they believed

---

S E C R E T

GPS

600

DESKBY 060900Z FM WASHINGTON

0523552 SEP 79

TO IMMEDIATE FGO TELEGRAM NO 2553 OF 5 SEPTEMBER INFO PRIORITY CABINET OFFICE

(FOR J I S ) ,

HAVANA, UKDEL NATO,

MQDUK (DSi?>, MOSCOW. MY IMMEDIATELY PRECEEDING TELEGRAMi SOVIET GROUND FORCES IN CUBA. 1» STATE DEPARTMENT CONTACTS GAVE US TODAY THE FOLLOWING AMPLIFICATION TO THE POINTS MADE BY VANCE AT HIS

PRESS CONFERENCE.

2. UNTIL THIS YEAR US EVIDENCE OF THE SOVIET PRESENCE IN CUBA HAD BEEN FRAGMENTARY, ALTHOUGH THEY HAD KNOW:! OF THE SOVIET FOR SOME TIME.

ADVISERS

IN THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY THEY BEGAN TO ESTABLISH

THAT THE SOVIET FORCES WERE ORGANISED AS A COHERENT MILITARY UN IT C F THE SOVIET ARMY. ALTHOUGH FULL THE INTETEIULK'JL \ZcK

INFORMATION WAS STILL

UNAVAILABLE,

COMMUNITY HAD REACHED A CONSENSUS IN THE LAST

OF JULY THAT THE FORCE WAS AN ORGANISED COMBAT UNIT

COMMANDED BY RUSSIANS FOR RUSSIAN PURPOSES (WHICH REMAIN UNCLEAR)* FURTHER

INFORMATION WAS CONTINUING TO BE FITTED INTO THE JIGSAW,

AND MORE AND MORE FACTS WERE BEING UNEARTHED FROM THE ARCHIVES : .

:

.

[TTi E

••

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:,

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: .' K 1 p WE ".

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WITH SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHY AND OTHER SOURCES HAD FURTHER CLARIFIED THE PICTURE.

"

3.

IN REVEALING THE

THE TIMING OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S ACTION

NEW APPRECIATION (A)

.(B)

WAS DICTATED BY TWO MAJOR AND © N | MINOR FACTORS:

THE NEWS THAT THE INFORMATION HAD BEEN LEAKED ALMOST IN

ENTIRETY OF 10

'

TO THE WEEKLY U . S .

MAGAZINE QUOTE AVIATION WEEK AND SPACE

SEPTEMBER, SINCE THEY JUST MISSED LAST WEEK'S THE PRESSURE FROM SENATOR STONE WHO,

DEADLINE).

IN ADDITION TO THE

VANCE LETTER OF 27 JULY, HAD ALSO BEEN GIVEN A CLASSIFIED (C)

ITS

BRIEFING.

*yND THE ADM IN ISTRATION'S COMMITMENT "0 ^PF*I COV^RNM^NT

S E C R E T

/THEY BELIEVED

S

THEY

BELIEVED

HAVE

MADE

ST

ASSESSMENT. LINKAGE AND

A

8

STATE

ACCEPT

FOR T H E SALT

( U S FAILURES O F SOVIET THAT

PROCEED, BEGAN

WITH

HAVE

TNZ

IN

THEIR

MORE

PRIVATE

ISSUE

THE

WILL

M \ G 23

MAJOR

;

POSE

DAY

WEEKEND

THEY IF

THIS

WAS

DISCLOSURES

B U T HOPS

THEY

AS PROVIDING

LEVF:RAGE

( $ R

THAT

QUOTE

AMY

FORTUITOUS

WITH

TOUGH

WILL

POSE

WILL

3 E

T H E MAIM

WITH

LINS,

TO

IN

THEY RESPONSE

TO S E E RATIFICATION

T H E RUSSIANS EMBASSY

PROBLEM

A HELPFUL

DESIRE

TEMPORARY,

ASSURANCES

HOWEVER,

TO PRODUCE

UNTIL

A MONTH

B U T VANCE

?

ARE CLEARLY

FRESH

ORDER.

IN

RETURN

NOW (WHICH

AGO)

WILL

B E

T H E ADDRESSING

AND LOOKING

FOR A

HOPED

WAS THEIR,

•••

TO REDUCE IT

O F F WITHOUT GROUND

•:,

.

T H E IDEA

y-y~i

EXCITEMENT

IS UNLIKELY

TO

CAUSING IN A A PK-

THAT T H E

HEARINGS,

AS FAR AS

SUCCEED.

n c > Uc<\ >jJi'

DEPARTMENTAL DISTN. EESD N All D M & CD WED DEF D CABINET OFFICE

[COPIES SENT TO NO 1 0 DOWNING ST]

2

S E C R E T

:\.V\

BEF<

O F T H E SENATE

PUBLIC

is

THIS

ALTHOUGH

FORCES

• : :• •

TO DISMISS

TO RESUMPTION

HOPE,

PASSED

O F SOVIET

THAT

RATIFICATION.

