Water wholesale - Ofwat

---

Water wholesale Company

Plan £m

Anglian

1,773

FD threshold £m 1,719

Gap £m 54

Plan v AMP5 +6%

Basic cost Policy Unmodelled Deep dive threshold additions costs delta added £m £m £m £m 1,417

268

3%

Dŵr Cymru

1,240

1,236

4

-8%

1,091

127

0%

Deep dive added £m

Deep dive added £m

Deep dive added £m

Deep dive added £m

Deep dive Pre cap FD added threshold £m £m

(33%)

(6%)

15

17

1

(33%)

selective meters

Overlap

18

Cap £m

FD threshold £m

Deep Dives not added £m

Deep Dives not added £m

Deep Dives not added £m

Deep Dives not added £m

Deep Dives not added £m

Deep Dives not added £m

insufficient evidence immaterial after IA 8 (19-11) * 6 (31-24) electrical resilience unmodelled adjustment

1,719

1,719

1,236

1,236

None

None

None

None

None

None

1,353

1,353

None

None

None

None

None

None

2,843

2,843

741

741

(33%) (33%)

Northumbrian

1,362

1,353

9

-2%

1,198

154

1%

Severn Trent

2,930

2,843

87

+17%

2,251

300

3%

South West

684

741

-57

816

769

47

+7%

591

132

-6%

696

75

6%

Thames

3,249

3,411

-162

+10%

3,483

316

-5%

United Utilities

2,404

2,395

9

-3%

1,949

338

0%

Wessex

707

682

25

+11%

463

95

4%

Yorkshire

1,487

1,560

-74

7

(33%)

SDB (100%-IA)

(100%-IA)

0

242

50

(33%)

-8%

Southern

-6

+4%

1,370

238

-5%

Bham resilience Bham Comm risk (100%-IA)

0

18

(33%)

N Plymouth wtw (33%)

(33%)

0

6

-7

(33%)

fWRMP (33%)

meter modelling

-19 fWRMP (100%-IA)

0

102

5

(33%)

Thirlmere (100%-IA)

fWRMP (33%)

9

108

7

(33%)

Grid (33%)

SDB

-12

-35 fWRMP

769 -343

3,411

1,034

1,091

-57

+1%

1,015

86

-5%

Bristol

541

409

132

+8%

315

30

32%

(33%)

2,395

2,395

682

682

103

99

4

+25%

73

7

4%

Portsmouth

137

142

-5

+7%

128

13

-3%

-10

1

(33%)

Overlap (33%)

(100%)

(100%-IA)

9

33

21

6

-5

(33%)

enh adjustm't

base costs

Canal Trust

fWRMP

1,560

1,560

1,091

1,091

409

409

(33%)

Sembcorp Bournemouth

134

South East

810

133

2

+0%

111

18

1%

785

25

+7%

699

83

3%

South Staffordshire

411

Sutton & East Surrey

234

Industry

399

12

+8%

357

41

3%

227

7

+7%

185

19

3%

20,057

19,996

62

(100%-IA)

(100%-IA)

(100%)

(100%-IA)

(100%-IA)

-1

12

6

1

1

0

0

(33%)

Legacy wtw (33%)

serv reservoirs

scale effects

reservoir safety

TMA permits

SDB

(100%)

(33%)

(33%)

-1

2

(33%)

SDB (33%)

+5%

17,393

2,340

0%

Policy additions comprise rates, pension deficit, 3rd party costs and open market costs * denotes included within the unmodelled costs category

99

99

142

142

133

3

2

1

1

Fawley (67%)

mains renewal

meter variable

SDB

-8

11

0

(33%)

SDB (67%)

Overlap

-3

4

(33%)

SDB (100%)

(33% - IA)

-2

23

2

133

(6%)

85

9

6

5

Woolman's Wood

mains length

population

energy

None

200 (max) geographical factors insufficient evidence insufficient evidence 15

785

785

399

399

227 8

-4

11 real time monitoring (base)

None

None

None

None

None

immaterial

immaterial after IA

immaterial after IA

immaterial after IA

immaterial after IA

0 (53-53)

0 (25-25)

0 (24-24)

0 (18-18) karstic water universal metering lead pipes wtw x 2 reservoir x 2 insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence 1

82 (max) 63 (75-13 IA) 19 (29-10 IA) * 43 various modelling capital maintenance Cheddar 2 reservoir water deterioration insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence

2 (3-1 IA) mains renewal

1

1

1

treatment complexity

sludge handling

Wrexham ps

None

None

None

None

immaterial after IA

insufficient evidence

0

3

1 NEP insufficient evidence

227

water softening pumping head

533

insufficient evidence

10

insufficient evidence insufficient evidence

-2

-21

10

11 (13-2 IA) water treatment

7 (8-1 IA) Purton & Littleton

None

None

5 (6-1 IA) 5 (13-8 IA) 3 (4-1 IA) 3 Bedminster res growth traffic congestion customer mins lost insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence

(33%)

(33%)

(33%)

4

upstream innovation carbon (CRC) insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence insufficient evidence

181

explanatory v'bles

Bristol (cont'd) Dee Valley

14 *

covered by IA 0 (20-20 IA) catchment mgt

cap calculation insufficient evidence

(6%)

Affinity

25

insufficient evidence covered by IA 0 (41-41 IA) 0 (22-22 IA) NI Maintenance Bham resil'nce maint insufficient evidence insufficient evidence

model WM3 removal planned interruptions insufficient evidence

3,754

-26 (33%)

