -15.4%
-20%
-30% 0%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Percentile
Russia (ex-Small Fields)
Russia (ex-Small Field) Declining Fields
Source: IHS, BP Statistical Review and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
12
Typical profile is longer ramp-up and slower decline than offshore...which means a Russian project takes the longest to recover all the oil
Production As % of Peak
100% 80% 60% 40% 20%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
0%
Yeas Since First Production (Years)
Proportion of Field's Recoverable Oil Produced (%)
Norway
UK
Gulf of Mexico
Russia
100%
75%
50%
25%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
0% Yeas Since First Production (Years) Norway
UK
Gulf of Mexico
Russia
Source: IHS, BP Statistical Review and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
13
This "sluggish“ onshore production profile has a 40% lower NPV than offshore projects even before differences in fiscal regime
NPV / Barrel of New Oil Discovery ($/bbl)
$7.0 $6.0 $5.0
-$2/bbl due to prod'n profile
$4.0 $3.0
$5.8
$6.4 $5.0
$2.0 $3.0
$2.8
-$2.3/bbl due to economics
$1.0 $0.7
$0.0 Norway
UK
Gulf of Mexico
Offshore Average
Offshore Production Profile, Russian Ecnomics
Russia Production Profile, Russian Economics
Source: Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
14
Low NPVs per barrel under Russia's sluggish production profiles & high fiscal takes explain the discount attached to the Russian barrels
1,000,000 Circle Size denotes future production growth; circle colour denotes percentage of production from oil (blue) vs gas (red)
Upstream EV ($Millions)
Novatek
100,000 Gazprom
10,000 Rosneft Surgut
Rosneft
1,000 GazpromNeft
100 10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
2P Reserves (Mboe)
Source: Bloomberg, Company Reports nd Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
15
Russian Upstream Capex
6.0
40,000
5.0 4.0
30,000
3.0 20,000 2.0 10,000
1.0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.0 2011
Gazprom
LUKoil
Rosneft
SurgutNG
TNK
BP
Novatek
Russneft
Tatneft
Bashneft
Other
Capex / boe produced
Russian Upstream Growth By Activity
30%
25% 17.7% 10.6%
8.8%
8.8%
8.2%
7.9%
4.6% OFS Seismic Market
OFS Tech Services Market
Number of Horizontal Wells
Number of Rigs Employed in Russia
OFS Drilling Market
0%
Production Drilling / Year
5%
4.5%
2.7%
1.1% Length Per Well
10.7%
10%
W. Siberian Active Production Wells
15%
W. Siberian Active Injection Wells
18.9%
Number of Russian Fracs
20%
OFS Workovers Market
2006-2011 Five-Year CAGR
7.0
50,000
W. Siberian Production Wells Drilled
Russian Upstream Capex ($M)
60,000
Capex / boe produced ($/boe)
Declining productivity has been countered by rising capital intensity
Source: Company reports, Bernstein estimates BernsteinResearch.com
16
Recent Exploration
BernsteinResearch.com
17
Production is still coming from legacy assets as exploration trends remain disappointing
100000
12,000
10,000
8,000 1000 6,000 100
Oil Production (kbpd)
Discoveries
10000
4,000
10 2,000
Oil Discoveries (Mbbls)
Condensate Discoveries (Mbbls)
Gas Discoveries (Mboe)
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
1948
1944
1940
1936
1932
1
Oil Production (Kbpd)
Source: IHS, Company Reports and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
18
FSU within the context of recent global exploration results (2010-2012) Onshore / Shallow Water Oil - Key challenges are fiscal terms and access
Average Elevation Aboe / Below Sea Level (m)
1,000
Iraq
Gas - key challenges are marketability and LNG costs
China
500
Iran Kazakhstan
Russia 0
Malaysia Azerbaijan
Falklands -500
Norway
Indonesia