'-w-r\-

I S HARD

•. • \ ~ - y .

TO B E CONCERNED

FOR SALT

7 K E YEAR

N T T V IT

RIGHT

PROBLEMS

T H E PRESENCE

AND PRIOR

MAY HAVE

THE

ON THE LATTER S

IT

•"''<'-.

THE-NEW

EMPHASISED

SUMMIT

AT T H E SOVIET

EARLIER

DIFFICULTIES,

••;

HAVE

WOULD

RESPONSE.

5 SOU £

DIFFERENT

TWO F A C T O R S

REVEALING

TO T H E T R E A T Y ) .

AN UNDULY

:"-::/RE';T A

FIRST

CUBA^CONTRASTED

DISCUSSIONS

T H E ADMINISTRATION

:.:V/

DELAY

ON T H E L A T T E R ' S

DOBRYNIN

PRODUCTIVE

ISSUE

MAIN

T H EMINISTER

WITH

THE

CONTACTS

PROCESS

OVER

RESTS

NOT TAKEN

ISSUE

OF

TO

THAT

ADHERENCE

T H E RUSSIANS

FROM

T

UNQUOTE,

DEPARTMENT

RECOGNISE

E

O F T H E HAVANA

S E ET H E VERIFICATION

RESPECT

OF

FURTHER

:

SURMOUNT

R

COMBINATION

TO THL OPENING

STATE

C

DEPARTMENT

CO-INCIDENTAL

THEY

%

THE

IMPOSSIBLE

DIFFICULTIES

US

THAT

E

POSSIBLE.

UNCLASSIFIED DESKBY 060900Z FM WASHINGTON 0 5 2 3 5 2 Z TO

IMMEDIATE

SEP 7 9

FCO

TELEGRAM NUMBER 25~57 OF 5 SEPTEMBER INTO PRIORITY M0DUK(DS12)

JIS),

UKDEL NATO HAVANA

MOSCOW

MY T E L NO 2513 1.

CABINET OFFICE(FOR

(NOT TO A L L ) i SOVIET GROUND FORCES IN CUBA

MOST OF V A N C E ' S P R E S S CONFERENCE TODAY

TO THE S O V I E T / C U B A N

IN WASHINGTON

I S S U E . TRANSCRIPT FOLLOWS BY B A G .

OPENING STATEMENT HE CONFIRMED THAT THE

INTELLIGENCE

WAS DEVOTED

IN A E R I E F COMMUNITY

RECENTLY CONCLUDED THAT A SOVIET COMBAT FORCE WAS STATIONED

HAD

IN C U B A ,

ELEMENTS OF WHICH MIGHT HAVE BEEN THERE S I N C E THE EARLY 1970S AfLD P O S S I B L E EVEN E A R L I E R .

THE FORCE CONSISTED OF TWO TO THREE THOUSAND

PERSONNEL AND INCLUDED MOTOR ISED R I F L E B A T T A L I O N S , BATTALIONS

AND COMBAT AND S E R V I C E SUPPORT U N I T S .

SEPARATE FROM S O V I E T ADVISORY ESTIMATED TO B E BETWEEN 1500 IT,

WHICH

ALL THESE WERE

AND TECHNICAL PERSONNEL IN CUBA, AND 2 , 0 0 0 .

THE S P E C I F I C MISSION

FORCE WAS U N C L E A R . THERE WAS NO A ! R OR SEA L I F T ASSOCIATED WITH

TANK AND A R T I L L E R Y

O F THE

CAPABILITY

WOULD G I V E AN ASSAULT C A P A B I L I T Y .

THE

PRESENCE O F T H E U N I T WAS NOT COVERED B Y THE BI LATERAL US UNDER­ STANDINGS WITH THE RUSSIANS

IN 1 9 6 2 ' 0 R

1970.

BUT T H I S PRESENCE WAS

A MATTER OF S E R I O U S CONCERN, AFFECTING US RELATIONS UNION.

WITH T H E SOVIET

VANCE WOULD B E PURSUING THE MATTER WITH T H E R U S S I A N S ,

DISCUSSING

IT

AND

WITH THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE LATER

IN

THE DAY. 2, (A)

IN ANSWER T O Q U E S T I O N S ,

ADDITIONAL

POINTS

IN THE D I S C U S S I O N S TO COME WITH THE R U S S I A N S HE WOULD QUOTE

i-OT BE S A T I S F I E D NOT B E DRAWN (B)

VANCE MADE THE FOLLOWING

WITH MAINTENANCE OF THE STATUS QUO UNQUOTE, H E WOULD

INTO D E F I N I N G

FURTHER T H E L I M I T OF US REQUIREMENTS.

