Washington County Comprehensive Needs Assessment Maxfield Research Inc. September 2013
Washington County Housing and Redevelopment Authority
Study Findings Key Points Growing population and employment Worker wages are 30% lower than the Metro average Workers cannot afford to live in the county Highest median rent ($1,045) in the Metro 47% of all renters and 83% of low income renters pay more than 30% of income on housing costs Future demand for affordable housing is well above the historic production
HRA Background The Washington County HRA: Helping Communities Thrive Through innovation, the Washington County Housing and Redevelopment Authority promotes community and economic development, and provides and maintains affordable, decent and safe housing opportunities in Washington County.
HRA Programs Homeowner -ship
Rental Assistance
Foreclosure Prevention
HRA
Affordable Housing
Community Development
Housing Study Purpose – independent third party analysis of county housing market – Document housing needs – Guide HRA strategic planning – Assist with funding applications – Define relationship between housing and economic development
5
Submarket Map 10 submarkets East vs. West
Demographics Washington County Population & Households 1980-2030 350,000
322,070
300,000
282,575 238,136
250,000 201,130
200,000
Population
145,896
150,000
122,930
113,571
105,920 87,855
100,000 50,000
71,462 35,001
49,846
Census 1980
Census 1990
Census 2000
Census 2010
Forecast 2020
Forecast 2030
Households
Demographic Trends Projection 2013-2030 – Add 84,000 population & 35,000 households – Additional household growth drives housing demand
Fewer people in each household – 1980: 3.24 – 2010: 2.71 – 2030: 2.62
General occupancy demand 2013-2030 – Add 30,900 owned, 7,908 rental – Senior demand a separate calculation
Demographic Trends Greater rental demand than in past – General shift from homeowner to rental Stricter mortgage underwriting Rental seen as less commitment & risk
– Senior (age 55-74) Fastest growing demographic
Downsize to rental
– Millennials Largest of all cohorts later this decade Lifestyle preferences favor rental more than prior generations
High median household income ($76,800 in 2013) – One of state’s wealthiest – Median homeowner makes 78% more than median renter $91,300 (owner) vs. $51,400 (renter)
Employment Projected employment – Stronger than 20002010 – Not as strong as 1990’s
Washington County Total Employment 90,000 80,000
85,695
70,000 67,551
60,000
71,897
50,000 40,000
County Employment Change
1990-2010 2010-2020
No.
%
32,793
+84%
13,798
+19%
30,000
39,104
20,000 10,000 1990
2000
2010
Forecast 2020
Employment 73,684 total jobs – More households than jobs – Four jobs for every five households
Largest employers – Education & Health Services – Trade (retail), Transportation Utilities
Highest concentration – Leisure & Hospitality – Trade, Trans. Utilities
Employment Worker profile higher proportion Ed. Services, Retail, Accommodation sectors – Typically low wage sectors
Employed Resident lower percentage in main sectors
Jobs by Sector 70%
60% 10% 50% 7%
12% Accomodation & Food Service
40% 9%
Educational Services 11%
30%
Manufacturing Retail Trade
9%
Health Care & Soc. Assist. 20%
14% 10%
10% 14%
15%
Employed Resident
Worker in Co.
0%
Wages County wages lower than Metro for all sectors Average wage is 30% less than Metro Average Weekly Wages 2012 Wage
2011-12
Weekly Annual Change County Metro
$766 $39,832
+1.7%
$1,076 $55,952
+3.0%
Wages
Workers in the county earn much less than residents County median household income $76,800 Worker annual wage $39,800 35% more residents over $40k/year 25% more workers under Compared to Metro counties – Lowest percent in top bracket – Highest percent in bottom bracket
Annual Earnings Level 100% 90% 37%
80% 50% 70% 60%
>$40,000
50% 40%
32%
<$15,000
26%
30% 20% 32%
10%
24%
0% Employed Resident
$15,000-$40,000
Worker in County
Housing Affordability Workers in Washington County can’t afford to live here – – – –
Low wage rates Average annual wage for worker: $39,822 Income to afford average rent: $44,200 ($1,105 rent) Occupations that can not afford average county rent:
Retail sales associate Teacher Social worker Janitor
Housing Affordability Highest median rent in the Metro: $1,045 – Metro median $858
High cost burden rates – 47% of renters pay more than 30% of household income on housing 7,039 households. (8% of all county households)
– 82% of renters have incomes below $35,000 5,229 households
Findings – County
Housing InventoryGeneral Occupancy Existing General Occupancy Rental Inventory Properties
Units
Market Rate
55
5,196
Affordable
34
2,147
Total
89
7,343
Average Market Rate Rent (July 2013) Washington County 1 BR
$868
2 BR
$1,071
3 BR
$1,482
Housing Inventory – Senior Housing Existing Senior Housing Inventory Properties
Units
Active Adult
7
298
Congregate
9
741
Assisted Living
14
595
Memory Care
14
326
Affordable
22
1,177
Total*
66
3,137
* Some properties offer multiples service levels
Affordable Housing Production
3,324 units, 56 properties
Historic Affordable Housing Production vs. Projected Demand 3,000
2,718
2,500
Annual production average: 62 units
1,903
2,000
Historic Production 1,500 1,033 1,000
Anticipated annual demand: 275 units
Historic Average
1,013 772 620 434
500
255 42
-
145
64
Projected Demand
Projected Demand Housing Demand 2013-2030 for All Types
Senior
5,305
General Occupancy
7,908
For Sale
30,982
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Projected Demand Housing Demand 2013-2030 for Rental Units Affordable
Gen. Occ. Rental
Senior
975
Market Rental
3,750
Affordable
3,646
Market
4,262 -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Questions/Follow-Up Bill Lightner Project Manager
[email protected] (651) 202-2820 www.wchra.com