Deepwater Oil - Key challenges are technical -1,000
Australia
Angola
Mozambique Ghana
Brazil
-1,500
Tanzania Israel
US Offshore
Cyprus
-2,000 French Guiana
True Frontier Exploration - Key challenge is exploration risk
-2,500
0%
100% Oil
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Average % Gas
Source: IHS and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
19
Opportunities
BernsteinResearch.com
20
More technology - New technologies have been employed to increase well productivity over the past decade, particularly in the early 2000s
Schulmberger fracs Sibneft wells at Noyabrskneftegas
1999
Sibneft trials horizontal wells at Sugmutsky
2000 2001
Additional flow from Lukoil hydofractured wells in W. Siberia
2002 2003
Sibneft trials horizontal wells at Yarainer
TNK-BP begins to exmploy hyraulic fracturing to improve reservoir performance Additional flow from Rosneft hydofractured wells at Priobskoye
2004
Early 2000s peak in incremental production from Lukoil horizontal wells
2005
Marathon fracs horizontal wells in Siberia
2006
Lukoil trials acid fracutring at 12 cis-Ural fields TNK focusses on water-flooding, side-tracks and horizontals to increase output
2007 2008 2009
Schlumberger rolls out HiWay fracturing system
2010
Additional well productivity from fiber-frac technology used at TNK's Uvat field
2011
Additional flow from Rosneft multi-fracced horizontal wells at Priobskoye (steady state production)
2012 0
500
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Incremental Production from Application of Technology (bpd)
4000
4500
Source: Company Reports and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
21
Water management - y-o-y changes in water cut are a greater predictor of decline rates and these increases have been elevated recently
40%
y-o-y Change in Production
30% 20% 10%
0% -10% -20%
-30% -40% -5%
0%
5% 10% y-o-y Change in Water Cut (%)
15%
20%
Source: Company Reports and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
22
y-o-y Change in Field Production (%)
Brownfield activity – Around 10 wells on average tends to stabilise y-o-y production at Russian fields 2%
1.6%
1.5%
10-25
10-100
0.9%
1%
0% -1% -1.0% -2% -3% -4%
-3.9%
-3.9%
0-5
3-7
-5% 5-10
7-12
Average YoY Change in Production per Field (%)
y-o-y Change in Number of Wells (count)
15% 10%
5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30%
0
1 2 3 4 Number of New Wells Completed in Calendar Year U.S. Gulf of Mexico
Norway
U.K. North Sea
5+
Russia
Source: Company Reports and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
23
MSHF - Russian learning curves have matured with recent wells, fracs, horizontals and sidetracks all yielding productivity below peak
919
1,148
Average Flow Rate Per Well (bpd)
1,000
325
365
268
139 137.1 100 79
74.0
10
10
100
1000
10000
Cumulative Wells Drilled New wells
Drilling of horizontal wells
Drilling of sidetracks
Hydrofracturing, wells
Source: Company Reports and Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
24
Unconventionals - Top 15 shale plays globally by recoverable resource The Bazhenov shale is the principal source rock for 85% of the oil in West Siberia, which comprises 70% of Russia's oil production today
Schublik
Bazhenov Duvernay Maikop Bakken
Monterey
Shahejie
Eagle Ford
Kazdhumi
Argiles Radioactive Tanezzuft
Pabdeh Najmah-Naokelekan
Vaca Muerta
Source: Neftex, Company Reports, Bernstein Analysis BernsteinResearch.com
25
2000km
From a bird’s eye view Russia’s tight oil could be very significant (2.3Mkm2)
1700km
Bazhenov Oil Shale Formation
Source: Neftex, Company Reports, Bernstein Analysis BernsteinResearch.com
26
How easy will it be to manufacture Russian tight oil ?