THE HEARINGS OH SALT R A T I F I C A T I O N

OF THEIR WOULD

FUNDAMENTAL

KEEP

SHOULD PROCEED QUOTE BECAUSE*

IMPORTANCE UNQUOTE, BUT THE

IN CLOSE CONTACT AND DISCUSSION

DISCUSSIONS ON CUBA WITH THE RUSSIANS

WITH

CONTINUED.

ADMINISTRATION THE

SENATE AS

THE

(C)

THERE WAS NO PARALLEL BETWEEN US FAILURE UNTIL NOW TO

IDENTIFY^

THE SOVIET FORCES, AND SALT VERIFICATION CAPABILITY. THE FORMER

WA^

QUOTE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO MONITOR UNQUOTE. (D)

AT THE TIME (27

JULY) OF HIS

LETTER TO SENATOR STONE (D-FLORI DA)

DENYING THAT THERE "WAS A SOVIET BASE IN CUBA OR HAD BEEN A SUBSTAN­ TIAL

INCREASE

INTELLIGENCE

IN SOVIET FORCES THERE,

IT

WAS THE CONCLUSION OF THE

COMMUNITY THAT THERE WAS NOT SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO

CONFIRM A SOVIET COMBAT PRESENCE IN CUBA. SUBSEQUENTLY ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PRODUCED A CLEARER READING OF THE SITUATION AND THIS WAS MADE AVAILABLE TO STONE AND THE RELEVANT SENATE COMMITTEES. (E)

THE US DID

CONSTITUTED

•

NOT KNOW AT PRESENT WHETHER THE SOVIET PRESENCE

A BASE. THE DISCUSSIONS WITH THE RUSSIANS

WOULD SHED

LIGHT ON T H I S . (F)

GIVEN THE CONCLUSION THAT THE SOVIET FORCES HAD BEEN IN CUBA

SINCE THE EARLY 1970S,

IT

WAS TRUE TO SAY THAT THE RUSSIANS

QUOTE NOT DONE ANYTHING SPECIAL (G)

MENTS WITH THE

IN THE LAST YEAR OR TWO UNQUOTE.

AT LEAST A FULL SUMMARY OF THE 1962 RUSSIANS.

AND 1970

AGREE­



VANCE HAD ASKED DOBRYNIN TO RETURN TO WASHINGTON AS SOON AS

POSSIBLE,

AND HOPED FOR A REPLY LATER IN THE DAY. THE MEETING WITH

DDBRYNIN WOULD PROVIDE QUOTE A SERIOUS ISSUE UNQUOTE.

(BY

REACTION TO THE US

3.



AS A RESULT OF A CURRENT REVIEW, THE ADMINISTRATION HOPED TO BE

ABLE TO PUBLISH

(H)

HAD

CHANCE TO DISCUSS THIS .

IMPLICATION VANCE DISMISSED EARLIER DISCLOSURES).



A NUMBER OF PROMINENT P O L I T I C I A N S HAVE ALREADY

SELVES

SOVIET PRESS

INJECTED T H E M ­

INTO THE DEBATE.SENATORS CHURCH ( D - l D A H O ) AND S T O N E ( D - F L O R I DA)

HAVE SPOKEN OUT STRONGLY AGAINST THE S O V I E T PRESENCE ( S E E OUR TELEGRAM UNDER R E F E R E N C E ) , BECOME

PART OF

THE

AND THE LATTER HAS URGED THAT IT

SALT R A T I F I C A T I O N DEBATE.

AND HARRY BYRD ( I — V I R G I N I A )

(R-KANSAS)

HAVE CALLED FOR^SU SP EN SIGN OF THE DEBATE

UNTIL THE S O V I E T FORCES ARE REMOVED. (R-TENNESSEE,

SENATORS DOLE

SHOULD

SENATE MINORITY LEADER BAKER

AND A P R E S I D E N T I A L CANDIDATE) TERMED THE RUSSIAN

PRESENCE A PROVOCATION AND, WHILE RESERVING JUDGEMENT ON THE P O S S I B L E

™ M P A C T ON SALT, STATED QUOTE YOU CAN'T CONSIDER UNQUOTE.

SENATE MAJORITY

SALT IN

ISOLATION

LEADER ROBERT BYRD (D-WEST VIRGINIA) HAS

ARGUED THAT THE TREATY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED ON ITS MERITS AND NOT LINKED WITH THE CUBAN PROBLEM. ANOTHER REPUBLICAN IAL CANDIDATE

(AND A FORMER DIRECTOR

PRESIDENT­

OF THE C U ) , GEORGE BUSH HAS

DEMANDED THE REMOVAL OF THE SOVIET FORCES AND ECHOED BAKER'S REMARKS ABOUT PROVOCATION.

4.

SEE Ml F T .

HENDERSON

3