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Share of US retail sales by type of store 2000
2013
Change
Grocery, food and mass
41%
41%
0%
Home, furniture, building supplies
17%
14%
-3%
Department stores
13%
5%
-8%
Clothing/ fashion/ shoes/ jewelry
9%
9%
0%
Warehouse clubs
9%
17%
+8%
Sports, books, toys
4%
2%
-2%
Electronics and appliances
4%
2%
-2%
Office supplies
2%
1%
-1%
Online retail
1%
9%
+8%
100%
100%
US eCommerce Forecast (US$B)
$263
2013
$294
2014 (F)
$325
2015 (F)
$355
2016 (F)
Source: Forrester US eCommerce Forecast, 2013-18
$385
2017 (F)
$414
2018 (F)
1. The Mobile Conversion Conundrum August 2013
August 2014
Desktop/ Laptop
3.1%
2.7%
Tablet
2.1%
2.1%
Smartphone
0.8%
1.0%
Source: Adobe Digital Index
2. The Attribution Abyss "Which of the following best describes how you attribute online sales to marketing channels?"
61%
Last touch
Single Touchpoint Multi Touchpoint
4%
First touch
12%
Self-defined business rules Combination of statistically driven attribution and selfdefined business rules
9%
Proportional (i.e., even distribution)
8%
Pre-defined rules-based attribution measurements (e.g., time decay) Statistically driven attribution (e.g., regression models)
5% 1%
Source: The State of Retailing Online 2014, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research
3. A Capacity-Constrained Q4 Timeframe
Total Days
Percent of online sales during peak
2012-2013 Growth
Pre-11/ 25
24
26%
25%
11/ 25-12/ 7 (Thanksgiving, Cyber Week)
13
25%
15%
12/ 8-12/ 24
17
40%
15%
Post 12/ 24
7
9%
10%
Average daily eCommerce package volume (non-peak): 7MM Average daily eCommerce package volume (peak): 46MM
Which types of deals did you take advantage of for today’s purchase? Timeframe
Offer
2011
2012
2013
Free shipping no threshold
20%
20%
32%
Free shipping with threshold
25%
23%
18%
Free shipping no threshold
26%
24%
40%
Free shipping with threshold
29%
27%
21%
Free shipping no threshold
33%
29%
32%
Free shipping with threshold
26%
27%
28%
Free shipping no threshold
23%
23%
25%
Free shipping with threshold
25%
25%
25%
Pre-Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving Weekend
Cyber Monday
Cyber Week
Base: recent online buyers Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Flash studies