Source: Bernstein BernsteinResearch.com
27
Khanty-Mansiysk in May 2013
Source: Bernstein BernsteinResearch.com
28
Getting equipment from A to B along the River Ob
Source: Bernstein BernsteinResearch.com
29
Approaching a tight oil drilling pad
Source: Bernstein BernsteinResearch.com
30
Getting closer to the well-site
Source: Bernstein BernsteinResearch.com
31
Drilling Pad for Well 153 in the Bazhenov tight oil play
Source: Bernstein BernsteinResearch.com
32
Oil is flowing from the Bashenov
Source: Bernstein BernsteinResearch.com
33
Russian versus a US frac job
Source: Weir Group and Bernstein BernsteinResearch.com
34
However the wells are vertical, unfracced and being sourced through a 1km network of natural fractures identified via seismic
Source: Company Reports BernsteinResearch.com
35
A "Semi-Conventional Well" in the Bazhenov could be worth $4.5M (predrill, i.e., c$7/boe) and $7.7M with tax-breaks and $110/bbl oil
16
14
NPV / Well ($M)
12 10 7.7
8 6 4
4.5
2 0 70 $/bbl
80 $/bbl
90 $/bbl
100 $/bbl
110 $/bbl
120 $/bbl
130 $/bbl
140 $/bbl
Oil Price Assumption
0% MET Discount 0% 40% MET Discount 40.0% 80% MET Discount 80.0%
20% MET Discount 20.0% 60% MET Discount 60.0% 100% MET Discount 100.0%
Source: Bernstein Estimates BernsteinResearch.com
36
Conclusions • Production growth is challenging and increasingly capital intensive • Exploration is not delivering sufficient resource additions
• New technology has been tried but more is needed • Shale/tight oil works in theory but political support needed
BernsteinResearch.com
37
Disclosure Appendix
BernsteinResearch.com
38
Disclosure Appendix SRO REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" relate to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, and Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, collectively.
Bernstein analysts are compensated based on aggregate contributions to the research franchise as measured by account penetration, productivity and proactivity of investment ideas. No analysts are compensated based on performance in, or contributions to, generating investment banking revenues. Bernstein rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 6-12 months versus the S&P 500 for stocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the MSCI Pan Europe Index for stocks listed on the European exchanges (except for Russian companies), versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for Russian companies and stocks listed on emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacific region, and versus the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan) exchanges - unless otherwise specified. We have three categories of ratings: Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead. Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp in the year ahead. Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead. Not Rated: The stock Rating, Target Price and estimates (if any) have been suspended temporarily. As of 02/03/2011, Bernstein's ratings were distributed as follows: Outperform - 42.9% (1.6% banking clients) ; Market-Perform - 49.4% (1.4% banking clients); Underperform - 7.7% (0.0% banking clients); Not Rated - 0.0% (0.0% banking clients). The numbers in parentheses represent the percentage of companies in each category to whom Bernstein provided investment banking services within the last twelve (12) months. David Vos maintains a long position in Cadogan Petroleum (CAD.LN) Accounts over which Bernstein and/or their affiliates exercise investment discretion own more than 1% of the outstanding common stock of the following companies BG/.LN / BG Group PLC, PMO.LN / Premier Oil PLC, TLW.LN / Tullow Oil PLC, BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, FP.FP / TotalFinaElf SA, TOT / Total SA, RDS/A / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDS/B / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC. The following companies are or during the past twelve (12) months were clients of Bernstein, which provided non-investment banking-securities related services and received compensation for such services BG/.LN / BG Group PLC, BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, FP.FP / TotalFinaElf SA, TOT / Total SA. In the next three (3) months, Bernstein or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from OGZD.LI / Gazprom OAO, LKOD.LI / LUKOIL, ROSN.LI / Rosneft Oil Co, NVTK.LI / NovaTek OAO, SGGD.LI / Surgutneftegaz, BG/.LN / BG Group PLC, CNE.LN / Cairn Energy PLC, GALP.PL / Galp Energia SGPS SA, PMO.LN / Premier Oil PLC, TLW.LN / Tullow Oil PLC, BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC, E / ENI SpA, EAD.FP / European Aeronautic Defense, ENI.IM / ENI SpA, FP.FP / TotalFinaElf SA, TOT / Total SA, RDS/A / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDS/B / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC. This research publication covers six or more companies. For price chart disclosures, please visit www.bernsteinresearch.com, you can also write to either: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC, Director of Compliance, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10105 or Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, Director of Compliance, Devonshire House, One Mayfair Place, London W1J 8SB, United Kingdom; or Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, Director of Compliance, Suite 3401, 34th Floor, One IFC, One Harbour View Street, Central, Hong Kong.