(33%)

769

insufficient evidence 53 (58-5 IA) * other resilience insufficient evidence 14 (24-10) * water deterioration insufficient evidence

20,338

-343

19,996

1 leakage immaterial after IA

16 (53-36 IA) 0 (9-9 IA) zonal strategy complex treatment insufficient evidence immaterial after IA 9*

2 (15-13 IA)

2 (11-10 IA)

n/a

unmodelled costs immaterial after IA

maintenance

power costs

materiality & IAs

0 (2-2 IA) streetworks costs

Wastewater wholesale Company

Plan £m

FD threshold £m

Gap

Plan v AMP5

£m

Basic cost Policy Unmodelled Pvte sewage threshold additions costs delta PS £m £m £m £m

NEP5 £m

Pvte sewer Deep dive model delta added £m £m

Deep dive added £m

Deep dive added £m

Deep dive added £m

Deep dive added £m

FD threshold £m

Cap £m

FD threshold £m

Deep Dives not added £m

Deep Dives not added £m

Deep Dives not added £m

Deep Dives not added £m

(100%-IA)

Anglian

2,518

2,559

-41

+17%

2,196

179

-2%

Dŵr Cymru

1,329

1,370

-41

+9%

1,211

59

-3%

-19

67

107

6

23

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

growth

13

23

65

0

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

-17

10

9

-6

6

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

Whitburn

2,559

2,559

40 treatment growth insufficient evidence

1,370

19 * unmodelled costs insufficient evidence

insufficient evidence

14 (37-23)

8 (14-6 IA) *

7 (25-18 IA) *

private sewer ps

NEP conservation

Llanelli/Gowerton

1,026

None

None

None

None

2,791

None

None

None

None

None

1,370

(100%)

Northumbrian

1,011

1,026

-16

+5%

948

75

-2%

Severn Trent

2,658

2,791

-133

+7%

2,634

164

-5%

1,026 2,992

-17

36

183

-7

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

-10

19

49

3

-8

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

AMP5 adj (100%)

(100%)

(100%-IA)

(100%-IA)

0

20

129

-4

38

36

15

15

(100%)

(100%)

(100%-IA)

(100%)

Thanet sewers (100%)

-63

94

130

-2

408

200

75

91

1

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

Tideway

Deephams (100%-IA)

Lee Tunnel (100%)

Counters Creek (100%-IA)

Overlap (10%)

-201

(100%)

South West

898

895

3

+12%

790

51

0%

Southern

1,929

1,890

39

+0%

1,522

106

2%

Thames

4,161

4,232

incl TT

Thames

-23%

3,059

239

-2%

3,757

3,824

excl TT

United Utilities

-71 -67

-17%

3,059

239

-2%

3,112

2,933

179

-13%

2,275

167

6%

insufficient evidence

895

Woolston stw Millbrook sludge bathing waters (100%-IA) (100%) (100%-IA)

Wessex

1,131

1,099

32

+30%

890

66

3%

Yorkshire

1,976

1,971

5

+9%

1,643

127

0%

13

94

130

-2

200

75

91

1

(100%)

(100%)

(100%) (100%-IA)

Deephams (100%-IA)

Lee Tunnel (100%-IA)

Counters Creek (100%-IA)

Overlap (100%)

0

56

158

1

91

48

25

61

28

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

biodiversity

Oldham/Royton (100%)

shellfish (10%)

3

30

64

7

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

0

21

180

1

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

(100%)

20

2

(100%-IA)

(100%-IA)

base costs (100%)

Overlap

(100%-IA)

18

12

6

2

N Bristol sewer sewer flooding carbon f'print

1,890

1,890

4,232

4,232

Peacehaven (10%)

-63

United Utilities (cont'd)

3,824

3,824

2,933

2,933

1,099

1,099

N removal model

None

None

None

competition insufficient evidence

insufficient evidence

immaterial after IA

168

19 (46-27 IA) *

9 (26-17 IA)

base costs

P removal at ASPs

chem & P trials

insufficient evidence

insufficient evidence

insufficient evidence

32 (56-24 IA)

21

12 (14-2 IA)

8

8

stw growth explanatory variables real time monitoring (base) insufficient evidence

1,971

1,971

18 Withernsea wwtw

20,767

-43

-2%

17,167

1,234

-110

375

1,074

-1

578

296

122

189

44

20,968

-201

20,767

Industry

20,319

20,358

-39

0%

17,167

1,234

-110

375

1,074

-1

170

296

122

189

44

20,559

-201

20,358

0%

downstream innovation

competition insufficient evidence

20,723

excl TT

0 (9-9IA)

carbon (CRC)

insufficient evidence

Industry

0%

immaterial after IA

7

(100%)

(100%)

int't discharges Davyhulme enh

895

Policy additions comprise rates, pension deficit, 3rd party costs and open market costs * denotes included within the unmodelled costs category TMS inc TT includes Tideway Tunnel costs but does not include Infrastructure Provider costs: TMS excl TT excludes Infrastructure Provider and Tideway Tunnel costs - however Lee Tunnel and any other Tideway linked costs are included The cost threshold amount for TMS' Tideway Tunnel (£408m) is greater than that included in TMS' plan (£404m). This is because TMS' plan assumes a cost less than the central estimate together with a broadly scoped uncertainty mechanism. We have rejected the company's proposed uncertainty mechanism but included within our estimate of the efficient level of costs an uplift to reflect a central view.