US eCommerce Forecast (US$B)


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Share of US retail sales by type of store 2000

2013

Change

Grocery, food and mass

41%

41%

0%

Home, furniture, building supplies

17%

14%

-3%

Department stores

13%

5%

-8%

Clothing/ fashion/ shoes/ jewelry

9%

9%

0%

Warehouse clubs

9%

17%

+8%

Sports, books, toys

4%

2%

-2%

Electronics and appliances

4%

2%

-2%

Office supplies

2%

1%

-1%

Online retail

1%

9%

+8%

100%

100%

US eCommerce Forecast (US$B)

$263

2013

$294

2014 (F)

$325

2015 (F)

$355

2016 (F)

Source: Forrester US eCommerce Forecast, 2013-18

$385

2017 (F)

$414

2018 (F)

1. The Mobile Conversion Conundrum August 2013

August 2014

Desktop/ Laptop

3.1%

2.7%

Tablet

2.1%

2.1%

Smartphone

0.8%

1.0%

Source: Adobe Digital Index

2. The Attribution Abyss "Which of the following best describes how you attribute online sales to marketing channels?"

61%

Last touch

Single Touchpoint Multi Touchpoint

4%

First touch

12%

Self-defined business rules Combination of statistically driven attribution and selfdefined business rules

9%

Proportional (i.e., even distribution)

8%

Pre-defined rules-based attribution measurements (e.g., time decay) Statistically driven attribution (e.g., regression models)

5% 1%

Source: The State of Retailing Online 2014, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research

3. A Capacity-Constrained Q4 Timeframe

Total Days

Percent of online sales during peak

2012-2013 Growth

Pre-11/ 25

24

26%

25%

11/ 25-12/ 7 (Thanksgiving, Cyber Week)

13

25%

15%

12/ 8-12/ 24

17

40%

15%

Post 12/ 24

7

9%

10%

Average daily eCommerce package volume (non-peak): 7MM Average daily eCommerce package volume (peak): 46MM

Which types of deals did you take advantage of for today’s purchase? Timeframe

Offer

2011

2012

2013

Free shipping no threshold

20%

20%

32%

Free shipping with threshold

25%

23%

18%

Free shipping no threshold

26%

24%

40%

Free shipping with threshold

29%

27%

21%

Free shipping no threshold

33%

29%

32%

Free shipping with threshold

26%

27%

28%

Free shipping no threshold

23%

23%

25%

Free shipping with threshold

25%

25%

25%

Pre-Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving Weekend

Cyber Monday

Cyber Week

Base: recent online buyers Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Flash studies