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39
12-Month Rating History as of 02/06/2011 Ticker
Rating Changes
BG/.LN BP BP/.LN CNE.LN E EAD.FP ENI.IM FP.FP GALP.PL LKOD.LI NVTK.LI OGZD.LI PMO.LN RDS/A RDS/B RDSA.LN RDSA.NA RDSB.LN RDSB.NA ROSN.LI SGGD.LI STL.NO TLW.LN TOT
O (IC) 01/22/09 M (IC) 08/03/10 M (IC) 08/03/10 O (IC) 01/22/09 O (IC) 08/03/10 O (RC) 12/17/09 O (IC) 08/03/10 O (IC) 08/03/10 O (RC) 05/26/10 U (IC) 01/15/09 O (IC) 01/15/09 O (RC) 07/16/09 O (RC) 02/19/10 O (IC) 08/03/10 O (IC) 08/03/10 O (IC) 08/03/10 O (IC) 08/03/10 O (IC) 08/03/10 O (IC) 08/03/10 U (IC) 01/15/09 U (IC) 01/15/09 M (IC) 01/22/09 O (IC) 01/22/09 O (IC) 08/03/10
O (DC) 08/02/10 O (DC) 08/02/10
O (RC) 05/10/10 O (RC) 05/10/10
M (RC) 03/03/09 M (RC) 03/03/09
O (DC) 08/02/10
O (RC) 11/21/08
O (DC) 08/02/10 M (DC) 08/02/10 M (IC) 01/22/09
O (RC) 11/21/08 M (RC) 02/16/10
O (IC) 05/30/03
M (IC) 01/22/09 O (DC) 08/02/10 O (DC) 08/02/10 O (DC) 08/02/10 O (DC) 08/02/10 O (DC) 08/02/10 O (DC) 08/02/10
O (RC) 02/16/10 O (RC) 02/16/10 O (RC) 02/16/10 O (RC) 02/16/10 O (RC) 02/16/10 O (RC) 02/16/10
M (RC) 03/16/09 M (RC) 03/16/09 M (RC) 03/16/09 M (RC) 03/16/09 M (RC) 03/16/09 M (RC) 03/16/09
M (DC) 08/02/10
M (RC) 02/16/10
O (IC) 05/30/03
Rating Guide: O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, N - Not Rated Rating Actions: IC - Initiated Coverage, DC - Dropped Coverage, RC - Rating Change
OTHER DISCLOSURES A price movement of a security which may be temporary will not necessarily trigger a recommendation change. Bernstein will advise as and when coverage of securities commences and ceases. Bernstein has no policy or standard as to the frequency of any updates or changes to its coverage policies. Although the definition and application of these methods are based on generally accepted industry practices and models, please note that there is a range of reasonable variations within these models. The application of models typically depends on forecasts of a range of economic variables, which may include, but not limited to, interest rates, exchange rates, earnings, cash flows and risk factors that are subject to uncertainty and also may change over time. Any valuation is dependent upon the subjective opinion of the analysts carrying out this valuation. This document may not be passed on to any person in the United Kingdom (i) who is a retail client (ii) unless that person or entity qualifies as an authorised person or exempt person within the meaning of section 19 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (the "Act"), or qualifies as a person to whom the financial promotion restriction imposed by the Act does not apply by virtue of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, or is a person classified as an "professional client" for the purposes of the Conduct of Business Rules of the Financial Services Authority.
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